9fév/160

Telecom & IT Convergence

GAUDEMER_Julien_blog_NB

Julien Gaudemer
Project Manager, IDATE DigiWorld

 

What belongs together, grows together

 

Converging markets provide a bright future in terms of market growth. Take Enterprise Cloud Computing, for instance: we sized the market – IaaS, PaaS and SaaS revenues altogether – at EUR 80.2bn in 2015, in 2020 we forecast that this number will more than double: EUR 192.4bn with SaaS still as strongest revenue segment, but IaaS coming close behind.

Why convergence matters

The convergence of telecom and IT B2B markets consists in the development of services by IT players on telecom markets, and by telecom players on IT markets. It comes mainly from the development of the Internet, of Internet access for consumers and businesses, and of services over IP. Because of this, some telecom and IT services can be provided transparently by networks. Technologies such as voice-over-IP or cloud computing have thus emerged in recent years relying on broadband access, and commoditised IT systems. Our latest study has a focus –for IT markets– on cloud computing, big data, security (including management solutions known as Bring Your Own Device (BYOD) and IT consulting. For telecom markets, we focused on unified communications (including collaborative tools) and M2M (on the service stack only). These markets are those where both IT players and telecom players are providing services. However, not all these players are positioned on converging markets. Furthermore, businesses have invested heavily in IT systems and services and can be expected to continue to invest as their business issues can be answered by telecom and IT services. Among business needs, analytics and big data seems to be the most important, along with reducing costs and overheads as the first strategic business priority.

How telecom and IT services meet current business needs

schema_tel&itconv

* NB: Security does not fit the selected business needs in this table, but it does answer a major need for better security, in a context of important cybersecurity threats.

Source: IDATE, Telecom & IT Convergence, November 2015

IT players are keeping a majority of market share on all converging markets: this is estimated by IDATE as between 60 and 75% on telecom converging markets, and between 90 and 99% on IT converging markets, where the IT players’ market share remain very important. In volume, the most important converging market is that of IT consulting services, reaching more than 700 billion EUR in 2015, with 95% market share held by IT players. Even if the overall convergence is leading to telcos and IT players competing on specific markets, their targets remain different. This distinction explains the asymmetry of market share between telcos and IT players on these markets. Large IT players mainly address large accounts, providing highly customised solutions and usually no ‘off-the-shelf’ or ‘turn-key’ solutions. Their solutions are especially designed to meet the needs of large accounts, each of which has a different IT systems configuration. For instance, on the cloud computing market, IT players mainly provide private-cloud services as well as hybrid cloud as it involves customised private-cloud services. Smaller IT players, and especially the pure ones, can address both large accounts and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) as they can provide turn-key solutions, which is type usually chosen by SMEs.

Telecom players (mainly telcos) have a role to play on all converging markets, but with other customer targets than IT players. Telcos have earned a strong degree of trust from their customers, both large accounts as well as SMEs. This long-term relationship allows them to provide and to sell additional services, complementary to their traditional communication services. Telcos therefore provide bundled services that include communication services (mobile and fixed), cloud storage, office suite in Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) (cloud) and a basic security suite (firewall, anti-virus and VPN). These services are especially appreciated by SMEs as they are looking for low-cost turn-key solutions. Telcos do not develop all of these bundled services, usually just reselling some of them, such as cloud SaaS products or security products. These bundled offers are, however, almost the only ones on the market: telcos thus have here a strong competitive position for this kind of business. In terms of investments, telcos mainly provide these services over their own infrastructure (without investing strongly in new capex), or resell products. In terms of revenues, these additional products do generate a measurable amount – estimated at between 5 and 10% of overall telco revenues.

Growth potential for telcos in the SaaS and IaaS markets

schema_tel&itconv_2

Source: IDATE, Telecom & IT Convergence, November 2015

 

Get more valuable insights about convergence enablers and business needs in our recently published market report

 

8fév/160

Innovation & Productivity – Interview with Philippe AGHION

CS100_Aghion_Photo

Published in DigiWorld Economic Journal  DWEJ No. 100

Interview with Philippe AGHION

College de France, London School of Economics

Conducted by Gilbert CETTE & Yves GASSOT

 
C&S:  Is more competition always favourable to boost innovation? Many representatives of the telecom industry are arguing that the innovation and investment in this sector is badly impacted by the intensity of competition, do you share this analysis?

Philippe AGHION:  My work with Richard Blundell and co-authors shows that competition boosts innovation for firms that are close to the technological frontier (this is the escape competition effect) whereas it may discourage innovation in firms far below the technological frontier (this is the discouragement effect). Overall, the effect of competition on innovation is an inverted-U: innovation increases with competition at low levels of competition and it decreases with competition at high initial levels of competition.

Productivity has slowed down in the U.S. and in the main developed countries since the mid 2000s. How do you explain this slow-down when we consider the dramatic momentum we know in the digital economy? Are you optimistic about a new productivity surge in the near future?

Part of the slowdown in the U.S. may be due to the fact the fact that the ICT wave has partly run out of steam. But I also believe that innovation is not properly taken into account when measuring productivity growth, and this is particularly true in sectors that experience a high degree of firm turnover and where innovations are made by newcomers in the market. In the long run I am optimistic for at least two reasons. First, the ICT revolution has improved the technology for producing new ideas. Second, with the advent of globalization, the returns to innovation have greatly increased.

Are ICTs the main driver for innovation allowing for a productivity surge in the future?

I think that with the 3D printing and the clouds, the ICT sector still has glorious days ahead. But I also anticipate breakthroughs in other sectors, for example in the renewable energy and in the health/biotech sector.

Is according to you innovation a factor of inequality increase?

My recent work shows that innovation contributes to increasing the fraction of income earned by the top richest 1% or 0.1%. By this inequality is temporary as innovation rents are eroded by imitation and disappear when current innovations are eventually replaced by newer innovations (the Schumpeterian process of “creative destruction”). Moreover, my co-authors and I show that innovation does not increase overall inequality and that it enhances social mobility (again as a result of creative destruction).

