Didier Pouillot & Sophie Lubrano , IDATE DigiWorld
Faced with the challenge of digitising government operations, the economy and everyday life, Africa is innovating with singular development models that make use of the latest technologies.
Africa has a number of singular features that have carried over into an original development model. First, the weak purchasing power in most countries has driven the rise of a low-cost market, both for services and mobile handsets, primarily with a prepaid model. The transition to data services could follow the same path, dominated by low-end plans billed based on data volume. Further down the road, Africa’s growing middle class will make it possible to move beyond the low-cost approach and foster the development of value-added products.
The region has also managed to capitalise on the latest technologies, leapfrogging over several stages of development, starting with the use of wireless technologies for accessing the Web. The continent should also benefit eventually from upcoming innovations such as constellations (drones, balloons, micro–satellites) to bring access to rural areas. Lastly, Africa has been a seedbed of innovations in services, in the financial arena (e.g. the well-known success of e-money), health, farming and education. Also noteworthy is the development of entertainment services, with well established film and TV production hubs and the more recent video game hubs.
Africa’s digital industry is expanding, with the creation of technology hubs, incubators for start-ups, regional trade and collaboration networks, bolstered by the support of local governments and global digital industry leaders.
DELVE DEEPER WITH THE FOLLOWING IDATE DIGIWORLD MARKET REPORTS
World Telecom Services Market: Trends & Analyses, July to December 2015 – Jan. 2016
World LTE market & MBB spectrum: Markets at June 2015 & Forecasts to 2019
World FTTx market: Markets at December 2015 & Forecasts to 2020 – Jul. 2016
Telco investment challenges: CapEx dynamics – Dec. 2015
Financial market transformation: The challenges and opportunities of FinTech for the financial industry
Senior Consultant, IDATE DigiWorld
Banking has long represented a big market for IT and digital technologies. It is probably one of the sectors that has invested the most in information technologies over time, for retail banking activities, and more recently for risk control systems to ensure compliance with banking and finance regulations.
More recently, however, digital innovation in this sector has been overtaken by the explosion of FinTech. Hundreds of start-ups have demonstrated the potential to innovate and transform the banking and finance as we know it. In light of recent events, several areas of innovation have emerged from the development of FinTech, either in competition or partnership with veteran banking industry players.
Every corner of the financial sector is affected, from payment solutions, to credit and lending activities faced with crowdsourced alternatives, the use of blockchains and cryptocurrency-based solutions, to the emergence of high frequency trading, big data analysis solutions and AI roboadvisors.
These technologies are disrupting the finance ecosystem, and paving the way for new players, and new business models. They also open up opportunities for the industry to transform itself and become more efficient and profitable.
DELVE DEEPER WITH THE FOLLOWING IDATE DIGIWORLD MARKET REPORTS
Pierre-Michel Attali & Nicolas Moreno, IDATE DigiWorld
Europe 2020, the key document in Europe’s growth strategy for the coming years, published by the EuropeanCommission in May 2010, unveiled the objectives of the Digital Agenda for Europe (DAE).
One of the main questions concerns the efficiency of the different national plans (technological approach, funding, regulation…) which have been designed to achieve the objectives of the DAE.
National programme objectives in sync with the Digital Agenda for Europe
With the exception of France, whose coverage objectives are two years behind Europe’s, and Sweden which does not have specific time-related targets, many national plans are in line with DAE coverage objectives. Most European countries have also set additional targets, in most cases to achieve more ambitious UFB objectives, either in terms of connection speeds (France, Italy) or time frame (Germany, Sweden).
Currently disparate landscape
The disparate coverage levels in European countries cannot be attributed to any single factor, but rather to a combination of demographics, technological choices and the strength of private investment. Each European country has established a public policy (objectives, technologies) based on its own situation and features. These national plans are vital but in themselves not enough to achieve complete superfast coverage, or nationwide ultrafast 100 Mbps coverage down the road.
