11Apr/140

How to meet the broadband needs 
of public safety users?

Frédéric Pujol, Head of the radio technologies & spectrum practice, IDATE

Frédéric Pujol
Head of the radio technologies and spectrum practice, Idate

 

 

In its latest report, part of the Spectrum service, IDATE details existing spectrum allocation for public safety services. It presents the requirements for broadband services and the corresponding spectrum needs of public safety users. The use of commercial LTE networks by public safety users is analyzed and the mobile broadband strategies for PPDR players are evaluated.

Public protection and disaster relief (PPDR) is the general designation given to a range of public safety services broken down into: Day-to-day operations (category ‘PP1’) or routine operations; large emergency and/or public events (category ‘PP2’) for larger events; and disaster relief (category ‘DR’) caused by either natural of human activity. PPDR is not a commercial service.

  • Current non-broadband PPDR systems mainly use the 400 MHz and the 700-800 bands worldwide. Spectrum above 1 GHz supports also a variety of PPDR operations for temporary use only.
  • Regarding spectrum requirements, PPDR users face the challenge of different interests within countries whether or not spectrum should be reserved for PPDR applications.
  • Broadband-dedicated PPDR spectrum is expected to be allocated mostly in the 700 MHz with complementary frequencies below 1 GHz for specific countries (800 MHz) and above 1 GHz (1.4 to 5 GHz frequencies). At 700 MHz, coexistence is mainly with television broadcasting/digital TV and commercial broadband networks in Europe.
  • According to PPDR user groups, a minimum of 2 x 10 MHz for broadband PPDR spectrum should be reserved, similar to what was allocated in the USA. Additional country specific spectrum needs to be calculated.
  • The question of allocating broadband PPDR spectrum through auctions is also being debated.

PPDR services can be provided through dedicated PPDR systems or commercial cellular networks.

  • The challenge is to enhance the LTE and LTE-Advanced standards to meet PPDR requirements. However, in the short term, extended LTE and LTE-Advanced capabilities and standards (Direct Mode, Proximity Services and Group Communications System Enablers, resilience and VoLTE) will not be in operation.
  • Dynamic use of shared broadband PPDR spectrum with predictable QoS is also a key potential capability considered through Temporary Licensed Access (LSA/ASA).

In conclusion, we have identified the following options for PPDR players wishing to get access to mobile broadband capabilities :

1.    Build and run an own dedicated broadband PPDR network
2.    Use a dedicated broadband PPDR network run by a private operator
3.    Use a narrow band PPDR network + MVNO agreement for broadband services
4.    Use a dedicated commercial mobile network or Use a standard commercial mobile network
5.    Use a dedicated commercial mobile network which operates specific PPDR spectrum

Potential candidate bands for broadband PPDR spectrum by region

tableau-Potential-candidate-bands-for-broadband-PPDR-spectrum-by-region

Source: IDATE

More information about "Public Safety Report" study.

24Feb/140

Global LTE forecasts

Frédéric Pujol, Head of the radio technologies & spectrum practice, IDATE

Frédéric PUJOL
LTE Lead analyst, IDATE

More than 1.3 billion LTE subscriptions worldwide by the end of 2017, generating a total €400 billion in revenue

 

According to our CEO, Yves Gassot: ‘the success of LTE is no doubt the most spectacular illustration of the inexorable rise of wireless. Plus the allocation of new frequency bands to mobile operators, the expected progress with LTE Advanced, the interleaving with managed Wi-Fi, and the perspectives of M2M/IoT are bound to further drive this momentum in the coming years’.

Alongside these technological strides, we are also seeing users, and the services and applications industry moving over en masse to the mobile internet. This is naturally having a considerable impact on the internet giants, and consumer electronics, component and PC suppliers -not to mention e-commerce vendors, and banking, gaming, TV and advertising companies…

The most important LTE Markets

Les plus importants marchés LTE

Source: IDATE

Among the many effects on the telecoms sector, three of the most momentous are that:

• LTE and its developments are likely to provide the industry with the opportunity to make good on promises to consumers over the innovation potential of access, not only for smartphones and the latest social media service. It will mean managing services tiered by quality and speed in a way that is clear to consumers, and accepted by internet companies. The rollout of LTE is also a good time for operators to redefine their business models for the internet era.

The price wars that have broken out in some markets, not least across Europe, reduce competition to the single parameter of price, which makes it difficult to sell different levels of quality. This is weighing on both margins and capex. The LTE era is likely to also be the era of market consolidation in the form of M&A and broad infrastructure sharing agreements – albeit under terms set by competition authorities and sector-specific regulation;

This consolidation will not remain confined to the wireless sector, and is already encompassing mergers with cable companies and wireline telcos. Ultra high-speed mobile systems require small cells and have massive backhauling needs. In addition to the expected interleaving of fixed and mobile infrastructures, the wisdom of bundles that include wireline and wireless services is becoming clear. All of which points to an entire industry that will need to be overhauled in the coming years.

