Director of Studies, IDATE DigiWorld
In developed countries, the broadband market’s evolution is being shaped by the transition to superfast broadband (SFB) and by fixed-mobile convergence. Telcos have to react – especially on the verge of continuous consolidation in the communications industry. In 2015 merger & acquisitions already shook up markets profoundly.
In both fixed and mobile access markets, the trend is one of increasing speeds, and especially the transition to superfast access (>30 Mbps) thanks to NGA network rollouts. But each is progressing at its own pace.
In the mobile sector, LTE rollouts are progressing rapidly, and subscription rates in Western countries are already high. It is safe to say that 80% of residents in Japan, South Korea, North America and the biggest European markets will be covered by LTE networks by the start of 2016, as will roughly 60% of the people in China. In addition to rapidly reaching 90+% coverage in the most advanced markets, LTE will steadily enable increasingly fast connection speeds: in excess of 30 Mbps thanks to frequency aggregation, more base stations in urban areas and the use of small cells combined with wide channels in high frequency bands. Starting in 2020, these developments will fold into 5G rollouts which are expected to deliver Gigabit-class datarates.
A comparison of fixed and mobile coverage in some of Europe’s largest markets (30 Mbps in LTE and FTTH/B), 2012-2020
Source: IDATE, LTE vs. fibre, December 2015
• Progress is slower in increasing fixed network coverage rates. It is also more complicated since it involves a mix of technologies that is specific to each national market. Schematically speaking:
- VDSL technology, which uses the legacy copper network’s local loop at least partially, makes it possible to achieve speeds of >30 Mbps, and even in excess of 50 Mbps, thanks in particular to developments such as vectoring and bonding;
- DOCSIS technologies, for cable companies that reuse the last mile of TV broadcasting networks’ coaxial cable. The vast majority of them are already selling plans with a speed of more than 100 Mbps and Gigabit-speed plans are soon to follow;
- FTTH technology which requires massive investments and a good deal of time to deploy fibre to customer premises. These systems deliver a headline speed of 100 Mbps and will be upgraded steadily to Gigabit-speed access.
• In advanced markets, fixed and mobile NGA rollouts will go hand in hand, even if preliminary observations and forecasts give superfast mobile a slight edge in terms of pace. The current situation is giving rise to fixed-mobile convergence strategies, which are clearly illustrated in Europe through the recent spate of merger and acquisition deals.
The impetus behind the convergence trend can be found in the resulting advantages:
bundles and cross-selling synergies in customer accounts, online and brick-and-mortar shops, applications and video content;
integrated approach to fixed and mobile infrastructure: sharing backboning, though Wi-Fi which is now an effective bridge between fixed and mobile and, more and more, the savings generated on backhauling with the increasing use of small cells in densely populated areas, and through sharing SDN/NFV software infrastructures. Eventually, mobile services will represent a significant percentage of fixed network revenue, while the latter will provide short-range wireless access.
• The countries where fixed-mobile convergence is the furthest along are Spain and France, where more than 40% of subscribers use the same operator for their fixed and mobile services. But there is also a general trend in Europe of markets being gradually structured around integrated fixed-mobile operators, as the result of an ongoing series of mergers and acquisitions.
• The trend is less prevalent in the United States due to the fragmentation of wireline telcos, cable companies and mobile operators which often have only regional or local footprints. But US cable companies are investing in Wi-Fi and showing an interest in mobile services (Comcast) while AT&T, by taking control of DirecTV, is integrating fixed and mobile products at the national level.
• As a small percentage of areas in advanced countries will probably still remain uncovered by operators’ FTTH/B networks in 2020, wireless access and especially LTE will likely be sold as a substitute, alongside satellite access plans and in some instances with hybrid LTE/DSL routers. This configuration is already being tested by several operators in the United States and in Europe. Added to this is the swath of customers in urban areas who have only a mobile subscription, even for their Internet access. The availability of additional spectrum resources, and notably in the 700 MHz band, often attached to obligations to cover more sparsely populated areas, should also facilitate this approach.
• In emerging economies and especially in Africa, Internet access – which today is still confined to a fraction of the population – will be delivered primarily through the expansion of 3G and the deployment of LTE networks. But the needs of businesses and city demographics will progressively generate investments in wireline fibre networks, and set off a fixed-mobile convergence trend.
