14May/130

Africa and Middle East LTE forecasts

Frédéric Pujol, Head of the radio technologies & spectrum practice, IDATE
Frédéric PUJOL
Head of the radio technologies & spectrum practice, IDATE


70 million LTE subscribers for Africa and Middle East in 2016

As an official partner of LTE MENA 2013, IDATE delivers its latest insights about the LTE Market in Africa and Middle East.

LTE is gaining momentum: by 2016, there will be a total of 916 million LTE subscriptions worldwide. Our forecasts regarding Africa and Middle East are for 68 million LTE subscriptions at the end of 2016.

World LTE market : LTE deployments stepping up

• We expect that, by the end of 2013, a significant portion of LTE devices will support both FDD and TDD duplex modes. TD-LTE deployments in India, China and many other countries in the Asia-Pacific, Latin American, and Middle East regions and, to a lesser extent, Europe will fuel this growth.

• We anticipate that more than 80% of LTE devices will also support 3G and, in most cases, 2G in 2014.

• A limited number of LTE devices will support Mobile WiMAX in order to facilitate smooth transition for operators switching to TD-LTE.

Middle East & Africa : 70 million LTE suscribers by 2016

• The first LTE commercial services were launched in South Africa, Tanzania and Namibia in 2H 2012.

• Saudi Arabia: the three MNOs – Etisalat-Mobily, Zain Saudi Arabia and Saudi Telecom Company (STC) – launched LTE services in 2011. They were slowed down by the lack of compatible smartphones.

• Our forecasts are for 68 million LTE subscriptions at the end of 2016 in the countries of the Middle East and Africa for a revenue of 20 billion Euro.

Africa Middle East LTE Subscribers forecasts (thousand)

Africa & Middle East LTE subscriptions by 2016

Source: IDATE

Frédéric PUJOL
Head of Mobile & Spectrum Practice at IDATE
f.pujol@idate.org

> More information about LTE MENA 2013 Event

> More information on Africa and Middle East LTE forecasts

7May/130

World Telecom Services

MANERO Carole
Carole MANERO
Project Leader, Digiworld by IDATE

Global telecom services market to reach over €1,200 billion in 2015

“We have observed that, overall, telecom services are recovering more slowly than the economy as a whole,” reports Carole Manero, head of IDATE’s Telecom Players & Markets report.

Montpellier, 7 May 2013 - IDATE reveals the findings of its world telecom services watch. After a setback in 2009 and very slight growth in 2010, the global market has been inching back to a more solid recovery since 2011, growing by a modest 2.7% in 2012. This translates into telecom services revenue of €1,115 billion for the year.

Now in a recovery phase, telecom markets in advanced countries are proving somewhat resilient, whereas in fast developing markets the increase in volume is so steady that the ripple effect far outweighs any structural obstacles. This phenomenon is telling of a mature industry now driven more by demographics than economics. In Africa/the Middle East, for instance, the drop in regional GDP in 2009 (-6%) and its rebound in 2010 (+16%) had very little impact on telecom services growth rates which remained very high both years: 8% and 9%, respectively.

World telecom services market - 2012

World telecom services market revenue by type and region

Source : Digiworld by IDATE

Majority mobile access

According to IDATE, the number of mobile customers worldwide should top the 8 billion mark in 2017 (+28.0% in 5 years).

• The number of Internet subscribers will grow more strongly (+37.3 % between 2012 and 2017, +6.5% per year on average), reaching 1 billion by the end of 2017.

• Traditional landlines continue to loose ground in the face of VoIP and mobile.

The spread of broadband

According to IDATE, the number of fixed broadband subscribers is expected to reach 957 million worldwide by 2017, for a penetration rate of 14% of the population. The number of 4G mobile subscribers should experience strong growth.

Two major factors will play in favour of the spread of broadband:

• The success of bundled offers (fixed telephony, VoIP, TV, mobile telephony) and the appetite for video applications.

• The investment of telecom operators in the migration of their infrastructures to mobile or fixed broadband.

Revenues from telecom services

According to IDATE, the global revenues from telecom services will grow from 1,115 billion in 2012 to 1,286 billion in 2017, representing an average annual growth of 2.9% in 5 years.

• Revenues from mobile services will grow by 18.7% between 2012 and 2017 (+3.5 % per year on average), reaching 779 billion EUR in 2017.

• Revenues associated with data transmission and Internet will grow more strongly (+32.8% between 2012 and 2017, i.e. +5.8% per year on average), to reach 329 billion EUR in 2017

• The turnover of fixed telephony will continue to decline significantly (-15.9% between 2012 and 2017, i.e. a decline of 3.4% per year on average), to be at 177 billion EUR in 2017.

Scalability of operators in emerging countries, even if the global top three remains unchanged since 2007

A single change in the ranking of European operators: Telefonica overtook Deutsche Telekom in 2011: now the leading European operator, the Spanish group ranks fourth in the world.