Philippe AGHION is a Professor at the College de France and at the London School of Economics, and a fellow of the Econometric Society and of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. His research focuses on the economics of growth. With Peter HOWITT, he pioneered the so-called Schumpeterian Growth paradigm which was subsequently used to analyze the design of growth policies and the role of the state in the growth process. Much of this work is summarized in their joint book Endogenous Growth Theory (MIT Press, 1998) and The Economics of Growth (MIT Press, 2009), in his book with Rachel GRIFFITH on Competition and Growth (MIT Press, 2006), and in his survey "What Do We Learn from Schumpeterian Growth Theory" (joint with U. AKCIGIT & P. HOWITT). In 2001, Philippe Aghion received the Yrjo Jahnsson Award of the best European economist under age 45, and in 2009 he received the John Von Neumann Award.

More information on DigiWorld Economic Journal No. 100 "Digital innovation vs. secular stagnation?" on our website :

Order No. 100  Discover IDATE's publications & studies

25jan/160

Médias-Télécoms : le retour de la convergence ?

Gassot-Yves

Yves Gassot
Directeur général, IDATE DigiWorld

Et si Jean-Marie Messier avait eu raison trop tôt ? C’est la question de beaucoup d’observateurs devant les opérations réalisées en 2015. Rappelons que nous avons vu en 2015 le N°1 des télécommunications aux États-Unis prendre le contrôle du N°2 de la "Pay-TV" tandis que Verizon lançait un service vidéo sur mobile, Vivendi acquérir le statut de premier actionnaire de Telecom Italia, le patron d’Altice et de SFR investir dans les médias et les droits du football, suivant en cela BT qui avait mis plus de 1 milliard EUR en février pour s’assurer une part des droits exclusifs de la Premier league sur trois ans…

Vers une désintermédiation de l’accès aux programmes ?

Au-delà des arguments du débat théorique et déjà ancien des économistes sur les limites des stratégies d’intégration verticale, il nous faut reconnaître une tendance nouvelle et de fond qui semble aller dans un sens contraire au retour de la convergence. À l’heure de la généralisation du haut et très haut débit, d’une concurrence de plus en plus effective entre les fournisseurs d’accès, d’une attention scrupuleuse à la neutralité de l’Internet mais qui s’accompagne aussi d’une forte polarisation des applications et des internautes sur quelques plateformes, il n’est pas sûr que les opérateurs télécoms (ou les câblo-opérateurs) aient vu leurs atouts se renforcer pour s’imposer comme les distributeurs prépondérants des médias audiovisuels. La tendance est à la globalisation et à la désintermédiation.

En caricaturant à peine, avec un serveur et quelques prestataires techniques, vous pouvez valoriser des droits audiovisuels à l’échelle internationale. Hollywood dominait l’industrie, mais les grands studios avaient néanmoins besoin des réseaux câblés aux États-Unis ou, à l’international, des chaînes de télévision largement nationales… Aujourd’hui, ils observent Netflix, Amazon, YouTube ou les ambitions de Facebook dans la vidéo et n’hésitent pas à tester et à investir dans des stratégies de distribution directe. Dans ce contexte, ce sont les droits audiovisuels qui comptent et, derrière, la taille qui vous permet de les détenir par acquisition ou autoproduction en les amortissant sur des dizaines de millions de consommateurs. Les stratégies les plus audacieuses et ambitieuses des opérateurs télécoms dans l’audiovisuel doivent donc trouver leur cohérence dans la taille qu’ils ont acquise ou dans les anticipations d’une consolidation internationale de leur secteur.

L’investissement dans les programmes : un facteur de consolidation pour les opérateurs télécoms ?

Si ce raisonnement sommaire constitue bien la toile de fond, à bien des égards nouvelle, de la relation contenant-contenu, il ne condamne évidemment pas toutes les initiatives audiovisuelles des opérateurs télécoms ou des câblo-opérateurs, même de tailles modestes. Ils sont légitimes dans la construction d’un écosystème qui joue sur les bundles – les offres triple-play ou quadruple-play pour renforcer la fidélité de leur clientèle. À cet égard, les évolutions de la technologie rendent moins coûteuse la construction d’une offre audiovisuelle panachant l’accès aux chaînes de télévision et le référencement ergonomique et marketing de services OTT (Over-The-Top). Mais cela ne permet pas de voir dans les opérateurs haut débit fixes et mobiles, une vocation naturelle à devenir des distributeurs rémunérés (de façon significative) par les détenteurs des droits. Les plus gros opérateurs peuvent investir lourdement dans les droits et même des droits exclusifs, avec des ambitions d’un retour sur investissement. Ce sera souvent d’abord au titre des investissements marketing pour développer leur part de marché sur le haut débit, et désormais accélérer le passage des abonnés au très haut débit (fibre, 4G/5G). On précisera au passage que cette conviction n’interdit pas de voir dans la consolidation des opérateurs télécoms et des groupes de télévision (encore plus émiettés), et des partenariats entre eux, des éléments d’une stratégie industrielle pour que l’Europe ne soit pas condamnée à subir la nouvelle phase de globalisation de l’audiovisuel. Ce ne serait qu’en suivant cette analyse que l’on pourrait peut-être dire que Jean-Marie Messier a eu raison mais trop tôt…

Plus généralement, l’enjeu pour les opérateurs de télécommunications reste de pouvoir investir de façon rentable dans les réseaux du futur dont nos économies ont besoin. Dans cette perspective, la vidéo en particulier, et au-delà, toute la diversité des applications et services du cloud, constituent des facteurs très favorables. Pas seulement parce qu’elles offrent des occasions de diversification les opérateurs peuvent certes investir dans les OTT ou chercher à monétiser leurs données mais aussi et surtout parce qu’elles renforcent la valeur de l’accès à ces réseaux, qu’elles ouvrent des espaces de différenciation en installant une concurrence qui ne soit plus simplement basée sur les prix.

