15Apr/140

Premium content: Sport, cinema, fiction TV

Florence Le Borgne-Bachschmidt

 

Florence Le Borgne
Head of the TV & Digital content Practice, IDATE.

 

What potential exists for “everything OTT” distribution?

IDATE’s latest report spotlights premium content right holders’ strategies to tap the new internet territories. It provides a benchmark of OTT services launched by major rightholders. The study also provides the analyses and conclusions on these OTT strategies in highlighting their drivers and hurdles: technology, regulation, consumption patterns. Finally, it addresses the question of viability of an exclusive OTT strategy for Sport, Cinema & TV series right holders.

There is not a lot of audiovisual content that can be designated as 'premium'. Only fiction (films and TV series) and certain sporting events (depending on the country) meet the conditions necessary to merit the description: mass appeal, a certain rarity and desirable enough that consumers will pay for it.

Broadcast by a small number of providers (the importance of rights and the relative scarcity of premium content automatically limits the number of possible candidates), premium content belongs to a variety of players, such as in cinema where production is distributed among a large number of smaller players, although a few big US studios produce a large part of the sector's revenue.
The clear lines drawn with rights (by territory, time, medium) aims to maximize the potential value of the content and thus the revenues generated by the rights holders. Although television contributes significantly to revenues generated by film studios and sports leagues (about 20% on average), its contribution varies significantly depending on the country, the licensing fee model in place and the attractiveness of the content itself.

Florence Le Borgne, Head of Study, notes: “OTT-specific services present an obvious opportunity to premium content rights holders: to add value to content that has little or no exposure on television, to generate additional revenue, and to put pressure on traditional distributors and thus 'raise the stakes'.

Premium content distribution value chain and breakdown of value by player according to distribution type :

Premium-content-distribution-value-chai-and-breakdown-of-value-by-player-according-to-distribution-type

 

Source: IDATE, Rightholders turn OTT, April 2014

 

However, the approaches taken so far have differed considerably:
•    Release windows, either regulatory or contractual, limit opportunities for fiction rights holders to embark on an aggressive OTT strategy, which would probably compete directly with traditional distributors who provide the bulk of their revenues (cinemas, DVD publishers, TV channels). The biggest studios are adopting conservative approaches, working within the constraints and characteristics of specific geographical markets. Independent publishers favour OTT distribution via existing platforms, due to a lack of financial resources to distribute online content themselves.
•    Leagues and sports federations, who are not subject to the same constraints, have invested significantly in the internet to generate more value from redistribution rights of their events, either via a third-party operated platform for sports with little media coverage, or direct distribution for major sports. However, leagues and federations are adopting differentiated strategies per country to favour TV coverage across the board: the more their sport is televised, the less choice offered by proprietary OTT services. Note that the European football leagues focus solely on the sale of TV rights.

As direct distribution via the internet results in disintermediation for some of the players involved in the traditional distribution chain, rights holders could theoretically expect to capture a much larger share of the end market (up to 92% of the value with direct distribution compared with 28% in the current model). However, to date, traditional distribution is still more profitable because revenues from the TV end market are so large and no player has yet exclusively distributed its most premium content. However, models have shown that, for some sports leagues, moving to 'everything OTT' would be a viable option and would generate the same revenues as those of current TV rights.

Apart from the financial risk of moving to 'everything OTT' for rights holders and the lack of internal expertise in broadcasting video services, several obstacles can be identified:
•    limited access to broadband internet in some markets as well as the number of active compatible devices (especially connected TVs with large screens)
•    regulations that favour traditional distribution in some countries, especially regulated release windows
•    the high level of dependence that could involve reintermediation with a dominant web platform
•    the potential unwillingness of users to subscribe to every sport followed on an individual billing basis rather than a household package.

Also, in the current context, only some sporting content would be a realistic candidate for migration from a rights holder's perspective (but not TV channels). OTT distribution of fiction would entail a profound upheaval which the various players in the value chain seem unwilling to accept.

The potential for migrating to ‘everything OTT’ for some sports leagues:

The potential for migrating to ‘everything OTT’ for some sports leagues:
Source: IDATE, Rightholders turn OTT, April 2014

If you want to buy the  study "Rightholders turn OTT".

27Mar/140

VDSL2 – G.Fast – FTTdp: Copper gets turbocharged

CHAILLOU_Valérie
 
 
Valérie CHAILLOU
Head of Research, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE
 
 

Telcos have ambitious Vectoring rollout plans, with some aiming to have between 25% and 30% of VDSL2 lines covered by 2017.

Vectoring and bonding are starting to be deployed in certain countries, even if the technical and regulatory constraints would seem to point to only small-scale rollouts. G.Fast is the next generation standard being examined today. The report we released provides readers with an update on the latest technological developments in VDSL2.

VDSL2 & Co: ever more promising technological developments

VDSL2 has begun to be implemented, and several telcos have based their ultra-fast broadband strategies squarely on copper infrastructure right up to the customer premises. If VDSL can deliver theoretical speeds of around 50 Mbps near the exchange or cabinet, Vectoring, which consists of reducing noise among the lines, makes it possible to double that speed to 100 Mbps. Bonding, meanwhile, consists of using several copper pairs, either to double speeds for users in the vicinity of the exchange, or double the distance at which a 50 Mbps connection is available. In both cases, however, performances are very quickly affected by the subscriber’s distance from the exchange or cabinet.
G.Fast, which is the future standard currently under examination, and due to be approved in
2014, offers a theoretical speed of 1 Gbps, but noise cancellation capabilities are even stronger.