Top 10 LTE operators (Q2 2013)

Top 10 LTE operators (Q2 2013)

Source: IDATE

Main LTE trends

• 119 million LTE subscriptions as of mid-2013 in the top 10 markets. Close to 130.5 million LTE subscriptions worldwide.
• Total LTE revenue in 2013 estimated at €57 billion.
• Rapid growth of LTE coverage in South Korea (100%) and the US.
• We forecast more than 1,313 million LTE subscriptions worldwide, by the end of 2017.
• Close to 450 mobile operators have committed to launching LTE.
• Close to 1,000 LTE devices as of mid-2013.
• Already 19 LTE frequency bands in use in Q2 2013.
• TD-LTE is still a emerging ecosystem with only 2 million subscriptions at the end of 2013.
• Video represents close to 60% of LTE traffic.
• LTE is also used for fixed services.

As of mid-2013 there were more than 130 million LTE subscriptions worldwide, compared to 69 million at the end of 2012. The 100 million mark was passed in June 2013, with the US, Japan and South Korea leading the pack.
More than 54% of LTE subscriptions in mid-2013 were in the US, with Verizon Wireless supplying the majority of them. The operator had covered 96% of the US population at that time.
200 commercial LTE networks – both FDD and TDD as of mid-2013: only 20 TD-LTE networks and 180 LTE FDD networks.
LTE-Advanced was launched in the second half of 2013 in South Korea.
The top three LTE operators are Verizon Wireless, AT&T and NTT Docomo.

Download the complete report LTE 2014: Markets & Trends

13Feb/140

Edito by Yves Gassot

GASSOT Yves
 
Yves Gassot

CEO, IDATE


Round-up for 2014

It’s hard, in the first editorial of the year, to avoid laying out the overriding themes that we expect to see play out over the next twelve months. But it is still too early for me to deliver a complete summary of the year gone by, which has become the much-anticipated task of our DigiWorld Yearbook.
You will also need to wait until the next Executive Note to find out the central topic selected for this year’s DigiWorld Summit (but you can already mark your calendars for November 18, 19 and 20).

What I can share with you, however, is our belief in the profound relevance of certain issues, by summarising three topics that we have chosen to explore in this year’s Collaborative Research Programme (CRP 2014). These are think tanks open to existing IDATE member companies and those wanting to join, who will work for close to a year with a dedicated team of our analysts on the following subjects:

Telecoms USA: model or counter-model?

Following thorough on the two projects carried out in Brussels in 2012 and 2013 on telcos’ new business models, and the new European policy options being considered, we will work to deepen our understanding of the specific points that explain the different directions being taken on either side of the Atlantic.

The internet of things: will everything be connected?

We are going to analyse the true potential of the internet of things, by taking account of the developments that need to occur in the technical environment, difficulties in generating income from both consumer objects and industry applications and, finally, governance and personal data ownership issues, with tie-ins to our 2013 think tank on personal data

What will tomorrow’s TV and video networks look like?

Here we are building on the 2013 Video as a Service think tank by exploring issues surrounding the future of television and video distribution networks, and by analysing long-term scenarios for the delivery of TV and video products, taking particular account of the cooperation and convergence between networks, i.e. hybridisation involving both fixed and cellular networks

Other topics may be added to the CRP. For instance, we are contemplating an ambitious project that aims to define what could be a comprehensive, metropolitan area-scale digital investment strategy, going beyond marketing clichés and segmented vertical approaches.

I can also tell you that the next issue of Communications & Strategies (DigiWorld Economic journal) will be published in March, and is shaping up to be a promising one. It will be devoted to scoring Europe’s telecommunications sector, and examining potentially clashing policies.
And, finally, a reminder that the best way to delve into the subjects that are consuming our teams is though the reports that we publish every month as part of our annual Market Research programme.

31Jan/140

The LTE-only market

Basile Carle

 
Basile CARLE
Senior consultant, LTE


How much potential for LTE-only?

With LTE nationwide coverage a near-reality in some advanced markets such as South Korea, the USA and Japan, the question arises of the relevance of launching LTE-only devices. Indeed, LTE-only devices come with benefits for both operators and consumers, especially in terms of cost, energy consumption and space saved inside the device and available for additional components or larger capacity batteries.

