10Jul/140

Fixed and mobile ultra-fast network rankings

CHAILLOU_Valérie Valérie CHAILLOU Head of Research, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE

IDATE reveals global and European rankings

To mark the start of the 8th annual Assises du Très Haut Débit symposium, IDATE is releasing its ranking of countries that lead the way in ultra-fast fixed and mobile broadband subscriber numbers, in Europe and worldwide. An analysis and data culled directly from IDATE’s freshly updated FTTx and LTE global market watch, which examines hundreds of countries and operators.

Growing disparities in fixed ultra-fast broadband

At the end of 2013, ultra-fast broadband (UFB) access – i.e. with a throughput equal to or above 30 Mbps – represented 29% of all broadband connections worldwide. This marks real progress as the percentage stood at 22% just one year ago. FTTH/B is still the mostly widely deployed technology, accounting for 60% of UFB subscribers around the globe, followed by cablecos’ FTTx/D3.0 systems, which account for 29% of users, and VDSL for 11%. In terms of subscriber numbers, all UFB architectures combined, the United States is by far the global leader with 62.5 million subscribers at the end of 2013, compared to 42.4 million for China and 27 million for Japan. France is in eighth place with more than 2 million subscribers. Of course this ranking changes depending on the indicators that are taken into consideration, such UFB subscribers’ share of a country’s total broadband customer base. Here South Korea tops the ranks, ahead of the United States, Japan and China, with 66% – versus 64% for Japan, 60% for the United States and 22% for China. As to the technologies deployed, the US is the undisputed VDSL market leader with some 11 million subscribers, well ahead of the UK and its 2.1 million subscribers. The United States is also the world’s biggest FTTx/D3.0 market, with 42 million subscribers, again ahead of the UK which is home to 3.1 million subscribers, followed by Spain where competition between FTTH/B and FTTx/D3.0 is fierce.

Accelerate 4G rollouts

Meanwhile, LTE also continues to make tremendous strides. IDATE counts close to 212 million LTE subscribers around the world at the end of 2013, of which 190 million are located in just 10 countries. The revenue generated by these subscriptions tripled in 2013, to reach €68 billion or 6% of global mobile telephony revenue. The United States is the biggest LTE market with more than 100 million subscribers, or three times more than the number two market, Japan. France is in sixth place in terms of user numbers. There are several reasons for these huge disparities: telcos in the United States have far outspent their European counterparts on LTE rollouts (virtually double the Capex per capita), while in Japan and South Korea LTE is part of a strong ongoing industrial policy. Here, it is worth remembering that South Korea covered its entire population with LTE in just one year.

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Capture d’écran 2014-07-11 à 12.42.24

Filed under: FTTx, LTE No Comments
20Jun/140

FTTx services and pricing : positioning of offering

CHAILLOU_Valérie

Valérie CHAILLOU
Head of Research, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE

From less than 40 EUR to more than 100 EUR per month for 100 Mbps access

IDATE’s latest report focuses on the services offered by telecom and cable operators via their FTTx infrastructures. It analyses the various speeds offered, the services included in the offering, pricing tiers and also highlights disparities between regions.

The speed race has not yet reached the finish line

Over the past few months, many operators have announced the launch of new offerings with even higher speeds, thanks to their FTTH/B networks. In the space of six months, no fewer than five operators in Europe have launched 1 Gbps offerings! Up until then, 100 Mbps was considered the norm for ultra-fast broadband (UFB), but now there are many offerings with 300, 400 or 500 Mbps speeds. These are not always very visible and are sometimes not even available as part of a bundle (this is the case with Verizon's 500 Mbps offering, which is only available as a stand-alone service). However, this strategy allows telecom operators using FTTH to differentiate themselves better from cable operators whose peak speeds are normally around 150 to 200 Mbps.