Find out more on Fixed-Mobile Converges and the latest trends and figures for LTE and FTTx in our dedicated market report
Directeur de la Business unit Territoires Numériques, IDATE
La Métropole de Lyon renforce l’attractivité de son territoire en investissant dans la desserte généralisée en fibre optique des entreprises, des sites publics et para-publics.
La décision de la Métropole de Lyon illustre l’implication des collectivités territoriales sur l’accélération des déploiements fibre sur les territoires. En effet, au travers de ce projet portant sur la mise en œuvre d’un réseau d’initiative publique (RIP), c’est l’attractivité et la compétitivité du territoire métropolitain qui seront renforcées.
La Métropole de Lyon (Grand Lyon), en attribuant à la société Covage, lors de son Conseil communautaire du 21 septembre 2015, sa délégation de service public très haut débit, entend accélérer la couverture fibre de son territoire. L’IDATE, qui a été l’assistant à maîtrise d’ouvrage de la Métropole de Lyon pendant toute la durée de la procédure, a participé à ce projet ambitieux qui permettra de desservir en fibre optique près de 100 zones d’activités, plus de 400 immeubles d’entreprises, plus de 1100 sites publics et para-publics.
Sur la Métropole de Lyon, la dynamisation des offres à très haut débit à destination des professionnels, des entreprises et des acteurs publics est attendue pour permettre notamment des raccordements sur fibre optique plus aisés et rapides, pour des coûts réduits.
L’Observatoire des RIP réalisé par l’IDATE au premier trimestre 2015 pour le compte de la CDC et de la Fédération des Industriels des Réseaux d’Initiative Publique (FIRIP) a mis en évidence que la présence des RIP sur les territoires permettait en particulier :
• Un foisonnement de l’offre des opérateurs, avec pour plus de la moitié des RIP la présence de plus de 10 opérateurs proposant leurs services pour les entreprises, les acteurs publics et le grand public.
Présence des opérateurs sur les RIP
Source : Observatoire 2015 des RIP réalisé par l’IDATE pour la FIRIP et la CDC
• Des économies substantielles sur les coûts télécoms supportés par le grand public, les entreprises et les acteurs publics : dans le secteur professionnel, c’est ainsi près de 60 M€ au niveau national qui sont économisés par les entreprises et les acteurs publics clients des offres à très haut débit fournies par les opérateurs présents sur les RIP.
Gains annuels sur les coûts télécoms pour le grand public, les entreprises et les sites publics grâce à la présence des RIP
Source : Observatoire 2015 des RIP réalisé par l’IDATE pour la FIRIP et la CDC et données Avicca
L'IDATE, renforce une expertise déjà bien reconnue auprès des collectivités et des Pouvoirs publics locaux et nationaux
Les consultants de la business unit Territoires Numériques de l’IDATE interviennent sur l’ensemble des problématiques numériques en offrant une palette de prestations répondant aux attentes de ses clients, dans les domaines des réseaux à très haut débit, des observatoires et de l'évaluation, du développement économique, et des schémas directeurs d'aménagement numérique.
Dans le domaine de l'aménagement numérique des territoires, l'IDATE a notamment réalisé les SDTAN de la Région Alsace, des Conseils Généraux du Gers, de la Lozère, du Val-de-Marne, du Val-d'Oise, de l'Essonne, de la Loire, du Territoire de Belfort et du Syndicat mixte de l'Aire Urbaine Belfort-Montbéliard.
L'IDATE est également conseil dans la stratégie Très haut débit (THD) et assistant à maîtrise d'ouvrage de la Région Alsace, de Rennes Métropole, ou encore de l'Etablissement public Debitex qui porte un projet de 80 000 prises FTTH sur 27 communes de la Seine-Saint-Denis et du Val-d'Oise.
ICT industry players vs. the new disrupters
From 17 to 19 November 2015, the 37th annual DigiWorld Summit will bring together 140 top-tier speakers from around the world to Montpellier, to share their views with the more than 1,200 participants from over 25 countries. French Tech will also be in the spotlight during the 2nd annual DigiWorld Week and at the inaugural DigiWorld Awards.
For IDATE Chairman, François Barrault, the theme of “Digital-First” – which was chosen in concert with DigiWorld Institute members – “refers to the tremendous rise of digital technologies in the business world, and huge changes in consumer behaviours. This astonishing acceleration is upsetting the status quo and shaking up the traditional economy, paving the way for new business models ushered in by the digital economy”.
