27Feb/150

LTE trends

Frederic PUJOL
Radio Technologies & Spectrum Practice Manager - IDATE

IDATE announces 2.3 billion LTE subscriptions worldwide by the end of 2018, generating revenue of close to €700 billion

 

IDATE forecasts than more than 500 million LTE subscriptions worldwide, representing 7% of total SIM cards (Q4 2014):
- Top three countries for LTE subscriptions: USA, Japan, South Korea at end of 2013 and June 2014.
- China jumps into fourth place mid-2014, expected to rank second at end 2014.
- USA represented 45% of the total in 2013 and will account for 38% end 2014.

Total LTE revenues are expected to more than double in 2014. They tripled in 2013:
- IDATE expects 160 billion EUR in 2014, 11% of total mobile revenues.

Country leaders have now reached (or almost reached) nationwide LTE population coverage: Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia and USA.

By the end of 2018 we forecast, overall, there will be more than two billion LTE subscriptions worldwide (2.3 billion) or 29% of total SIM cards.

In terms of technology, 2014 is the year of:
- LTE-LTE-Advanced features deployment, especially carrier aggregation (LTE-A launched in June 2013 by SK Telecom);
- VoLTE services introduction;
- First LTE broadcast deployment.

LTE subscription forecasts, 2014-2018 (million)

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Top 10 LTE markets by subscriber numbers (million, estimates in italics), mid-2014

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LTE coverage (% of the population, mid-2014)

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Source: IDATE, in World LTE market, December 2014

IDATE publishes a range of reports on the core issues surrounding mobile market technologies and services around the globe:

  • VoLTE
  • LTE USA
  • World Mobile Spectrum
  • New Frequency Band Spectrum
  • World LTE market
  • M2M
  • Wearables
  • Mobile Advertising
Filed under: LTE, Mobile No Comments
11Feb/150

Ultra-fast broadband 14.6 million FTTH/B subscribers in the EU at end 2014

CHAILLOU_Valérie
Valérie CHAILLOU Head of Research, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE

Accelerated growth in FTTH/B coverage from incumbents and enhancement in competition from new entrants, even in mature markets

 

In 2014, the dynamism of European markets (EU-35) was impressive: the number of subscribers reported the highest growth since end 2010 (nearly 55% increase). In terms of coverage, the increase reached 43%. This dynamism is led by countries such as Spain, where players have clearly played an important role and finally overpassed their initial objectives. There were nearly 14.6 million FTTH/B subscribers and more than 59 million homes passed in the EU-35 at end 2014.

In Spain, the incumbent Telefonica has decided to accelerate its rollouts aiming at covering 10 million households at end year, compared to less than 4 million at end 2013. This impressive growth and associated commercial strategy had a concrete impact on the Spanish market where, during the year, there were nearly 800,000 new FTTH subscribers.

Another noteworthy country is Romania where the leading players have decided to change their strategy and finally deploy FTTH/B when they were firstly focused on FTTx/LAN architecture in previous years. Therefore, the number of subscribers has considerably increased taking into account a total churn from end users. Those countries are followed by France, Turkey and the Netherlands (where, respectively, 25%, 24% and 39% of FTTH/B subscribers are new 2014 subscribers).

Elsewhere, Sweden still devotes to be highlighted: the latest trend in the country is to focus more and more on the single-dwelling units market which was not the first target of players involved in FTTH/B. The demand is steadily increasing since 2013 and, even if more complex and costly to deploy, FTTH to single-dwelling units is becoming a commodity. This is even truer for local fibre network players, involved in local scale rollouts, which have devoted half of their investments in targeting single-dwelling units in 2014. The Swedish incumbent was also very active in 2014, with more than 300,000 new Homes Passed yoy and an increase of around 31% in terms of FTTH/B Broadband subscribers. Then, the competitive landscape is also moving thanks to the involvement of smaller players that have strong ambition and get involved by acquiring local fibre networks previously owned by municipalities. Such trend should help Sweden keep a leading position on the European FTTH/B market.
On other markets, FTTH/B subscriptions also increased significantly. A part from Spain, the most performing country in 2014, we can mention the Netherlands where the number of FTTH/B subscribers has increased by 65%. France, Portugal, Turkey and Switzerland have also shown steady growth, in line with the trend we had already noted in 2013, with between 32 and 79% growth rate in the subscribers basis.