• For the operators, LTE-only devices may even become strategic since it will help them to transition their users more easily to their latest network while releasing new resources to cope with the data traffic explosion. Today, voice is no longer of any importance, but data is. With carrier aggregation, each chunk of spectrum available is valuable. Fewer 2G/3G users means more capacity for mobile broadband networks.

• Few operators have already launched LTE-only devices. Verizon is one of the first to have done so with a digital camera and more recently a tablet. Other operators such as LG U+ in South Korea have also done so with ultrabooks and hybrid laptop/tablets devices.

• Our forecasts for LTE devices indicate that close to one billion will be shipped in 2017.

M2M modules, shipment trends (In millions)

M2M Modules shipment trends for LTE-only market

Source: IDATE

• However, some applications are more suitable than others for those kinds of devices. The first LTE-only handsets, for instance, should arrive on the market in 2014-2015 but they will require VoLTE to be supported on the network to have any meaning. Still, as long as LTE is not widely available worldwide with LTE roaming in place (which may take time), using its device abroad may be tricky.

• In the data-centric segment of devices however, the potential is bigger but the question of the competition with other wireless technologies remains. Fixed LTE broadband in remote areas is an application of choice for LTE where fixed broadband technologies are not available. However, many objects or appliances will rather be connected with shorter range technologies than rely on cellular connectivity. Indeed, why connect your fridge to an LTE network with an associated plan when you already have a broadband connection in your household? Likewise, devices such as smartwatches or e-health devices with sensors embedded for measuring self-use will rather be connected to smartphones with some Bluetooth Smart (Bluetooth Low Energy) than directly to a cellular network.

• Even more specifically in the M2M segment, LTE is currently not adapted to traditional low energy / narrowband / cost-conscious applications such as security, metering, fleet management. For these applications, work is being carried out to bring some machine type communication (MTC) in the Release 12 of LTE but compliant devices are not expected in the immediate future. This work will lead to the emergence of some kind of narrowband / low energy LTE.

The market report entitled “The LTE only market” is published as part of IDATE’s LTE World market series

27Nov/13Off

[CR] NGN Funding – DigiWorld Summit 2013

DigiWorld Summit 2013 - The digital gold mines

Thomas CALDIRONI

Consultant at IDATE

Réseaux Très Haut Débit et intervention publique

Financement dréseaux Très Haut Débit - Articulation acteurs publics/privés

En France depuis 2004 et la loi pour la confiance dans l'économie numérique, mais aussi à l'étranger, l'intervention publique dans les réseaux Haut et Très Haut Débit est une réalité avec un impact direct sur l'aménagement numérique des territoires, mais également sur la création d'activités et d'emplois. Ces interventions publiques ont pris des formes différentes afin de permettre de garantir une bonne articulation entre investissements privés et intervention publique.

Retrouvez le programme et les intervenants du séminaire NGN Funding

L'intervention publique est évidemment incontournable pour aménager en très haut débit les territoires. Le THD par la seule action du marché, n'impacte que les zones denses et moyennement denses. Les zones moins denses et rurales sont délaissées par les opérateurs privés, légitimement vu l'absence de rentabilité, accentuant ainsi la "fracture numérique".

Le déploiement des réseaux à très haut débit est une véritable source de croissance pour l'ensemble de l'économie avec à la clé la création de plusieurs milliers d'emplois. En ce sens, les acteurs publics ne peuvent être absents de ces infrastructures qui sont essentielles pour le 21ième siècle au même titre que l'ont été les réseaux d'électricité ou de transport pour le 20ième siècle.

Il s'agit en effet d'abord d'emplois directs pour construire et exploiter ces réseaux, avec des emplois non délocalisables. Mais au-delà des emplois directs, il s'agit aussi d'emplois indirects, du fait de l'accroissement de compétitivité issu de ces réseaux et qui va bénéficier à l'ensemble des filières économiques et du fait aussi des nouveaux services et usages du numérique qui vont se développer.

perspectives THD en France by IDATE & FiRiP

Source :Synthèse de l’Observatoire des entreprises intervenant dans les Réseaux d’Initiative Publique (RIP) – Enquête FIRIP / IDATE

Les collectivités locales en France ont pris conscience des enjeux liés au THD pour leurs territoires. Les Schémas Directeurs Territoriaux d'Aménagement Numérique (SDTAN), portent désormais sur 98 départements, soit la quasi-totalité du territoire national. Ces SDTAN permettent une bonne articulation entre les déploiements privés ciblant les zones très denses ou moyennement denses et l'intervention publique centrée sur les zones peu denses.