Chinese operators regularly win places in the world rankings

Vimpelcom gained fifteen places in 2011 : Owing to the acquisition of a large part of the shares of Orascom Telecom and Wind, VimpelCom moved from 34th place in 2010 to 19th in the world in 2011

Several operators from industrial countries "drop out": The Dutch KPN and Canadian ECB fell back by five places in two and a half years and drop out of the top 20

Classement des principaux opérateurs télécoms

Selon leur chiffre d'affaires au 1er semestre 2012 (milliards EUR)
World telecom operators ranking according to revenues end 2012

Source : Digiworld by IDATE

Five operators in the top twenty worldwide for over 50% of their turnover outside their domestic market:

• Among them, three European operators...

- Vodafone: global operator widely present in Europe, Asia and Africa

- Telefónica: with a widespread presence in Latin America and in some European countries (UK, Germany, Czech Republic, Slovakia)

- Deutsche Telekom: present in Central and Eastern Europe and in several Asian countries

•...and two operators from developing countries:

- America Móvil: present mainly in Latin America (plus participation in Europe acquired in 2012)

- Vimpelcom: already present in Central Asia, with a new presence in Africa and Europe (Italy) thanks to the deal with the Naguib Sawiris group

Carole MANERO
Chef de projet, IDATE
c.manero@idate.org

More information about World Telecom Services

22Apr/130

Interview with FRANK PILLER Aachen University, Germany / MIT Media Lab, USA

Published in COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGIES No. 89, 1st Quarter 2013

Open Innovation 2.0
Co-creating with users

This issue of C&S analyses the thematic of open innovation with a focus on co-creation with end-users

Summary of this issue: Innovation has always been a central element of competition dynamics. During the last decades, globalization, deregulation, internet, new technologies, the digital revolution, and consumers' behavior have radically modified the innovation process and the competition structure. In many areas, the offer is rich and diversified: innovation is a unique opportunity to create competitive advantages necessary for growth. Among the general topic of open innovation, this special issue focuses on users' involvement in the innovation process. It offers a collection of papers providing interesting opinions, experiences, advances and evidence.

Frank Piller

Exclusive:
Interview with FRANK PILLER
Aachen University, Germany / MIT Media Lab, USA

Conducted by Anna Maria KOECK
ZBW – German National Library of Economics, Hamburg, Germany

 

C&S: Why are you interested in open innovation?

Frank PILLER: We today know that the time of the sole Schumpeterian entrepreneur is over. While there still are examples of individuals making great innovations on their own, today successful innovation is a team game.

This is not new per se. But with the internet, a number of new tools and interaction possibilities have been made possible supplement traditional forms of external partnerships in the innovation process. When I refer to open innovation, I am not talking about contract research, supplier innovation, research alliances, or market research. Open innovation in my understanding builds on new, crowdsourcing-based methods that connect an innovating firm with "unobvious" other, people that are not in its regular list of partners or in its own industry.

The core idea of open innovation is to work with an organization or with someone you didn’t know previously. When you have a problem to solve, you make it known, circulate it - whether on a large scale or by going through specialized channels like Innocentive or NineSigma.

And thanks to large network effects, going through this type of channel is not expensive any longer, we are talking about project fees of 20,000$ or less.

Is open innovation more relevant than ever?

Definetly, I’d say yes. Technologies have evolved so much that companies need help if they want to keep up. You know, whether you are a very large or a small company, customers now ask for solutions, not just products. But when you sell solutions, you need more expertise and knowledge. The outsourcing mentality is well established in the manufacturing sector. In Germany, for example, open innovation is becoming popular the moment, as we have a lot of trouble recruiting engineers.

What type of company can open innovation apply to?

Most of the present users are manufacturing companies, particularly multinationals. Companies like Unilever and Procter&Gamble, which constantly have to bring out new products and have been pioneers in open innovation. Similar in the pharmaceutical industry where research is very expensive and highly complex. Car manufacturers have been reluctant for a long time, but I think this is slowly changing. The sector which, in my opinion, would benefit from using open innovation is small and medium enterprises. SMEs have far fewer resources for innovation and often lack the time to tackle it. And I strongly recognize a growing interest from this sector today.

Is open innovation a business imperative yet? What would happen if companies continue to remain closed and locked into the traditional way of generating ideas and products without external collaboration at the society level?

Well, I would say truly closed innovation is not possible anyway. All innovation built on existing knowledge and some form of networking. But the term open innovation suggests that a company build dedicated practices to make the connection with the best external knowledge for a given innovation task better and more efficient. So for me, open innovation is not a business imperative, but a set of practices and organizational capabilities to connect with a firm's periphery for innovation.

Having said this, however, our research finds that companies need a dedicated balance between openness and closeness (Look for more at http://ssrn.com/abstract=2164766). Being too open also comes at a cost, and firms need to build dedicated internal organizational practices to become more open.

Customers are often considered the most important source of external input for innovation. But is this really true? As proven in many idea contests, great ideas come from the "common man" or outsiders. How can a company engage with these users?