In terms of players involved in FTTH/B projects, alternative carriers are still leading the way, representing a 45% of the total homes passed in EU35 at end 2014 (67% considering EU39, which shows the important role of those players in Russia and Ukraine!). Among them, we can note this year the interesting role of recently entered players in countries considered as mature such as in Sweden and the Netherlands. Most of those players are backed with investment funds that help them strengthen their FTTH/B strategies.

The number of local authorities launching FTTH/B rollout projects on their territory has decreased a little bit in 2014 but they still represent only 9% of homes passed in EU35. Few new projects have been concretely launched by local authorities noted during 2014. There are some interesting rollouts in France, still in the context of the national program for superfast broadband, but most of them are still in the very beginning of the process. They represent some 600,000 homes passed end 2014.
Then, of course, incumbents are important players in all European countries. They represent 46% of HP in EU35 at end 2014, +3% compared to 2013. Several incumbents have considerably accelerated their rollouts in 2014. As in 2013, the most dynamic is Telefonica in Spain, but with a much more impressive growth: from 1.7 new Homes Passed in 2013, Telefonica reached more than 6 million new Homes Passed in 2014. Then come Orange in France (+897,000 HP), TeliaSonera in Sweden (+416,000 HP), KPN/Reggefiber in the Netherlands (+312,000 HP) and Turk Telekom in Turkey (+300,000 HP). It is also very interested to note the quite recent involvement of Bezeq in Israel, which decided to upgrade its infrastructure to FTTB: more than 1 million homes are now passed with FTTB but no services are available yet on the network. The operator is still focused on providing VDSL2 based services to end users for the moment, but it is betting on the need for higher speed rates in the near future and it is preparing itself to be able to provide required solutions very rapidly.

Number of FTTH/B subscribers per country in Europe (countries with more than 200 K subscribers)

numberOfFTTHSubscribers-per-country-in-Europe

Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe

 

Number of FTTH/B homes passed per country in Europe (countries with more than a million homes passed)

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Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe

When enlarging the analysis to EU39, Russia and Ukraine are still very specific markets. Their respective demographic characteristics are so different from other countries that the comparison is not always very relevant. However, both markets are quite dynamic, with respectively +50 and +15% in terms of subscribers basis.
Regarding the technology deployed, Ethernet is still players’ first choice across the EU-39, and represented 66% of all FTTH/B rollouts at end 2014.
As concerns network architecture, most new deployments concerned FTTH which now represent 41% of homes passed at end 2014 (vs 34% one year ago). However, FTTB is still the favourite configuration as it allows them to avoid the issues that come with installing fibre on private property, and especially MDUs – i.e. having to negotiate with each property owner.

1 The term EU-35 refers to the EU-28 countries –Cyprus + Andorra, Iceland, Israel, Macedonia, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland and Turkey.
The EU-39 refers to the EU-35 + the four CIS Countries: Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Russia.

>> Our study about FTTH/B are interresting you ? Go on our store.

4Feb/150

Netflix: the N in GAFA-N?

JD Seval-PortraitsIDATE--83pxJean-Dominique Seval
Deputy CEOs of IDATE
FONTAINE_Gilles83pxGilles FONTAINE
Deputy CEOs of IDATE

A point of view published in Les Echos 12th of february 2015

There is quite a crowd of candidates jostling to become our entertainment operators, our personalised content access platform. Heading the ranks is the famous GAFA foursome, i.e. Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon. Each of these four giants has managed to grow its business by leveraging their initial disruptive innovation, which quickly expanded into other arenas: a search engine that became the world’s biggest ad broker, a genius hardware manufacturer that invented the app store, a social networking site now poised to become a viral content distribution platform, and an online bookshop that has become a global one-stop-shop for every product imaginable. A power that is measured in superlative figures: billions of users, record-breaking revenue, the biggest cash flows and the highest market caps… Not to mention the advantages of being a ubiquitous global brand: the ability to create local versions of online products quickly across the planet, and an apparently unquenchable thirst for diversification that today includes robots, online banking, virtual reality, cloud computing services and, so, content.