Les faits

• L'intervention publique est indispensable pour le déploiement du Très Haut Débit ;
• Le déploiement de la fibre optique public et privé génère des emplois directs non délocalisables et des emplois indirects ;
• Le partenariat entre le public et le privé est nécessaire pour le développement du Très Haut Débit ;

Les citations

"Est-ce que le pari du Très Haut Débit ne vaut pas la peine d'être tenté ?" Pierre-Michel Attali, IDATE

• "Les RIP départementaux et régionaux ont permis le déploiement de 373 000 prises FTTH, le dégroupage de 828 000 prises ADSL, de raccorder en fibre optique 2 500 ZA, ainsi que de rendre raccordable en fibre optique 9 000 sites publics" Christophe Genter, Caisse des dépôts et Consignation

"Les RIP ont permis la création de 3 000 emplois directs, non délocalisables mais exportables. En 2012, les entreprises de la filière RIP ont généré un chiffre d'affaire de 1.1 milliards d'euros" Etienne Dugas, FIRIP

"La qualité du partenariat public / privé permet de faciliter le déploiement du FTTH sur l'ensemble des territoires" Rachid Adda, Conseil Général Val d'Oise

" Market operators continue to invest around 15 bn annually for fixed network roll-outs in Europe" Jussi Hatonen, European Investment Bank

"Le marché des RIP est très actif en France, mais pour assurer la réussite des RIP, il faut que les collectivités soient maître de leurs réseaux grâce notamment au lancement de services activés" David Elfassy, Altitude infrastructure

"La fibre optique est une infrastructure essentielle du 21ième siècle au même titre que l'électricité au 20ème siècle " Pierre-Eric Saint-André, Axione

"En France, plus de 300 000 foyers n'ont pas accès à internet : dès à présent, le satellite propose des solutions économiques, simples et performantes" Philippe Baudrier, Eutelsat

"Est-ce que le pari du Très Haut Débit ne vaut pas la peine d'être tenté ?" Pierre-Michel Attali, IDATE

"Les RIP départementaux et régionaux ont permis le déploiement de 373 000 prises FTTH, le dégroupage de 828 000 prises ADSL, de raccorder en fibre optique 2 500 ZA, ainsi que de rendre raccordable en fibre optique 9 000 sites publics" Christophe Genter, Caisse des dépôts et Consignation

"Les RIP ont permis la création de 3 000 emplois directs, non délocalisables mais exportables. En 2012, les entreprises de la filière RIP ont généré un chiffre d'affaire de 1.1 milliards d'euros" Etienne Dugas, FIRIP

"La qualité du partenariat public / privé permet de faciliter le déploiement du FTTH sur l'ensemble des territoires" Rachid Adda, Conseil Général Val d'Oise

" Market operators continue to invest around 15 bn annually for fixed network roll-outs in Europe" Jussi Hatonen, European Investment Bank

"Le marché des RIP est très actif en France, mais pour assurer la réussite des RIP, il faut que les collectivités soient maître de leurs réseaux grâce notamment au lancement de services activés" David Elfassy, Altitude infrastructure

"La fibre optique est une infrastructure essentielle du 21ième siècle au même titre que l'électricité au 20ème siècle" Pierre-Eric Saint-André, Axione

"En France, plus de 300 000 foyers n'ont pas accès à internet : dès à présent, le satellite propose des solutions économiques, simples et performantes" Philippe Baudrier, Eutelsat

A propos

Pierre Michel Attali et les consultants de l’unité Développement de l'IDATE accompagnent les collectivités locales (Régions, Départements, Agglomérations, Villes) dans leur réflexion stratégique pour la mise en œuvre des Technologies de l'Information sur leurs territoires, au travers de projets de type schéma directeur de haut et très haut débit et de missions d'assistance à maîtrise d'ouvrage pour le déploiement opérationnel des réseaux.

L’unité Développement de l'IDATE a une expertise reconnue auprès des collectivités et des pouvoirs publics locaux et nationaux. Les consultants interviennent sur l’ensemble des problématiques numériques en offrant une palette de prestations répondant aux attentes des clients de l'IDATE.

DigiWorld Summit - du 19 au 21 Novembre 2013

Retrouvez les médias enrichis produits pendant la conférence :

27Nov/13Off

[CR] Smarty City – DigiWorld Summit

DigiWorld Summit 2013 - The digital gold mines

Nicolas MORENO

Consultant at IDATE

La mobilité, un enjeu majeur de gestion urbaine

La poursuite de la croissance urbaine affecte les modes de vie. Le numérique participe à ces évolutions en offrant de nouvelles opportunités en matière de mobilité au sein de la ville (4G/LTE, cloud computing, ouverture des données,…). Ces mutations contribuent à l’apparition de nouveaux modèles de gestion de la mobilité urbaine.