Here we have to make an important distinction. Research, originating by the path-breaking work by Eric von Hippel at the MIT, has shown that many commercially important products or processes are initially thought of by innovative users rather than by manufactures. Especially when markets are fast-paced or turbulent, so called lead users face specific needs ahead of the general market participants. Lead users are characterized as users who (1) face needs that will become general in a marketplace much earlier before the bulk of that marketplace encounters them; and (2) are positioned to benefit significantly by obtaining a solution for those needs.

But lead users are NO average customers or users. There are only very few lead users. Average customers are in general neither innovative nor do they want to engage in innovation. Hence, it is the task of a company to identify these lead users by specific search and screening methods. There is not enough space here to describe these methods, but they are very well documented (look at Eric von Hippel's MIT homepage for some examples).

And ideation contests indeed are a great way to engage with "unobvious" users and idea providers. A company broadcasts a task or challenge, calling for ideas, and users self-select to participate. In this way, it are not representative customers like in market research or focus groups who provide input, but people that really have a problem or already a solution.

In a way co-creation can be defined as outsourcing idea generation to the society. What is your exact definition of this concept? And what is the main benefit for companies?

Customer co-creation has been defined by us as an active, creative and social process, based on collaboration between producers (retailers) and customers (users). Customers are actively involved and take part in the design of new products or services. Their co-creation activities are performed in an act of company-to-customer interaction which is facilitated by the company. The objective is to utilize the information and capabilities of customers and users for the innovation process.

The main benefit is to enlarge the base of information about needs, applications, and solution technologies that resides in the domain of the customers and users of a product or service. Examples for methods to achieve this objective include user idea contests, consumer opinion platforms, toolkits for user innovation, mass customization toolkits, and communities for customer co-creation.

The main benefit for companies is to enhance the "fit to market", but also to engage in a more interactive, engaged relationship with their customers and users – with great effects for relationship marketing!

Being open about problems are not yet a norm in the market place, where companies are conversing predominantly about what they know, more than what they do not know. What are your comments?

Good question! This indeed is one of the largest challenges we see in the field today. Many companies know about the tools or methods to co-create that I named previously. But they are not ready to internally exploit the knowledge generated with their customers and users. Here I believe we still need plenty of change management to change this mind-set you mention!

This is a field where I believe we also need more research. Firms need more information and better guidance on how to assess whether their organization and branch is suited for customer co-creation. This information is crucial in order to build specific competences that aid firms in identifying opportunities and ultimately in using the right method. Managers need a clear picture of their own organizational settings and capabilities before being able to answer important questions during the implementation of one’s own customer integration initiative. This could include answers to questions like how innovation projects have to be reorganized, which kinds of projects are suited for customer integration and how the internal development processes have to be adjusted in order to allow optimal customer integration.

The internal readiness of companies – such as having a co-creation team/department, methodology, etc – is often lacking in companies that spend huge sums on co-creation projects, which are mostly managed by corporate communication departments or marketing departments. Do you advocate the formation of a multi-disciplined co-creation team that can do the job of creating, running co-creation projects? Is it not an exclusive, specialized professional/managerial skill – like branding, marketing, finance – by itself?

Yes, you already provided the answer by yourself. The problem, however, is that there are still very few companies that have such a co-creation team in place, many even don't have one functional manager taking care of the initiative. But this will change, and I think that the first organizations are building exactly these interdisciplinary teams you are talking about.

What is the link between the success of a co-creation project and the performance of the base product or initiative?

To answer this interesting question, we only have anecdotal evidence that co-creation provides value. But large scale quantitative research is lacking. However, I know that several researchers are just in the progress of conducting this research, and so I hope that in a few years or so, we will get a better answer on the performance effects of co-creation. A very first study recently has been published by Martin Schreier from WU Vienna, and he found together with a team from Japan, using data from a large Japanese retailer, that indeed user-generated products are much more profitable than internally created products (more at http://tinyurl.com/ae2bu6a). And I personally have seen many companies profiting from co-creation, if it is executed correctly and the results are used internally in the right way.

Biography

Frank PILLER is a professor of management and the director of the Technology & Innovation Management Group at RWTH Aachen University, Germany. He also is a co-director of the MIT Smart Customization Group at the MIT Media Lab, USA. His research focuses on innovation interfaces: How can organizations increase innovation success by designing and managing better interfaces within their organization and with external actors. This stream of research includes topics like value co-creation between businesses and customers/users, strategies to increase the productivity of technical problem solving by open innovation, and models to cope with contingencies of the innovation process. Frank Piller's research is supported by grants from the European Commission, the DFG, BMBF, and other institutions. He has consulted and delivered executive workshops for many Dax30 and Fortune500 companies. As an investor, member of the Board of Directors or as a scientific adviser of several technology companies, he transfers his research into practice.