The virtuous circle of Netflix

Can Netflix carve itself a place alongside these giants? Its success lies is keeping the promise of unlimited video, with a strong emphasis on TV series. A simple and efficient product that seduced American viewers with its ultra competitive price, compared to what cable companies charge. And it now appears poised to be embraced by Europeans as well, even the younger ones who are used to getting their videos for free via streaming, but seem to be willing to pay €8 a month to access the service.
But the power of the model also lies in a service that is built around the Web’s most popular content: video, which already accounts for close to 60% of open Internet traffic in France. Added to this is Netflix’s ability to invest massively in the most sought-after creative content today: TV series. Avoiding the distribution costs of a commercial intermediary, which account for close to 50% of HBO’s business model, Netflix can finance the production of original TV series. Starting out as just one content distributor among many, the firm from Los Gatos, in the heart of Silicon Valley, soon became a true master of the genre. A genre that may well become the emblem of the early part of this century, in the same way that theatre, the novel or cinema were for previous centuries – with the potential to lay claim to the moniker of major art form, attracting the finest writers, the best actors and huge production budgets. Much as stories serialised in the written press were once amalgamated into popular novels, television series are now being binge watched, and no longer viewed by a single episode a week. In the hands of the teams at Netflix, the series is becoming a precious weapon, at once capable of securing customer loyalty with popular series like House of Cards, of opening up new markets as with the brand new series, Marco Polo, which is aimed squarely at the Asian market, and negotiating their local bona fides, as they have in France with their commitment to produce a series like Marseille locally.

An all-in-one subscription for content?

Netflix being propelled to the rank of Internet giant also rests on the supposition that the success of the all inclusive subscription to TV programmes can be expanded to include other content, in the near future. We already have unlimited subscriptions to music (Spotify and Deezer), print media (Relay.Com), video games (OnLive) and books (Oyster and Amazon, of course). But we should also note that the lines are shifting, as Pascal Nègre, President and CEO of Universal Music France, recently touted these services as the ultimate means of saving the revenue of one of the first industries in the firing line of the digital revolution. Meanwhile publishers are still debating the wisdom of applying the model to books, with most coming out against it.
As veteran specialists struggle to introduce viable subscription plans, an outside player, armed with a cross-media universal subscription model could emerge. Netflix could be the promoter in chief, buoyed up by the success of its video-centric model. It could carry that model over to other content, and overtake not just traditional players, but even Amazon, Apple and Google which, although already well entrenched in this market, have thus far failed to demonstrate any great skill. This would mark a true disruption. By dominating the universal content subscription, in the same way that Amazon has become an all-in-one store, Netflix would become our main provider of paid access to all content. A veritable earthquake that would completely shake up the way culture industries’ value chains are organised. It would also undoubtedly pave the way for a whole series of changes: cross-cutting recommendations covering all manner of content, accessing an article in the press the way we currently access songs, paying authors according to the size of their readership…

Netflix stepping into this closed circle of giants would confirm one of the Internet’s key maxims: winner takes all. In a globalised market, a single player dominates each segment. But the GAFA foursome have not yet lost the content battle, nor are they ready to lay down their arms.

Jean-Dominique Séval and Gilles Fontaine, Deputy CEOs of IDATE

20Jan/150

Video getting personal: The Network PVR (nPVR) technology: a new generation of digital recorders

Jacques Bajon

Jacques Bajon
Head of "Video Distribution" Practice

IDATE has released its White Paper on personalised video consumption, explored through the development of network based programme recording made possible by network PVR (nPVR) technology.

For Jacques Bajon, Head of IDATE’s Video Distribution Practice and author of this report, “consumers are taking control and shifting gradually from passive viewers to active participants in their consumption of TV services. Recording programmes is a major example of this shift. Network based recording and storage functions thanks to nPVR systems is a solution that makes it possible to strengthen the synergies between linear and on-demand TV services, paving the way for a win-win model for consumers, rights holders and network operators”.

The cloudification of TV

The network PVR (nPVR) is an evolution of PVR which moves the storage of programme recordings to operators’ servers.. It is thus part of a wider process of deployment of platforms in the area of video distribution into “the cloud”, i.e. the moving of distribution features from the home television to remote servers. This “cloud” approach to managing video content is being progressively adopted due to the flexibility given to the editors of TV services, network operators and consumers.

