The global revenues from telecom services will grow from 1,174 billion EUR in 2015 to 1,293 billion EUR in 2020
Head of Strategies Telecoms Business Unit , IDATE DigiWorld
With revenues from mobile services as principal growth engine, which will grow by 14% between 2015 and 2020 (+2.8% per year on average), and reaching 814 billion EUR in 2020.
With global penetration more than 100% in 2014, subscriber growth is expected to gradually slow down over the next few years. The number of fixed Internet subscribers is increasing at roughly the same pace, but customer numbers are eight times smaller. The one billion mark is not expected to be reached before 2020 and traditional landlines continue to loose ground as VoIP and mobile gain ground.
The spread of broadband
the number of fixed broadband subscribers is expected to reach 1 billion worldwide by the end of 2019. The number of LTE customers is shooting up, with services based on carrier aggregation no longer being limited to just the more developed countries.
Three major factors will play in favour of the spread of broadband:
• The success of bundled offers (fixed telephony, VoIP, TV, mobile telephony) and the appetite for video applications.
• The investment of telecom operators in the migration of their infrastructures to mobile or fixed broadband.
• The comfort provided by ultra-fast mobile broadband and the new uses it enables.
Revenue from telecom services
The global revenues from telecom services will grow from 1,174 billion EUR in 2015 to 1,293 billion EUR in 2020, representing an average annual growth of 2.0%.
• Revenues from mobile services will grow by 14% between 2015 and 2020 (+2.8% per year on average), reaching 814 billion EUR in 2020.
• Revenues associated with data transmission and Internet will grow more strongly (+21% between 2015 and 2020, i.e. +4.3% per year on average), to reach 344 billion EUR in 2020.
• Revenues from fixed telephony will continue to decline significantly (-23% between 2015 and 2020, i.e. a decline of 4.6% per year on average), to be at 135 billion EUR in 2020..
Disparate performances from operators in emerging countries
Top telcos in emerging countries continue to suffer from a sudden halt in value growth. China’s three operators in particular have seen virtually no progress: China Unicom actually reported a 3% drop in revenue. Their margins are come in line with industry standards: between 30% and 40% of EBITDA margins.
Several of these operators are actively engaged in an international expansion into Africa and Latin America, but also into advanced markets, particularly in Europe.
European operators starting incrementally to get back on track
Telcos in Europe are back on a growth path. If most of the top carriers are still reporting decreasing revenue, some are seeing an increase, notably Deutsche Telekom, Telenor and to a lesser extent Orange, thanks to their international operations. Their spending on LTE and superfast fixed access networks (FTTx) has not yet paid off and helped to bolster ARPU.
Debate over the crucial role that trust will play in the digital economy’s future
The 38th annual DigiWorld Summit will run from 15 – 17 November 2016, and have as its central theme: The Internet of Trust. It will be an opportunity to engage in a meaningful international debate over digital trust issues – starting with security and privacy – which have become major sources of concern for all of the ecosystem’s stakeholders.
As the number of reported cyber-attacks worldwide is growing by close to 40% a year, we expect that upcoming stages in digital technologies’ evolution will only amplify the phenomenon. And this to such an extent that any future scenario is possible: from a continuation of the current chaos to a breakdown in trust that would lead to the construction of a new digital economy, which will no doubt differ in many respects from the one we know today.=
• Are we reaching a tolerance threshold for online trust?
• How can veteran digital industry players (equipment suppliers, telcos, IT companies) capitalise on the current climate?
• Are verticals threatened by the situation or, on the contrary, on the winning side of trust and security issues?
• Do we need a new regulatory framework to govern, or reassure, market players and consumers?
> Including the 120 speakers on this edition:
• Eva BERNEKE, CEO, KMD
• Anne BOUVEROT, CEO, Morpho
• Isabelle FALQUE-PIERROTIN, Chairwoman, CNIL
• Pierre, CHAPPAZ, Co-founder & Executive Chairman, Teads
• Didier LAMOUCHE, President & CEO, Oberthur
• Joseph LUBIN, Founder & CEO, ConsenSys, Co-Founder Ethereum
• Carlos LOPEZ BLANCO, Global Head, Public and Regulatory Affairs, Telefónica
• Stéphane RICHARD, Chairman & CEO, Orange
• Corrado SCIOLLA, President Europe, BT Global Services
• Nicolas SEKKAKI, CEO France, IBM
Choosing the theme for the 2016 DigiWorld Summit came about quite naturally. The vast majority of IDATE DigiWorld were eager to tackle the topic of trust.