DELVE DEEPER WITH THE FOLLOWING IDATE DIGIWORLD MARKET REPORTS
World FTTx market: Markets at December 2015 & Forecasts to 2020,July 2016
Digital Agenda Europe, Europe (EU-28) at the end of 2015, July 2016
Public policies for UFB, Benchmarking 7 countries in relation to the Digital Agenda for Europe, June 2016
Telco investment challenges, CapEX dynamics, Dec. 2015
Lead IoT Expert , IDATE DigiWorld
Although the Internet of Things is a powerful concept, it is not necessarily a market in and of itself. IoT encompasses a very disparate array of fields that need to be examined separately, to obtain an accurate understanding of their particular features, and their true growth potential.
More operationally, beyond cost savings opportunities (mainly through various internal optimisations), with more and more connected objects, new services will emerge – chiefly through the connectivity itself (remote control applications), but also via the data generated by the machines. Leading industrial heavyweights already have their own data-oriented department.
On the industrial side, two approaches can be distinguished: traditional machine-to-machine and the ‘industrial internet’: the latter referring to an interconnected ecosystem and the former to a more siloed approach. In the main, the creation of value in the industrial Internet lies in data collection and analysis. The main question then for market players is how to collect data and analyse them, to then generate revenue. The bulk of M2M revenue should come from software and IT integration as primary applications, with the aim of enabling massive savings within verticals. Consequently, all providers are working on delivering an end-to-end solution with a strong service bent – even if this might require acquisitions for some verticals.
Applied to the consumer world, the Internet of Things (IoT) refers to smart home and connected objects in general, relatively new markets that are starting to take off. Even if questions are being raised over the sustainability of their adoption. The main reason is the lack of services attached to these objects, apart from remote use, through a mobile app. Many applications would be based on data generated by those things. However, unlike the industrial market, data privacy is a major concern here as it involves consumers’ approval. The blurred lines around privacy regulation have made all of the ecosystem’s players reluctant to provide consumer market solutions. Another hurdle is to determine what value-added comes from connecting these objects, and how to monetise the data they generate: will all objects be connected? Will all data be valuable? If so, how valuable?
DELVE DEEPER WITH THE FOLLOWING IDATE DIGIWORLD MARKET REPORTS
• Smart Home, A promising market, taking off slowly, Dec. 2015
Senior Consultant, IDATE DigiWorld
A mini share of the global telecom and IT equipment market, but a maximum impact on the networks’ capabilities
72 telco SDN/NFV projects benchmarked
The latest IDATE report – “State of the SDN/NFV market” – spotlights the main pioneering players in terms of SDN/NFV implementation, and what they are doing today. The report provides a separate dataset with 72 detailed project fact sheets as of August 2016, as well as an analysis of major stakeholders – telcos and vendors – and their strategies to evolve and transform their networks to a software-based infrastructure.
“These projects are at different stages, ranging from trial to deployment, but a few (36%) have achieved a commercial launch. Whatever their level of development, most of these projects are taking place in developed countries: Europe, the US, Japan, South Korea and China,” says Tiana Ramahandry, the report’s project leader.
SDN/NFV projects per status
Source: IDATE DigiWorld, State of SDN/NFV and network investments, September 2016
Telcos’ adoption of SDN and NFV over the long term
IDATE DigiWorld analysts provide SDN/NFV market sizing data, with coming investment forecasts up to 2020. Even this market, which is expected to reach almost 19 billion EUR by 2020, remains very marginal compared to the telecom and IT equipment market, which itself is estimated at over 300 billion EUR, transformation potential in network management will be huge, as will telcos’ opportunities to adopt new services and innovative business models.
While a modest part of the global SDN and NFV market will be captured by telcos in 2020, NFV is being implemented more and more with the growing number of cloud and SDN solutions being introduced for new business services. Telcos’ large-scale deployments are expected to begin in 2016, and their CAGR over the next five years is projected to stand at 47%.
Indeed, the vast majority of the market will come from enterprises and cloud service providers that were the first to adopt SDN for use in datacentres, for both internal operations and connections with other datacentres.