Published in COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGIES No. 89, 1st Quarter 2013

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Contact
COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGIES
Sophie NIGON
Managing Editor
s.nigon@idate.org

15Apr/131

Residential LTE vs. Satellite broadband

Maxime Baudry, Co-Head of Satellite Practice at IDATE

Maxime Baudry
Co-Head of Satellite Practice at IDATE

Perspectives for satellite broadband facing residential LTE offerings

Just as they did with 3G, telcos started to propose residential offers based on LTE, how does it compare with satellite broadband offers?

Residential LTE, a direct competitor to satellite broadband

ust as they did with 3G, telcos started to propose residential offers based on LTE. It’s notably the case of Verizon Wireless in the United States who proposes “Home Fusion” since May 2012, a service that allows households to access broadband via an outdoor LTE antenna installed on one of the walls of the building. The antenna is billed 200 USD but the installation is free. How does it compare with satellite broadband offers? Downloading speeds vary between 5 and 12 Mbps in average with a pricing range going from 60USD for 10GB of data to 120 USD Monthly for 120 GB. With similarities in pricing, downloading speeds and data caps, LTE is positioned as a direct competitor to Satellite broadband.

Residential LTE coming to Europe

In Europe, first LTE offers arrive on the market. The first to propose such services was Netcom, a filial of TeliaSonera, who was first to propose LTE in Norway. It offers 100GB of data for a monthly fee of 68 EUR. According to Netcom, it is very likely that this kind of solution could be considered as a substitute to DSL, especially when the monthly data cap exceeds observed traffic on DSL networks (An average of 30 GB per household). In germany, Vodafone proposes a similar offer since 2012, but this time it is differentiated with quality of service through network speed with prices starting from 25 EUR to 40 EUR monthly to have access to 50 Mbps and 30 GB.

Satellite Broadband: no more competitive?

Considering this kind of offers, satellite broadband is no more competitive, neither on network speed nor on monthly data cap offered. Even though these new offerings materializes the LTE threat for satellite broadband we had foreseen, LTE coverage remains very limited. Anyhow, satellite will have to pursue its downloading speeds increase since 2008 if it wants to maintain a competitive advantage on this market.

Positioning of some satellite broadband offers in France, March 2013

saterllite_broadband_france

Source: Digiworld by IDATE

Maxime Baudry
Head of the radio technologies & spectrum practice, IDATE
m.baudry@idate.org

>More information about Satellite Ultra Broadband in Europe

11Apr/130

Viewpoint on the latest changes for LTE chipsets device landscape

Basile Carle
Basile CARLE

LTE Baseband market: Race for second position & Technology standards ahead

Following Mobile World Congress 2013, the main trends regarding LTE chipsets and devices are as follows:

Qualcomm is by far the unchallenged leader on the LTE baseband market with more than 80% of the market; it is followed by Samsung and its home-grown chipset strategy. Behind, the race is rather more toward the second position than the first. Major baseband vendors seem ready to embrace the market with multimode FDD/TDD LTE solutions, showing that the market has been entering a second phase.

A situation of oligopsony due to mobile phone market concentration

The concentration of the market around Apple and Samsung makes it even more difficult for LTE baseband vendors to attain volume production. It will be difficult to reach Number Two position on the market without a device win between those two players.

Entrance of Chinese and Taiwanese vendors splits the market between high and low end

In this context, the entrance of Chinese and Taiwanese vendors on the LTE baseband market is even more striking. It suggests that the market will split between the lower-end LTE baseband and the higher-end supporting the latest features of LTE Release 10.

Lack of baseband certifications discredits promising technology developements

While new players are readying to enter the market, others, such as ST-Ericsson and Renesas, are finding it difficult to survive. Despite promising technology developments, they may well either close down their business or find a new life in competitor portfolios. Such difficulties highlight the dual importance of baseband certification by carriers and of securing a quick ‘device win’ to enter a virtuous circle, where certification is easier. There, because the baseband is certified, it is more easily selected by device manufacturers.

LTE Devices compatibility: new standards emerging

While most vendors will have multimode LTE Cat 3 baseband in store this year, being able to face the challenges of LTE Cat 4 while still reducing power consumption will make the difference among vendors. By the end of the year, thanks to carrier aggregation, VoLTE should be supported by most advanced baseband with Qualcomm still ahead – their MDM9x25 baseband is already being integrated in devices for releases during the second half of this year. World LTE devices capable of roaming on the 40 different LTE bands are not for today despite impressive progress in the RF front end. In this field, antennas are still a bottleneck but RF solutions due for release soon have already significantly reduced the number of models required to cover the whole world.

Future of LTE devices

LTE Devices future

Source: Digiworld by IDATE

Basile CARLE

Senior Consultant Telecom Strategies at IDATE

b.carle@idate.org

> More information on LTE Chipset & Devices

28Mar/130

Pay-TV vs SVoD

Florence Le Borgne-Bachschmidt
Florence Le Borgne-Bachschmidt
Florence Le Borgne-Bachschmidt, Head of the TV & Digital content Practice, IDATE.