For some time now, trust has been recognised as a vital ingredient in the success of a brand, an economy or a society. This is all the more true in a world being transformed by digital innovation. In its scenarios for 2025, IDATE DigiWorld underscored that trust was one of the key variables in tomorrow’s digital ecosystem. To shore up this belief, we need only look at some recent headlines:
• the cyberattacks against telcos, TV networks and government agencies,
• the legal wrangles between Apple and WhatsApp and government authorities wanting access to the encryption key for the devices or messages;
• the very drawn out European Union negotiations over new data protection rules;
• the end of the Safe Harbor transatlantic agreement and ensuing debates over the new Privacy Shield;
• questions over the dangers surrounding connected/driverless cars, and the growing ubiquity of the IoT in general;
• the ad–blocking phenomenon;
• questions over what impact multiple FinTech solutions will have on the soundness of the banking system, and blockchain’s ability to replace today’s trusted third parties;
So trust is a focal point for telcos, cloud computing companies, Internet giants, start–ups, governments and regulators, but also for every economic sector across the board, not to mention consumers and citizens.
And, as always, acknowledging risk must not prevent us from also analysing opportunities, in terms of innovation, differentiation strategies and the competitive advantages available to many market players.
Once again this year, the vital meeting place that this international conference has become, will include plenary sessions that will provide a springboard for a series of high–level specialty forums. These forums are an opportunity to delve deeper into the main trends we expect to see in mobile networks with the advent of 5G, ultrafast broadband, the Internet of Things, the TV market’s transformation in Europe, FinTech, video games, the digital promise in Africa and what makes a smart city.
A unique international forum for debate and networking
|> DigiWorld Week
A week devoted to understanding what makes our new digital world tick (12 – 20 November 2016)
|> The DigiWorld Awards
Recognising the best digital start-ups created by French entrepreneurs abroad
Key facts & figures
Europe’s trailblazing conference on the digital economy
The DigiWorld Summit is an annual event organised and hosted by IDATE experts, with the support of DigiWorld Institute members. Every year it holds ultra high-level international debates on the core issues shaping the digital economy, with the finest speakers and industry insiders.
• Participants: 1,200 participants at the DigiWorld Summit and more than 5,000 at DigiWorld Week
• Speakers: 120 speakers from around the world; 400 at DigiWorld Week
• Partners and sponsors: over 100 partners and sponsors (businesses, public sector, media…)
• Social media: 15,000 tweets (trending topics) and 2,000 live followers
For more information, visit our website: www.digiworldsummit.com
Director of Studies, Strategy Business Unit, IDATE
but facing important heterogeneity from one country to another in terms of demographics, economics and players’ involvement.
The FTTH/B market remains at an early stage in the LATAM region: at end 2015, there were 3.65 million subscribers and 20.1 million Homes Passed in the 16 countries analysed in the panorama. Most countries are still focusing on the expansion and availability of traditional Broadband throughout their whole territory. The region is also facing economic difficulties: the disparity is not only between countries, but also inside countries, which can explain why Superfast Broadband is not a priority yet.
One of the main characteristics of the region is its heterogeneity: the involvement of national authorities differs a lot from one country to another as they include or not the telecommunications infrastructures in their overall development strategy. On the regulatory side, there are no specific rules devoted to the enhancement of superfast Broadband in general and FTTH/B in particular.
At end 2015, the largest FTTH/B market in LATAM is Mexico, which now slightly overpasses Brazil with 1.29 million subs (vs 1.25 million subs in Brazil). Both countries represent more than 69% of the regional number of subscribers, which is representative of the demographics. Another country showed a very interesting growth, Colombia, which now counts more than 1.3 million Homes Passed and 150,000 subscribers.
On the largest markets, competition seems to have had a positive impact and really enhanced FTTH players to enlarge and/or accelerate their rollouts. This is for instance the case in Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, and Chile. The kind of players involved in FTTH can also be quite different when comparing the countries. In some cases (Argentina, Mexico, Chile, Uruguay…), the incumbents play a key role and are really active in this new market. But in most cases, the first rollouts have been initiated by small private players, focused on limited areas, at least in the short/medium term. As an example, the Mexican market grew significantly during 2015, with +46% subscribers: the competition between two leading players, Telmex on one side and TotalPlay on the other side, seems to positively drive the market. On its side, the Brazilian market grew a little bit less (+ 32% subs) and is also driven by the strong involvement of national players, but also of small players rolling out in very located areas.