Cette tribune a été publiée dans Les Échos du 11 janvier 2016   
http://www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats/editos-analyses/021602940246-media-telecoms-le-nouvel-age-de-la-convergence-1191383.php

25jan/160

Nos prédictions pour 2016

Gassot-Yves

Yves Gassot
Directeur général, IDATE DigiWorld

 

Quels sont les sujets qui pourraient dominer l’actualité du numérique en 2016 ?

À l’examen des tendances de ces derniers mois, et après avoir écarté avec regrets des thématiques telles que – et dans le plus grand désordre – le démarrage de la réalité virtuelle, le G.fast et DOCSIS 3.1, la standardisation de la 5G, l’Internet of Things, l’intelligence artificielle, l’introduction de l’eSIM, la transformation numérique des verticaux, … nous retiendrons quatre sujets :

Video everywhere

C’est tout à la fois l’explosion de la consommation de données, sur tous les terminaux, alimentée par le trafic vidéo, la multiplication des offres vidéo des opérateurs cellulaires dans le sillage de l’offre Go90 (Verizon) ou de Binge On (T-Mobile), les enrichissements associés des plateformes LTE (LTE-A/B/U), la stratégie mondiale de Netflix en route pour les 100 millions d’abonnés à fin 2016, la course à la 4K et au HDR (High Dynamic Range), les débats sur l’harmonisation des copyrights en Europe…

Digital trust

La montée des risques de différentes natures sur les écosystèmes numériques génère un marché qui devrait croître deux fois plus vite que le marché global de l’IT. L’Europe devrait se doter d’ici la fin de l’année d’une nouvelle directive sur la protection des données. Une base nouvelle pour renégocier un accord Safe Harbour et progresser dans le TTIP ? Le phénomène du Ad blocking sera-t-il dépassé par les vertus attendues de la publicité programmatique ?...

Consolidation

En Europe, on va se demander jusqu’où peut aller le phénomène de consolidation, en s’interrogeant sur les synergies visées, les impacts potentiels sur les tarifs, la convergence fixe-mobile, les déploiements des accès à très haut débit fixes et mobiles…

Aux États-Unis, on ne sait pas encore :

si une guerre des prix pourrait démarrer dans les mobiles ?
si le câble va voir sa domination sur le marché du très haut débit menacé ?
si, à l’instar de l’Europe, s’amorcera une convergence fixe-mobile ?

FinTech

On y trouve tout autant une réserve d’innovations qu’un ensemble de menaces pour les banques, qui sont elles aussi engagées dans la transformation numérique, les espoirs du démarrage en vraie grandeur de la banque mobile pour les opérateurs télécoms, mais aussi pour de nombreux autres acteurs, les concepts qui font le buzz comme la crypto-monnaie et les blockchains…

Bonne année 2016 avec l’IDATE DigiWorld et nos rendez-vous DigiWorld Future et DigiWorld Summit !

> Lire également le point de vue d’Yves Gassot paru dans Les Echos : «Médias-Télécoms : le retour de la convergence ? »

 

25jan/160

Telco Video Strategies: Towards vertical integration for incumbent telcos?

BAJON_Jacques

Jacques Bajon
Head of Media & Digital Content Business Unit, IDATE DigiWorld

 

Without any surprise OTT Video represents the top traffic on both fixed and mobile networks – telcos have been investing in infrastructures without payback for traffic. In our recent study we highlight the positioning of several key players from the telecom industry and stress out the pros and cons from two-sided business models

Initially, incumbent telcos launched video services for raising customer levels and ARPU gains. They were indeed keen to capture a share of the TV market. They then added features to enhance their value proposition, facing the competition of incumbent TV players and the threat of the over-the-top (OTT) world. Time shifting, multiscreen viewing, live streaming and video on demand, both transaction-based (TVOD) and subscription-based (SVOD), have been progressively adopted by telcos.

Examples of telcos broadcast broadband TV

schema_telco_video

Source: IDATE, in Telco Video Strategies, December 2015

The market at present is a two-sided one where incumbent telcos are targeting both high- and low-income households.

As a first step, this concretises new investments in premium video content, including some initial steps in UHDTV. This again is a must for incumbent telcos, in order to:

Cross-sell: launch attractive video offerings to promote the sale of multiplay (triple- or quad-play) subscriptions

Upsell: use video as a driver to gain higher-income subscribers and to migrate broadband subscribers to FTTH

Secondly, the will to address lower-income households and the ‘new generation’ of cord-cutters and
cord-nevers is leading incumbent telcos to deepen their segmentation of video services, with
more personalisation
:

Skinny-TV bundles, generally providing a basic of TV channels bundled with Internet access for an entry-level subscription price

SVOD services (including third-party, thanks to platform openness) in order to provide the ‘best of’ breed of services and more individual subscription options

Moreover, the development of programmatic advertising, based on their consumer data, is in development and could be a driver for revenues.

The search for operational flexibility and efficiency has also be permanent for incumbent telcos, in different ways:

In order to shorten their ‘Time to video market’, operators should leverage hybrid TV broadcast-broadband solutions through DTT and satellite, to enter new markets, first with OTT-only TV delivery

Telco CDN is must-have for telcos, to better manage OTT video traffic on their network than a revenue generator

Cloud, centralised, solutions should develop step by step in order to easily integrate the unification of consumer interfaces, to create ‘super head-end’ for the rationalisation of OTT services and perhaps to develop future-proof solutions for their video service within, or eventually outside, their network and programmatic advertising services, to launch cloud-PVR services…

Trade-offs can also occur around video hardware at home, including STB-less, skinny STBs or TV dongles around such issues as the ‘operator as an app’ model, including a balance between Smart TV sets and stand-alone streaming boxes.

At the end of the day, facing the competition of Internet giants, the benchmark will be the best possible user experience, to be gained through attractions such as very high-speed networks, flexible and user-friendly service platforms, innovation in services and top-quality content.

Change in IPTV’s share of TV households worldwide, 2012-2016 (million TV households)

schema_telco_video2

Source: IDATE, in Telco Video Strategies, December 2015

Find out more details regarding market framework and players positioning for Telco Video Strategies in our dedicated market report

25jan/160

FTTH vs LTE : Une relation “je t’aime moi non plus” – Lequel prendra l’avantage sur le long terme ?