Supervising the programme is IDATE CEO, Yves Gassot, drawing on IDATE consultants’ knowledge and expertise. “Once again this year,” says Mr Gassot, “the participants coming to Montpellier will get an invaluable, detailed snapshot of all of the latest digital industry events, thanks to the plenary sessions and the many forums, and to a large and prestigious panel of speakers from Europe, the United States and China who will be on hand to debate the multifarious questions raised by the ongoing digital revolution”:
• What are the promises of this new age of knowledge? with Jimmy WALES, Founder, Wikipedia
• How is the Internet changing the travel industry? with Peter VERHOEVEN, Managing Director EMEA, Booking.com and Alex SCHLEIFER, Head of Design, Airbnb
• How are veteran toy companies reacting to the video game invasion? with Dan JUDKINS, Head of Global Design and Development, Hasbro Inc.
• How are the Internet giants adjusting to the changes at work? with Carlo d'ASARO BIONDO, President EMEA strategic relationships, Google
• In with the new for a telco going global, with Michel COMBES, COO, Altice
• Is everything about to change for telcos? with Santiago Fernández VALBUENA, Group CSO, Telefónica
• What services will be attached to smart devices? with Bruno BARLET, Executive VP France, LEGRAND, Vincent CHAMPAIN, Operations Director, General Electric and Xavier BOIDEVEZI, VP Development & Digital, SEB
• Just how far can telcos go in helping their customers’ digital transformation? with Thierry BONHOMME, Senior Executive Vice President, Orange Business Services
• Do we really need new dedicated networks for the Internet of Things? with Geoff MULLIGAN, Chairman, LoRa Alliance and Ludovic LE MOAN, CEO, Sigfox
• Will the next Netflix come from China? with WEN Rui, Director of national Business Development, Youku Tudou
• Will new gen mobile TV be the new killer app for video? with Richard LUCQUET, Director, Business Development Technology Partnerships & Licensing, Oncue (Verizon)
• What does the future hold for a top, integrated telecom equipment supplier? Vincent PENG, President Western Europe, Huawei
• Does regulation need to adapt to Internet rules? with Fatima BARROS, Chair 2015, BEREC, Sébastien SORIANO, Chairman, ARCEP and Bruno LASSERRE, Chairman, French competition authority
• Can we count on digital markets to deliver a new period of growth? with Georg GRAETZ, Associate-Labour Markets, London Economics School and Jean-Hervé LORENZI, President, Cercle des Économistes
• As well as: Accenture, BBC, Bouygues Telecom, Deutsche Telekom, Ericsson, France Télévisions, edX, IBM,
• JC Decaux, NEST, Nokia, Qualcom Life, SEB, SNCF, Studio Bagel, Wilseed Studio…
The DigiWorld Summit programme has grown in 2015, to give us a chance to explore the ins and outs of the tremendous and wide-reaching effervescence at work in digital industries today: “This is why we are hosting the second annual DigiWorld Week, which was designed as a collaborative space for partner events. We will also be hosting the first ever DigiWorld Awards, which were created to identify and reward French talent abroad, with special guest, Axelle Lemaire, French Minister of State for the Digital Sector,” explains IDATE’ deputy CEO, Jean-Dominique Séval.
> View the complete programme at:http://digiworldsummit.com
DigiWorld Week 14 – 22 November 2015
IDATE expands on the two days of the DigiWorld Summit, and plays host to an exciting event-filled week. Delving deeper into the issues and shaking up ideas through symposiums, workshops, hackathons, exhibitions, festivals, master classes, digital café… Exploring a host of topics, including the cloud, IoT, eHealth, FX, digital arts, smart agriculture, management, …
> Get the latest news at: www.digiworldweek.com
DigiWorld Awards 19 November 2015
In partnership with Business France and French Tech, IDATE will be hosting the first annual DigiWorld Awards, recognising French digital start-ups (Equipment and devices, Networks and telecoms, Internet services and application, M2M and IoT…), created abroad. Awards will be in four categories: Africa and the Middle East – The Americas – Asia – Europe. The winning start-ups will be added to the international innovation support programmes being run by Accenture, Capgemini, Ericsson and Orange.