Segmentation of services: speeds and TV/video services prioritised

UFB players do not always go for strong segmentation based on available speeds. As a general rule, plans are built around 3 to 4 speeds, but for some, the offering is limited to 1 or 2 speeds, continuing on from the positioning they adopted in the traditional broadband market.
As for TV and video services, segmentation is sometimes stronger due to providing customers with themed packages (sports, movies, kids), especially for players from English-speaking countries. Generally speaking, telecom and cable operators from English-speaking countries have a very specific approach because they mainly promote video services and TV channels. Speed is only a secondary selling point. Their offerings are characterised by an increasing number of plans available with the ability to customise bundles (or, for more pragmatic players, to help select a pre-configured bundle).
In other regions, the approach seems more pragmatic, with fewer bundles and a more limited choice for end users.

With a lack of innovative services, prices are remaining stable

None of the players studied here offers a particularly innovative service. Most bundle add-ons, such as new set-top box features, cloud-based storage, antivirus, etc., are systematically added to the basic offering. Therefore, operators are unable to differentiate themselves from each other. A very small number of players, such as Altibox in Norway and HKBN in Hong Kong, are exploiting the technical characteristics of FTTH networks to offer genuinely differentiated services with symmetric upload/download speeds. In the short term, it seems very likely that speed (including symmetry, guarantees, faster speeds) will remain the main area to exploit for UFB operators.

This should impact prices offered, which have remained relatively stable in each of the major regions over the past year.

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If you want to discover our last study on this subject.

27Mar/140

VDSL2 – G.Fast – FTTdp: Copper gets turbocharged

CHAILLOU_Valérie
 
 
Valérie CHAILLOU
Head of Research, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE
 
 

Telcos have ambitious Vectoring rollout plans, with some aiming to have between 25% and 30% of VDSL2 lines covered by 2017.

Vectoring and bonding are starting to be deployed in certain countries, even if the technical and regulatory constraints would seem to point to only small-scale rollouts. G.Fast is the next generation standard being examined today. The report we released provides readers with an update on the latest technological developments in VDSL2.

VDSL2 & Co: ever more promising technological developments

VDSL2 has begun to be implemented, and several telcos have based their ultra-fast broadband strategies squarely on copper infrastructure right up to the customer premises. If VDSL can deliver theoretical speeds of around 50 Mbps near the exchange or cabinet, Vectoring, which consists of reducing noise among the lines, makes it possible to double that speed to 100 Mbps. Bonding, meanwhile, consists of using several copper pairs, either to double speeds for users in the vicinity of the exchange, or double the distance at which a 50 Mbps connection is available. In both cases, however, performances are very quickly affected by the subscriber’s distance from the exchange or cabinet.
G.Fast, which is the future standard currently under examination, and due to be approved in
2014, offers a theoretical speed of 1 Gbps, but noise cancellation capabilities are even stronger.

Growth of VDSL subscribers worldwide between December 2010 and June 2013 (million)

Growth of VDSL subscribers worldwide between December 2010 and June 2013 (million)

Source: IDATE

Still only small-scale implementation of VDSL2 and its successors

In mid-2013, customers subscribing to a VDSL2 ultra-fast broadband service represented 19% of the world’s FTTH/B subscribers. The vast majority of deployments have been performed by AT&T in the United States, which is reporting 26 million VDSL2-ready households and more than 9 million subscribers. AT&T continues to bank on these solutions, and is now offering pair bonding to eligible customers.
Western Europe is the second biggest VDSL market, accounting for 35% of the world’s subscribers as of mid-2013.

Will this drive a shift in the ultra-fast broadband market?

VDSL2 and its successors have a clear set of advantages, starting with savings on rollouts. Telcos would not need to deploy optical fiber from end to end, and can use the existing last mile of their networks. They would also save on customer premises installations, which cost them a great deal of time and money.
The performances offered by these new solutions appear to be coming more and more in line with those delivered by FTTH (at least in its current iteration), but only under optimal conditions. So this is not a solution that can be made available to everyone. Plus, VDSL Vectoring does not enable physical sub-loop unbundling, in which case bitstream remains the only option for sharing access to the network – something that not all market players want, as is the case in France, for instance.