Growth of VDSL subscribers worldwide between December 2010 and June 2013 (million)

Growth of VDSL subscribers worldwide between December 2010 and June 2013 (million)

Source: IDATE

Still only small-scale implementation of VDSL2 and its successors

In mid-2013, customers subscribing to a VDSL2 ultra-fast broadband service represented 19% of the world’s FTTH/B subscribers. The vast majority of deployments have been performed by AT&T in the United States, which is reporting 26 million VDSL2-ready households and more than 9 million subscribers. AT&T continues to bank on these solutions, and is now offering pair bonding to eligible customers.
Western Europe is the second biggest VDSL market, accounting for 35% of the world’s subscribers as of mid-2013.

Will this drive a shift in the ultra-fast broadband market?

VDSL2 and its successors have a clear set of advantages, starting with savings on rollouts. Telcos would not need to deploy optical fiber from end to end, and can use the existing last mile of their networks. They would also save on customer premises installations, which cost them a great deal of time and money.
The performances offered by these new solutions appear to be coming more and more in line with those delivered by FTTH (at least in its current iteration), but only under optimal conditions. So this is not a solution that can be made available to everyone. Plus, VDSL Vectoring does not enable physical sub-loop unbundling, in which case bitstream remains the only option for sharing access to the network – something that not all market players want, as is the case in France, for instance.

As a result, even if the development prospects for the VDSL market remain optimistic for the coming years, we do not expect it to cause a major upheaval in the ultra-fast broadband hierarchy, with FTTH/B continuing to be the architecture of choice.

13Feb/140

Edito by Yves Gassot

GASSOT Yves
 
Yves Gassot

CEO, IDATE


Round-up for 2014

It’s hard, in the first editorial of the year, to avoid laying out the overriding themes that we expect to see play out over the next twelve months. But it is still too early for me to deliver a complete summary of the year gone by, which has become the much-anticipated task of our DigiWorld Yearbook.
You will also need to wait until the next Executive Note to find out the central topic selected for this year’s DigiWorld Summit (but you can already mark your calendars for November 18, 19 and 20).

What I can share with you, however, is our belief in the profound relevance of certain issues, by summarising three topics that we have chosen to explore in this year’s Collaborative Research Programme (CRP 2014). These are think tanks open to existing IDATE member companies and those wanting to join, who will work for close to a year with a dedicated team of our analysts on the following subjects:

Telecoms USA: model or counter-model?

Following thorough on the two projects carried out in Brussels in 2012 and 2013 on telcos’ new business models, and the new European policy options being considered, we will work to deepen our understanding of the specific points that explain the different directions being taken on either side of the Atlantic.

The internet of things: will everything be connected?

We are going to analyse the true potential of the internet of things, by taking account of the developments that need to occur in the technical environment, difficulties in generating income from both consumer objects and industry applications and, finally, governance and personal data ownership issues, with tie-ins to our 2013 think tank on personal data

What will tomorrow’s TV and video networks look like?

Here we are building on the 2013 Video as a Service think tank by exploring issues surrounding the future of television and video distribution networks, and by analysing long-term scenarios for the delivery of TV and video products, taking particular account of the cooperation and convergence between networks, i.e. hybridisation involving both fixed and cellular networks

Other topics may be added to the CRP. For instance, we are contemplating an ambitious project that aims to define what could be a comprehensive, metropolitan area-scale digital investment strategy, going beyond marketing clichés and segmented vertical approaches.

I can also tell you that the next issue of Communications & Strategies (DigiWorld Economic journal) will be published in March, and is shaping up to be a promising one. It will be devoted to scoring Europe’s telecommunications sector, and examining potentially clashing policies.
And, finally, a reminder that the best way to delve into the subjects that are consuming our teams is though the reports that we publish every month as part of our annual Market Research programme.

4Feb/144

Print media in the digital era: analogue dimes and digital cents

Gilles Fontaine
Gilles FONTAINE

Deputy Managing Director
Director of TV & Digital Content Business Unit

 

Let’s begin with a few figures that give an idea of the beating that print media, and especially news publications, are taking. Print media’s global advertising revenue decreased by 40% between 2007 and 2001, which represents a loss of $52 billion in revenue. The news for single issue sales and subscriptions is less dramatic. Print media sales revenue actually increased slightly in the United States in 2012, but this was not the case in all corners of the globe.

The readers of print publications are not a thinning herd. But, as publications take to the web, this readership is becoming more volatile. Once daily readers of print newspapers now read the online version less often and more briefly. Less often because there is such a plethora of information available on the internet, and more briefly because sites with a great deal of video content generate longer visits than text-centric ones. As a result, papers’ share of the news delivery market continues to shrink. In 1991, in response to the question, “How did you get your news yesterday?” 56% of Americans answered, “from the newspaper”. This percentage has dropped to 33% today, while 39% cite the internet as their main source of news.

Digital readership growing, but still not solving the monetisation problem

Although print media publications are losing their share of the news delivery market, they do have a sizeable share of the online news market. Reader numbers for some papers have actually increased if we combine print and online figures. What remains, however, is to monetise their digital readership through ad revenue. The adage “analogue dimes and digital cents” applies perfectly here: internet users generate much less ad revenue than print readers do. Little time spent on the site, combined with stiffer competition on the web which cuts into ad rates, are the two main culprits for the automatic loss of ad revenue.

Moreover, traditional ad agency/broker techniques are being threatened by fact that advertisers are spending less on traditional mass media ads – which deliver a single message to all readers or viewers, well ahead of the sales transaction, and involving a relatively small number of companies – and more on the internet and its targeted adverts, its direct link to sales and large number of advertisers. Achieving a critical mass of qualified leads requires reaching beyond one’s own medium, while adopting advanced, live ad space auction technologies and processing masses of reader data require a tremendous overhaul in publications’ expertise, and possibly the creation of an in-house ad brokerage. In other words, newspapers lack the critical mass to take on the top online ad brokers. Some are working to remedy this by joining forces with other media (TV, radio) and pooling their audiences, one case in point being La Place Media in France.