Retrouvez le programme et les intervenants du séminaire Smart City

Une montée en puissance des tiers lieux

L’évolution de l’économie numérique produit des changements dans l’organisation des entreprises et de leurs salariés. Les pratiques collaboratives, le travail à distance et en situation de mobilité se développent rapidement contribuant à l’émergence des tiers lieux.

21% de télétravailleurs en 2025, dont 11% dans des télécentres

Selon une étude sur le télétravail qui sera prochainement publiée par La Caisse des Dépôts, un individu qui travaille dans un tiers lieu économise 73 minutes par jour et 124 euros par mois sur ses frais divers. Pour une entreprise, les bienfaits se traduisent par une baisse de l’absentéisme estimée à 5,5 jours par an et par télétravailleur. Cette forme d’organisation permet par ailleurs d’augmenter de 13% ses gains de production.

En 2025, la France comptera 21% de télétravailleurs dont 11% exerceront en télécentre. Pour absorber cette demande, 438 télécentres devront être créés en Ile-de-France et dans les 20 premières agglomérations françaises. Face cette perspective, la Caisse des Dépôts et des Consignations a annoncé un partenariat avec Regus et Orange pour soutenir le déploiement des télécentres dans les années à venir.

Des offres axées sur la souplesse, l’esprit collaboratif et les services

Les offres de tiers lieux apparaissent en pleine expansion depuis ces dernières années. Sur ses 1 700 sites dans le monde, Regus annonce en avoir créé 450 en 2013. Multiburo annonce plusieurs projets en Ile-de-France et dans les principales villes françaises pour les années à venir. Face à la demande des entreprises, les offres sont axées sur la souplesse en proposant des services à la carte et adaptables aux besoins de chaque entreprise. La location de bureau permet de répondre à un besoin ponctuel (location sans réservation pour une dizaine d’euros par heure) voire une demande à plus long terme dans le cadre d’une location mensuelle, estimée 3 à 4 fois moins onéreuse que le coût d’hébergement d’un salarié dans une entreprise. L’esprit collaboratif et les services sont renforcés dans le but d’insuffler à ses espaces une ambiance conviviale et professionnelle. La mise en réseau de ces espaces et leur accès transparent sont essentiels afin de répondre aux attentes des travailleurs nomades et mobiles.

Un « siège social bis » pour les entreprises

Selon la DRH de Cisco où le télétravail est ancré dans la culture de l’entreprise (c’est son « ADN »), les services proposés par les tiers lieux sont bénéfiques dans la mesure où ils garantissent un lien social qui a tendance à ses distendre quand un salarié travaille à son domicile. Plus globalement, les facteurs de succès des tiers lieux dépendent de leur capacité à proposer des services sécurisés, garants d’une excellente qualité professionnelle et à coût abordable.

L’adaptation des structures reste aujourd’hui lente en raison d’une série de motifs qui s’apparentent vraisemblablement davantage à des alibis (législatif, organisationnel, social, technique) qu’à de véritables contraintes objectives. La principale raison reste le degré de sensibilisation des décideurs et leur réelle motivation à s’ouvrir à un management au résultat.

Des technologies favorisant la mobilité et l’accessibilité aux services

La ville est par nature en constant changement: populations, biens, territoires urbains, idées, façons de penser et représentations sont mouvants. L'hypermodernité contemporaine nécessite la production d’une mobilité plus grande, diversifiée et changeante. Cette faculté à se mouvoir et à accéder aux ressources de la ville est impactée par le numérique. Le numérique favorise l'accroissement du potentiel d’interaction entre les individus et l’espace urbain et forge de nouvelles pratiques de mobilité.

Vers une information multimodale…

La diversification des modes de déplacement avec notamment l’apparition du « troisième mode » (autopartage, covoiturage,…) nécessite de revisiter la manière de produire l’information en matière de transport. Cette adaptation touche les acteurs existants du monde des transports et se trouve renforcer par l'arrivée de nouveaux acteurs issus du monde numérique et par une demande accrue du citoyen. Multimodalité, intermodalité, gestion du déplacement dans sa globalité tenant compte de l'ensemble des modes de transports mis à disposition dans la ville… sont autant de champs d'innovation.

Le déploiement de technologies interactives

NFC Deployments in France

Source : présentaiton de Pierre CARBONNE, Advisor and Program Manager for Mobile Services, NFC and Smart City, French Ministry of Industry

Le numérique participe aux évolutions des offres de services dans les villes. Il impacte ainsi tous les secteurs d’activité (transport, tourisme, santé, commerce,…) en faisant de l’usager un acteur central. Avec l’appui de l’Etat, une quinzaine de villes françaises s’est lancée dans la mise en place de projets utilisant différentes technologies sans contact, parmi lesquelles le NFC. Les applications liées aux transports et à la mobilité sont proposées, selon des spécificités propres à chaque territoire, par l'ensemble des projets. Une réflexion commune aux territoires a conduit à définir les conditions d'une mutualisation des fonctionnalités billettique.