MANERO-Carole

Carole Manero
Director of Studies, IDATE DigiWorld

Dans les économies développées, l’’évolution du marché haut débit est en phase de transition vers le très haut débit et la convergence fixe-mobile. Les Telcos doivent réagir, spécialement sous la contrainte d’un processus de consolidation continu des industries de la communication. En 2015, les fusions & acquisitions ont déjà perturbées profondément les structures du marché. .

Dans le fixe comme dans le mobile, l'heure est au redéploiement du marché vers le haut et surtout le très haut débit (>30 Mbps), à travers les NGA. Mais cela se fait dans des conditions et à des rythmes qui se distinguent.

Dans le mobile, le LTE connaît un déploiement rapide et des taux d'abonnement très élevés dans les pays occidentaux. On peut considérer que 80% des habitants seront dans des zones couvertes par les réseaux LTE en début d'année 2016 pour le Japon et la Corée du Sud, l'Amérique du Nord, les grands marchés européens (plutôt de l'ordre de 60% seulement en Chine). Au-delà d'une couverture atteignant rapidement 90% et plus de la population dans les marchés avancés, le LTE va se caractériser par des étapes ouvrant l'accès à des débits plus élevés (>30 Mbps, à travers notamment l'agrégation de fréquences, la densification des stations dans les zones urbaines et l'utilisation de small cells associées à des canalisations larges dans les bandes hautes). À partir de 2020, ces développements vont s'intégrer dans les lancements de la 5G, qui a vocation à intégrer des débits de l'ordre du Gigabit.

A comparison of fixed and mobile coverage in some of Europe’s largest markets (30 Mbps in LTE and FTTH/B), 2012-2020

Schema_FTTHvsLTE

Source: IDATE, LTE vs. fibre, December 2015

Pour les accès filaires fixes, la progression des taux de couverture est globalement plus lente. Elle est aussi plus complexe puisqu'elle résulte d'un mix de technologies spécifiques aux différents marchés nationaux, schématiquement :

­- la technologie VDSL, qui utilise au moins partiellement la boucle locale du réseau cuivre du téléphone, permet d'accéder à des débits >30 Mbps, voire plus de 50 Mbps (notamment à travers des développements de type vectoring ou bonding) ;

­- les technologies DOCSIS, propres aux câblo-opérateurs, qui réutilisent la partie finale du câble coaxial des réseaux de télédistribution. La très grosse majorité d'entre eux commercialisent des accès à plus de 100 Mbps tandis que des offres Gigabits devraient prochainement apparaître ;

- la technologie FTTH, qui nécessite des investissements et des délais importants pour déployer la fibre jusque chez l'abonné ; les débits offerts sont de 100 Mbps et vont s'étendre progressivement vers les Gigabits.

Dans les marchés avancés, les déploiements NGA fixes et mobiles vont aller de pair, même si les premières observations et les prévisions donnent un avantage en termes de rapidité de couverture au haut débit mobile. Ce contexte donne lieu à des stratégies de convergence fixe-mobile, clairement illustrées en Europe par de nombreuses opérations de fusions et acquisitions.

Le mouvement de convergence s'explique plus précisément par les avantages qui sont associés :

­  a) aux bundles et synergies de cross-selling (sur les fichiers clients, les boutiques, les applications et les contenus vidéo) ;

­  b) aux logiques d'intégration des infrastructures fixes et mobiles (au titre du partage du backboning, au travers du Wifi qui constitue dès aujourd'hui un lien effectif entre le fixe et le mobile, mais aussi de plus en plus au titre des économies de backhauling dans un contexte marqué par la généralisation des small cells dans les zones denses, et enfin avec un partage des infrastructures logicielles SDN/NFV). À terme les services mobiles deviendront une part significative des revenus des réseaux fixes, tandis que ces derniers supporteront des accès de proximité en mode radio.

Les pays les plus avancés dans la convergence fixe-mobile sont l'Espagne et la France (plus de 40% des abonnés ont opté pour un même opérateur pour les services fixes et mobiles). Mais c'est plus généralement que la concurrence en Europe se structure progressivement autour d'opérateurs fixes-mobiles, à travers notamment de nombreuses opérations de fusions et acquisitions.

Les États-Unis sont en retrait pour des raisons qui ont trait à la fragmentation des opérateurs fixes, câblo-opérateurs et opérateurs télécoms, qui ont des présences régionales ou locales. Toutefois, les câblo-opérateurs investissent dans le Wifi et manifestent un intérêt pour les services mobiles (Comcast) tandis qu'AT&T, en prenant le contrôle de DirecTV, intègre à sa façon des services mobiles et fixes au plan national.

Dans la mesure où une part résiduelle du territoire des pays avancés restera probablement à l'horizon 2020 non-desservie par les technologies FTTH/B des opérateurs, les accès sans-fil et principalement le LTE devraient alors être commercialisés comme un accès de substitution (en complément des offres satellite et parfois à travers des routeurs hybrides LTE/DSL). Cette configuration est aujourd'hui testée par plusieurs opérateurs, aux États-Unis ou en Europe. Elle se combinera avec le maintien dans les zones urbaines d'une population de clients purement mobiles, y compris pour l'accès à Internet. La disponibilité de ressources en fréquences supplémentaires (bande 700 MHz notamment), souvent associée à des obligations de couverture des zones peu denses, devrait également faciliter cette approche.

Dans les économies émergentes et singulièrement en Afrique, l'accès à l'Internet, encore souvent réservé à une fraction minoritaire de la population, va se faire principalement par l'extension de la 3G et le déploiement du LTE. Toutefois, les besoins des entreprises et la démographie des villes vont générer progressivement des investissements dans des réseaux filaires en fibre et amorcer un mouvement de convergence fixe-mobile.