Distributors around the world that have implemented this solution are many, especially in Europe, seeking to capitalise on the positive externalities for all of the parties involved:

• The user benefits from an improvement of the recording feature, now available on all viewing devices. In addition, a new population is becoming eligible for the facilities of digital recording, without bearing the cost of expensive equipment.
• Rights holders rely on networking solutions to better monitor the use of their content outside linear programming, create a new link with television viewers/users and thus better monetise that content. Influential in terms of programmes, TV channels can then promote the relationship between linear and non-linear offers and find new revenue leverage based on cumulative audiences. This evolution applies more and more in a secure environment that does not necessarily question the rights holders’ remuneration systems.
• The network operator sees in the deployment of nPVR the possibility of an optimisation of the costs of digital recording solutions in comparison with hard drives deployed in homes. These gains could allow operators to invest in the ergonomics and functionalities of the services, which are now the heart of the added value of video content distribution.

With the consumer gaining flexibility in video use, rights holders transforming the threat of delinearisation into an opportunity for better exploitation of their content and operators able to better manage those services operationally, there is the possibility of creating a virtuous circle, made possible through nPVR solutions.

Map of nPVR deployments in Europe

map-of-NPVR-deployment-europe-2015

 

 

 

 
Source: IDATE

> To download the White Paper, this way.

 

7Jan/150

Wearables and Consumer Electronics: 123 million wearables will be sold in 2018

ROPERT_Samuel

Samuel Ropert, Project Leader of this report

Forecasts up to 2018: markets spurred by innovation and connected devices

Coinciding with CES 2015, IDATE is publishing its latest reports on the wearables and consumer electronics (CE) sectors – providing readers with the latest news on market developments by type of product and by region.

In 2018, 123 million wearables will be sold, representing a 70% CAGR over the estimated over 20 million in 2014.
Smart watches will lead the wearables market from 2015, thanks to a more mature market overall and the release of the Apple Watch in early 2015.
The wristband sales units should decrease from 2017 onwards as their main features will probably have been embedded into smart watches and these should be cheaper thanks to economies of scale.
Sales of connected glasses should be marginal in volume as many doubts have arisen around the real involvement of developers providing innovative applications. Moreover, the price is very discouraging for the mass market for now as it reaches 1,500 USD.

annual-sales-wearables-Idate

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ongoing rise in CE device sales up to 2018

 

CE device sales will grow from 2.4 billion units in 2014 to 3.6 billion in 2018 or by an average 8.6% a year: This includes the sale of televisions, cable, satellite, terrestrial and IP STBs, computers, smartphones, tablets, home and handheld consoles, DMAs, Blu-ray players and DVRs.

Growth will be carried by portable media device and digital media box sales

• Portable media devices (smartphones, tablets, handheld consoles):
- Will be the most dynamic CE segment: +12.3% annual growth, on average, from 2014 to 2018.
- Smartphones and tablets becoming more and more popular.

Digital media Boxes (home consoles, DMA, DVR, Blu-ray players): The growth in sales will be solid and steady up to 2018: an average +9.8% per year.

TV segment (+1.4% a year, on average) will show signs of recovery: Between 2006 and 2012, households outfitted themselves with smart–LED–HD1080p televisions. The slump in sales that began in 2012 is expected to last until 2015. The arrival of value-added smart TVs, along with a drop in the price of UHD and OLED sets, should help pull TV sales out of their funk starting in 2016.

Computer and STB segments will enter a period of structural decline
- STB sales (+1.2% a year, on average) will increase slightly between 2014 and 2017, before dropping due to an acceleration of the cord-cutting phenomenon in developed countries, and to the cloudification of devices.
- Computers (-4.2% a year, on average): as tablets continue to become more popular, computer sales will start to shrink in 2015. Little by little, the tablet is becoming the personal computing device of choice, and edging out the classic computer.

Regional-Ce-Device-sales-2014

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

>> If you want to buy our study, go on our store

Filed under: Smart Living No Comments
5Jan/150

Le Digiworld Summit 2014 in drawings

ouverture DWS14

The 2014 digiworld summit "drawn from life" by Aurélie Bordenave, alias Léely. Discover all the strong moments. (texts are in french or in english)

 

 

 

 

Global introduction

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Plenary: Business models, Rethinking the telcos business models in the 5G era

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Keynote : Smart Glasses

 

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Business models: Rethinking the telcos business models in the 5G era

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Disruptive innovations: one step towards 5G

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Smart City & Mobile living

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Seminar "TV everywhere"

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Seminar : "Business models: M2M & Internet of Things - Smarter objects, smarter processes"

m2m-internet-of-things

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Business models: Narrowing the gap between explosive usage and limited ad revenues
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Europe on the rebound ?