Les premiers retours du terrain montrent un démarrage significatif de ces applications liées à la mobilité.

Déjà généralisée en dehors des bâtiments, la géolocalisation en « indoor » bénéficie d’un essor important depuis ces derniers mois. Les acteurs y voient un moyen de renforcer l’utilisation des services en améliorant la connectivité des usagers (visites virtuelles de sites, communication des offres commerciales).

Différents modèles de mise à disposition des données

En matière de « bigdata », Orange a mis en œuvre des initiatives faisant apparaître deux modèles distincts d’utilisation des données. Le projet Fluxvision compile les données produites par le réseau cellulaire pour fournir des informations en temps réel pour suivre les conditions de trafic. Ce service est facturé.

L’opérateur a par ailleurs, lancé un concours à l’international sur l’utilisation des données accumulées pendant plusieurs mois par le réseau de téléphonie mobile de Côte d’Ivoire. 83 équipes universitaires ont pu gratuitement utiliser ces données pour développer des applications, certaines d'entre elles ont proposé des modèles d'analyse des transports. Sans être totalement de l'open data, cette initiative montre le potentiel d'utilisation des données produites par le réseau cellulaire.

DigiWorld Summit - du 19 au 21 Novembre 2013

Retrouvez les médias enrichis produits pendant la conférence :

26Nov/13Off

[CR] Future Internet Networks – DigiWorld Summit

DigiWorld Summit 2013 - The digital gold mines

Julien GaudemerJulien GAUDEMER

Consultant at IDATE

Future Internet Networks

More and more devices connected, more and more service providers, more and more content consumed… leading to more and more data traffic! In this seminar, experts, network equipment providers and operators have drawn on how the future Internet networks may look like through the analysis of the major emerging trends by 2025 : SDN (Software Defined Network), NFV (Network Function Virtualization), 5G, M2M (Machine to Machine) and Internet of Things have been at the center of discussions.

Find the programme and speakers of the Future Internet Networks Seminar online

Introducing a new era of network infrastructure with SDN and network virtualization

The first round table provided hot discussions on SDN and NFV with speakers from telco, from network solutions and from network equipment manufacturer. These are the questions asked to the speakers:

When future network will be rolled out?

• Network is the next step in the virtualization trend following servers and storage. SDN and NFV require important changes, proof of concept, and trials before a roll out. Such steps require years.
• Moreover, as Ryan SHUTTLEWORTH from Verizon said “SDN and NFV are not mature technologies yet.” SDN is currently rolled out at the scale of a datacenter and not really at a telco network level.

What are the main drivers?

• Savings is the first obvious driver of such technologies, but generated new revenues are also an important benefit to consider. The agility and the simplification of operations are also strong promises of SDN.
• Besides, the ability to make a link between cloud services (virtualized servers) and the virtualized network should be an interesting benefit.

What is the impact on the ecosystem?

• On the supplier side, new suppliers are expected to come. Moreover, the elasticity of the infrastructures created by SDN and NFV can lead to new business models. It will also enable a new level of developers.
• In general, changes related to the implementation of these new networks will have to be managed internally by both equipment vendors and telcos. Those who manage correctly IT, network and cloud will be able to leverage a strong competitive advantage.

Another aspect has been introduced then, related to content distribution: the future of Content Delivery Networks, illustrated by Ahmet OZALP from Akamai. He presented 11 predictions for this future. Among these predictions:

• As traffic will grow exponentially, CDN should be used also more and more in order to reduce the overall traffic. In 2012, CDN traffic was 53% of all consumer traffic and should be up to 65% in 2017 according to Akamai.
• Connected devices will bring complexity to deliver services correctly: especially Connected TVs and Home consoles. All devices support various protocols and formats that has to be handled to deliver services.
• CDN architectures should evolve. In the future the content will be closer to the end-user, providing cache servers closer to the access network, as in the figure below from Akamai presentation.

The future of Content Delivery Networks

pay-TV market USA

Source: Ahmet OZALP from Akamai

• The cooperation between CDN and telcos will be stronger in the future in order to reduce the traffic. In addition, CDN should enhance OTT video quality, exceeding traditional TV quality level. CDN services should become more and more cost effective. In the end, CDN market will have a healthy growth.

The focus of this seminar then shift to Franck BOUETARD from Ericsson with a presentation of Marc Plaszczynski, from Thales Alenia Space.