> For more details: http://www.digiworldsummit.com/awards
Follow us on Twitter: @DigiWorldIDATE
Head of Telecom Networks Practice, IDATE DigiWorld
World FTTx revenues will growth from 91 billion EUR in 2014 to reach 175 billion EUR in 2019
IDATE has released the latest issue of its World FTTx database, which is part of its ongoing service covering the ultra-fast broadband market. It provides reference data on this market across the globe, covering more than 70 countries and 150 key players, and providing forecasts up to 2019.
• Superfast technologies represented nearly 37% of broadband access subscriptions at end-2014, 8 points more than one year before. (For the definition of superfast platforms, IDATE have considered here three main architectures: FTTH/B, FTTN and FTTx/D3.0 deployed by cable operators).
• FTTH/B is still the leading superfast broadband solution, far ahead of FTTx/D3.0, followed by VDSL:
- FTTH/B represented 62% of FTTx subscriptions at end-2014. Growth of FTTH/B subscriptions will continue until 2019, but at a lower pace than during 2014, year of real success in China.
- FTTx/D3.0 represented at December 2014, 27% of FTTx subscriptions. After two years of significant growth, proportion of FTTx/D3.0 on Superfast Broadband is lightly decreasing (29% at end 2013).
- VDSL, for its part, lagged behind, representing 11% of subscriptions at end-2014; same proportion than at end-2013.
• The regional breakdown is very heterogeneous
‐ Still a geographical predominance of APAC on the FTTH/B market.
‐ FTTH/B is also the main deployed technology in both Middle-East and Africa and Latin America, but it is meeting stronger competition from cable-based technologies in Latin America.
‐ FTTx/D3.0 is still dominant in North America and is generally growing more rapidly than other technologies.
‐ There is considerable space for VDSL in Europe where incumbents still wish to optimize their copper networks.
Compared growth of VDSL Breakdown of Ultra-fast broadband
and FTTH/B subscribers, 2014-2019 technologies, at end-2014
FTTH Operators ranking: 6 Asian and 4 American telcos make up the world’s Top 10
Only one player among them (AT&T) is involved in large FTTN+VDSL deployment, then there are two cablecos having upgraded their infrastructures to FTTx/D3.0 (Comcast and Virgin Media).
The two Chinese telcos (China Telecom and China Unicom) are leading this ranking with FTTH/B.
Top 10 FTTx worldwide players, at end 2014
Find out more information on World FTTx market in our dedicated market report
Future Networks Forum
"Welcome to the Gigabit era?"
These many facets of these topics will be explored at the Future Network Forum on 18 November 2015, as part of the DigiWorld Summit, with:
• Eric DENOYER, CEO, Numericable-SFR
• Håkan ANDERSSON, Head of 5G Strategy, Radio Business Unit, Ericsson
• Dominique BAROUX, Director, Regulatory Affairs, EMEA, AT&T
• Götz Philip BRASCHE, CTO IT R&D Europe, Huawei
• Laurent CHATELIN, Investment manager, Marguerite
• Anna KRZYZANOWSKA, Head of Unit Broadband, DG CONNECT, European Commission
• Jean-Hubert LENOTTE, Director of Strategy, Eutelsat
• Blair LEVIN, Executive Director, Gig.U
• Alain MALOBERTI, Senior Vice President, Orange Labs Networks, Orange
• Terje TJELTA, Senior Research Scientist, Telenor, 5G PPP Association
Director of Telecom Economics Business Unit,
The announcement of the merger between Wind and Tre in Italy and the resulting shift from 4 down to 3 mobile operators for the country, confirms the telecom consolidation trend in Europe.
It takes two forms:
On one hand, with the multiplication of fixed-mobile consolidation operations, like the recent acquisition of mobile operator Base in Belgium by the cable operator Telenet. Other examples include the Orange-Jazztel operations in Spain, BT-EE in the UK, Numericable-SFR in France, and Vodafone-Ono, also in Spain.
On the other hand, we are seeing a concentration in the mobile sector, from 4 down to 3 operators, including the top 5 countries of the European Union (see map). Germany has already switched, with the merger between E-Plus and O2, the respective subsidiaries of KPN and Telefónica in 2014 after a long investigation by the European antitrust authorities. In the UK, the planned merger between Three, the local subsidiary of the Hong Kong group Hutchison Whampoa (also parent company of Tre in Italy) and O2, will likewise reduce the number of operators in the mobile industry from 4 to 3. In Spain, the sale of yoigo, proposed two years ago by TeliaSonera, was abandoned due to the lack of a buyer under terms that the Swedish group deemed reasonable but the Spanish market is de facto concentrated within three operators, the fourth and last arrival having just over 6% of the market (in number of customers), and having further declined since late 2014. But let’s recall that in France, conversely, Free Mobile has managed to win about 15% of customers (but some 8% of revenues) of the French market in three years. In this concerted process, the French market seems to be the only one continuing to swim against the current!