Between competition and complementarity

IDATE newest market insight offers an overview of the pay TV market in the main European countries and in the United States. It describes the different models of subscription-based video on demand offerings (SVoD): supply-side strategies and description of main players’ services. It lastly analyses the SVoD services developments compared to the pay TV global market.

SVOD seems ready to compete with traditional VOD offerings

Brought to the spotlight thanks to the success of services like Netflix and Hulu, SVOD seems poised to compete with traditional VOD offerings, and even position itself as a true rival of pay TV, the audiovisual market's leading revenue generator.
Mainly originating in the United States, SVOD services are starting to gain ground elsewhere, in part through the expansion of the US services (note the growth of Netflix in Latin America and in several European countries), and in part thanks to the reaction of local stakeholders who are structuring their own SVOD offerings in addition to existing stand-alone services.

Comparison of changes in the number of subscribers to a pay TV offering, Hulu Plus and Netflix in the United States
(Millions of suscriber households)
Comparison of changes in the number of subscribers to a pay TV offering, Hulu Plus and Netflix in the United States

Source: IDATE, Market Insight "Pay-TV vs SVoD", March 2013, based on operators' data

Many video market actors are highly involved in the development of on-demand services

Although the pay TV operators themselves appear to be highly involved in the development of on-demand services, allowing them to broaden the range of services offered to their subscribers and/or reach out to new audiences, many other players are also positioning themselves in this niche, such as free-to-air TV channels, special-interest TV channels, content producers, DVD and Blu-ray rentals players, and Internet industry players.
These services stand out owing to the size of their catalogues, but also their accessibility closely linked to their role in operators' strategies.

Will SVoD offers create a cordcutting effect and replace traditional Pay-TV offers ?

Current discussions concerning the cord-cutting risk that these SVOD services could induce lead us to wonder about their potential to replace traditional pay TV offerings. But apart from the pricing element (which clearly plays in favour of SVOD services), the type of content offered and its positioning in the media chronology, the modes of accessing the content and these services' ability to hold copyrights seem to highlight the fragility of these offerings in comparison to those of linear television. Despite the popularity of these SVOD services and the soul searching they are inducing among traditional pay TV industry players, they still account for a very weak share of the market (less than 2 % of total pay TV and SVOD revenues). Between now and 2017, even if their market share does increase, it should not exceed 4 % of global sales, of which over half will continue to be generated in the United States market. The competition between SVOD and pay TV is undeniable; however, it hinges more on the new players' ability to induce traditional players to overhaul the sector than on their ability to threaten the sector in the medium term.

Florence Le Borgne-Bachschmidt, Head of the TV & Digital content Practice, IDATE.

She joined IDATE in July 1998 and is now head of our TV & Digital content Practice. Florence’s prime area of focus is the development of digital media technologies (terrestrial, cable and satellite TV, digital cinema, video and TV on the web) and specifically the economic, strategic and micro-economic aspects of these sectors. Her analyses also cover media company strategies in general. Before coming to IDATE, Florence worked as the Head of Research in the Nord-Pas-de-Calais Regional Development Agency's Economic Observation department, where she devoted herself primarily to issues relating to the Information Society, the development of telework and the mastery of key technologies. Florence is a graduate of the Lille school of management EDHEC (Ecole of Hautes Etudes Commerciales).

f.leborgne@idate.org

> More information available at: www.idate.org

21Mar/130

Interview with Henri VERDIER Director of Etalab, Services of the French Prime Minister

Published in COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGIES No. 89, 1st Quarter 2013


Open Innovation 2.0
Co-creating with users

This issue of C&S analyses the thematic of open innovation with a focus on co-creation with end-users

Summary of this issue: Innovation has always been a central element of competition dynamics. During the last decades, globalization, deregulation, internet, new technologies, the digital revolution, and consumers' behavior have radically modified the innovation process and the competition structure. In many areas, the offer is rich and diversified: innovation is a unique opportunity to create competitive advantages necessary for growth. Among the general topic of open innovation, this special issue focuses on users' involvement in the innovation process. It offers a collection of papers providing interesting opinions, experiences, advances and evidence.

Henri VerdierExclusive:

HENRI VERDIER's Interview
Director of Etalab, Services of the French Prime Minister

Interview conducted by Gilles FONTAINE (IDATE, Montpellier/Paris)

C&S: Henri Verdier, you were co-author of L'âge de la multitude ['The age of the multitude'], which explains how individuals, outside organisations, are now crucial to creation and growth. Do they play a particular role in the process of innovation of products and services?

Henri VERDIER: Certainly.

Their first role, as we often forget, is to choose, from among all the inventions, the ones that they will make true innovations. That is to say, the ones that will be transformed into progress, both because the audience has adopted them and because of the uses it will make of them. It is in this sense that we speak of "use-driven innovations": not because they are driven by the value of use, as marketing sometimes imagines, but because they are driven by "usage patterns and customs", by the manner in which society organises itself with these innovations.