• Regarding the evolution of satellites, Mr. Plaszczynski mentioned that “Satellite Systems have enhanced their broadcast capabilities with high-value, integrated, flexible and interactive new Satellite solutions”.
• In addition, Satellite systems are adapting to support efficiently the Future Internet Networks evolution with hybrid end-to-end Systems. Satellite systems have also made improvements a comprehensive set of skills and solutions to foresee the unforeseeable.

Franck BOUETARD from Ericsson then presented his view on drivers of the future networks and 5G. He especially mentioned the Metis Consortium, 29 partners led by Ericsson, looking to 5G for after 2020. There are 5 things to address as mentioned in the figure below. Drivers for future networks are mobility, video traffic, 50 billion connected devices, high speed access, Network cloud and QoS.

Metis Project Objectives Ericsson

Source: Franck BOUETARD's slides, Ericsson

Tailoring future networks for the Internet of Things

Samuel Ropert from IDATE then introduced the second round table about Internet of Things :

• M2M is the first step of IoT. It is especially a combination of various value chains: electronic, telecom, computing, and machines themselves
• IDATE forecast; in 2017, M2M SIM cards represent
- 5,9% of all SIM cards (human and machine) worldwide
- 14% of all SIM cards in Europe
• BUT In 2017, M2M connectivity revenues represent
- 1.3% of mobile revenues worldwide

The main topics discussed during this round table are as followed:

Technologies Issues

• Regarding communication technologies, M2M players mentioned that they are focusing particularly on 2G, low energy equipment, low bandwidth, as low cost is fine for objects. 4G is 7 time more expensive than 2G. Working on special 4G for machines require standardization, expected for 2017-18. Use cases are also important. For cars for example, LTE may make sense, even if expensive. Another example is video surveillance that is expensive but 4G brings quality.
• Regarding security issues, wireless is secure. The issue is protecting user privacy. For instance cars: driving too fast, location … can be obtained through M2M, but how do we protect privacy? The EU is trying to tackle the problem, but it all comes down to privacy, how is it guaranteed?

Need for standardization?

• M2M is everything but standardized. A lot of use cases are emerging, but no standards. Gathering the right data is difficult, accurately, and analyzing it. It is not a problem of big (too much) data, but accuracy.
• There is maybe a need for hierarchy of objects for standardization. In the last 5 years: it has been pushed by regulation. Ehealth seems to be most promising growth.

What role will startups play?

• They can play active role in creating applications.

Nicolas Demassieux from Orange concluded the session with a longer perspective vision on future networks. He especially mentioned that SDN can be compared to PC computer architecture with hardware managed by software, managed by the user. More generally, the current concept of communication infrastructures will be transformed to services distributed across “device + Network + Cloud”.

DigiWorld Summit - 19th to 21st Nomember 2013

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26Sep/13Off

In-Flight Connectivity: Satellite vs LTE

Maxime Baudry, Co-Head of Satellite Practice at IDATE

 

Maxime Baudry
Co-Head of Satellite Practice

 

43% of worldwide commercial aircrafts will be connected for broadband access services in 2017 against only 17.5% at end-2012

Until quite recently, the aviation communications market was limited to operational communications between the cockpit and control tower. It is now expanding to include voice and data communications for passengers around the world, a market that, while still limited, is set to grow in the next few years. The technology has been around for a number of years, but Boeing’s CBB service failed to convince airlines back in 2004. As airlines compete fiercely among themselves and with other modes of transport, the benefits of passengers being able to use their cell phones or go online via their laptops or tablets could prove a very strong selling point.

The in-flight connectivity market is rapidly expanding around the world

  • The market for broadband access on planes will continue to grow in response to strong demand from air passengers for connectivity.
  • Expectations run very high: air passengers are seeking the same quality service and experience they have grown accustomed to with terrestrial connections.
  • Applications are still mainly focused on internet browsing and emails, but video consumption increases rapidly
  • To meet these expectations, one by one, airlines are equipping their fleets with broadband Internet access. By mid-2013, over a third of domestic flights (38%) in the United States offered an Internet access solution.
  • We now see a sharp increase in the number of equipped planes in all geographical regions of the globe, although virtually all of the systems currently in operation are in North America.
Evolution of "connected" aircrafts between 2010 and 2012

inflight connectivity lte vs satellite

Source: IDATE, Market Insight "Inflight conenctivity: Satellite vs LTE", August 2013

The business model remains uncertain

  • Revenue-sharing is the most common business model today. A price is agreed between the operator and airline and the revenues then shared, the operator usually taking a larger cut than the airline;
  • According to IDATE, the revenues from these services are not sufficient to generate a profit. They essentially cover just the operating costs (purchase of bandwidth, system maintenance and extra fuel consumption due to the weight of the terminal and increased drag on the plane);
  • In the future, these services could not be extra-charged
  • According to IDATE, there are still doubts regarding a sustainable business model, especially because the still weak adoption rate for paid-services (approximately 7%)