Plus d’information sur la convergence Fixe-Mobile et des données et analyses sur LTE et FTTx dans notre rapport dédié

 

Remplis sous: FTTx, LTE Aucun commentaire
25jan/160

M2M: un nouveau momentum

ROPERT_Samuel

Samuel Ropert
Consultant Senior, IDATE DigiWorld

Un marché mondial de 30 milliards EUR tiré par l’automobile, électronique grand public & utilities

L’équipe de consultants IDATE DigiWorld vient de publier son rapport sur le marché mondial du M2M livré avec sa base de données. L’occasion de mettre à jour les tendances de marché en volume et en valeur ainsi que les prévisions à 2019 par zone géographique et pour 25 pays.

La dynamique du marché M2M pour les cinq prochaines années repose clairement sur trois secteurs en phase d’adoption accélérée : automobile, électronique grand public & utilities.

Ces dernière années, le marché a été tiré par un petit nombre de verticaux comme la gestion de flotte ou la gestion d’actifs industriels ou de sécurité, mais pour un marché qui reste malgrès tout limité en volume (on compte en dizaine de millions).

Pour les prochaines années, la croissance sera tirée par de nouveaux grands verticaux (dont l’automobile, électronique grand public & utilities) avec des volumes potentiels bien plus importants en raison de l’intégration dans des objets de grande consommation (de l’ordre du milliard) plutôt que des produits industriels. De nouvelles mesures réglementaires vont venir stimuler la demande M2M dans l’automobile, notamment en Europe, mais aussi pour les utilities dans certaines parties du monde. Cependant, des barrières sont susceptibles de freiner la croissance de ces marchés. A court terme, certaines des applications attendues, et à fort impact sur le marché M2M, sont régulièrement reportées (comme la réglementation eCall en Europe dont la mise en application est désormais programmée pour octobre 2018). Quant au marché des utilities, il est jugé comme moins attractif avec des opportunités plus limitées pour les opérateurs télécoms (seul le concentrateur (qui fait office de hub) disposera d’une connection cellulaire). A l’exception du Royaume-Uni où le concentrateur sera installé dans presque tous les foyers (pour deux plus grandes régions sur trois).

Dans le futur, le marché se focalisera sur des segments émergeants comme le suivi du patient et la maison connectée.

Le marché M2M reste porté par une forte croissance

En 2014, le nombre de modules M2M actifs (toutes technologies confondues) a atteint 1,2 milliards d’unités. Et ill devraient dépasser les 4.1 milliards dès 2019, avec un taux de croissance annuél moyen de 29% :

Les ventes de modules M2M pour le marché cellulaire se montent à 290 millions au niveau mondial, soit un marché de plus de 30 milliards d’euros, corresponsant à une croissance de 10% en valeur et de 26% en volume par rapport à 2014. Une grande partie des revenus venant des services logiciels et IT.

La zone Asie-Pacifique dominera l’Europe et l’Amérique du Nord en volume. Tandis qu’en valeur, l’Europe restera le marché le plus important suivie par l’Asie-Pacifique. Notons que depuis 2012, la Chine a pris la tête du marché mondial M2M en dépassant les Etats-Unis en termes de modules cellulaires installés.

Les acteurs du M2M sont à la recherche d’opportunités au-delà de leur domaine d’expertise

Le marché M2M offre de réelles opportunités pour les Telcos, en dépit d’un ARPU faible et en déclin, car il porte sur des affaires à long terme, à faible taux de churn et sur des contrats moyen se comptant en milliers de cartes SIM. La seule connectivité représentera par exemple plus de 20% du total des cartes SIM pour les telcos européens. Les telcos essayent également de consolider leurs positions sur la connectivité en mettant en place des partenariats avec des op^érateurs LPWA, leur permettant de s’adresser à de nouveaux types d’applications.

En totalisant les deux tiers du marché, les services IT sont la clés du marché avec des acteurs en position d’en retirer des bénéfices tout au long de la chaîne de valeur. Les grands acteurs de l’IT proposent des services basés sur le Cloud et le Big data (analytiques principalement) afin de faire émerger de nouvelles opportunités d’affaires.

Enfin, les fournisseurs de modules sont eux aussi à la recherche de solutions leur permettant de contrer la baisse rapide des prix unitaires. Après avoir réorienté leur stratégie autour des services IT (à travers des plateformes de services), certains proposent également des services de connectivité leur permettant de fournir des offres bout-en-bout (notamment via les acquisitions de MVNO par Sierra et Neul acheté par Huawei).

schema_new_momentum

Plus pour d'informations sur ce marché consultez le rapport dédié

www.idate.org      www.digiworldsummit.com      www.digiworldweek.com

25jan/160

3D Printing: Does mass-manufacturing loom on the horizon?

Hao_Yi

Hao Yi
Emerging technologies expert, IDATE DigiWorld

3D printing market revenues will skyrocket from 3bn in 2013 to 21bn USD in 2020, representing an annual growth of 31.6%

 

 

Three-dimensional (3D) printing, included in the broader term of ‘Additive Manufacture’ (AM), refers to the various processes used in the manufacture of products which comprise the depositing or fusing of materials layer by layer. The 3D-printing process can, though, date back to the 1980s, when additive manufacturing (AM) was practised for rapid prototyping in industrial applications.

Today, 3D printing (3DP) has already been used across a wide range of verticals, spanning out from aerospace, automotive and medical industries to the consumer market. Rapid prototyping and tooling remain the most common applications, and SLS and FDM are still the dominant technologies for 3DP.

Regarding the landscape of 3D-printing ecosystems, 3D-printing systems are the largest value contributor, accounting for nearly 50% of total value and it will remain the same for the next five to ten years. 3D Systems and Stratasys, as market leaders, have a greater value chain integration and vertical coverage in an attempt to reinforce their leading position in the value chain.

Value chain positioning of manufacturers in 3D printing market

Scema_3D_Print

Source: IDATE in 3D Printing, December 2015

Since the process is still highly fragmented, software, marketplaces and service platforms, despite relatively lower value share, are very essential players to orchestrate the activities of designers, makers, distributors and customers across the whole value chain. Strengthened partnerships among those players has thus been observed: Autodesk and Dassault Systèmes, as software leaders, are working with, for example, Sculpteo and 3D Hubs to build a smoother 3D-printing experience.