But this isn't something that dates back only to the beginning of the digital age - it is the common law of innovation in Humanity. What has changed of late is the number of individuals who are educated, equipped and connected, who, by virtue of the sum of their creations, or even their small contributions, can support radical innovations as we see on the Internet.

This is rather good news. But at the same time, we must be aware this "free labour" of Internet users, whether they are active (voluntary contributions) or passive (through data or even usage history), can also be monopolised by major platforms. Most of the time, Internet users feel that the service rendered to them by these platforms is only worth the contribution they are able to make. But it is clear that this can raise a few questions, in terms of protection of privacy and international taxation. Thus Nicolas Colin, co-author of L’Age de la multitude, was tasked with reflecting on the tax implications of this new means of creating value.

Are the social networks the nexus of this open innovation, driven by users?

Yes, if you accept a broad definition of "social network". The big social networks are of course major players in digital. But the phenomenon goes far beyond what happens on Facebook or LinkedIn...

It is quite easy to see that most of the major digital applications have a social dimension, even if you wouldn't call them "social networks" per se. Such is the case of Flickr, digital cameras that automatically connect to YouTube, Google searches, etc. The famous online teaching service, Coursera, probably owes its success not to the quality of its courses (other prestigious universities had already launched similar services), but rather to the power of interaction it affords among students. Someone had this say: "People had never seen an educational project that delegates part of the work to the students themselves."

More broadly, one could say that communities are the basic unit of the Internet. The fact that you have friends, belong to a community, share your interests, support a cause, etc. make you a stakeholder in the Internet. There are therefore social networks beyond the realm of Facebook and Twitter. The great experiences of crowdfunding, crowdsourcing, viral communication, etc. do not necessarily go through the social networks. So we mustn’t neglect any of the networks that emerge on the web: massively multiplayer games, virtual campuses, virtual currencies with their user communities, NGO activists – all of these have the potential to greatly empower the individual.

What is your take on the living labs, which hope to bring users together upstream in the innovation process?

It's an excellent approach when it doesn't get caught in the rut of being an overly utilitarian "test bench". Living labs, as with all those third-party spaces that are fond the digital ecosystem (coworking spaces, Fablabs, etc.) are fertile when they are alive. They must leave room for the unexpected, for creative randomness ("serendipity"), develop subtle listening, propose new formats of interaction, find co-creation strategies, etc.

You also presided over the "Cap Digital" Centre for Competitiveness. How can companies rethink their innovation processes to take advantage of this new situation? In particular, how do you see the future of R&D in big companies?

Firstly, I think it is essential that the major technology companies pursue and intensify their R&D efforts. The basic materials of innovation come from research and development, and if there is one characteristic of our times, it is that the pace of innovation continues to accelerate.

One should now, however, confuse R&D with innovation. Innovation is not the natural continuation of R&D. There are big innovative companies that do not have R&D, particularly in the fields of service, content publishing and communications. And where innovation is concerned, every company should learn to better harness the strength of the multitude. Such as by involving their own employees in the multitude. The formats of open innovation, listening and working with one's market, and incorporating design into the heart of the decision-making process are starting to become rather well documented methods.

Does this vision of "open innovation" imply a change in the way intellectual property is managed?

This is a complex question.

Since the Internet has become popularised, it is caught between the opposing forces of openness, open source, and being free, on the one hand, and closure, protection and privatisation on the other. This tension is structural. One the one hand, there wouldn't be any progress, perhaps even a company, without information commons (what would science be if the results of research weren't accessible to other researchers?). At the same time, we are well aware that most economic sectors need clearly defined assets to prosper. It is likely that the best answer is to strike a happy medium.

But, personally, I think nowadays there is a tendency to broaden the scope of application of intellectual property too much. Copyright was originally intended for intellectual work which was a creative expression of the author's personality. That is to say, work from his very soul, as it were. I'm not so sure that people have put their soul into all the creation for which this type of copyright protection is being claimed.

You are now the director of Etalab, the agency responsible for promoting open data in Fraance. Could one say that shared data is the prerequisite of open innovation?

Yes, that is what I believe.

This is not the only reason it is good to open up and share public data: citizens also have a right to demand the accountability of authorities, which is the hallmark of democracies. And there are innovation strategies for the administration itself, since creating large open repositories is often a guarantee of improving an organisation's efficacy.

But supporting innovation is clearly a key component of opening up public data. The services developed by citizens, individuals or companies using such data are impressive. We see them at every edition of the Dataconnexion event launched by Etalab, and they are really quite impressive.

The opening of public data will increasingly become a springboard for industrial policy. It will become a strategy for attracting innovation to one's territory (since these creators work in the territories that have published data), even transforming public action into a platform and preventing these innovations from becoming monopolised by other players.

Is the opening of data often associated with public data? Should companies be encouraged to share their data more? How?

In this respect, the State began before the business, which is understandable. The right of citizens to access public information dates back a long time. It is enshrined in the Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen, and has been part of French legislation since the CADA Law of 1978.