Satellite access solutions should face competition from LTE by 2016

  • Two solutions currently exist: an Air-To-Ground (ATG) solution in the United States, which is losing pace due to the lack of adequate spectrum, and the satellite solution (Ku and Ka frequency bands).
  • The introduction of Ka-band systems should revolutionize the market, providing access to much faster speeds (from 2 to 12 Mbps per passenger) at much lower prices (bandwidth costs up to 10 times cheaper).
  • By 2016, however, satellite will face competition from LTE, a technology currently being tested by manufacturers such as Alcatel-Lucent, ZTE and Huawei for in-flight connectivity on commercial aircraft.
  • LTE solutions could reach speeds of 30 Mbps per plane, with much lower CAPEX and OPEX.

IDATE estimates that 43% of aircraft will be connected in 2017

  • According to our estimates, at end-2012, more than 2 700 commercial aircraft worldwide offered a broadband Internet service, 80% of these via the Gogo terrestrial solution.
    This figure represents just 17% of the total fleet of planes worldwide, which Airbus estimates at 15 500 aircraft.
  • According to IDATE, the market for broadband Internet access on planes should expand sharply between now and 2017, reaching 8 240 aircraft in 2017 (43% of the total fleet in service worldwide).
  • Market is facing a complete hybridization of ATG LTE & Satellite services up to 2020.

IDATE's new insight "In-Flight Connectivity" provides its readers with a synoptic overview of the latest changes in the In-Flight Broadband market. It showcases the market's current services and usages, analyzes the various business models, details the existing satellite solutions and proposes a prospective for 2017, taking in account the emerging Air-To-Ground solutions based on LTE technology.

19Sep/13Off

LTE-Advanced

Frédéric Pujol, Head of the radio technologies & spectrum practice, IDATE

Frédéric PUJOL
Head of the radio technologies & spectrum practice, IDATE

 


LTE-Advanced will represent 30-40% of the total LTE subscriber base at the end of 2017

LTE networks in operation today mainly use LTE Release 8 of the 3GPP standard. LTE-Advanced (Release 10) brings many technological innovations which enable higher data rates on both the uplink and the downlink and deliver better performance at the cell edge:

  • LTE-Advanced (LTE-A) enables higher data rates: theoretically, 150 Mbps on the downlink and as high as 3 Gbps in the years ahead. An uplink maximum of 1.5 Gbps will be possible.
  • LTE-Advanced brings many enhancements to LTE networks. LTE operators can ‘pick and choose’ the functionalities such as carrier aggregation, enhanced Inter-Cell Interference Coordination (eICIC), HetNets and enhanced MIMO.
    • Carrier aggregation: a total up to 100 MHz bandwidth can be aggregated with a maximum of five component carriers. This will enable higher user peak throughput.
    • Heterogeneous Networks (HetNets): LTE-A enables operators to deploy low-power small-cells in addition to macrocells in the same channel.
    • Enhanced MIMO: up to eight multiplexed layers for downlink and up to four multiplexed layers for uplink.
    • Relay function.
    • Spectrum efficiency: 1.4 to 1.6 times better than on LTE Release 8.
  • LTE-Advanced compatible smartphones were launched in Q2 2013 by Samsung and LG.Apple is expected to follow in H2 2013 or early 2014.

The first LTE-Advanced networks were launched in early H2 2013 and the mass market for LTE-Advanced is expected to have taken shape by 2014-2015. USA, South Korea and Japan are currently the front runners regarding LTE-Advanced implementation. The leaders in LTE-Advanced deployment are South Korean operators, headed by SKT and LG U+. Actually SK Telecom places much emphasis on carrier aggregation but many other players in the industry indicate that higher-order MIMO and HetNets are also key elements in LTE Advanced.On 26 June 2013, SK Telecom, the pioneer in LTE-Advanced, launched its LTE-A services in parallel with the Samsung Galaxy S4 LTE-A enabled version. At the end of July 2013, SK Telecom reported 300,000 LTE-Advanced subscribers in South Korea, out of a total LTE base of 11 million.

Roadmap of LTE-Advanced implementations

LTE-Advanced implementations

Source: IDATE

The LTE-Advanced market will soon follow in opening in Japan and the USA. New markets will open in 2014 and mass adoption will start in 2015. We forecast that LTE-Advanced will represent 30-40% of the total LTE subscriber base at the end of 2017 and should reach a half-billion LTE-Advanced subscriptions worldwide.

This analysis is an excerpt of our LTE-Advanced Market Insight