Regardless of print media’s ability to monetise their online audience with advertisers, the fully ad-funded model does not seem tenable. Continuing to opt for an essentially free model therefore requires that traffic be monetised, not only through advertising but also through services. Print media, and especially the regional press, always provided various services, starting with classified ads – a market that it has lost almost entirely to online companies that do only that, once again due to a lack of critical mass, but also to their having taken a very defensive position. So print publications need to develop and distribute services that have a connection with the editorial content in their online publication, such as a price comparison engine for used cars for Automotive section readers, links to the online shops that sell the products mentioned in an article, etc.

Can papers recreate their paid model on the internet?

Another possibility, which is not incompatible with the development of online services, consists of recreating the classic pay to read model. In addition to direct subscription revenue that the model generates, it also allows the publication to reforge closer ties with readers: an online subscriber will visit the paper’s website more often, will spend more time on it, and will have greater exposure to the services available to her. The question of how much to charge for online access is a tricky one: online subscriptions are cheaper than hard copies, due to the economies of scale enabled by electronic distribution, but also because competition on the internet is much more fierce. There is also the temptation to bundle a print and online subscription, to ease the transition from one to the other, but at the risk of undercutting the value of the digital edition which is sold very cheaply, used as a lost leader to secure subscriber loyalty.

But the main problem facing newspapers today is probably an only indirectly a financial one: having to contend with a dramatic drop in revenue, publications have implemented cost-cutting programmes which, after overhead, are now targeting the production of their raw material: news. A new generation of journalists is emerging on the web, more specialised in (re)processing and regurgitating news than in analysing it, a generation that is capable adapting to the new fragmented patterns of online reading. The danger for newspapers lies in turning away from the production of original news and opinion pieces, and opting instead to aggregate news provided by a range of other sources. This would only lump them in with their main competitors, i.e. the top online news aggregators. Which is why some papers have adopted the opposite strategy, namely devoting the bulk of their resources to producing exclusive content, which will prove a huge asset if newspapers were to be completely cut out of the equation by online players.

Growth of print media ad revenue in the United States (mUS$)

Evolution of print media ad revenue in USA, online and offline advertising

Source: Newpaper Association of America
4Feb/140

Sorry, but this post is not available in English

14Jan/140

M2M: market finally taking off

ROPERT Samuel

 

Samuel ROPERT
Lead Analyst, IDATE

 

M2M is enjoying swift growth of roughly 30% in volume and over 10% in revenue, with the market to reach €40 billion in 2017

The 6th edition of IDATE’s M2M Market report, covering 2013-2017, reveals that a healthy growth rate has finally taken hold in this promising but, up until recently, underperforming market. This performance is being spurred by increased use within the main areas of application (automotive, consumer electronics and utilities) and is expected to accelerate even further over the next five years as M2M spreads to other sectors of activity.

The M2M market (Reported devoted to M2M applications, excluding satellite M2M) represented 175 million modules worldwide in 2013, generating €24.2 billion in revenue, which translates in to an annual growth rate of 31% in volume and 11% in revenue. The bulk of revenue was generated by software and IT developments which together accounted for two-thirds of total market value.

IDATE forecasts that global M2M market volume will grow by an average of close to 30% annually between now and 2017, which corresponds to 470 million modules, while market revenue will climb by 13% a year on average, to reach €40 billion.

Europe will be the biggest market in terms of revenue, ahead of North America, even if Asia-Pacific will continue to dominate in terms of volume. At the end of 2013, China rose to the number one spot in number of cellular M2M modules installed, overtaking the United States.

World M2M cellular market, 2013-2017

Million of modules                                         Revenues (billion EUR)
M2M cellular market

Source: IDATE, December 2013

Over the next few years, the M2M market’s growth will be shaped by three key verticals: automotive, consumer electronics and utilities

While they will theoretically drive the market, certain barriers could nevertheless obstruct their growth. Several long-awaited applications in these key markets have been repeatedly delayed, such as Europe’s eCall regulation and large-scale rollouts by utilities. Added to which certain technical choices can have a tremendous impact on the market, a good example being smart meters connected to the cellular network through a concentrator that would allow large utility companies to further increase their already massive negotiating clout to drive down per-unit prices. But utilities will dominate the M2M market in 2017 in terms of module numbers, all technologies combined. The rise of M2M in consumer electronics will have a major impact on the market as a whole, especially on the number of active modules. Because it is a de facto mass market, consumer electronics will represent the largest number of modules, all technologies combined.

M2M players seeking business opportunity beyond their core expertise

The market offers M2M application providers with very attractive opportunities, despite the already relatively low and declining average revenue per user (ARPU). The projects have a long lifespan, very low churn rates and average contracts representing several thousand SIM cards. Connectivity alone is expected to represent €10 billion worldwide in 2017, and more than 3% of European telcos’ mobile data revenue. MVNOs are being pushed out of the market and so repositioning themselves as platform providers, while module providers will have to adapt to a market where unit prices are in free fall. Meanwhile, the top telcos are exploring new cloud and big data services that would allow them to find solid and sustainable new business opportunities.

This comprehensive M2M report will be followed up over the coming months with other reports with a specific end use or vertical focus. For example, just after Mobile World Congress, there will be a very topical report on connected cars.

8Jan/141

Big Data for Telcos

Julien Gaudemer

 

Julien GAUDEMER

Consultant at IDATE

 

How big data can get new revenue
and reduce costs?