Since 2013, we have seen the emergence of pan-regional players, in particular when coming to the Caribbean islands. Cable & Wireless Communications, through its brand name LIME, is a leading player in Barbados and Jamaica, where it is involved in FTTH rollouts. Another player was cable operator Columbus Communications, which operated under the brand name Flow in Barbados and Jamaica but also in Grenada ad Trinidad & Tobago. At beginning 2015, Cable & Wireless acquired Columbus Communications and decided to provide its Superfast Broadband services under the Flow brand in most markets. Even if Docsis 3.0 is the main infrastructure, the cableco also rolled out some FTTH networks in small areas.
In larger countries, we can of course mention Telefonica Group, which applies a strategy dedicated to each market where it is present. Then, America Movil is another important LATAM player through its brand Claro. America Movil is also deploying both FTTLA+Docsis 3.0 and FTTH networks, depending on the concerned country.
The involvement of such kind of pan-regional players could represent a great opportunity for the enhancement of FTTH/B in the region as, even if not obvious for the moment, they could decide to adopt a common strategy on the different market, one supporting another…
Generally speaking, the LATAM region has a strong potential for FTTH, because of its demography and the dynamism of its real estate market. But it also encounters difficulties due to the fact that the international interconnectivity is not always efficient. For instance, in Bolivia, the international interconnectivity is undersized, which has an impact on the real capacities that ISPs are able to provide to their customers.
However, we have seen very positive signs for FTTH since 2013: the growths in terms of both coverage (Homes Passed) and take up rate (subscribers) are impressive (respectively +46 and +57% in 2014, then +27% and +39% in 2015).The FTTH offering seems to have encountered a great success towards end users. Most players provide Triple Play services that include TV services. And several players have launched 1 Gbps solutions few months ago now.
Number of FTTH/B Homes Passed in LATAM countries
Source: IDATE, on behalf of the FTTH Council LATAM Chapter
When comparing the LATAM region with other ore mature ones in the world, it is obvious that the potential is very high because the market is at its very early stage. But it is also noteworthy to mention that, in terms of penetration rates (number of subscribers on total numbers of households in a country), 9 LATAM countries have entered the global ranking as of September 2015, with rates from 1.76% (Brazil) to more than 47% (Uruguay, where the penetration rate is even higher than in the leading European countries in the ranking!).
IDATE publishes a half-yearly updated FTTx observatory, gathering qualitative and quantitative data of 70 countries and +150 players – see details online
Senior Consultant, IDATE DigiWorld
After a very dynamic year of growth at +19%, the trend seems to be confirmed…
The 9 first months of 2015 confirmed the trend of the previous year: the increase is there and confirms that Europe has entered in the “Fibre age”! There were no noticeable events towards FTTH/B since January 2015 but the growth now seems to be structural. We counted more than 35.9 million FTTH/B subscribers and nearly 127 million FTTH/B Homes Passed in EU39 at September 2015. Those figures represent respective growths of 19% and 17% in 9 months.
A part from Russia which represents the largest part of FTTH/B subscribers (42% of total number of subscribers), the other largest markets are Spain, France, Romania, (7% of the total number of subscribers each) then Turkey, Sweden and Ukraine. Of course, the demographic characteristics of those countries and the national maturity of the FTTH/B market will have an impact on this kind of ranking in the coming years.
Thanks to the tremendous increase in coverage during 2014, Spain is identified as the most dynamic market during the first 9 months of 2015, with 65% growth in the number of subscribers. France is also once again among the main markets in terms of new subscribers, with a growth reaching 31%, to compare to an average growth rate of 19%. Interesting to note that Luxembourg shows a growth rate of 27%, which is also very significant compared to the average one. However, we have to note that, even if the increase is high in a country, this does not always mean that the market is huge (cf in the UK where the growth rate reaches 60% in 9 months but the number of subscribers is still lower than 100,000).
In terms of coverage, the countries with the highest growths are different. The average growth rate is 17% and few leading markets show a higher growth: +26% in Russia, + 18% in Spain…but “only” +9% in France… The coverage increased much more in smaller countries such as Slovakia (+51%), Norway (+39%), Ireland (+46%) and Switzerland (+61%). We can also mention countries such as Poland (+59% growth in number of HP) and Luxembourg, showing a growth rate in coverage of 27%, 10 points higher than the average!
In terms of players involved in FTTH/B projects, alternative carriers are still leading the way, representing a 51% of the total homes passed in EU39 at September 2015. Their representativeness has decreased significantly compared to December 2011 where they covered 71% of the total number of Homes Passed in the region.