Beyond the five major European markets, a significant number of other member states of the European Union also have around 3 mobile operators, and only two in the case of Cyprus.
In total, of the 23 other countries, just half (12 in total) still have 4 or more operators. But for some (Denmark, Finland, Luxembourg, Sweden), the fourth operator has remained embryonic. Note also that while four countries still benefited from the launch of 4G to open the market for a new entrant (Bulgaria, the Netherlands, Romania and Slovakia), uncertainties remain on the sustainability of new licenses. Romania is also the only member state to host six operators. And finally, in Belgium, the allocation of a fourth 3G license to the Telenet-Voo consortium in 2011 was not finally acted upon: both protagonists relinquished their licenses in 2014! Finally, we should complete this inventory by highlighting the diversity of situations relating to MVNOs, in number and market share.
Nevertheless, with more than 100 licenses issued, the European market remains highly fragmented at Community level!
Number of mobile network operators (MNO) in the Member States of the European Union
More informations about IDATE's expertise and events :
The place to be in Europe, to understand upcoming disruptions and their impact on telecom, IT, Internet and media markets
From 17 to 19 November 2015, the 37th annual DigiWorld Summit will bring together 150 top-tier speakers to Montpellier to share their views with the more than 1,200 participants from over 30 countries. French Tech will also be in the spotlight during the 2nd annual DigiWorld Week and at the inaugural DigiWorld Awards.
Under the banner of “Digital First” IDATE will host debates on the core trends shaping telecom, IT, Internet and media markets, with the knowledge that digital technology is entering a new stage in its ubiquity, becoming the vehicle of a major overhaul in many sectors: energy, insurance, finance, health, automotive, travel and tourism… “But,” says IDATE CEO, Yves Gassot, “this digital verticalisation also represents a new challenge for IT, telecoms, Internet and media industry stakeholders. They may see new growth opportunities, but also challenges as innovation cycles are accelerating, as they consider the shifting outlines of their business and contend with new digital intermediaries.”
This new stage in the digital transformation is being spurred by ubiquitous wireline and wireless connectivity, the economies of scale of cloud computing, and the power of real time data processing algorithms. But it is being amplified by the rise of connected objects, and the promises of 3D printing, of artificial intelligence and the collaborative economy. A profound transformation of the economy that is already materialising in changes to production and distribution infrastructures, in the accelerated shift from product to service and the profusion of channels for interaction with end users.
• What do vertical companies (media groups and TV networks, insurance, automotive, travel, retail, etc.) want from digital industry players (telcos, OTT, IT)?
• How should digital industry players position themselves with respect to the digital transformation in vertical markets?
• How can the Web’s top destination platforms cohabitate with the vertical markets’ new digital champions?
• This year’s Guest Country: China. Can China combine the power of its recently acquired positions in Internet and telecom markets with its manufacturing ambitions?
2015 DigiWorld Summit Programme
Analysis and debates between veteran industry players and disruptive start-ups, with insights from IDATE’s finest economists and analysts:
Digital Europe, Digital World
In-depth seminars with the industry’s top expertsConnected Things Forum
Smart City Forum
TV & Video Distribution Forum
Future Digital Economy Forum
DigiWorld Week (14 – 22 November 2015): IDATE expands on the two days of the DigiWorld Summit, and plays host to an exciting event-filled week. Delving deeper into the issues and shaking up ideas: symposiums, workshops, hackathons, exhibitions, festivals, master classes, …
DigiWorld Awards: in partnership with Business France and French Tech, IDATE will be hosting the first annual DigiWorld Awards, recognising French digital start-ups (Equipment and devices, Networks and telecoms, Internet services and application, M2M and IoT…), created abroad. Awards will be in four categories: Africa and the Middle East – The Americas – Asia – Europe
The DigiWorld Summit, is organised under the patronage of the French Ministry of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs, the Région Languedoc Roussillon and Montpellier Métropole, with the support of DigiWorld Institute member companies.
More informations about IDATE's expertise and events :
IoT : The Internet of Things
Connected objects were everywhere and IoT is now becoming the Internet of everything.