Telcos are now in a position to use their data assets to generate value. Through big data techniques, ‘data services’ can generate new revenue or can help telcos to enhance their internal processes and core businesses, as stated previously. Not all data services are efficient for telco businesses, each service having varying efficiency.

Potential benefits of big data applications for telcos in terms of new revenues and potential savings, based on telco revenues and costs in 2012

Big data applications for telcos

Source: IDATE, market report "Big Data for Telcos", publication date Dec. 2013
N.B.: APIs are not included in this table as they are not a real big data application but an enabler for customers.

Internal purpose services

Internal purpose services aim at improving internal operations as well as enhancing customer relationships and products. Most of them use internal data (customer anonymised data or network data) with processing done internally: personal data protection is therefore as important as it is for external purposes and there are no questions of business model or competition. These services are thus easier to roll out and implement than external purpose services (with operations outside the company).

Optimisation of network and real-time DPI

The main benefit of the optimisation of network platforms and real-time DPI is material and financial. Such a service can lead to rationalisation and optimisation of current network infrastructures in the short term, and a more efficient use of the equipment in the long term.
On the financial side, a small reduction in capex by just a few percentage points can be generated immediately thanks to optimisation. It will especially lead to a shift of capex in the long term as investments will be made later. However, a few percent of capex is actually significant for a telco as it can represent several million euros each year. The ROI for optimisation systems can be, however, be significant.

Improvement of products

Big data techniques to improve products are aimed at increasing customer satisfaction (indirectly reducing churn) and attracting new customers. The main consequence of such benefits can be increased turnover due to new customers or a reduced churn rate.
A small increase of ARPU can also be expected in the short term as new products can attract existing customers and generate additional sales. These new products can also provide a competitive advantage to the telco in the short term.

CRM and Sales

The main goal of data services related to CRM and sales improvement is to generate new sales, and especially up-selling and cross-selling. It can increase revenues moderately, in the long term.
In addition, these services can bring a better knowledge of customers and can therefore increase customer satisfaction to a decent degree, reducing churn indirectly and maintaining revenues in the long term. The subscriber acquisition costs (SAC) can also be reduced in the long term as these techniques improve the customer acquisition process.

Churn prevention

In addition to previous data services helping to reduce churn, specific churn prevention techniques using data exist. Churn is, in any case, an important for telcos in a very competitive environment. Churn reduction leads to revenue stability and can avoid massive migration of customers in the case of new attractive plans from competitors.
These new tools can thus lead to a reduction of subscriber retention costs (SRC) in the long term, but with an increase in the short term to implement the churn prevention platform.

Fraud detection

Fraud detection is an important stake for telcos as fraud represents an important cost. Systems to detect fraud are therefore crucial for telcos and are a profitable investment in the long term. Fraud detection can thus lead to sensible reduction of fraud cost and losses.

External purpose services

Services provided by telcos to third parties can generate new revenue from data sold to these parties, or through services based on internal data analysis.
Contrary to internal purpose services, external services have to be analysed in their competitive environment and in their specific market. Each service has multiple ‘external’ constraints, more or less important, depending on the market and the environment.

Insights

The market for ‘insight’ services is relatively new, having started at the end of 2012. It is thus small and telcos can have a strong position as they own geolocation data from their mobile subscribers. If only a few telcos currently provide such services, others could join the market in the years ahead. Large OTT players would also be able to provide insights with their own data, but their data seems to be less accurate.
Improvements from new techniques such as real-time analysis (currently available) can bring value to insights but a lot of technical and privacy issues remain. Partnerships with other telcos seem to be not essential as a telco can, for instance, define the number of individuals on an area extrapolating the number of subscribers in this area. However, a partnership with other such players as pure players from the survey market could bring value to such services.
However, the growth potential of this market remains limited as potential customers seem to be limited as well. Such services are not well known at this time, and telcos should communicate more about their benefits, to attract more customers.

Audience measurement

The audience measurement market is not a new one, as some players have been active in the TV audience measurement segment for a long time, followed by Internet website audiences and, to a lesser extent, in mobile application audiences. Telcos have introduced this market to measure mobile audience (for both applications and Websites), as they have a closer presence of mobile devices.
On the mobile segment, OTT players cannot really compete with telcos. The major OTT players on this market are Nielsen and comScore. Thus, to invest in other market segments, and especially those related to the Web, telcos should make partnerships with such players as they both have value to add in a common service.
In the end, the potential growth of this market is significant as the mobile measurement market segment should grow over time, with growing mobile uses.

Raw data sales

This market is still small as few initiatives exist at present. It is mainly composed of partnerships between telcos and other players interested in telco data and especially on very location-specific data.
Such a service is therefore based a discussion between the customer and the telco to define the kind of raw data to provide, and how to exchange it. The process is not automated. An automated system would consist in providing APIs sending the same data for all customers, or insight services with the same result of analysis for all customers.
In terms of competition, telcos are not the only players to provide such data as OTTs can provide it too. However, both face privacy issues as consumers are increasingly afraid of sharing their personal data with third parties.

Ad networks

The advertising market is very large and generates important revenue. Its growth is also very important as advertising is the core of many business models. Competition is very high.
In this environment, telcos can push specific strengths allowing them to get a competitive advantage, namely the data they can use to provide efficient targeted advertising.
However, the share of telcos on the mobile advertising market remains low – IDATE estimates this share at about 8% of the mobile ad market. Partnerships with other telcos or other players would be interesting in order to obtain a larger share of the cake and to reach another target.