The number of local authorities launching FTTH/B rollout projects on their territory has also decreased during the period, even if there are more and more numerous to get involved. This really confirms that the involvement of those players is very important to ensure exhaustive coverage but that they will only deploy in very limited areas, corresponding to their territory. Their approach and strategy is of course different from private players’ strategy…
Then, of course, incumbents are important players in all European countries. They represent 45% of HP in EU39 at September 2015, compared to 21% at end 2011! During the previous years, we have noted the growing involvement of incumbents and now, in all countries, incumbents are involved in at least small FTTH/B projects. Of course, some are still focusing on other FTTx architectures but all consider that FTTH has to be part of their catalogue, in one way or another.
Regarding the technology and the architecture deployed, we have not noted any changes during the 9 first months of 2015: Ethernet is still players’ first choice across the EU39, representing 66% of all FTTH/B rollouts and most deployments concerned FTTH which represents 41% of homes passed at September 2015.
Number of FTTH/B subscribers per country in Europe (countries with more than 200 K subscribers)
Source: IDATE DigiWorld for FTTH Council Europe
Number of FTTH/B homes passed per country in Europe (countries with more than a million homes passed)
Source: IDATE DigiWorld for FTTH Council Europe
IDATE publishes a half-yearly updated FTTx observatory, gathering qualitative and quantitative data of 70 countries and +150 players – see details online
Senior Consultant, IDATE DigiWorld
Within the latest edition of its half-yearly updated observatory for superfast-broadband access, IDATE – world leading FTTx intelligence provider – announces the impressive milestone of 300 million subscriptions at mid-June 2015, for world consolidated. Furthermore, superfast technologies(1) represented nearly 38% of broadband access subscriptions at mid-2015, 8 points more than one year before.
FTTH/B is still the leading superfast broadband solution, far ahead of FTTx/D3.0, followed by VDSL
• FTTH/B represented 61% of FTTx subscriptions at mid-2015. Growth of FTTH/B subscriptions will continue until 2019, but at a lower pace than during 2014, year of real success in China.
• FTTx/D3.0 represented at June 2015, 27% of FTTx subscriptions. After two years of significant growth, proportion of FTTx/D3.0 on Superfast Broadband is stable
• VDSL, for its part, lagged behind, representing 12% of subscriptions at mid-2015 compared to 13% in June 2014
The regional breakdown is very heterogeneous
• No huge changes in the geographical predominance of APAC on the FTTH/B market.
• FTTH/B is also the main deployed technology in MENA. It was the case also in LATAM, but now it is meeting stronger competition from VDSL technologies in the region (Brazilian market).
• FTTx/D3.0 is still dominant in North America and is generally growing more rapidly than other technologies.
• There is considerable space for VDSL in Europe where incumbents still wish to optimise their copper networks.
(1) For the definition of superfast platforms we consider three main architectures: FTTH/B, VDSL and FTTx/D3.0 deployed by cable operators
The growth rate of FTTH/B subscriptions should continue to increase at an annual average rate of 10% until 2019
• The growth in the total number of FTTH/B subscribers will gradually decrease from 37% in 2014 to 6% in 2019: this is linked to the progressive maturity of the markets.
• By 2019, the share of FTTH/B subscriptions will represent 32% of total broadband market worldwide (to be compared to 22% at end 2014).
• FTTH/B is now deployed in all major regions in the world, at different levels: FTTH/B represents a great opportunity for countries where broadband is not widespread (Latin America, Africa and some countries in Asia-Pacific).
The take-up rate of FTTH/B worldwide will grow gradually from 32% at end-2015 to 34% by end-2019
Whilst regional disparities will persist, the ranking of leading regions will change:
• Eastern Europe will see its take-up rate grow from 30% to 41% from end-2015 to end-2019, much higher than in Western Europe, from 26% to 40% during the same period.
• In North America, the take-up rate will rise from 41% to 46% at end 2019.
• In Asia-Pacific, the take-up rate will grow thanks to the dynamism of China and new markets such as Indonesia, Kazakhstan and Vietnam.
• In Latin America, the adoption rate will be steady as FTTH/B is at is early stage and players will focus more on expanding coverage.
IDATE publishes a half-yearly updated FTTx observatory, gathering qualitative and quantitative data of 70 countries and +150 players – see details online
Director of Studies, IDATE DigiWorld
In developed countries, the broadband market’s evolution is being shaped by the transition to superfast broadband (SFB) and by fixed-mobile convergence. Telcos have to react – especially on the verge of continuous consolidation in the communications industry. In 2015 merger & acquisitions already shook up markets profoundly.
In both fixed and mobile access markets, the trend is one of increasing speeds, and especially the transition to superfast access (>30 Mbps) thanks to NGA network rollouts. But each is progressing at its own pace.