On the market side, 3DP has been experiencing a strong uptrend since 2009 when key FDM patents expired - it took the AM industry only five years (2009-2014) to produce its second billion USD in revenue. The worldwide revenue, which comprises the printers, materials, software and associated services, is expected to grow at a CAGR of 31.6% on average between 2013 and 2020, from 3.07 billion USD in 2013 to 21 billion USD by 2020.

The industrial and enterprise markets (B2B) are the major targets for 3DP. On-demand manufacturing has become a ‘standard service’ for many established manufacturers, given its potential to disrupt the traditionally centralised production for industrial and enterprise customers. Meanwhile, IDATE sees the hybrid processes that additive manufacturing fits into existing production lines as being of high priority and having a high potential.

Consumer 3DP, where proliferating start-ups are active, is a reality today via service platforms. However, the opportunities in consumer 3DP (B2B2C, B2C) have no settled business norms yet - as more companies aggressively enter the playground; the rules of competition are constantly being re-written. Players would do well to consider their value chain coverage and business model for the next step, as well as their investment in printing capability.

Overall prices will continue to go down and standardisation and IP protection are underway, The pursuit of improved printing performance, ease of use, well-orchestrated processes and expanded global availability remain the centre of gravity for 3DP industry. However, IDATE expects that, the paradigm shift of 3D printing for mass manufacture of final parts is very unlikely to take place within the next decade – and neither is personal at-home printing – before there are breakthroughs in material availability, printing speeds and productivity levels.

Find out more on the outlook for additive manufacturing & 3D printing in our dedicated market report

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25jan/160

[CR] Smart City Forum : First scorecard and new prospects

Smartcity_Forum

 

IDATE Insights : Philippe BAUDOUIN, Head of digital plan practice

5th edition of the Smart City Forum. This year with a focus on territorial strategy, and a second focus on the predictive analysis for the development of Smart Cities.

  • First challenge on climate change, especially with the COP21 conference organized in France.
    Smart City could allow making savings in terms of gas emission, equivalent to India production.
  • 5 years ago, Smart City was a hot topic for very few cities. In 2014, 50% of 100’000+ cities were involved in Smart City development. Besides, the Caisse des Dépôts launched an initiative to help smaller cities to develop Smart City initiatives as well.
  • Various approaches of the smart city : the block, the vertical, the citizen, …

 

Round-table: From experiments to strategic visions: how cities are becoming smart cities?

  • Norbert FRIANT, Responsable Service Aménagement et Usages du Numérique, Rennes Métropole
  • Benjamin FAVRIAU, Chef de projet Smart City, Mairie de Paris
  • Hélène ROUSSEL, Développement filière d’excellence, Montpellier Méditerranée Métropole

Smartcity_Forum

Flash-back regarding what have been done regarding smart cities in your city ?

Montpellier is working on smart city for 5 years, and is currently in the end of a learning phase. Legislative tools and synchronization are complex to develop such initiatives. In 2010, Montpellier has been involved in the label “Eco Cité” allowing the city to start a reflexion with IBM and local labs on Smart City. 4 fields investigated : mobility, floods prevention, risk management. Currently at the end of the trial phase.

Rennes has the moto “living smart” since 1983. The city is very involved in data use and management, thinking early of open data, big data. Worked with Dassault to develop projects around data and worked with Montpellier to co-create data-based services.

Paris started an initiative for Smart and Sustainable City since last elections. The idea was to provide tools to the city to achieve its main goal regarding mobility, wastes, … The city is therefore currently developing new tools around data, and try to federate an ecosystem around data.

The position of the local administration regarding the development of Smart City

In Rennes, the role of the city and the “Metropole” is to be a data “régie”. The aim is to gather data, and manage initiatives around data, stimulate an ecosystem, and provide a “citizen fabric”. One of the issues for a data-based application is to create an audience.

In Paris, the city managed to release data for now. The idea is to open a reflexion on data to all partners that could be interested in the use of data. The city try to develop a territorial sense to federate players around data.

In Montpellier, the city was involved on open data. The “metropole” was involved on its side on data already used. Montpellier is therefore between both initiatives.

There is beside a challenge on the Internet of Things and connected objects, and how to use and federate data generated by these objects placed on the city. Telcos are involved, software editors as well. In Rennes, they work with the development of open technical bricks. The role of the city is to stimulate the local ecosystem around smart city. Rennes worked with research labs around Lora and the Lora alliance.

It can be the charge of cities to define a de-facto standard, at the national level.

About the link between Smart City and the French tech ecosystem

In Montpellier, the dynamic have been lunched concretely in 2015, especially with the Big Data Challenge. The Smart City is an enabler of the French Tech initiative and ecosystem, and the development of start-up community.
Paris worked with Numa (start-up incubator), to develop applications around Big Data.
Rennes also worked on data-based applications, around geo-tourism, developing new services, tested by local citizens.
There is also a culture of “free of charge” services that is killing start-ups, living more or less on public subventions rather than on a sustainable business model. The other players that are correctly living on smart city are large players including SNCF, Google, Cisco, IBM. Some of them do not release their data and are blocking the development of big data, especially start-ups.
Rennes and Montpellier answered to a call for projects in 2014 and have been chosen : they have launched jointly 10 challenges on Big Data. 4 companies from Rennes and 4 from Montpellier are involved in these Challenges.

 

Keynote : Gabrielle GAUTHEY, Head of Investments, Caisse des Dépôts

Gabrielle Gauthey, Caisse des dépôts

Gabrielle Gauthey, Head of Investments - Caisse des dépôts

 

The smart city can take profit from the legacy city. The smart city is involved in the territorial transition, in the climate transition, the digital transition and the demographic transition.

How can we see the intelligence of a city (for the Caisse des Dépôts) :

  • More fluid
  • More sustainable
  • More sober
  • More resilient
  • More inclusive (social integration)

Some original example of mobility / smart city solutions provided in France :

  • Nantes developed a “pay-as-you-use” model for transport, bus, tram and train.
  • Lille developed the concept of shifting time mobility: you are paid to shift your working time to take the bus out of the peak hour.