Recommendations

The recommendations market is still small and mainly held by such OTT players as Facebook and Google. Their advantage is in providing service through their environment: a social network or even an operating system gathering data on customer habits.
Telcos also have strengths in providing recommendations: location data as well as other declarative data can be used here. This may, though, not be enough to compete with OTT players with their multiple diffusion channels for their recommendations. Recommendations would be thus of limited value for telcos.

APIs

The API market is quite specific as it does not generate substantial revenue and is heavily segmented. In addition, APIs cannot be really considered as big data applications. They are mentioned here as an important tool for telcos to share internal data.
The only API currently generating revenue is carrier billing as telcos get a share of the transaction amount. This market is thus very small in value, yet significant in the volume of data exchanged.
In terms of competition, APIs provide specific data that depend on each provider. Carrier-billing APIs are proper to telcos. User profiles are usually provided by social networks, but can be also be provided by telcos, as with Orange. In this specific market segment, telcos compete directly with some large OTT players, but only in terms of the kind of data and not in terms of potential revenue.
Alliances of telcos can bring practical benefits in order to reach a larger share of population worldwide, and in order for developers to develop API connections with only a few players (and not with each telco).

Conclusions on big data services for telcos

Of these big data services, some help to reduce costs whereas others can generate new revenues directly or indirectly. They do not, though, provide the same ‘potential’ benefits in that the final benefits may differ between implementations. The figure below provides an overview of the potential benefits of each service or application in terms of new revenues and savings. These figures are estimations of the potential impact for the global retail telecom market, for a full year. It gives an overview of the benefits of each kind of application.

More information on Big data for Telcos

IDATE delivers its analyses and conclusions on Big Data in its recently published market report "Big Data for Telcos". Our experts spotlighted the different opportunities for telcos and examined the drivers and hurdles of a massive use of Big Data.

27Nov/13Off

[CR] Game Summit – DigiWorld Summit

DigiWorld Summit 2013 - The digital gold mines

Audrey GREL
Consultant at IDATE

Marché du jeu vidéo: tendances et enjeux

Selon l'IDATE, le marché mondial du jeu vidéo (marché des équipements compris) passera de 53.9 milliards EUR en 2013 à 82.1 milliards EUR en 2017 (+11.1% en moyenne par an). Deux raisons expliquent cette dynamique :

• début des cycles de vie des dernières générations de consoles portables et de consoles de salon;

• progression remarquable des segments de jeux sur terminaux nomades et de jeux en ligne.

La Game Summit Conference 2013, qui s'est tenue le 21 novembre dernier à Montpellier, a permis de dessiner les différentes tendances auxquelles devra faire face les différents segments de marché dans les prochaines années.

Retrouvez le programme et les intervenants du séminaire Game Summit Conference

Les consoles de salon dans la tourmente

L'IDATE estime que la nouvelle génération de consoles devrait connaître un rythme de croissance moins important que celui observé pour la précédente génération. Les consoles subissent en effet une concurrence de plus en plus vive issue des segments du jeu nomade et du jeu en ligne.

Évolution du marché des consoles de salon, 2001-2017 (millions EUR)

Source : IDATE d’après Industrie - Etude multiclients "Marché mondial du jeu vidéo" – Novembre 2013

Les consoles de salon font aujourd'hui face à des défis de taille pour s'adapter aux nouveaux usages des joueurs:

Financer davantage de jeux indépendants: La situation actuelle du jeu sur consoles de salon est comparable à celle que connut l'industrie du cinéma dans les années 80. Ce fut l'époque où le cinéma indépendant commença à s'imposer sur le marché face aux grands studios hollywoodiens, ces derniers n'ayant ainsi d'autre choix que de se lancer à leur tour dans la production de films indépendants. Pour Alexis JOLIS DESAUTELS, Game Director, Ubisoft Montréal, il est indispensable pour le jeu vidéo sur consoles de salon de financer davantage de jeux indépendants en sus des blockbusters, au risque de s'asphyxier.

Faire face à un environnement déflationniste: De par l'influence du segment du jeu sur mobile, les joueurs sont aujourd'hui familiarisés avec l'idée que les jeux vidéo peuvent être acquis gratuitement ou pour des sommes très peu élevées. Comment arriver dans cet environnement à ce que le consommateur perçoive la valeur d'un jeu AAA à 70 EUR? Il faut pour cela que les jeux sur consoles puissent durer en moyenne un an et demi. Il s'agit là d'un enjeu majeur de développement. "Challenge is how to create perceived value" (Alexis JOLIS DESAUTELS, Game Director, Ubisoft Montréal). Pour l'IDATE, le jeu sur consoles de salon doit également songer à faire évoluer son modèle économique pour se diriger vers le Free2Play.

Intégrer des composantes sociales: Le succès du jeu social montre l'intérêt des joueurs à jouer avec d'autres personnes. Aujourd'hui, 60% des joueurs jouent avec des personnes qu'ils connaissent. Il apparaît donc crucial aujourd'hui que les consoles de salon intègrent des composantes sociales.

Ne pas rester uniquement des appareils statiques sous le téléviseur: La prééminence des tablettes et des smartphones, le succès du jeu nomade, témoignent de l'intérêt des joueurs pour les appareils portables. Les joueurs veulent aujourd'hui payer pour quelque chose auquel ils peuvent accéder partout. Dans ce contexte, les consoles de salon doivent évoluer pour ne pas rester uniquement des appareils statiques sous le téléviseur. Pour l'IDATE, l'ubiquité offre là des perspectives intéressantes.

Enjeux économiques et technologiques des jeux ubiquitaires

Un jeu ubiquitaire offre la possibilité à un joueur de vivre une expérience ludique en continu sur plusieurs plateformes. Sur les différentes plateformes, les expériences peuvent être substituables ou complémentaires.