In the mobile sector, LTE rollouts are progressing rapidly, and subscription rates in Western countries are already high. It is safe to say that 80% of residents in Japan, South Korea, North America and the biggest European markets will be covered by LTE networks by the start of 2016, as will roughly 60% of the people in China. In addition to rapidly reaching 90+% coverage in the most advanced markets, LTE will steadily enable increasingly fast connection speeds: in excess of 30 Mbps thanks to frequency aggregation, more base stations in urban areas and the use of small cells combined with wide channels in high frequency bands. Starting in 2020, these developments will fold into 5G rollouts which are expected to deliver Gigabit-class datarates.
A comparison of fixed and mobile coverage in some of Europe’s largest markets (30 Mbps in LTE and FTTH/B), 2012-2020
Source: IDATE, LTE vs. fibre, December 2015
• Progress is slower in increasing fixed network coverage rates. It is also more complicated since it involves a mix of technologies that is specific to each national market. Schematically speaking:
- VDSL technology, which uses the legacy copper network’s local loop at least partially, makes it possible to achieve speeds of >30 Mbps, and even in excess of 50 Mbps, thanks in particular to developments such as vectoring and bonding;
- DOCSIS technologies, for cable companies that reuse the last mile of TV broadcasting networks’ coaxial cable. The vast majority of them are already selling plans with a speed of more than 100 Mbps and Gigabit-speed plans are soon to follow;
- FTTH technology which requires massive investments and a good deal of time to deploy fibre to customer premises. These systems deliver a headline speed of 100 Mbps and will be upgraded steadily to Gigabit-speed access.
• In advanced markets, fixed and mobile NGA rollouts will go hand in hand, even if preliminary observations and forecasts give superfast mobile a slight edge in terms of pace. The current situation is giving rise to fixed-mobile convergence strategies, which are clearly illustrated in Europe through the recent spate of merger and acquisition deals.
The impetus behind the convergence trend can be found in the resulting advantages:
bundles and cross-selling synergies in customer accounts, online and brick-and-mortar shops, applications and video content;
integrated approach to fixed and mobile infrastructure: sharing backboning, though Wi-Fi which is now an effective bridge between fixed and mobile and, more and more, the savings generated on backhauling with the increasing use of small cells in densely populated areas, and through sharing SDN/NFV software infrastructures. Eventually, mobile services will represent a significant percentage of fixed network revenue, while the latter will provide short-range wireless access.
• The countries where fixed-mobile convergence is the furthest along are Spain and France, where more than 40% of subscribers use the same operator for their fixed and mobile services. But there is also a general trend in Europe of markets being gradually structured around integrated fixed-mobile operators, as the result of an ongoing series of mergers and acquisitions.
• The trend is less prevalent in the United States due to the fragmentation of wireline telcos, cable companies and mobile operators which often have only regional or local footprints. But US cable companies are investing in Wi-Fi and showing an interest in mobile services (Comcast) while AT&T, by taking control of DirecTV, is integrating fixed and mobile products at the national level.
• As a small percentage of areas in advanced countries will probably still remain uncovered by operators’ FTTH/B networks in 2020, wireless access and especially LTE will likely be sold as a substitute, alongside satellite access plans and in some instances with hybrid LTE/DSL routers. This configuration is already being tested by several operators in the United States and in Europe. Added to this is the swath of customers in urban areas who have only a mobile subscription, even for their Internet access. The availability of additional spectrum resources, and notably in the 700 MHz band, often attached to obligations to cover more sparsely populated areas, should also facilitate this approach.
• In emerging economies and especially in Africa, Internet access – which today is still confined to a fraction of the population – will be delivered primarily through the expansion of 3G and the deployment of LTE networks. But the needs of businesses and city demographics will progressively generate investments in wireline fibre networks, and set off a fixed-mobile convergence trend.
Find out more on Fixed-Mobile Converges and the latest trends and figures for LTE and FTTx in our dedicated market report
Directeur de la Business unit Territoires Numériques, IDATE
La Métropole de Lyon renforce l’attractivité de son territoire en investissant dans la desserte généralisée en fibre optique des entreprises, des sites publics et para-publics.
La décision de la Métropole de Lyon illustre l’implication des collectivités territoriales sur l’accélération des déploiements fibre sur les territoires. En effet, au travers de ce projet portant sur la mise en œuvre d’un réseau d’initiative publique (RIP), c’est l’attractivité et la compétitivité du territoire métropolitain qui seront renforcées.