The debate on the opening up of public data has therefore not been too concerned with data held by companies. But I think the question will arise one day.

It will be raised because large companies too will discover the potential to boost efficiency by placing large repositories online and increasing their transparency. It will also be raised since companies will one day likely have to identify the "information commons" that it owns and which must be made accessible to all. This will probably happen when the big data collectors reach such monopolistic proportions that States are forced to require that they open up these new kinds of infrastructures to competition.

Biography

Since January 2013 Henri Verdier has been the director of Etalab (tasked with the opening up of public data), coordinated by the Secretariat-General for the Modernisation of Public Action, itself a part of the Office of the Prime Minister. An alumnus of École normale supérieure, Henri Verdier was the CEO of Odile Jacob Multimédia, where his work included developing a set of teaching materials for the educational programme La main à la pâte along with Georges Charpak. In 2007, he joined Lagardère Active as Director of Innovation. In 2009, he joined Institut Télécom as Director of Foresight, responsible for establishing the think tank "Digital Future". He is also co-founder of MFG-Labs. Founding member of Cap Digital Centre for Competitiveness, where he served as Vice-Chairmen from 2006 to 2008, before acting as Chairman of the Board from 2008 to January 2013. He is a member of the Scientific Council of Institut Mines-Télécom. He is also a member of the ARCEP Foresight Committee and the CNIL Foresight Committee. Henri Verdier is the co-author of L'Age de la multitude (Armand Colin, 2012).

Published in COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGIES No. 89, 1st Quarter 2013

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COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGIES
Sophie NIGON
Managing Editor
s.nigon@idate.org

19Mar/130

Traffic Management Solutions

Tiana Ramahandry Senior Consultant, Digiworld by IDATE
Tiana RAMAHANDRY
Senior Consultant, Digiworld by IDATE


Traffic management: Operators and equipment providers facing change in network architectures

Traffic management is a crucial topic at undergoing Broadband MEA 2013 in Dubai where Roland Montagne, our Director of Telecoms Business Unit speaks about FTTH solutions and Mobile Backhaul Network

New solutions need to be implemented to meet the needs generated by growing traffic, especially at the fixed and mobile access layer. Our latest study answers key questions for traffic management: strategies by operators, equipment providers and Internet giants, technology solutions that can be deployed, as well as the regulatory framework around traffic growth.

New technology network deployments are needed to meet the need to increase network capacity

New technology network deployments are needed to meet the need to increase network capacity to absorb growing traffic, especially at the access layer - both fixed and mobile - but it will require massive investment. Other solutions could be deployed by the operators at the network level, like offloading to Wifi or femtocells, or other technologies to improve spectrum efficiency. However, these solutions won't guarantee the Quality of Experience (QoE).

Solutions: Deep Packet Inspection (DPI) and Policy Charging and Rules Function (PCRF)

Operators have several solutions for traffic management, by focusing on data traffic with Deep Packet Inspection (DPI) and Policy Charging and Rules Function (PCRF), functionalities that inspect packets, identifying, classifying and applying management policies to the packets transiting the network. Other approaches could also be implemented to put a priority on a particular service (DiffServ, IntServ, MPLS, etc.) thereby delivering QoS/QoE.

CDN is also an approach to traffic management

CDN is also an approach to traffic management to the extent that content distribution is optimised, partially justifying several operators deploying their own CDN
Several technology providers are present in the DPI and PCRF markets, which have seen several mergers and acquisitions as well as major partnerships over the last few years.

Regulators fear that operators favor their own content through traffic management

As for regulators, they fear the outcome of traffic management, which could be used by operators to favor their own content and restrain competition. This subject is at the heart of the debate on Net Neutrality. Work is being done in the European Union to evaluate if regulation is required.

Operators hopes are to capitalize on network resource optimization

Operators have deployed several technologies to manage their traffic problems and hope, beyond network resource optimisation, to capitalize on it. These technologies provide new ways of billing for differentiated services (tiered pricing), to manage traffic by reducing speed, fair use for equitable access to the network, and even "bill shock" prevention. Operators plan to provide enhanced offers, with the introduction of packages based on applications and even turbo-boosts.

Telco CDN and traffic management are essential elements for operators who, beyond optimising their networks, can engage in a two-sided business model by generating new revenue coming from content providers (B2B2C) as well as users through differentiated offers.

Equipment providers are fully involved in traffic management solutions

Equipment providers are fully involved in traffic management solutions to meet their customers (operators), needs and have invested in markets outside their core business (CDN, DPI, PCRF, etc.) Software-Defined Networking now being pushed by several major equipment providers is an approach, which may eventually transform network infrastructure into a software platform, and suggests a trend toward network virtualisation.