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TV & facing Mobility

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>> Retrouvez tous les dessins d'Aurélie Bordenave durant le Digiworld Summit 2014 sur Flickr.

>> Découvrez le travail d'Aurélie Bordenave alias Léely sur son site.

 

5Jan/150

Digiworld Summit 2014 : the speakers’interviews – in french

ouverture DWS14

Le digiworld summit 2014 a réuni autour des questions de la mobilité près de 1 200 participants et 140 speakers du monde numérique. Les vidéos des moments forts de ces deux journées.

 

 

- L'interview de Laurent Solly, DG de Facebook France

- L'interview d'Eric Scherer, en charge de la prospective à France Télévisions"Social TV, l'internaute en ligne de lire "

- L'interview de Julien Villedieu, président du Syndicat national des jeux vidéos : "Le jeu vidéo en mobilité"

- L'interview de Carlos Moreno, "La ville nous parle"

- L'interview de Kévin Cloarec "Comment les objets connectés révolutionnent-ils notre quotidien"

Les vidéos sont signées Vincent Touati fondateur du site Convergence Numérique.
Retrouvez ici la playlist des vidéos de convergence Numérique pour le Digiword Summit 2014.

23Dec/140

Books, music, video games and video : Household spending will start to climb in 2015

Alexandre JOLIN
Alexandre JOLIN
Consultant de l'IDATE

The study on how the online shift is affecting content industries analyse four main segments: books, recorded music, vide0 games and video products. Presentation.

For each sector, it provides readers with detailed market figures, analyses the move to the internet, its impact on industry structure and revenue sharing, and delivers market forecasts up to 2018, both global and for seven key national markets.

Alexandre Jolin, the Project manager for the report remarks that, “the global content market topped €140 billion in 2014, or only just over 1% more than in 2012, which marked a record low since the onset of electronic distribution channels”. Keeping in mind that 37% of content industries’ revenue come from these online distribution channels, or double the amount in 2010, albeit with huge disparities between the segments: 13% for books versus 67% for video games.

Content dematerialisation produces certain common effects to these different segments, despite the characteristics of books, recorded music, video games and video:
• a rise in subscriptions, at the expense of per-unit sales
• lower prices, which, combined with piracy, has an impact on household spending
• simplification of the value chain, with technical costs and intermediaries having less of an influence, which benefits consumers as well as those involved in creating, publishing and producing content
• piracy has a significant effect, although it seems to be stabilising thanks to new unlimited offerings, at least in developed markets
• a trend towards concentration upstream (production/editing) and downstream (distribution)

The various segments of the content industry are expected to follow different trajectories in the next five years:
• Publishing, which has only just started the process of dematerialisation, is likely to see revenues stagnate.
• Music, video and video games are likely to continue to grow or return to growth.
• The overall dematerialisation rate will reach 63% in 2018.

IDATE has identified the following key factors in digital content market development:
• a tighter link between purchase of a physical copy and a dematerialised copy
• the rise of the 'service' function, which allows personalised content recommendations
• innovative pricing models, individualised for each type of content (yield management)

Household spending expected to be back on the up

Falling in recent years, household spending on cultural products and services should start to increase from 2014, reaching 84.20 EUR per year worldwide in 2018. We nevertheless expect to see huge regional disparities, as North American households will continue to be by far the heaviest spenders on cultural goods and services, totalling an average €375 per household in 2018.

Household expenditure on cultural goods and services, worldwide, by content type, 2014–2018 (EUR,%)
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Source: IDATE, Content Economics, September 2014

 

Would you like to discover ous study ? This way.

22Dec/140

FTTx Monetization : The UFB market is forecast to reach 181 billion EUR in 2018

CHAILLOU_Valérie

Valérie CHAILLOU Head of Research, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE

IDATE has released its report to provide UFB market estimates for 2013 and up to 2018 and addresses the following key questions:

 

• What are the levels of current UFB ARPUs and how could there evolve in the 5 coming years?
• How to justify possible differences from one country to another?
• What are some of the most likely development scenarios for the ultra-fast broadband market?
• What are the main criteria to take into consideration?