La Métropole de Lyon (Grand Lyon), en attribuant à la société Covage, lors de son Conseil communautaire du 21 septembre 2015, sa délégation de service public très haut débit, entend accélérer la couverture fibre de son territoire. L’IDATE, qui a été l’assistant à maîtrise d’ouvrage de la Métropole de Lyon pendant toute la durée de la procédure, a participé à ce projet ambitieux qui permettra de desservir en fibre optique près de 100 zones d’activités, plus de 400 immeubles d’entreprises, plus de 1100 sites publics et para-publics.
Sur la Métropole de Lyon, la dynamisation des offres à très haut débit à destination des professionnels, des entreprises et des acteurs publics est attendue pour permettre notamment des raccordements sur fibre optique plus aisés et rapides, pour des coûts réduits.
L’Observatoire des RIP réalisé par l’IDATE au premier trimestre 2015 pour le compte de la CDC et de la Fédération des Industriels des Réseaux d’Initiative Publique (FIRIP) a mis en évidence que la présence des RIP sur les territoires permettait en particulier :
• Un foisonnement de l’offre des opérateurs, avec pour plus de la moitié des RIP la présence de plus de 10 opérateurs proposant leurs services pour les entreprises, les acteurs publics et le grand public.
Présence des opérateurs sur les RIP
Source : Observatoire 2015 des RIP réalisé par l’IDATE pour la FIRIP et la CDC
• Des économies substantielles sur les coûts télécoms supportés par le grand public, les entreprises et les acteurs publics : dans le secteur professionnel, c’est ainsi près de 60 M€ au niveau national qui sont économisés par les entreprises et les acteurs publics clients des offres à très haut débit fournies par les opérateurs présents sur les RIP.
Gains annuels sur les coûts télécoms pour le grand public, les entreprises et les sites publics grâce à la présence des RIP
Source : Observatoire 2015 des RIP réalisé par l’IDATE pour la FIRIP et la CDC et données Avicca
L'IDATE, renforce une expertise déjà bien reconnue auprès des collectivités et des Pouvoirs publics locaux et nationaux
Les consultants de la business unit Territoires Numériques de l’IDATE interviennent sur l’ensemble des problématiques numériques en offrant une palette de prestations répondant aux attentes de ses clients, dans les domaines des réseaux à très haut débit, des observatoires et de l'évaluation, du développement économique, et des schémas directeurs d'aménagement numérique.
Dans le domaine de l'aménagement numérique des territoires, l'IDATE a notamment réalisé les SDTAN de la Région Alsace, des Conseils Généraux du Gers, de la Lozère, du Val-de-Marne, du Val-d'Oise, de l'Essonne, de la Loire, du Territoire de Belfort et du Syndicat mixte de l'Aire Urbaine Belfort-Montbéliard.
L'IDATE est également conseil dans la stratégie Très haut débit (THD) et assistant à maîtrise d'ouvrage de la Région Alsace, de Rennes Métropole, ou encore de l'Etablissement public Debitex qui porte un projet de 80 000 prises FTTH sur 27 communes de la Seine-Saint-Denis et du Val-d'Oise.
ICT industry players vs. the new disrupters
From 17 to 19 November 2015, the 37th annual DigiWorld Summit will bring together 140 top-tier speakers from around the world to Montpellier, to share their views with the more than 1,200 participants from over 25 countries. French Tech will also be in the spotlight during the 2nd annual DigiWorld Week and at the inaugural DigiWorld Awards.
For IDATE Chairman, François Barrault, the theme of “Digital-First” – which was chosen in concert with DigiWorld Institute members – “refers to the tremendous rise of digital technologies in the business world, and huge changes in consumer behaviours. This astonishing acceleration is upsetting the status quo and shaking up the traditional economy, paving the way for new business models ushered in by the digital economy”.
Supervising the programme is IDATE CEO, Yves Gassot, drawing on IDATE consultants’ knowledge and expertise. “Once again this year,” says Mr Gassot, “the participants coming to Montpellier will get an invaluable, detailed snapshot of all of the latest digital industry events, thanks to the plenary sessions and the many forums, and to a large and prestigious panel of speakers from Europe, the United States and China who will be on hand to debate the multifarious questions raised by the ongoing digital revolution”:
• What are the promises of this new age of knowledge? with Jimmy WALES, Founder, Wikipedia
• How is the Internet changing the travel industry? with Peter VERHOEVEN, Managing Director EMEA, Booking.com and Alex SCHLEIFER, Head of Design, Airbnb
• How are veteran toy companies reacting to the video game invasion? with Dan JUDKINS, Head of Global Design and Development, Hasbro Inc.