Caractéristiques des jeux ubiquitaires

Source : IDATE - 2013

Dans les jeux proposant des expériences substituables d'une plateforme à une autre, gameplay et business model sont répliqués à l'identique sur les différentes plateformes. La prochaine étape pour les éditeurs sera de les adapter aux spécificités de chaque plateforme ainsi qu'aux comportements des joueurs, qui s'avèrent différents d'une plateforme à une autre. Par exemple, Scimob, éditeur du jeu 94 secondes, a remarqué que les joueurs jouaient plus longtemps sur tablette que sur smartphone, et pense monétiser ce comportement en ajoutant un système d'attente sur tablette.

Dans les jeux ubiquitaires offrant des expériences complémentaires d'une plateforme à une autre, les applications "compagnon" peuvent être utilisées de manière synchrone ou asynchrone au jeu "principal". La synchronisation en temps réel laisse présager un fort potentiel ludique, néanmoins des progrès technologiques restent encore à faire afin de résoudre les problèmes de latence rencontrés aujourd'hui.

TV connectée et second écran: le potentiel du jeu vidéo comme outil d'engagement du téléspectateur dans les programmes audiovisuels

De plus en plus, les téléspectateurs utilisent un ou plusieurs écrans supplémentaires tout en regardant la télévision: ordinateurs, smartphones et tablettes, mais également liseuses numériques ou consoles de jeu. Que font-ils sur les seconds écrans? 53% effectuent des activités qui ne sont pas relatives aux programmes diffusés à la télévision: consultation de mails, recherche d'informations diverses, etc. Les 47% restants réalisent des tâches en relation directe avec le programme diffusé: recherche d'informations sur les acteurs, recherches d'informations relatives au programme, commentaires sur les réseaux sociaux, etc.

Part des téléspectateurs effectuant les activités considérées sur leur second écran

Source: The NPD Group, 2013

L'enjeu pour les chaînes de télévision est d'arriver à concevoir des interactions 2nd écran engageantes avec leurs programmes télévisuels, afin de préserver l'attention de leurs téléspectateurs et in fine leurs revenus publicitaires.

Selon Dean FOX, CEO, ScreenAngels, le jeu vidéo serait tout à fait à même de proposer ce type d'application: "Who can design and develop synchronized, multiscreen, interactive programming for TV and the second screen? We can". Il évoque à titre d'exemple le jeu Psychic Detective (EA), dans lequel le joueur doit mener une enquête policière. Associé à une série policière télévisuelle, ce type de jeu serait à même d'encourager le téléspectateur à suivre avec encore plus d'attention la série.

L'importance des analytics pour le développement des jeux en ligne et des jeux nomades

Dans le secteur du jeu en ligne et du jeu nomade, des outils spécifiques comme Flurry Analytics permettent de recueillir des statistiques sur le comportement des joueurs. Pour un éditeur/développeur, l'intérêt est de pouvoir comprendre le comportement des joueurs, de valider/corriger ses choix de développement rapidement ou encore de détecter les éventuelles frictions dans le jeu. Pour un éditeur/développeur, il est notamment intéressant de connaître: le comportement de l'ensemble des joueurs, exception faite de ceux nouvellement arrivés; le comportement des joueurs qui viennent de quitter le jeu et qui ne sont plus revenus; le comportement des joueurs-payeurs. Ainsi par ce biais, les joueurs font également partie du processus de développement d'un jeu.

DigiWorld Summit - du 19 au 21 Novembre 2013

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27Nov/13Off

[CR] NGN Funding – DigiWorld Summit 2013

DigiWorld Summit 2013 - The digital gold mines

Thomas CALDIRONI

Consultant at IDATE

Réseaux Très Haut Débit et intervention publique

Financement dréseaux Très Haut Débit - Articulation acteurs publics/privés

En France depuis 2004 et la loi pour la confiance dans l'économie numérique, mais aussi à l'étranger, l'intervention publique dans les réseaux Haut et Très Haut Débit est une réalité avec un impact direct sur l'aménagement numérique des territoires, mais également sur la création d'activités et d'emplois. Ces interventions publiques ont pris des formes différentes afin de permettre de garantir une bonne articulation entre investissements privés et intervention publique.

Retrouvez le programme et les intervenants du séminaire NGN Funding

L'intervention publique est évidemment incontournable pour aménager en très haut débit les territoires. Le THD par la seule action du marché, n'impacte que les zones denses et moyennement denses. Les zones moins denses et rurales sont délaissées par les opérateurs privés, légitimement vu l'absence de rentabilité, accentuant ainsi la "fracture numérique".

Le déploiement des réseaux à très haut débit est une véritable source de croissance pour l'ensemble de l'économie avec à la clé la création de plusieurs milliers d'emplois. En ce sens, les acteurs publics ne peuvent être absents de ces infrastructures qui sont essentielles pour le 21ième siècle au même titre que l'ont été les réseaux d'électricité ou de transport pour le 20ième siècle.

Il s'agit en effet d'abord d'emplois directs pour construire et exploiter ces réseaux, avec des emplois non délocalisables. Mais au-delà des emplois directs, il s'agit aussi d'emplois indirects, du fait de l'accroissement de compétitivité issu de ces réseaux et qui va bénéficier à l'ensemble des filières économiques et du fait aussi des nouveaux services et usages du numérique qui vont se développer.

perspectives THD en France by IDATE & FiRiP

Source :Synthèse de l’Observatoire des entreprises intervenant dans les Réseaux d’Initiative Publique (RIP) – Enquête FIRIP / IDATE

Les collectivités locales en France ont pris conscience des enjeux liés au THD pour leurs territoires. Les Schémas Directeurs Territoriaux d'Aménagement Numérique (SDTAN), portent désormais sur 98 départements, soit la quasi-totalité du territoire national. Ces SDTAN permettent une bonne articulation entre les déploiements privés ciblant les zones très denses ou moyennement denses et l'intervention publique centrée sur les zones peu denses.