Infrastructure is key for the development of Smart Cities, especially to gather and store the data.

There are also needs for fixed mutualized telecom networks that are neutral and provided by the city. “It is necessary to have an open infrastructure to avoid silos and to release innovation”.

Governance is necessary to manage initiatives (by the city especially), and the citizens have to be involved in the development of these initiatives and applications.

 

Roundtable - Are predictive technologies the next stage in the smart city’s development?

Moderated by : Albert ASSERAF, Directeur général stratégie, Etudes et Marketing France, J.C. Decaux

 

Presentation of round table members’ involvement in predictive analysis for Smart City:

SystemX: Research labs placed in the Paris-Saclay innovation cluster. Work especially on smart territories, and especially on predictive data analysis. To work on transportation systems, it is necessary to modelling transport networks in order to understand the how it works. It leads to understand how people flows are moving, by investigating at stations, analyzing location-based data from mobile operators, or location-based tweets.

IBM – Smarter Cities: Analytics is only one step among others on the “smart” aspect of the city. In 2020, there will be 1.7 Mbyte generated each second for each person around the world. It is therefore necessary to use these data to generate value, in order to improve living conditions in the city. IBM worked with the Chinese government to anticipate pollution levels 72 hours upstream. The territory have to stay at the center of the smart city initiative, and at the core of the governance.

Optimod – Lyon: technology is a mean and not a way to make investment. The main goal remains related to the city: mobility, environment, … Optimod deals with transportation in Lyon. The idea is to answer issues regarding environment: reducing gas emission, reducing transport costs (including cars and public transport). The first option is to change behaviors regarding cars, the other option is to change infrastructures. Digital can help changing things waiting for disruptive options in terms of transportation. Optimod works on predictive analysis especially for traffic lights optimization. Companies like Uber do not generate value, rather destroy value at the scale of the city. It is important to keep the value within the city and to preserve the economic ecosystem.

Ruckus Wireless: Californian company working on smart city communication infrastructures. Some developing countries are more advanced than developed countries in terms of Smart City initiative. In the US, Ruckus worked in San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Jose: developed services with real-time parking places available. Also analyzed data from SingTel in Singapore to know how long people are waiting for trains, by analyzing wifi connections density on the platform. In NYC, provide Wifi interactive hot-spots, to replace the existing phone booths, providing especially free calls over-wifi on these hot spots.

13jan/160

DigiWorld Economic Journal (DWEJ) No. 100 – Interview with Joel MOKYR

CS100_MOKYR_Photo

Published in DWEJ No. 100

 

Interview with Joel MOKYR

Professor of Arts and Sciences and Professor of Economics and History, Northwestern University, USA

Sackler Professor (by spec. appt.), Tel Aviv University, Israel

Conducted by Gilbert CETTE & Yves GASSOT

 

C&S: As a well-known economic historian, you have done extensive work and research on industrial revolutions and the conditions of emergence of British leadership in the 19th century. This could have led you, like your colleague and friend from Northwestern University - Robert Gordon - to relativizing digital innovation, with the fear that in the absence of breakthrough inventions, the world is returning to a long period of stagnation. But this isn't the case. And while some people recognize the power of the digital transformation yet tend to focus on the damage and suffering it can cause, in your own case, while you don't deny the short-term consequences, you see the typical characteristics of creative destruction so dear to Schumpeter.

How do you justify your optimism in regard to the digital revolution at a time when productivity has been slowing down in all developed countries since the early 2000s, and the pace of productivity growth is very low? To what extent can this slowdown be accounted for by the deficit of our statistical system (the limits of what is taken into account by GDP)? By the delay in spreading the digital innovation throughout the various sectors? By the delay in adapting and training the workforce? Or the fact that digital innovation potential (AI, 3D printing, ...) will essentially be realized in the future?

Joel MOKYR: To start off, I don't see the future of technological progress as merely defined by the "digital revolution." AI, robots, 3D printing and such will be an important part of our technological future, but I see progress on a much broader front. Technology will continue to develop at an ever faster rate. But much of that will be necessary to repair the damage that previous innovation has caused. Climate change is only the best known of a whole array of phenomena in which past advances have had unknown and hidden costs that now have to be paid. These costs will be lower if we get better technology, but then that technology will have unintended and unpredicted consequences. And so on. There is progress, of course, but it is not linear, it is not even monotonic. If we knew precisely in advance what every innovation implied, it would not be much of an innovation.

You have on occasion emphasized the interactions between the progress of instruments, breakthrough innovation in technology and scientific invention. How would you apply the analyses you developed for the 18th and 19th century to the components of the digital revolution today?

Compared to the tools we have today for scientific research, Galileo's and Pasteur's look like stone age tools. Yes, we build far better microscopes and telescopes and barometers today, but digitalization has penetrated every aspect of science. It has led to the re-invention of invention. It is not just "IT" or "communications." Huge searchable databanks, quantum chemistry simulation, and highly complex statistical analysis are only some of the tools that the digital age places at science's disposal. Vastly more sophisticated tools – just think of the Betzig-Hell nanoscopes for which the inventors earned a Nobel Prize last year – will allow us to work at smaller and smaller levels of both materials and living things.

Materials are the core of our production. The terms bronze and iron ages signify their importance; the great era of technological progress between 1870 and 1914 was wholly dependent on cheap and ever-better steel. But what is happening to materials now is nothing short of a sea change, with new resins, ceramics, and entirely new solids designed in silico, developed at the nano-technological level. These promise the development of materials nature never dreamed of and that deliver custom-ordered properties in terms of hardness, resilience, elasticity, and so on. New resins, advanced ceramics, carbon nanotubes and other new solids have all come on line. Graphene, the new super-thin wonder material is another substance that promises to revolutionize production in many lines. The new research tools in material science have revolutionized research.