• How are the Internet giants adjusting to the changes at work? with Carlo d'ASARO BIONDO, President EMEA strategic relationships, Google
• In with the new for a telco going global, with Michel COMBES, COO, Altice
• Is everything about to change for telcos? with Santiago Fernández VALBUENA, Group CSO, Telefónica
• What services will be attached to smart devices? with Bruno BARLET, Executive VP France, LEGRAND, Vincent CHAMPAIN, Operations Director, General Electric and Xavier BOIDEVEZI, VP Development & Digital, SEB
• Just how far can telcos go in helping their customers’ digital transformation? with Thierry BONHOMME, Senior Executive Vice President, Orange Business Services
• Do we really need new dedicated networks for the Internet of Things? with Geoff MULLIGAN, Chairman, LoRa Alliance and Ludovic LE MOAN, CEO, Sigfox
• Will the next Netflix come from China? with WEN Rui, Director of national Business Development, Youku Tudou
• Will new gen mobile TV be the new killer app for video? with Richard LUCQUET, Director, Business Development Technology Partnerships & Licensing, Oncue (Verizon)
• What does the future hold for a top, integrated telecom equipment supplier? Vincent PENG, President Western Europe, Huawei
• Does regulation need to adapt to Internet rules? with Fatima BARROS, Chair 2015, BEREC, Sébastien SORIANO, Chairman, ARCEP and Bruno LASSERRE, Chairman, French competition authority
• Can we count on digital markets to deliver a new period of growth? with Georg GRAETZ, Associate-Labour Markets, London Economics School and Jean-Hervé LORENZI, President, Cercle des Économistes
• As well as: Accenture, BBC, Bouygues Telecom, Deutsche Telekom, Ericsson, France Télévisions, edX, IBM,
• JC Decaux, NEST, Nokia, Qualcom Life, SEB, SNCF, Studio Bagel, Wilseed Studio…
The DigiWorld Summit programme has grown in 2015, to give us a chance to explore the ins and outs of the tremendous and wide-reaching effervescence at work in digital industries today: “This is why we are hosting the second annual DigiWorld Week, which was designed as a collaborative space for partner events. We will also be hosting the first ever DigiWorld Awards, which were created to identify and reward French talent abroad, with special guest, Axelle Lemaire, French Minister of State for the Digital Sector,” explains IDATE’ deputy CEO, Jean-Dominique Séval.
> View the complete programme at:http://digiworldsummit.com
DigiWorld Week 14 – 22 November 2015
IDATE expands on the two days of the DigiWorld Summit, and plays host to an exciting event-filled week. Delving deeper into the issues and shaking up ideas through symposiums, workshops, hackathons, exhibitions, festivals, master classes, digital café… Exploring a host of topics, including the cloud, IoT, eHealth, FX, digital arts, smart agriculture, management, …
> Get the latest news at: www.digiworldweek.com
DigiWorld Awards 19 November 2015
In partnership with Business France and French Tech, IDATE will be hosting the first annual DigiWorld Awards, recognising French digital start-ups (Equipment and devices, Networks and telecoms, Internet services and application, M2M and IoT…), created abroad. Awards will be in four categories: Africa and the Middle East – The Americas – Asia – Europe. The winning start-ups will be added to the international innovation support programmes being run by Accenture, Capgemini, Ericsson and Orange.
> For more details: http://www.digiworldsummit.com/awards
Follow us on Twitter: @DigiWorldIDATE
Head of Telecom Networks Practice, IDATE DigiWorld
World FTTx revenues will growth from 91 billion EUR in 2014 to reach 175 billion EUR in 2019
IDATE has released the latest issue of its World FTTx database, which is part of its ongoing service covering the ultra-fast broadband market. It provides reference data on this market across the globe, covering more than 70 countries and 150 key players, and providing forecasts up to 2019.
• Superfast technologies represented nearly 37% of broadband access subscriptions at end-2014, 8 points more than one year before. (For the definition of superfast platforms, IDATE have considered here three main architectures: FTTH/B, FTTN and FTTx/D3.0 deployed by cable operators).
• FTTH/B is still the leading superfast broadband solution, far ahead of FTTx/D3.0, followed by VDSL:
- FTTH/B represented 62% of FTTx subscriptions at end-2014. Growth of FTTH/B subscriptions will continue until 2019, but at a lower pace than during 2014, year of real success in China.
- FTTx/D3.0 represented at December 2014, 27% of FTTx subscriptions. After two years of significant growth, proportion of FTTx/D3.0 on Superfast Broadband is lightly decreasing (29% at end 2013).
- VDSL, for its part, lagged behind, representing 11% of subscriptions at end-2014; same proportion than at end-2013.