Connected cars attracted a lot of attention with connected vehicles on most of equipment manufacturers’ and MNOs’ booths.
Renault’s CEO made a keynote where he presented the timetable for assisted driving. According to Mr. Carlos Ghosn, despite their numerous initiatives and some acquisition rumours, Internet giants are not rivals to car manufacturers but allies, as they consider electric cars and they help car makers to promote electric cars.
Ford had even its own booth presenting the electric vehicles (both passenger and entreprise cars) with dedicated solutions. In the meantime, Vodafone presented a Porsche Panamera model equipped with its new Telematics solution since the Cobra acquisition.
Smart is also getting traction in the IoT space. In the “innovation city” hall (space dedicated to the connected objects), through the AT&T offering (Digital life) where the home could control through the smartphone and even through the connected car (equipped with an AT&T SIM card). When approaching the home, the car can trigger the opening of gate by itself for instance (pre-programmed distance).
While 5G is already in the tracks, very low throughput network technologies are also under the spotlights. After the recent release of its 100 MEUR fundraising campaign among telecom operators, Sigfox was also on everyone’s lips at the MWC. Among the main new shareholders, Telefonica confirmed its strategic investment and its willingness to integrate the technology into its portfolio to address additional verticals and applications.
The GMA (Global M2M Association) also announced a strategic collaboration with Gemalto and Ericsson to provide a Multi-Domestic Service based on a single SIM (using the eUICC technology) helping global enterprises (chiefly from the automotive and consumer electronics segments) capitalize on the growth of connected devices.
Growing market but still key challenges though
During his keynote, if AT&T Wireless CEO predicted that the smart phone will be the remote control of everything in the next few years, he also pointed out the key challenges to address in order to make the IoT market grow significantly:
• Privacy concerns
• Effortless (ease of use)
Data about devices and their users is generated in real-time, often by default and without the user being aware or having choice (especially for free apps). There is a need for a different approach to giving users transparency, choice and control over their data and privacy.
Generally user has a single choice : accept or not using the service, there should be gradual approach (like sharing some id attributes but not all of them).
Privacy could be a competitive stick for service providers, as users are becoming more aware of privacy.
Facebook in emerging countries
• Airtel: “Operators and Facebook are like the beauty and the beast, but the beast (facebook) is becoming more human nowadays”. Airtel was reluctant to introduce Facebook because of VoIP threat. Is looking at it like the “boiling milk”.
• Millicom, Telenor: have seen ARPU rise thanks to facebook launching, very promising for them.
• Wikipedia has the same approach of “Wikipedia zero”, dealing with operator to provide data access for free.
More informations about IDATE's expertise and events :
Valérie CHAILLOU Head of Research, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE
Accelerated growth in FTTH/B coverage from incumbents and enhancement in competition from new entrants, even in mature markets
In 2014, the dynamism of European markets (EU-35) was impressive: the number of subscribers reported the highest growth since end 2010 (nearly 55% increase). In terms of coverage, the increase reached 43%. This dynamism is led by countries such as Spain, where players have clearly played an important role and finally overpassed their initial objectives. There were nearly 14.6 million FTTH/B subscribers and more than 59 million homes passed in the EU-35 at end 2014.
In Spain, the incumbent Telefonica has decided to accelerate its rollouts aiming at covering 10 million households at end year, compared to less than 4 million at end 2013. This impressive growth and associated commercial strategy had a concrete impact on the Spanish market where, during the year, there were nearly 800,000 new FTTH subscribers.
Another noteworthy country is Romania where the leading players have decided to change their strategy and finally deploy FTTH/B when they were firstly focused on FTTx/LAN architecture in previous years. Therefore, the number of subscribers has considerably increased taking into account a total churn from end users. Those countries are followed by France, Turkey and the Netherlands (where, respectively, 25%, 24% and 39% of FTTH/B subscribers are new 2014 subscribers).
Elsewhere, Sweden still devotes to be highlighted: the latest trend in the country is to focus more and more on the single-dwelling units market which was not the first target of players involved in FTTH/B. The demand is steadily increasing since 2013 and, even if more complex and costly to deploy, FTTH to single-dwelling units is becoming a commodity. This is even truer for local fibre network players, involved in local scale rollouts, which have devoted half of their investments in targeting single-dwelling units in 2014. The Swedish incumbent was also very active in 2014, with more than 300,000 new Homes Passed yoy and an increase of around 31% in terms of FTTH/B Broadband subscribers. Then, the competitive landscape is also moving thanks to the involvement of smaller players that have strong ambition and get involved by acquiring local fibre networks previously owned by municipalities. Such trend should help Sweden keep a leading position on the European FTTH/B market.