Traffic management solutions

Traffic management solutions : Network Planning, Bandwidth optimisation, content distribution optimisation

Source: Digiworld by IDATE

Tiana RAMAHANDRY
Senior Consultant, Digiworld by IDATE
t.ramahandry@idate.org

More information on Traffic Management

18Mar/130

Satellite Broadcast: Main trends and impacts for the industry

Maxime Baudry, Co-Head of Satellite Practice at IDATE

Maxime Baudry
Co-Head of Satellite Practice at IDATE

Satellite TV broadcast booming in emerging countries

Satellite TV broadcast is put in the forefront with our analysts attending the Satellite 2013 summit in Washington, USA from march 18 to 21 2013

Satellite broadcasting is currently being led by the explosive development in emerging countries. According to IDATE’s findings, there were at year-end 2012, 372 million satellite households with more than a half located in emerging countries. As an example, the Indian satellite pay-TV market registered a growth of 20 million households in only two years, to reach an estimated base of 51 million subscribers at the end of 2012.

World's current satellite TV broadcast market

Between 2008 and 2011, close to 100 million households worldwide switched over to satellite TV, which is almost identical to how many viewers terrestrial TV lost during that time. To compare, cable TV gained 55.5 million households and IPTV 26.4 million during that period.

Breakdown of the globe’s TV households by access technology

Globe's TV households by access technology

Source: IDATE, World TV Markets, August 2012

Satellite TV is booming in emerging countries

Satellite broadcasting is currently being led by the explosive development in emerging countries. According to IDATE’s findings, there were at year-end 2012, 372 million satellite households with more than a half located in emerging countries. As an example, the Indian satellite pay-TV market registered a growth of 20 million households in only two years, to reach an estimated base of 51 million subscribers at the end of 2012.

Impacts of TV broadcasting for the satellite industry

These developments have great impact on satellite capacity, as it is estimated that emerging countries roughly accounted for 90% of the new satellite capacity leased in 2012. According to SES, the weight of emerging countries in the total demand of satellite capacity worldwide will move from 69% in 2012 to 76% in 2019. Whereas the Western Europe and North American markets are expected to register a CAGR of -0.3% and -0.5% respectively, the Latin American market will for instance grow at a CAGR of 6.3% and the Eastern European one at +3.3%.

Maxime Baudry
Co-Head of Satellite Practice at IDATE
m.baudry@idate.org

More information on Satellite Broadcast in our TV observatory

13Mar/130

LTE Global Pricing Strategies

Frédéric Pujol, Head of the radio technologies & spectrum practice, IDATE

Frédéric PUJOL
Head of the radio technologies & spectrum practice, IDATE

Expectations and forecasts of the future orientations of the mobile broadband market

Through the analysis of global leading telcos LTE pricing strategies, our team of IDATE analysts have identified four main trends happening in Q1 2013: Multi-device connectivity strategies, Emergence of new high-speed data services, A greater and manageable quality of service resulting in new price plans and the apparition of LTE Advanced, a faster and less costly band for operators.

Multi Device Strategies

Introduced by Verizon Wireless through its shared dataplans, not only is it very successful but also represents a huge opportunity to leverage its LTE network in the long term with two growth opportunities:
- Data consumption growth introduced by the incentive of using “big screen” devices such as tablets, laptops and connected TV’s for HD video watching. The more devices there are, the more data will be consumed and it will make more subscribers to upgrade to larger data cap plans

- Multi-platform approach supporting the new ‘content everywhere’ trend and allowing services ubiquity: a Netflix subscriber can watch the beginning of a video on his mobile and finish it on his tablet or laptop, starting where he left off, with a unique account.

LTE major runners strategic positionning

major Global 2013 LTE actors strategic positionning
Source: Digiworld by IDATE

High-Speed data services

LTE allows developing new services that require a large data bandwidth and that could not exist with 3G: some already existed with fixed broadband (HD VoD, cloud services) and some are dedicated to mobile usages (Rich Communications Suite and car black box among the latter). Moreover telcos are starting to propose LTE services so as to counter OTT (over the top) services.
These services are either free or available through additional monthly subscription. Moreover, the Evolved Multimedia Broadcast Multicast Service will allow new video services without the need of a specific frequency layer.

A greater and manageable quality of service

Quality of service is the most important LTE innovation as it can be managed from end to end on a mobile network. Classes of priority can be created and managed allowing Swisscom to segment their offer not by data usage but by bandwidth, which stresses the need of consistent quality over the totality of the network. For example when 100 Mbps are advertised clients are less prone to accept irregularities.

LTE Advanced

Korean operators expect to launch LTE-Advanced by mid-2013, this is the new generation of LTE. Its spectral efficiency is four to five times greater than 3G where LTE is only 3 times greater. This implies that the cost per MB will fall for operators and will orient strategies towards higher or ultimately unlimited data caps and rate plans differentiated trough quality of service.

LTE Revenue Forecast (by Region, in million EUR)

LTE Revenue Forecast 2012-2016 by region
Source : Digiworld by IDATE

Frédéric PUJOL
Head of Mobile & Spectrum Practice at IDATE
f.pujol@idate.org

More information on LTE Global Pricing Strategies