Les faits

• L'intervention publique est indispensable pour le déploiement du Très Haut Débit ;
• Le déploiement de la fibre optique public et privé génère des emplois directs non délocalisables et des emplois indirects ;
• Le partenariat entre le public et le privé est nécessaire pour le développement du Très Haut Débit ;

Les citations

"Est-ce que le pari du Très Haut Débit ne vaut pas la peine d'être tenté ?" Pierre-Michel Attali, IDATE

• "Les RIP départementaux et régionaux ont permis le déploiement de 373 000 prises FTTH, le dégroupage de 828 000 prises ADSL, de raccorder en fibre optique 2 500 ZA, ainsi que de rendre raccordable en fibre optique 9 000 sites publics" Christophe Genter, Caisse des dépôts et Consignation

"Les RIP ont permis la création de 3 000 emplois directs, non délocalisables mais exportables. En 2012, les entreprises de la filière RIP ont généré un chiffre d'affaire de 1.1 milliards d'euros" Etienne Dugas, FIRIP

"La qualité du partenariat public / privé permet de faciliter le déploiement du FTTH sur l'ensemble des territoires" Rachid Adda, Conseil Général Val d'Oise

" Market operators continue to invest around 15 bn annually for fixed network roll-outs in Europe" Jussi Hatonen, European Investment Bank

"Le marché des RIP est très actif en France, mais pour assurer la réussite des RIP, il faut que les collectivités soient maître de leurs réseaux grâce notamment au lancement de services activés" David Elfassy, Altitude infrastructure

"La fibre optique est une infrastructure essentielle du 21ième siècle au même titre que l'électricité au 20ème siècle " Pierre-Eric Saint-André, Axione

"En France, plus de 300 000 foyers n'ont pas accès à internet : dès à présent, le satellite propose des solutions économiques, simples et performantes" Philippe Baudrier, Eutelsat

"Est-ce que le pari du Très Haut Débit ne vaut pas la peine d'être tenté ?" Pierre-Michel Attali, IDATE

"Les RIP départementaux et régionaux ont permis le déploiement de 373 000 prises FTTH, le dégroupage de 828 000 prises ADSL, de raccorder en fibre optique 2 500 ZA, ainsi que de rendre raccordable en fibre optique 9 000 sites publics" Christophe Genter, Caisse des dépôts et Consignation

"Les RIP ont permis la création de 3 000 emplois directs, non délocalisables mais exportables. En 2012, les entreprises de la filière RIP ont généré un chiffre d'affaire de 1.1 milliards d'euros" Etienne Dugas, FIRIP

"La qualité du partenariat public / privé permet de faciliter le déploiement du FTTH sur l'ensemble des territoires" Rachid Adda, Conseil Général Val d'Oise

" Market operators continue to invest around 15 bn annually for fixed network roll-outs in Europe" Jussi Hatonen, European Investment Bank

"Le marché des RIP est très actif en France, mais pour assurer la réussite des RIP, il faut que les collectivités soient maître de leurs réseaux grâce notamment au lancement de services activés" David Elfassy, Altitude infrastructure

"La fibre optique est une infrastructure essentielle du 21ième siècle au même titre que l'électricité au 20ème siècle" Pierre-Eric Saint-André, Axione

"En France, plus de 300 000 foyers n'ont pas accès à internet : dès à présent, le satellite propose des solutions économiques, simples et performantes" Philippe Baudrier, Eutelsat

A propos

Pierre Michel Attali et les consultants de l’unité Développement de l'IDATE accompagnent les collectivités locales (Régions, Départements, Agglomérations, Villes) dans leur réflexion stratégique pour la mise en œuvre des Technologies de l'Information sur leurs territoires, au travers de projets de type schéma directeur de haut et très haut débit et de missions d'assistance à maîtrise d'ouvrage pour le déploiement opérationnel des réseaux.

L’unité Développement de l'IDATE a une expertise reconnue auprès des collectivités et des pouvoirs publics locaux et nationaux. Les consultants interviennent sur l’ensemble des problématiques numériques en offrant une palette de prestations répondant aux attentes des clients de l'IDATE.

DigiWorld Summit - du 19 au 21 Novembre 2013

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27Nov/13Off

[CR] Smarty City – DigiWorld Summit

DigiWorld Summit 2013 - The digital gold mines

Nicolas MORENO

Consultant at IDATE

La mobilité, un enjeu majeur de gestion urbaine

La poursuite de la croissance urbaine affecte les modes de vie. Le numérique participe à ces évolutions en offrant de nouvelles opportunités en matière de mobilité au sein de la ville (4G/LTE, cloud computing, ouverture des données,…). Ces mutations contribuent à l’apparition de nouveaux modèles de gestion de la mobilité urbaine.

Retrouvez le programme et les intervenants du séminaire Smart City

Une montée en puissance des tiers lieux

L’évolution de l’économie numérique produit des changements dans l’organisation des entreprises et de leurs salariés. Les pratiques collaboratives, le travail à distance et en situation de mobilité se développent rapidement contribuant à l’émergence des tiers lieux.