As a result, even if the development prospects for the VDSL market remain optimistic for the coming years, we do not expect it to cause a major upheaval in the ultra-fast broadband hierarchy, with FTTH/B continuing to be the architecture of choice.

19Feb/142

Inventory of FTTH/B in Europe

CHAILLOU_Valérie

 

Valérie CHAILLOU

Head of Research, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE

 

A noticeable new impetus from some FTTH/B incumbents with a significant impact on coverage growth

Europe (EU-35) reported a solid 33% increase in the number of FTTH/B subscribers in 2013. FTTH/B coverage continues to progress fast in Europe with a growth of 22% in the period. There were more than 9.5 million FTTH/B subscribers in the EU-35 at end 2013, and nearly 41 million homes passed.

During 2013, several countries showed a real dynamism both in terms of coverage and take up rates. Even with not comparable to other larger markets due to its demographic characteristics, Switzerland is leading the panorama in terms of percentage of new subscribers in the total FTTH/B subscribers' basis (70% of FTTH/B subscribers at end 2013 are new subscribers). The country is followed by much larger markets such as Turkey, Spain and Poland (where, respectively, 46%, 39% and 32% of FTTH/B subscribers are new 2013 subscribers). In Turkey, the competition between Turk Telekom and Turkcell SuperOnline is very strong and, even if entered later on the market, the incumbent has now overpassed its competitor in terms of coverage.

Number of FTTH/B subscribers per country in Europe

(countries with more than 200 K subscribers)
Number of FTTH/B suscribers per country in Europe

Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe

Elsewhere in Europe, pioneering Scandinavian countries, sometimes already considered as mature, are still leading the European market. The Danish FTTH/B market grew by 30% in 2013 in terms of number of subscribers. This growth is mostly due to the dynamism of Waoo!, the joint venture created by 15 utilities, a very innovative and rare model in Europe: all utilities provide services under the same commercial brand name but operate their own independent and local networks. In Finland, such as in neighbouring countries, many local players are deeply involved in FTTH/B rollouts, without waiting for one large player to deploy a nationwide infrastructure. This seems to correspond to end users' needs: FTTH/B connections are more and more considered as a utility and therefore often included in the apartment monthly rental. Then, Sweden still shows an interesting dynamism: in 2013, the number of subscribers increased by 18%.

Then, on other markets, FTTH/B subscriptions also increased significantly. In the total, 16 countries present a 30% or more growth in terms of subscribers in 2013, among which France, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, and even Germany and the UK, not known as exemplary countries as regards FTTH/B strategy.

In terms of players involved in FTTH/B projects, alternative carriers are still leading the way, representing a 45% of the total homes passed in EU35 at end 2013 (nearly 68% considering EU39, which shows the important role of those players in Russia and Ukraine!). Among them, we can note the dynamism of Vodafone which significantly increased its coverage in both Portugal and Spain.

Number of FTTH/B homes passed per country in Europe

(countries with more than a million homes passed)
FTTH/B homers passed per country in Europe

Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe

The number of local authorities launching FTTH/B rollout projects on their territory is increasing a little bit but they still represent only some 11.9% of homes passed in EU35. Few new projects launched by local authorities have been noted during 2013. There are some interesting rollouts in France in the context of the national program for superfast broadband, but most of them are still in the very beginning of the process. They represent some 450,000 homes passed end 2013.