Of perhaps even more revolutionary importance is the powerful technology developed by Stanley Cohen and Herbert Boyer in the early 1970s, in which they succeeded in creating transgenic organisms through the use of micro-organisms. Genetic selection is an old technology: nature never intended to create poodles. But genetic engineering is to artificial selection what a laser driven fine-tuned surgical instrument is to a meat-axe. The potential economic significance of genetic engineering is simply staggering, as it completely changes the relationship between humans and all other species on the planet. Ever since the emergence of agriculture and husbandry, people have "played God" and changed their biological and topographical environment, creating new phenotypes in plants and animals. Genetic engineering means we are just far better at it.

Do you think that in the long-term future, productivity gains will be mainly driven by breakthrough innovations like the creation of new microprocessors with enhanced performance or the implementation of existing innovations in several areas? And in the latter case, isn't there a risk that the induced productivity gains will gradually dwindle?

I don't believe they will ever dwindle. But I think that productivity growth as traditionally measured will become largely irrelevant in describing what is really going on. Such techniques were designed to measure process innovation, that allowed firms to produce wheat and steel with fewer inputs. It is much harder to use it to measure quality improvements, many of them subtle and often hard to quantify (e.g. the introduction of airbags into cars or more sophisticated diagnostic machinery). It is even harder for traditional NIPA to deal with entirely new products such as anesthesia or microwave ovens or online encyclopedias.

For some, the collaborative economy is one of the most fruitful products of the internet. Should we see this primarily as an illustration of the capacity of digital to reduce transaction costs or as the sign of a possible surpassing of the market economy?

Technology will change the market economy. The "share economy" (now already known to some as the "uber-economy") has transformed urban transportation, and airbnb is transforming tourism. But these will be dwarfed by the impact of digital technology on the labor market, as already illustrated by taskrabbit handimen, upcounsel on-demand attorneys, urbansitter for babysitting and healthtap for on-line doctors. But this is just scratching the surface. Digital technology will change the labor market as much as the factory did during the Industrial Revolution. The factory eventually replaced the home as the main location where production took place. That pendulum may swing back, especially if mass customization through home manufacturing (misnomered as 3D printing) starts spreading. If both Robert Reich and Jeremy Rifkin are panicking about this, it cannot be all bad.

Your work has been partly guided by the question as to why the industrial revolution primarily took place in the UK rather than in Germany or France? Can you draw a parallel with the North American domination that we are seeing today in microprocessors, software and the internet? What conditions have favored this supremacy? What factors could threaten it? What priority changes could enable Europe to acquire the necessary conditions to compete with the digital domination of the US?

I am not sure that I am still all that overawed by the question of "why Britain first". The parallel is the putative "domination" of Americans today in high-tech. Rather than seeing the leader as the locomotive that pulls the entire train forward, I think of this as an electric train, in which the motive power is external, and the lead car is there more or less by accident. Technology today is the result of a multinational effort in which boundaries mean less and less. Finland led in cellphones, Israel in flash storage, France in nuclear power – so what? Does that mean they alone can use it? Let's face it, in today's world, if an invention is made somewhere, it is made everywhere. Silicone valley is in the US, but half of the people working there are foreign-born. They could be anywhere (as long as they are together). Of course, if a country has really terrible institutions, such as Putin's Russia or Khamenei's Iran, they are not only not likely to generate new technology, but may even find it hard to absorb it. But nations such as Norway or Switzerland will always be at the frontier even if they are contributing relatively little to pushing it out.

Many observers agree that the 21st century will be marked by the emergence of China in the forefront of the global economy. Do you think this country has the necessary conditions or is developing the conditions to establish its supremacy with new leadership in digital technology sectors?

No. Their institutions are not quite as bad as Russia or Nigeria, which are corrupt to the core and where a small kleptocracy extinguishes entrepreneurship. But to have technological progress and not just a thriving and well-functioning market economy more is needed. What you need is not only the rule of law, respect for property and human rights, and the enforcement of contracts. What you need is pluralism, tolerance, and freedom of expression and association. You need political competition and decentralization, in which the ruling elite is held accountable and in which the government is constrained by what it can do to its citizens. We need to keep in mind that innovators were and are deviants, people who in some way are different and abnormal, eccentric perhaps, and in conformist societies such people in some way are suppressed. Europe's advances started in earnest when those who thought "outside the box" were no longer in fear of being accused of "black magic" or heresy. Chinese history is a fascinating story of how incredible creativity and sophistication were essentially wasted after the Song dynasty and China fell behind the West. Mutatis mutandis, the same is true for the Soviet Union. The potential of Soviet Russia was huge, but bad institutions channeled its creativity into Sputniks, MIG's and Katyushas and little else.

 

Joel MOKYR is the Robert H. Strotz Professor of Arts and Sciences and Professor of Economics and History at Northwestern University and Sackler Professor (by special appointment) at the Eitan Berglas School of Economics at the University of Tel Aviv. He specializes in economic history and the economics of technological change and population change. He is the author of Why Ireland Starved: An Analytical and Quantitative Study of the Irish Economy, The Lever of Riches: Technological Creativity and Economic Progress, The British Industrial Revolution: An Economic Perspective, The Gifts of Athena: Historical Origins of the Knowledge Economy, and The Enlightened Economy. His most recent book is A Culture of Growth, to be published by Princeton University Press in 2016. He serves as editor in chief of a book series, the Princeton University Press Economic History of the Western World. He serves as chair of the advisory committee of the Institutions, Organizations, and Growth program of the Canadian Institute of Advanced Research. Prof. Mokyr has an undergraduate degree from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and a Ph.D. from Yale University. He has taught at Northwestern since 1974, and has been a visiting Professor at Harvard, the University of Chicago, Stanford, the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, the University of Tel Aviv, University College of Dublin, and the University of Manchester. He is a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, a foreign fellow of the Royal Dutch Academy of Sciences, the Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei and a Fellow of the Econometric Society and the Cliometric Society. His books have won a number of important prizes, and in 2006 he was awarded the biennial Heineken Prize by the Royal Dutch Academy of Sciences for a lifetime achievement in historical science. In 2015 he was awarded the Balzan Prize for Economic History.

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