• The regional breakdown is very heterogeneous
‐ Still a geographical predominance of APAC on the FTTH/B market.
‐ FTTH/B is also the main deployed technology in both Middle-East and Africa and Latin America, but it is meeting stronger competition from cable-based technologies in Latin America.
‐ FTTx/D3.0 is still dominant in North America and is generally growing more rapidly than other technologies.
‐ There is considerable space for VDSL in Europe where incumbents still wish to optimize their copper networks.
Compared growth of VDSL Breakdown of Ultra-fast broadband
and FTTH/B subscribers, 2014-2019 technologies, at end-2014
FTTH Operators ranking: 6 Asian and 4 American telcos make up the world’s Top 10
Only one player among them (AT&T) is involved in large FTTN+VDSL deployment, then there are two cablecos having upgraded their infrastructures to FTTx/D3.0 (Comcast and Virgin Media).
The two Chinese telcos (China Telecom and China Unicom) are leading this ranking with FTTH/B.
Top 10 FTTx worldwide players, at end 2014
Find out more information on World FTTx market in our dedicated market report
Future Networks Forum
"Welcome to the Gigabit era?"
These many facets of these topics will be explored at the Future Network Forum on 18 November 2015, as part of the DigiWorld Summit, with:
• Eric DENOYER, CEO, Numericable-SFR
• Håkan ANDERSSON, Head of 5G Strategy, Radio Business Unit, Ericsson
• Dominique BAROUX, Director, Regulatory Affairs, EMEA, AT&T
• Götz Philip BRASCHE, CTO IT R&D Europe, Huawei
• Laurent CHATELIN, Investment manager, Marguerite
• Anna KRZYZANOWSKA, Head of Unit Broadband, DG CONNECT, European Commission
• Jean-Hubert LENOTTE, Director of Strategy, Eutelsat
• Blair LEVIN, Executive Director, Gig.U
• Alain MALOBERTI, Senior Vice President, Orange Labs Networks, Orange
• Terje TJELTA, Senior Research Scientist, Telenor, 5G PPP Association
Director of Telecom Economics Business Unit,
The announcement of the merger between Wind and Tre in Italy and the resulting shift from 4 down to 3 mobile operators for the country, confirms the telecom consolidation trend in Europe.
It takes two forms:
On one hand, with the multiplication of fixed-mobile consolidation operations, like the recent acquisition of mobile operator Base in Belgium by the cable operator Telenet. Other examples include the Orange-Jazztel operations in Spain, BT-EE in the UK, Numericable-SFR in France, and Vodafone-Ono, also in Spain.
On the other hand, we are seeing a concentration in the mobile sector, from 4 down to 3 operators, including the top 5 countries of the European Union (see map). Germany has already switched, with the merger between E-Plus and O2, the respective subsidiaries of KPN and Telefónica in 2014 after a long investigation by the European antitrust authorities. In the UK, the planned merger between Three, the local subsidiary of the Hong Kong group Hutchison Whampoa (also parent company of Tre in Italy) and O2, will likewise reduce the number of operators in the mobile industry from 4 to 3. In Spain, the sale of yoigo, proposed two years ago by TeliaSonera, was abandoned due to the lack of a buyer under terms that the Swedish group deemed reasonable but the Spanish market is de facto concentrated within three operators, the fourth and last arrival having just over 6% of the market (in number of customers), and having further declined since late 2014. But let’s recall that in France, conversely, Free Mobile has managed to win about 15% of customers (but some 8% of revenues) of the French market in three years. In this concerted process, the French market seems to be the only one continuing to swim against the current!
Beyond the five major European markets, a significant number of other member states of the European Union also have around 3 mobile operators, and only two in the case of Cyprus.
In total, of the 23 other countries, just half (12 in total) still have 4 or more operators. But for some (Denmark, Finland, Luxembourg, Sweden), the fourth operator has remained embryonic. Note also that while four countries still benefited from the launch of 4G to open the market for a new entrant (Bulgaria, the Netherlands, Romania and Slovakia), uncertainties remain on the sustainability of new licenses. Romania is also the only member state to host six operators. And finally, in Belgium, the allocation of a fourth 3G license to the Telenet-Voo consortium in 2011 was not finally acted upon: both protagonists relinquished their licenses in 2014! Finally, we should complete this inventory by highlighting the diversity of situations relating to MVNOs, in number and market share.
Nevertheless, with more than 100 licenses issued, the European market remains highly fragmented at Community level!
Number of mobile network operators (MNO) in the Member States of the European Union
More informations about IDATE's expertise and events :