Then, of course, incumbents are important players in all European countries. They represent 43.1% of HP in EU35 at end 2013, +5% compared to 2012. Several incumbents have considerably accelerated their rollouts in 2013. The most dynamic is Telefonica in Spain, with 1.3 million new homes passed between December 2012 and December 2013. Then come Orange in France (+849,000 HP), Turk Telekom in Turkey (+500,000 HP), KPN/Reggefiber in the Netherlands (+385,000 HP) and TeliaSonera in Sweden (+350,000 HP). The recent involvement of Swisscom in Switzerland is also noticeable: the incumbent, previously much more focused on FTTN+VDSL, has decided to accelerate its FTTH coverage and added 198,000 new homes passed to its footprint in 2013.

More data on our FTTx Whitepaper Updated with 2014 figures

More information on Worldwide panorama of FTTx rollout Status report & database

19Feb/142

Ultra-fast broadband world market

CHAILLOU_Valérie

 

Valérie CHAILLOU

Head of Research, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE

 

Ultra-fast broadband revenues will grow by 95% over the 5 next years to reach 182 billion EUR in 2017


We have released the latest issue of our World FTTx database, which is part of our ongoing service covering the ultra-fast broadband market. It provides key data on this market across the globe, covering more than 70 countries and 150 key players, and providing forecasts up to 2017.

Valérie Chaillou, FTTx lead analyst at IDATE, notes “growth perspectives remains still high when superfast technologies (For definition of superfast platforms we have considered here 3 main architectures: FTTH/B, FTTN and FTTLA) represent 22% of broadband access subscriptions at mid-2013, and we expect ultra-fast broadband revenues will grow by 95% over the 5 next years to reach 182 billion EUR in 2017”

Compared growth of VDSL and FTTH/B subscribers, 2012-2017 & Breakdown of Ultra-fast broadband technologies, at mid-2013

Source: IDATE, December 2013

• Eastern Europe will see its take up rate increase from 28% to 49% in 5 years, much higher than in Western Europe during all the period, from 21% at end 2012 to 32% at end 2017.

• FTTH/B is the leading ultra-fast broadband solution, far from FTTLA then VDSL : FTTH/B represents 66% of FTTx subscriptions at mid 2013, compared to 22% for FTTLA and 12% for FTTN+VDSL

• But the regional breakdown is very heterogeneous
- FTTH/B is clearly the technology of choice in APAC whereas
- FTTLA is leading the ultra-fast broadband market in Western Europe and North America.
- VDSL is a technology of choice for several European incumbents.
- Latin America and Middle East countries are at the very beginning of their NGA rollouts: they will participate to the global growth of superfast broadband more and more in the coming years.

• There are still questions from large players regarding the opportunity to deploy FTTH/B or VDSL, mainly in Europe.
- Several parameters are to be taken into account among which, of course, the required investment. Nevertheless FTTH/B rollouts did progress in certain European countries which are encouraging at a time when EU Telcos are seeing their margins shrinking.
- Some players are betting on the future capacities of copperbased networks.

Top 10 FTTx worldwide players, at end 2013

Source: IDATE, December 2013

FTTH Operators ranking: 6 Asian and 4 American telcos make up the world’s Top 10

Only one player involved in large FTTN+VDSL deployment among them (AT&T), then two cablecos
upgrading their infrastructures to FTTLA (Comcast and TWC). 7 operators among this top 10 have choosen the FTTH/B technology.

More data on our FTTx Whitepaper Updated with 2014 figures

More information on Worldwide panorama of FTTx rollout Status report & database

13Feb/140

Edito by Yves Gassot

GASSOT Yves
 
Yves Gassot

CEO, IDATE


Round-up for 2014

It’s hard, in the first editorial of the year, to avoid laying out the overriding themes that we expect to see play out over the next twelve months. But it is still too early for me to deliver a complete summary of the year gone by, which has become the much-anticipated task of our DigiWorld Yearbook.
You will also need to wait until the next Executive Note to find out the central topic selected for this year’s DigiWorld Summit (but you can already mark your calendars for November 18, 19 and 20).