On other markets, FTTH/B subscriptions also increased significantly. A part from Spain, the most performing country in 2014, we can mention the Netherlands where the number of FTTH/B subscribers has increased by 65%. France, Portugal, Turkey and Switzerland have also shown steady growth, in line with the trend we had already noted in 2013, with between 32 and 79% growth rate in the subscribers basis.
In terms of players involved in FTTH/B projects, alternative carriers are still leading the way, representing a 45% of the total homes passed in EU35 at end 2014 (67% considering EU39, which shows the important role of those players in Russia and Ukraine!). Among them, we can note this year the interesting role of recently entered players in countries considered as mature such as in Sweden and the Netherlands. Most of those players are backed with investment funds that help them strengthen their FTTH/B strategies.
The number of local authorities launching FTTH/B rollout projects on their territory has decreased a little bit in 2014 but they still represent only 9% of homes passed in EU35. Few new projects have been concretely launched by local authorities noted during 2014. There are some interesting rollouts in France, still in the context of the national program for superfast broadband, but most of them are still in the very beginning of the process. They represent some 600,000 homes passed end 2014.
Then, of course, incumbents are important players in all European countries. They represent 46% of HP in EU35 at end 2014, +3% compared to 2013. Several incumbents have considerably accelerated their rollouts in 2014. As in 2013, the most dynamic is Telefonica in Spain, but with a much more impressive growth: from 1.7 new Homes Passed in 2013, Telefonica reached more than 6 million new Homes Passed in 2014. Then come Orange in France (+897,000 HP), TeliaSonera in Sweden (+416,000 HP), KPN/Reggefiber in the Netherlands (+312,000 HP) and Turk Telekom in Turkey (+300,000 HP). It is also very interested to note the quite recent involvement of Bezeq in Israel, which decided to upgrade its infrastructure to FTTB: more than 1 million homes are now passed with FTTB but no services are available yet on the network. The operator is still focused on providing VDSL2 based services to end users for the moment, but it is betting on the need for higher speed rates in the near future and it is preparing itself to be able to provide required solutions very rapidly.
Number of FTTH/B subscribers per country in Europe (countries with more than 200 K subscribers)
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe
Number of FTTH/B homes passed per country in Europe (countries with more than a million homes passed)
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe
When enlarging the analysis to EU39, Russia and Ukraine are still very specific markets. Their respective demographic characteristics are so different from other countries that the comparison is not always very relevant. However, both markets are quite dynamic, with respectively +50 and +15% in terms of subscribers basis.
Regarding the technology deployed, Ethernet is still players’ first choice across the EU-39, and represented 66% of all FTTH/B rollouts at end 2014.
As concerns network architecture, most new deployments concerned FTTH which now represent 41% of homes passed at end 2014 (vs 34% one year ago). However, FTTB is still the favourite configuration as it allows them to avoid the issues that come with installing fibre on private property, and especially MDUs – i.e. having to negotiate with each property owner.
1 The term EU-35 refers to the EU-28 countries –Cyprus + Andorra, Iceland, Israel, Macedonia, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland and Turkey.
The EU-39 refers to the EU-35 + the four CIS Countries: Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Russia.
>> Our study about FTTH/B are interresting you ? Go on our store.
The 2014 digiworld summit "drawn from life" by Aurélie Bordenave, alias Léely. Discover all the strong moments. (texts are in french or in english)
Plenary: Business models, Rethinking the telcos business models in the 5G era
Keynote : Smart Glasses
Business models: Rethinking the telcos business models in the 5G era
Disruptive innovations: one step towards 5G
Smart City & Mobile living
Seminar "TV everywhere"
Seminar : "Business models: M2M & Internet of Things - Smarter objects, smarter processes"
Europe on the rebound ?
TV & facing Mobility
Le digiworld summit 2014 a réuni autour des questions de la mobilité près de 1 200 participants et 140 speakers du monde numérique. Les vidéos des moments forts de ces deux journées.
- L'interview de Laurent Solly, DG de Facebook France
- L'interview de Carlos Moreno, "La ville nous parle"