Discover the perspectives, key trends, and scenarios about "SDN & NFV market" and contact Tiana Ramahandry for further information.
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Debate over the crucial role that trust will play in the digital economy’s future
The 38th annual DigiWorld Summit will run from 15 – 17 November 2016, and have as its central theme: The Internet of Trust. It will be an opportunity to engage in a meaningful international debate over digital trust issues – starting with security and privacy – which have become major sources of concern for all of the ecosystem’s stakeholders.
As the number of reported cyber-attacks worldwide is growing by close to 40% a year, we expect that upcoming stages in digital technologies’ evolution will only amplify the phenomenon. And this to such an extent that any future scenario is possible: from a continuation of the current chaos to a breakdown in trust that would lead to the construction of a new digital economy, which will no doubt differ in many respects from the one we know today.=
• Are we reaching a tolerance threshold for online trust?
• How can veteran digital industry players (equipment suppliers, telcos, IT companies) capitalise on the current climate?
• Are verticals threatened by the situation or, on the contrary, on the winning side of trust and security issues?
• Do we need a new regulatory framework to govern, or reassure, market players and consumers?
> Including the 120 speakers on this edition:
• Eva BERNEKE, CEO, KMD
• Anne BOUVEROT, CEO, Morpho
• Isabelle FALQUE-PIERROTIN, Chairwoman, CNIL
• Pierre, CHAPPAZ, Co-founder & Executive Chairman, Teads
• Didier LAMOUCHE, President & CEO, Oberthur
• Joseph LUBIN, Founder & CEO, ConsenSys, Co-Founder Ethereum
• Carlos LOPEZ BLANCO, Global Head, Public and Regulatory Affairs, Telefónica
• Stéphane RICHARD, Chairman & CEO, Orange
• Corrado SCIOLLA, President Europe, BT Global Services
• Nicolas SEKKAKI, CEO France, IBM
Choosing the theme for the 2016 DigiWorld Summit came about quite naturally. The vast majority of IDATE DigiWorld were eager to tackle the topic of trust.
For some time now, trust has been recognised as a vital ingredient in the success of a brand, an economy or a society. This is all the more true in a world being transformed by digital innovation. In its scenarios for 2025, IDATE DigiWorld underscored that trust was one of the key variables in tomorrow’s digital ecosystem. To shore up this belief, we need only look at some recent headlines:
• the cyberattacks against telcos, TV networks and government agencies,
• the legal wrangles between Apple and WhatsApp and government authorities wanting access to the encryption key for the devices or messages;
• the very drawn out European Union negotiations over new data protection rules;
• the end of the Safe Harbor transatlantic agreement and ensuing debates over the new Privacy Shield;
• questions over the dangers surrounding connected/driverless cars, and the growing ubiquity of the IoT in general;
• the ad–blocking phenomenon;
• questions over what impact multiple FinTech solutions will have on the soundness of the banking system, and blockchain’s ability to replace today’s trusted third parties;
So trust is a focal point for telcos, cloud computing companies, Internet giants, start–ups, governments and regulators, but also for every economic sector across the board, not to mention consumers and citizens.
And, as always, acknowledging risk must not prevent us from also analysing opportunities, in terms of innovation, differentiation strategies and the competitive advantages available to many market players.
Once again this year, the vital meeting place that this international conference has become, will include plenary sessions that will provide a springboard for a series of high–level specialty forums. These forums are an opportunity to delve deeper into the main trends we expect to see in mobile networks with the advent of 5G, ultrafast broadband, the Internet of Things, the TV market’s transformation in Europe, FinTech, video games, the digital promise in Africa and what makes a smart city.
A unique international forum for debate and networking
|> DigiWorld Week
A week devoted to understanding what makes our new digital world tick (12 – 20 November 2016)
|> The DigiWorld Awards
Recognising the best digital start-ups created by French entrepreneurs abroad
Key facts & figures
Europe’s trailblazing conference on the digital economy
The DigiWorld Summit is an annual event organised and hosted by IDATE experts, with the support of DigiWorld Institute members. Every year it holds ultra high-level international debates on the core issues shaping the digital economy, with the finest speakers and industry insiders.