What I can share with you, however, is our belief in the profound relevance of certain issues, by summarising three topics that we have chosen to explore in this year’s Collaborative Research Programme (CRP 2014). These are think tanks open to existing IDATE member companies and those wanting to join, who will work for close to a year with a dedicated team of our analysts on the following subjects:

Telecoms USA: model or counter-model?

Following thorough on the two projects carried out in Brussels in 2012 and 2013 on telcos’ new business models, and the new European policy options being considered, we will work to deepen our understanding of the specific points that explain the different directions being taken on either side of the Atlantic.

The internet of things: will everything be connected?

We are going to analyse the true potential of the internet of things, by taking account of the developments that need to occur in the technical environment, difficulties in generating income from both consumer objects and industry applications and, finally, governance and personal data ownership issues, with tie-ins to our 2013 think tank on personal data

What will tomorrow’s TV and video networks look like?

Here we are building on the 2013 Video as a Service think tank by exploring issues surrounding the future of television and video distribution networks, and by analysing long-term scenarios for the delivery of TV and video products, taking particular account of the cooperation and convergence between networks, i.e. hybridisation involving both fixed and cellular networks

Other topics may be added to the CRP. For instance, we are contemplating an ambitious project that aims to define what could be a comprehensive, metropolitan area-scale digital investment strategy, going beyond marketing clichés and segmented vertical approaches.

I can also tell you that the next issue of Communications & Strategies (DigiWorld Economic journal) will be published in March, and is shaping up to be a promising one. It will be devoted to scoring Europe’s telecommunications sector, and examining potentially clashing policies.
And, finally, a reminder that the best way to delve into the subjects that are consuming our teams is though the reports that we publish every month as part of our annual Market Research programme.

4Feb/140

Sorry, but this post is not available in English

27Nov/13Off

[CR] NGN Funding – DigiWorld Summit 2013

DigiWorld Summit 2013 - The digital gold mines

Thomas CALDIRONI

Consultant at IDATE

Réseaux Très Haut Débit et intervention publique

Financement dréseaux Très Haut Débit - Articulation acteurs publics/privés

En France depuis 2004 et la loi pour la confiance dans l'économie numérique, mais aussi à l'étranger, l'intervention publique dans les réseaux Haut et Très Haut Débit est une réalité avec un impact direct sur l'aménagement numérique des territoires, mais également sur la création d'activités et d'emplois. Ces interventions publiques ont pris des formes différentes afin de permettre de garantir une bonne articulation entre investissements privés et intervention publique.

Retrouvez le programme et les intervenants du séminaire NGN Funding

L'intervention publique est évidemment incontournable pour aménager en très haut débit les territoires. Le THD par la seule action du marché, n'impacte que les zones denses et moyennement denses. Les zones moins denses et rurales sont délaissées par les opérateurs privés, légitimement vu l'absence de rentabilité, accentuant ainsi la "fracture numérique".

Le déploiement des réseaux à très haut débit est une véritable source de croissance pour l'ensemble de l'économie avec à la clé la création de plusieurs milliers d'emplois. En ce sens, les acteurs publics ne peuvent être absents de ces infrastructures qui sont essentielles pour le 21ième siècle au même titre que l'ont été les réseaux d'électricité ou de transport pour le 20ième siècle.

Il s'agit en effet d'abord d'emplois directs pour construire et exploiter ces réseaux, avec des emplois non délocalisables. Mais au-delà des emplois directs, il s'agit aussi d'emplois indirects, du fait de l'accroissement de compétitivité issu de ces réseaux et qui va bénéficier à l'ensemble des filières économiques et du fait aussi des nouveaux services et usages du numérique qui vont se développer.

perspectives THD en France by IDATE & FiRiP

Source :Synthèse de l’Observatoire des entreprises intervenant dans les Réseaux d’Initiative Publique (RIP) – Enquête FIRIP / IDATE

Les collectivités locales en France ont pris conscience des enjeux liés au THD pour leurs territoires. Les Schémas Directeurs Territoriaux d'Aménagement Numérique (SDTAN), portent désormais sur 98 départements, soit la quasi-totalité du territoire national. Ces SDTAN permettent une bonne articulation entre les déploiements privés ciblant les zones très denses ou moyennement denses et l'intervention publique centrée sur les zones peu denses.