Valérie Chaillou, the Project manager for the report remarks that “the tremendous cost of new gen access networks makes monetizing them a crucial issue. Ultrafast-boradband (UFB) access providers' supply-side strategies are aimed at ensuring enough customers who will upgrade to a UFB service in order to generate substantial income.

The UFB market stood at 120 billion EUR in 2014, and is forecast to grow by 76% over the next five years to reach 181 billion EUR in 2018. In 2013, the global UFB market stood at an estimated 103 billion EUR, and is forecast to exceed 181 billion EUR in 2018. This includes all ultra-fast broadband systems, i.e. FTTH/B, FTTN + VDSL and FTTLA + DOCSIS 3.0. In terms of customer numbers in the different regions, FTTH/B alone accounted for 41% of the market in 2013, or 42.2 billion EUR.

Based on the current status of each of the markets being examined in this report – i.e. the United States, Japan, Germany, Spain, France, the UK and Switzerland – and how the players’ positioning is likely to shift with respect to the two scenarios listed above, IDATE has established an estimate for ultra-fast broadband ARPU at the end of 2013 and at the end of 2018.

ufb-market-growth-and-regional-split-from-2013-to2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

We have distinguished two main categories of ultra-fast broadband plan: first-time plans and upgrade plans. An ISP may attach one or several objectives to its product line strategy. These can include increasing ARPU, limiting customer loss (churn), maintaining its competitive edge, reacting to increased competition in the broadband market, etc.

Sketching out two extreme scenarios allows us to assess the development trends for UFB ARPU, based in particular on how operators are positioning themselves with respect to increasingly powerful content providers who know it is entirely in their interest for ultra-fast networks to become widely available. So ISPs are either a) refocusing their energies on their network business and offering value-added services (VAS) tied to system management (data storage, security, authentication, etc.) – under a scenario we call "FTTx as smart pipe" – or b) becoming involved in the direct supply of services and applications such as TV and video to end users, with an approach built around "tiering and premium services".

If you want to buy our report go on our store.

Filed under: FTTx No Comments
16Dec/140

Mobile Communication: Wrap up from DigiWorld Summit 2014

digiworldsummit-2014-Mobility-reloaded

by Yves Gassot, CEO, IDATE  
& Didier Pouillot, Director of the Telecom Strategy Business Unit, IDATE

The 2014 DigiWorld Summit sessions devoted to telecoms gave off a certain serene, so as not to say optimistic vibe. Was it because of the huge numbers that each one trotted out, whether talking about mobile customer growth (over 9 billion users by the end of the decade), the exploding Internet of Things (80 billion connected things in 2020, according to IDATE), mobile traffic growth (triple that of wireline traffic) or the speeds expected from Advanced LTE (up to 100 times faster than 3G)...

 

5G needs to put Europe back on the map

So the watchwords for all of the speakers at this year’s Summit were erasing the past decade which, for a great many telcos, has been synonymous with shrinking revenue and margins in Europe’s five biggest markets (EU-5) since 2008, as underscored by Didier Pouillot, Head of IDATE’s Telecom Strategies Business Unit. Synonymous too with spending well below their counterparts in the US, and lagging behind in 4G rollouts, even though real progress has been made in terms of coverage. So the gauntlet has been thrown down: Europe needs to be back on the map, and amongst the world’s telecom hardware and service leaders by the time the 5G era rolls around, i.e. by around 2020, even if the South Koreans in 2018 and the Japanese in 2020 will be keen to show off their chops at the Winter and Summer Olympics, respectively.