• Participants: 1,200 participants at the DigiWorld Summit and more than 5,000 at DigiWorld Week
• Speakers: 120 speakers from around the world; 400 at DigiWorld Week
• Partners and sponsors: over 100 partners and sponsors (businesses, public sector, media…)
• Social media: 15,000 tweets (trending topics) and 2,000 live followers
For more information, visit our website: www.digiworldsummit.com
Hao Yi Emerging technologies expert, IDATE DigiWorld
The development of the mobile payment market was still heterogeneous in 2015.
The m-commerce payment market grew steadily, whereas the in-store mobile payment market remained nascent given the transaction volume, although the release of Apple Pay one year earlier had seemingly put an end to the doubts about near field communication (NFC) being the right technology for in-store proximity payment.
IDATE DigiWorld estimates that the worldwide m-commerce market revenue will likely grow from 2015 to 2019 at a CAGR of 26.5%, growing its share 26% of the overall value of the e-commerce market to 44.2%. As regards the arrival of in-store mobile payments with NFC technology, QR code, mobile wallets, mobile point-of-sale (mPOS) solutions and other mobile payment methods, IDATE DigiWorld values their transaction volume to grow at a CAGR of 74% between 2015 and 2019. The volume of in-store mobile payments is tiny compared to the trillions of USD of all point-of-sale (POS) transactions.
On the in-store payment market, no one has really ‘wined out’ as yet, although Internet giants (Apple, Google and Samsung) as well as card networks (Visa and MasterCard) are very active, and numerous new entrants are flooding in.
In addition, NFC payment working with mobile wallets did not see the expected explosion in volume. Even though the technology and NFC-enabled POS terminals have been progressively in place for many years, the perceived value of such services is low for consumers.
From the perspective of merchants, mobile payment alone is not enough to bring about mass adoption.
Find out more about this market in our dedicated report
Lead IoT expert at IDATE DigiWorld
We can already observe the integration of IoT technologies in industry assets – which is commonly called smart factory – and emerging use cases, reducing costs and increasing productivity strikingly.
In our latest study we propose an analysis of the heterogeneous industrial landscape on three major axes: Infrastructure (Industry assets), Offering (innovative products accompanied by related services) and Relation with customers.
Industrial Internet is gaining momentum, but still needs several years for larger adoption and especially for an establishment of common standards – today several technologies and concepts coexist and only the fittest will survive when market maturity is reached.
The industrial infrastructure of industrial assets will be optimised through the development of the smart factory concept by implementing new manufacturing practices that take advantage of ICT innovations. This aims to go beyond the introduction of new technologies in the production process. The core principle is the increase in connections and integration of the different ICT-enabled components in a single networked system. The developments of the smart factory result in gains in production costs as defects are eliminated and automation reduces the intensity of human resources in production tasks. Value thus shifts to research and development and design tasks on the one hand, and to after-sales services on the other hand. These shifts impact players, enabling the development of smaller-scale units focusing on the design and engineering of products on the one hand, and the emergence of platforms and ecosystems on the other. Adoption is still limited as we are but in the early years of the smart factory. Major industries now adopting the smart factory encompass aeronautics, automotive and consumer electronics. Energy and transportation are also deploying IoT solutions along their distribution network architecture.
The Industrial Internet (IIoT) is also considered as a way to improve the appeal of core products by providing more services associated with machines rather than expecting new revenues. As a consequence, vertical players are tending to lower their expectations for data monetisation, focusing essentially on using data for process optimisation mainly, bringing more value to their core products. This is even more true for very expensive machines (aircraft, heavy equipment). However, some industries like automotive still aim to generate additional recurring service-based revenues over time through additional interactions (rather than standalone product sales with renewal several years later). They are pushing their subscription-based services, even though the real adoption is still under interrogation (even for premium manufacturers).