Les faits

• L'intervention publique est indispensable pour le déploiement du Très Haut Débit ;
• Le déploiement de la fibre optique public et privé génère des emplois directs non délocalisables et des emplois indirects ;
• Le partenariat entre le public et le privé est nécessaire pour le développement du Très Haut Débit ;

Les citations

"Est-ce que le pari du Très Haut Débit ne vaut pas la peine d'être tenté ?" Pierre-Michel Attali, IDATE

• "Les RIP départementaux et régionaux ont permis le déploiement de 373 000 prises FTTH, le dégroupage de 828 000 prises ADSL, de raccorder en fibre optique 2 500 ZA, ainsi que de rendre raccordable en fibre optique 9 000 sites publics" Christophe Genter, Caisse des dépôts et Consignation

"Les RIP ont permis la création de 3 000 emplois directs, non délocalisables mais exportables. En 2012, les entreprises de la filière RIP ont généré un chiffre d'affaire de 1.1 milliards d'euros" Etienne Dugas, FIRIP

"La qualité du partenariat public / privé permet de faciliter le déploiement du FTTH sur l'ensemble des territoires" Rachid Adda, Conseil Général Val d'Oise

" Market operators continue to invest around 15 bn annually for fixed network roll-outs in Europe" Jussi Hatonen, European Investment Bank

"Le marché des RIP est très actif en France, mais pour assurer la réussite des RIP, il faut que les collectivités soient maître de leurs réseaux grâce notamment au lancement de services activés" David Elfassy, Altitude infrastructure

"La fibre optique est une infrastructure essentielle du 21ième siècle au même titre que l'électricité au 20ème siècle " Pierre-Eric Saint-André, Axione

"En France, plus de 300 000 foyers n'ont pas accès à internet : dès à présent, le satellite propose des solutions économiques, simples et performantes" Philippe Baudrier, Eutelsat

"Est-ce que le pari du Très Haut Débit ne vaut pas la peine d'être tenté ?" Pierre-Michel Attali, IDATE

"Les RIP départementaux et régionaux ont permis le déploiement de 373 000 prises FTTH, le dégroupage de 828 000 prises ADSL, de raccorder en fibre optique 2 500 ZA, ainsi que de rendre raccordable en fibre optique 9 000 sites publics" Christophe Genter, Caisse des dépôts et Consignation

"Les RIP ont permis la création de 3 000 emplois directs, non délocalisables mais exportables. En 2012, les entreprises de la filière RIP ont généré un chiffre d'affaire de 1.1 milliards d'euros" Etienne Dugas, FIRIP

"La qualité du partenariat public / privé permet de faciliter le déploiement du FTTH sur l'ensemble des territoires" Rachid Adda, Conseil Général Val d'Oise

" Market operators continue to invest around 15 bn annually for fixed network roll-outs in Europe" Jussi Hatonen, European Investment Bank

"Le marché des RIP est très actif en France, mais pour assurer la réussite des RIP, il faut que les collectivités soient maître de leurs réseaux grâce notamment au lancement de services activés" David Elfassy, Altitude infrastructure

"La fibre optique est une infrastructure essentielle du 21ième siècle au même titre que l'électricité au 20ème siècle" Pierre-Eric Saint-André, Axione

"En France, plus de 300 000 foyers n'ont pas accès à internet : dès à présent, le satellite propose des solutions économiques, simples et performantes" Philippe Baudrier, Eutelsat

A propos

Pierre Michel Attali et les consultants de l’unité Développement de l'IDATE accompagnent les collectivités locales (Régions, Départements, Agglomérations, Villes) dans leur réflexion stratégique pour la mise en œuvre des Technologies de l'Information sur leurs territoires, au travers de projets de type schéma directeur de haut et très haut débit et de missions d'assistance à maîtrise d'ouvrage pour le déploiement opérationnel des réseaux.