From a technical standpoint, the race to superfast mobile appears to be well out of the gate. Frédéric Pujol, Head of IDATE’s Wireless Business Unit, listed the assets of LTE, which has now become a global standard, and how LTE Advanced will move things even further along with frequency aggregation, HetNets (Heterogeneous Networks) that will make it easier to manage small cells, optimised multicast protocols (especially important knowing that video is expected to account for more than 50% of traffic), eMBMS, etc. Although far from being standardised, 5G will take datarates higher still, delivering speeds in the Gigabit/s. But, as several speakers pointed out, the future will also mean multi-network access, taking into consideration the particular constraints surrounding the deployment of the Internet of Things, for instance, as not all objects are connected via cellular networks – but rather via NFC or low frequency radio networks, like the ones deployed by Sigfox.
What alternative wireless technologies can do… while waiting for 5G

There was a lot of talk about Wi-Fi in Montpellier. There was Silano Lo, CEO of Ruckus Wireless, one of Silicon Valley’s top equipment suppliers. She spoke in particular about the progress made by new generations of Wi-Fi, which will be fully integrated into telcos’ infrastructure, so subscribers will no longer have to login and enter a password. She also reminded us that Wi-Fi was a central part of

Comcast and other American cable companies’ strategies, both as way to secure customer loyalty and enter the wireless market. These strategies are also found in Europe, with companies like Liberty Global and BT, with Wi-Fi enabling wireline telcos to operate as MVNOs, combining homespots and hotspots, while minimising the amount of traffic being relayed over cellular infrastructure.
Speakers on the various panels offered nuanced answers to the question of whether high-speed and ultra high-speed mobile access will come to replace wireline access. All came together to emphasise that, in emerging economies, mobile broadband will be the main channel for Internet growth, even if Christophe Wilhelm, Senior VP Strategy & Innovation for Thales Alenia Space, did stress that satellite-based – both geostationary and in medium and low-earth orbit (MEO/LEO) – and unconventional solutions such as balloons and even drones, will also have a role to play.

The superfast revolution will require a stronger core

For Michel Combes, CEO of Alcatel-Lucent, the debate is no longer about whether fixed or mobile systems will emerge triumphant: convergent infrastructures and ultra high-speed mobile will no longer be able to avoid public and private small cell architectures, pulling optical fibre closer and closer to user premises. For Mr Combes, the revolution is not confined to superfast access but, more fundamentally, will go by way of concepts such as SDN (Software Defined Network) and virtualisation with NFV (Network Function Virtualisation), which will give network operators access to control and command functionalities that ensure the networks’ reliability and security. If the smartphone has become the measuring stick of innovation for consumers, and the cloud revolution has begun, the network revolution that connects one to the other, is still to come.

Telcos on the offensive: working to change regulation and business models

Naturally, telecom carriers also talked about how to get back on their feet. Following through on what Michel Combes had to say, Telefónica’s Global Head of Public Strategies and Regulatory affairs, Carlos Lopez-Blanco, and Deputy CEO of Orange, Pierre Louette, want to see Europe deliver a strategic action plan in the very near future. More specifically, Carlos Lopez-Blanco shared his wishlist for the new Commission:
•    more relaxed regulation that leaves greater leeway for commercial negotiations;
•    increased harmonisation in the application of the regulatory framework, and emergence of a European regulator;
•    a level playing field that puts an end to the asymmetry in the regulation imposed on telcos and the laissez-faire attitude towards the dominant positions enjoyed by OTT companies.

This last demand goes beyond sector-specific regulation, however. By the same token, how the ongoing consolidation in Europe plays out is largely in the hands of anti-trust authorities. But the representatives of Telefónica and Orange did not simply express their frustration with regulatory constraints. They also sketched the future of their business models, emphasising the promise they see in the development of 4G and mobile data traffic, in the cloud and M2M, along with the potential offered by partnerships with content providers and verticals, while not excluding the possibility of offering exclusive products and their own OTT services. This was an opportunity for them to make clear that their support of an open Internet must not relegate them to the status of dumb pipe.

To go further…

Our videos :
> Pierre Louette, Deputy CEO d’Orange
> Frédéric Pujol, directeur de la Business unit Wireless de l’IDATE

> Michel de Rosen’s présentation (Eutelsat ) 

The presentations :
> Didier Pouillot, Director of the Telecom Strategy Business Unit, IDATE, « rethinking the telcos business model »
> Jaehyun YEO, Senior Researcher, KISDI, "Future Networks: Challenges & Opportunities"
> Ambroise Popper, VP/GM M2M BU, Sequans Communications, "Closing Keynote " 

> Carlos LOPEZ, Telefónica, "Rethinking the Telcos business models in the age of 5G "
> Soline Olszanski, VP Strategy & Innovation, Hub One, "4G Critical and Professional"

Our study :
> World Network Optimisation Technologies 

> World LTE Market
> World FTTx Markets