In addition, servicisation is also used to increase customer loyalty, where the traditional product purchase (transaction relationship) is being transformed into a recurrent relationship between suppliers and clients. Moreover, new innovative and disruptive pricing models will be introduced, with the example of tyre manufacturers which sell services (on a per-km basis through Tyre-As-A-Service) for professional fleet managers.
Data will play an important and central role in the future as many players aim to leverage the data collected from the connected objects, chiefly for business reasons. There are still questions around the real monetisation of the data as it is based on the ownership of the data itself and its related control. Early initiatives show data use for internal use, circumventing data privacy issues. To build data-managing platforms, the biggest industry players are tending to develop their own digital solutions. For smaller players, data will likely be exploited by third parties, as they lack the appropriate technical expertise and capacity to combine with other data.
The market of the Industrial Internet will be driven by the enabling technologies (LPWA and big data chiefly) which provide disruptive features. Moreover, different national and international initiatives such as Industry 4.0 or the Industrial Internet Consortium (IIC) support the development of these new technologies led by the automation and engineering industry giants.
However, in addition to doubts around data monetisation, the market is also facing such barriers as security and reliability concerns, interoperability issues and potential societal impact on workforce training and employment. Furthermore, this is leading industrial giants to have their own data-oriented department and they are required to acquire new skills and expertise around data – a process which also takes time.
Get more insights on infrastructure, products and services, customer relationship related to Industrial Internet as well as an analysis of the value chain, possible monetization of data and general drivers and hurdles.
Senior Consultant, IDATE DigiWorld
This market is considered one of the most promising in the Internet of Things sector with a number of connected things could climb from 200 to 900 million between 2015 and 2025.
The concept of the smart home can be understood as home automation for the Internet era, but it is a concept that has not yet really caught on.
It encompasses all of the machines in the home that could potentially be connected to the Web. It also includes a wide array of applications, from consumer electronics to home appliances, by way of light bulbs and presence sensors. Today’s market is focused mainly on selling hardware with a built-in connectivity module and which can be controlled remotely using a mobile app. But it now also includes hubs, i.e. central systems that allow the different devices to talk to each other.
Many of the currently available products are connected to managing energy consumption and personal security, as consumers are more inclined to invest in solutions that allow them to lower their electrical bill and/or feel safer in their own home.
A large and heavily populated ecosystem
The digital home ecosystem is vast, populated by a multitude of players from a wide range of industries, including veteran CE and appliance manufacturers, along with power companies and players from the lighting and security industries. Samsung is particularly active in this market, especially since it acquired the start-up SmartThings in 2004. The South Korean giant is selling a complete smart home solution, including a hub to which both the manufacturers’ and its competitors’ equipment can be connected. Philips also has a solid presence in the smart home market thanks to its Hue line of smart bulbs.
The marketplace is also populated by newcomers such as pure players specialised in connected devices – marketing smart thermostats, light bulbs and security cameras. Telcos too have joined the fray, taking advantage
of their modems already deployed in customers’ homes to roll out new initiatives. The Internet giants are also on hand: Google through its acquisition of Nest, a start-up that specialises in smart thermostats, and Apple with its HomeKit smart home development platform.
An ecosystem awash with solution providers means that there are multiple communication protocols at work. The current battle for supremacy between standards is pitting a number of initiatives backed by industry giants against one another.
Adoption of the smart home raises severalquestions
This market, fl edgling as it is, is considered one of the most promising in the Internet of Things sector. IDATE estimates that the number of connected things could climb from 200 to 900 million between 2015 and 2025. Most of the market’s revenue today comes from hardware sales, whose prices are still too high compared to virtually identical products without smart capabilities. Several issues, then, need to be resolved before the market can really take off: the price of connected devices and appliances, privacy concerns raised by the use of personal data, a business model that needs clarifying (including monetising data) and the fragmentation of core technologies.
Discover the perspectives, key trends, and scenarios about the Internet and Smart Living market for the next decade through our dedicated report.
Florence Le Borgne
Head of the TV & Digital Content Practice, IDATE DigiWorld
Generally speaking, the arrival of Netflix in a new market results in increased programming costs for its competitors.