L’unité Développement de l'IDATE a une expertise reconnue auprès des collectivités et des pouvoirs publics locaux et nationaux. Les consultants interviennent sur l’ensemble des problématiques numériques en offrant une palette de prestations répondant aux attentes des clients de l'IDATE.

DigiWorld Summit - du 19 au 21 Novembre 2013

Retrouvez les médias enrichis produits pendant la conférence :

26Nov/13Off

[CR] Future Internet Networks – DigiWorld Summit

DigiWorld Summit 2013 - The digital gold mines

Julien GaudemerJulien GAUDEMER

Consultant at IDATE

Future Internet Networks

More and more devices connected, more and more service providers, more and more content consumed… leading to more and more data traffic! In this seminar, experts, network equipment providers and operators have drawn on how the future Internet networks may look like through the analysis of the major emerging trends by 2025 : SDN (Software Defined Network), NFV (Network Function Virtualization), 5G, M2M (Machine to Machine) and Internet of Things have been at the center of discussions.

Find the programme and speakers of the Future Internet Networks Seminar online

Introducing a new era of network infrastructure with SDN and network virtualization

The first round table provided hot discussions on SDN and NFV with speakers from telco, from network solutions and from network equipment manufacturer. These are the questions asked to the speakers:

When future network will be rolled out?

• Network is the next step in the virtualization trend following servers and storage. SDN and NFV require important changes, proof of concept, and trials before a roll out. Such steps require years.
• Moreover, as Ryan SHUTTLEWORTH from Verizon said “SDN and NFV are not mature technologies yet.” SDN is currently rolled out at the scale of a datacenter and not really at a telco network level.

What are the main drivers?

• Savings is the first obvious driver of such technologies, but generated new revenues are also an important benefit to consider. The agility and the simplification of operations are also strong promises of SDN.
• Besides, the ability to make a link between cloud services (virtualized servers) and the virtualized network should be an interesting benefit.

What is the impact on the ecosystem?

• On the supplier side, new suppliers are expected to come. Moreover, the elasticity of the infrastructures created by SDN and NFV can lead to new business models. It will also enable a new level of developers.
• In general, changes related to the implementation of these new networks will have to be managed internally by both equipment vendors and telcos. Those who manage correctly IT, network and cloud will be able to leverage a strong competitive advantage.

Another aspect has been introduced then, related to content distribution: the future of Content Delivery Networks, illustrated by Ahmet OZALP from Akamai. He presented 11 predictions for this future. Among these predictions:

• As traffic will grow exponentially, CDN should be used also more and more in order to reduce the overall traffic. In 2012, CDN traffic was 53% of all consumer traffic and should be up to 65% in 2017 according to Akamai.
• Connected devices will bring complexity to deliver services correctly: especially Connected TVs and Home consoles. All devices support various protocols and formats that has to be handled to deliver services.
• CDN architectures should evolve. In the future the content will be closer to the end-user, providing cache servers closer to the access network, as in the figure below from Akamai presentation.

The future of Content Delivery Networks

pay-TV market USA

Source: Ahmet OZALP from Akamai

• The cooperation between CDN and telcos will be stronger in the future in order to reduce the traffic. In addition, CDN should enhance OTT video quality, exceeding traditional TV quality level. CDN services should become more and more cost effective. In the end, CDN market will have a healthy growth.

The focus of this seminar then shift to Franck BOUETARD from Ericsson with a presentation of Marc Plaszczynski, from Thales Alenia Space.

• Regarding the evolution of satellites, Mr. Plaszczynski mentioned that “Satellite Systems have enhanced their broadcast capabilities with high-value, integrated, flexible and interactive new Satellite solutions”.
• In addition, Satellite systems are adapting to support efficiently the Future Internet Networks evolution with hybrid end-to-end Systems. Satellite systems have also made improvements a comprehensive set of skills and solutions to foresee the unforeseeable.