21% de télétravailleurs en 2025, dont 11% dans des télécentres

Selon une étude sur le télétravail qui sera prochainement publiée par La Caisse des Dépôts, un individu qui travaille dans un tiers lieu économise 73 minutes par jour et 124 euros par mois sur ses frais divers. Pour une entreprise, les bienfaits se traduisent par une baisse de l’absentéisme estimée à 5,5 jours par an et par télétravailleur. Cette forme d’organisation permet par ailleurs d’augmenter de 13% ses gains de production.

En 2025, la France comptera 21% de télétravailleurs dont 11% exerceront en télécentre. Pour absorber cette demande, 438 télécentres devront être créés en Ile-de-France et dans les 20 premières agglomérations françaises. Face cette perspective, la Caisse des Dépôts et des Consignations a annoncé un partenariat avec Regus et Orange pour soutenir le déploiement des télécentres dans les années à venir.

Des offres axées sur la souplesse, l’esprit collaboratif et les services

Les offres de tiers lieux apparaissent en pleine expansion depuis ces dernières années. Sur ses 1 700 sites dans le monde, Regus annonce en avoir créé 450 en 2013. Multiburo annonce plusieurs projets en Ile-de-France et dans les principales villes françaises pour les années à venir. Face à la demande des entreprises, les offres sont axées sur la souplesse en proposant des services à la carte et adaptables aux besoins de chaque entreprise. La location de bureau permet de répondre à un besoin ponctuel (location sans réservation pour une dizaine d’euros par heure) voire une demande à plus long terme dans le cadre d’une location mensuelle, estimée 3 à 4 fois moins onéreuse que le coût d’hébergement d’un salarié dans une entreprise. L’esprit collaboratif et les services sont renforcés dans le but d’insuffler à ses espaces une ambiance conviviale et professionnelle. La mise en réseau de ces espaces et leur accès transparent sont essentiels afin de répondre aux attentes des travailleurs nomades et mobiles.

Un « siège social bis » pour les entreprises

Selon la DRH de Cisco où le télétravail est ancré dans la culture de l’entreprise (c’est son « ADN »), les services proposés par les tiers lieux sont bénéfiques dans la mesure où ils garantissent un lien social qui a tendance à ses distendre quand un salarié travaille à son domicile. Plus globalement, les facteurs de succès des tiers lieux dépendent de leur capacité à proposer des services sécurisés, garants d’une excellente qualité professionnelle et à coût abordable.

L’adaptation des structures reste aujourd’hui lente en raison d’une série de motifs qui s’apparentent vraisemblablement davantage à des alibis (législatif, organisationnel, social, technique) qu’à de véritables contraintes objectives. La principale raison reste le degré de sensibilisation des décideurs et leur réelle motivation à s’ouvrir à un management au résultat.

Des technologies favorisant la mobilité et l’accessibilité aux services

La ville est par nature en constant changement: populations, biens, territoires urbains, idées, façons de penser et représentations sont mouvants. L'hypermodernité contemporaine nécessite la production d’une mobilité plus grande, diversifiée et changeante. Cette faculté à se mouvoir et à accéder aux ressources de la ville est impactée par le numérique. Le numérique favorise l'accroissement du potentiel d’interaction entre les individus et l’espace urbain et forge de nouvelles pratiques de mobilité.

Vers une information multimodale…

La diversification des modes de déplacement avec notamment l’apparition du « troisième mode » (autopartage, covoiturage,…) nécessite de revisiter la manière de produire l’information en matière de transport. Cette adaptation touche les acteurs existants du monde des transports et se trouve renforcer par l'arrivée de nouveaux acteurs issus du monde numérique et par une demande accrue du citoyen. Multimodalité, intermodalité, gestion du déplacement dans sa globalité tenant compte de l'ensemble des modes de transports mis à disposition dans la ville… sont autant de champs d'innovation.

Le déploiement de technologies interactives

NFC Deployments in France

Source : présentaiton de Pierre CARBONNE, Advisor and Program Manager for Mobile Services, NFC and Smart City, French Ministry of Industry

Le numérique participe aux évolutions des offres de services dans les villes. Il impacte ainsi tous les secteurs d’activité (transport, tourisme, santé, commerce,…) en faisant de l’usager un acteur central. Avec l’appui de l’Etat, une quinzaine de villes françaises s’est lancée dans la mise en place de projets utilisant différentes technologies sans contact, parmi lesquelles le NFC. Les applications liées aux transports et à la mobilité sont proposées, selon des spécificités propres à chaque territoire, par l'ensemble des projets. Une réflexion commune aux territoires a conduit à définir les conditions d'une mutualisation des fonctionnalités billettique.

Les premiers retours du terrain montrent un démarrage significatif de ces applications liées à la mobilité.

Déjà généralisée en dehors des bâtiments, la géolocalisation en « indoor » bénéficie d’un essor important depuis ces derniers mois. Les acteurs y voient un moyen de renforcer l’utilisation des services en améliorant la connectivité des usagers (visites virtuelles de sites, communication des offres commerciales).

Différents modèles de mise à disposition des données

En matière de « bigdata », Orange a mis en œuvre des initiatives faisant apparaître deux modèles distincts d’utilisation des données. Le projet Fluxvision compile les données produites par le réseau cellulaire pour fournir des informations en temps réel pour suivre les conditions de trafic. Ce service est facturé.

L’opérateur a par ailleurs, lancé un concours à l’international sur l’utilisation des données accumulées pendant plusieurs mois par le réseau de téléphonie mobile de Côte d’Ivoire. 83 équipes universitaires ont pu gratuitement utiliser ces données pour développer des applications, certaines d'entre elles ont proposé des modèles d'analyse des transports. Sans être totalement de l'open data, cette initiative montre le potentiel d'utilisation des données produites par le réseau cellulaire.

DigiWorld Summit - du 19 au 21 Novembre 2013

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