Using North America as an example, this trend is expected to continue and grow in the coming years, which will question the profitability of such investments.
There are generally three types of pay video-on-demand (VOD) services:
• TVOD (Transactional Video-On-Demand) services, which include:
• EST (Electronic Sell-Through), also known as DTO or 'Download To Own', is like the traditional sale of physical videograms, but in digital form.
• DTR (Download To Rent) is like the traditional rental of videograms, but in digital form.
• SVOD (Subscription Video-On-Demand) services, which are based on the dominant pricing model used for linear pay-TV: subscriptions
It is common for the same service to offer several pricing models.
Business models and service positioning
The transactional video-on-demand model is based on revenue sharing between the service provider and the rights holders. Contracts between these two parties can be exclusive, but rarely so. The catalogues of transactional video-on-demand services are usually very large (from 10,000 to hundreds of thousands). Although most TVOD services are non-specialised, consumption is mainly focused on movies.
The business model of SVOD is similar to that of pay-TV. Content rights are purchased at fixed price, regardless of actual consumption. The rights may be exclusive for a given period of time and territory. SVOD catalogues have tended to be available for unlimited consumption so far, including many non-exclusive and older titles (over 5 years old). Although most SVOD offerings are non-specialised, fiction series tend to be promoted and consumed the most. Original and exclusive new content is increasingly used for differentiation. There are currently two contrasting marketing strategies used: strategies based on a volume/cost ratio; and differentiation strategies based on premium or special interest positioning.
The VOD sector as a whole is witnessing strong growth in Europe, driven by a large increase in the number of services emerging in most countries. Between February 2012 and December 2015, the number of services available in the EU increased by a factor of 5.7 on average.
Although the market share in value terms is still dominated by DTR in Europe (56.5% of the total VOD market), this market segment has been the slowest growing segment over the last five years (+215% on average in EU countries between 2010 and 2015). Revenues from subscription services are experiencing stronger growth: a growth rate of 1,824% over the same period. They generated nearly one-third of VOD revenues in Europe in 2015, whereas they only accounted for 7.6% in 2010.
The true start of the SVOD market in a particular country is often whenever Netflix launches there. Note that Netflix is often the main beneficiary of the rapid growth in subscribers that its launch creates. The arrival of the North American giant does, however, trigger a response from the main players in FTA television and pay-TV. It is the combination of all these elements that contributes to better awareness of these services among the general public and facilitates their adoption.
The growth and success of video-on-demand services can be very different depending on the market. There are various internal factors:
• the propensity for local consumers to pay for access to content;
• the price differential with local pay-TV offerings;
• the prevalence of piracy of audiovisual and cinematic content;
Find out more about the various internal factors
Various issues specific to the structure of on-demand services and players' strategies also play a role:
• the relevance of the marketing positioning of the services;
• the existence of partnerships with distributors who already have a subscriber/equipment base;
• the effectiveness of recommendation systems, which help increase consumption and provide a better user experience;
More information about these issues
Profitability conditions and the challenge facing Europe
The issue of achieving profitability with transactional services is not as critical as for subscription services. Because most transactional service costs are variable costs, proportional to consumption, these services are not expensive to create and only become so when the content is actually consumed.
Therefore, there are no real obstacles to creating new services and the costs of entry into the market are low. This explains the abundance of existing services and the great diversity of players in this segment.
The economy for SVOD services is more delicate: as well as technical and marketing costs, content acquisition costs can be regarded as fixed costs because the content is purchased at a fixed price, regardless of consumption. To that can be added costs related to development or acquisition of a recommendation tool. Subscription services therefore have significant costs even before they have started to recruit subscribers.
If the European industry cannot create some European champions of their own to compete with the US giants, many European players may disappear as the market rationalises.
For the publication of the 16th edition of the DigiWorld Yearbook (pre-order now), IDATE is organizing a conference based on the detailed analysis of the current situations and some forecasts by IDATE experts on the major digital sectors, the discussion will deal with the great trends and challenges that will disrupt the digital markets by 2025.