Franck BOUETARD from Ericsson then presented his view on drivers of the future networks and 5G. He especially mentioned the Metis Consortium, 29 partners led by Ericsson, looking to 5G for after 2020. There are 5 things to address as mentioned in the figure below. Drivers for future networks are mobility, video traffic, 50 billion connected devices, high speed access, Network cloud and QoS.

Metis Project Objectives Ericsson

Source: Franck BOUETARD's slides, Ericsson

Tailoring future networks for the Internet of Things

Samuel Ropert from IDATE then introduced the second round table about Internet of Things :

• M2M is the first step of IoT. It is especially a combination of various value chains: electronic, telecom, computing, and machines themselves
• IDATE forecast; in 2017, M2M SIM cards represent
- 5,9% of all SIM cards (human and machine) worldwide
- 14% of all SIM cards in Europe
• BUT In 2017, M2M connectivity revenues represent
- 1.3% of mobile revenues worldwide

The main topics discussed during this round table are as followed:

Technologies Issues

• Regarding communication technologies, M2M players mentioned that they are focusing particularly on 2G, low energy equipment, low bandwidth, as low cost is fine for objects. 4G is 7 time more expensive than 2G. Working on special 4G for machines require standardization, expected for 2017-18. Use cases are also important. For cars for example, LTE may make sense, even if expensive. Another example is video surveillance that is expensive but 4G brings quality.
• Regarding security issues, wireless is secure. The issue is protecting user privacy. For instance cars: driving too fast, location … can be obtained through M2M, but how do we protect privacy? The EU is trying to tackle the problem, but it all comes down to privacy, how is it guaranteed?

Need for standardization?

• M2M is everything but standardized. A lot of use cases are emerging, but no standards. Gathering the right data is difficult, accurately, and analyzing it. It is not a problem of big (too much) data, but accuracy.
• There is maybe a need for hierarchy of objects for standardization. In the last 5 years: it has been pushed by regulation. Ehealth seems to be most promising growth.

What role will startups play?

• They can play active role in creating applications.

Nicolas Demassieux from Orange concluded the session with a longer perspective vision on future networks. He especially mentioned that SDN can be compared to PC computer architecture with hardware managed by software, managed by the user. More generally, the current concept of communication infrastructures will be transformed to services distributed across “device + Network + Cloud”.

DigiWorld Summit - 19th to 21st Nomember 2013

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Growth of superfast broadband in North America

CHAILLOU_Valérie

Valérie CHAILLOU

Head of Research, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE

 

 

The North American superfast broadband market represents 25.3% of the worldwide market at end 2012

  • Superfast broadband has grown much more rapidly in the USA than in Canada.
    • Both AT&T and Verizon, largest RBOCs, have decided to deploy their own superfast broadband networks to be able to provide competitive services faced with cablecos.
    • They have chosen different architecture: FTTN+VDSL for AT&T and FTTH for Verizon.
  • In Canada, the involvement of telcos is much more recent but announcements have been made by Bell Aliant regarding future FTTH rollouts.

In the USA, we consider that all major cablecos have upgraded their entire infrastructures with FTTLA + Docsis 3.0.

  • They are now able to provide superfast solutions to 100 M households in the country.
  • The cablecos do not always focus on higher available speed rates: some of them only provide up to 50 Mbps to end users. This can be considered as a way to keep some margin for future commercial positioning.
  • Cablecos as well as telcos are really focusing on TV and video services.
  • The average ARPU for FTTH services reaches 110 EUR compared to around 45 EUR for cable-based services.
Breakdown of FTTx access technologies in North American at end 2012

Breakdown of FTTx access technologies

Source: IDATE

This analysis is an excerpt of our World FTTx Markets Database & Status report