Africa and Middle East LTE forecasts
Frédéric PUJOL
Head of the radio technologies & spectrum practice, IDATE
70 million LTE subscribers for Africa and Middle East in 2016
As an official partner of LTE MENA 2013, IDATE delivers its latest insights about the LTE Market in Africa and Middle East.
LTE is gaining momentum: by 2016, there will be a total of 916 million LTE subscriptions worldwide. Our forecasts regarding Africa and Middle East are for 68 million LTE subscriptions at the end of 2016.
World LTE market : LTE deployments stepping up
• We expect that, by the end of 2013, a significant portion of LTE devices will support both FDD and TDD duplex modes. TD-LTE deployments in India, China and many other countries in the Asia-Pacific, Latin American, and Middle East regions and, to a lesser extent, Europe will fuel this growth.
• We anticipate that more than 80% of LTE devices will also support 3G and, in most cases, 2G in 2014.
• A limited number of LTE devices will support Mobile WiMAX in order to facilitate smooth transition for operators switching to TD-LTE.
Middle East & Africa : 70 million LTE suscribers by 2016
• The first LTE commercial services were launched in South Africa, Tanzania and Namibia in 2H 2012.
• Saudi Arabia: the three MNOs – Etisalat-Mobily, Zain Saudi Arabia and Saudi Telecom Company (STC) – launched LTE services in 2011. They were slowed down by the lack of compatible smartphones.
• Our forecasts are for 68 million LTE subscriptions at the end of 2016 in the countries of the Middle East and Africa for a revenue of 20 billion Euro.
Africa Middle East LTE Subscribers forecasts (thousand)
Source: IDATE
Frédéric PUJOL
Head of Mobile & Spectrum Practice at IDATE
f.pujol@idate.org
Residential LTE vs. Satellite broadband
Maxime Baudry
Co-Head of Satellite Practice at IDATE
Perspectives for satellite broadband facing residential LTE offerings
Just as they did with 3G, telcos started to propose residential offers based on LTE, how does it compare with satellite broadband offers?
Residential LTE, a direct competitor to satellite broadband
ust as they did with 3G, telcos started to propose residential offers based on LTE. It’s notably the case of Verizon Wireless in the United States who proposes “Home Fusion” since May 2012, a service that allows households to access broadband via an outdoor LTE antenna installed on one of the walls of the building. The antenna is billed 200 USD but the installation is free. How does it compare with satellite broadband offers? Downloading speeds vary between 5 and 12 Mbps in average with a pricing range going from 60USD for 10GB of data to 120 USD Monthly for 120 GB. With similarities in pricing, downloading speeds and data caps, LTE is positioned as a direct competitor to Satellite broadband.
Residential LTE coming to Europe
In Europe, first LTE offers arrive on the market. The first to propose such services was Netcom, a filial of TeliaSonera, who was first to propose LTE in Norway. It offers 100GB of data for a monthly fee of 68 EUR. According to Netcom, it is very likely that this kind of solution could be considered as a substitute to DSL, especially when the monthly data cap exceeds observed traffic on DSL networks (An average of 30 GB per household). In germany, Vodafone proposes a similar offer since 2012, but this time it is differentiated with quality of service through network speed with prices starting from 25 EUR to 40 EUR monthly to have access to 50 Mbps and 30 GB.
Satellite Broadband: no more competitive?
Considering this kind of offers, satellite broadband is no more competitive, neither on network speed nor on monthly data cap offered. Even though these new offerings materializes the LTE threat for satellite broadband we had foreseen, LTE coverage remains very limited. Anyhow, satellite will have to pursue its downloading speeds increase since 2008 if it wants to maintain a competitive advantage on this market.
Positioning of some satellite broadband offers in France, March 2013
Source: Digiworld by IDATE
Maxime Baudry
Head of the radio technologies & spectrum practice, IDATE
m.baudry@idate.org
Viewpoint on the latest changes for LTE chipsets device landscape
Basile CARLE
LTE Baseband market: Race for second position & Technology standards ahead
Following Mobile World Congress 2013, the main trends regarding LTE chipsets and devices are as follows:
Qualcomm is by far the unchallenged leader on the LTE baseband market with more than 80% of the market; it is followed by Samsung and its home-grown chipset strategy. Behind, the race is rather more toward the second position than the first. Major baseband vendors seem ready to embrace the market with multimode FDD/TDD LTE solutions, showing that the market has been entering a second phase.
A situation of oligopsony due to mobile phone market concentration
The concentration of the market around Apple and Samsung makes it even more difficult for LTE baseband vendors to attain volume production. It will be difficult to reach Number Two position on the market without a device win between those two players.
Entrance of Chinese and Taiwanese vendors splits the market between high and low end
In this context, the entrance of Chinese and Taiwanese vendors on the LTE baseband market is even more striking. It suggests that the market will split between the lower-end LTE baseband and the higher-end supporting the latest features of LTE Release 10.
Lack of baseband certifications discredits promising technology developements
While new players are readying to enter the market, others, such as ST-Ericsson and Renesas, are finding it difficult to survive. Despite promising technology developments, they may well either close down their business or find a new life in competitor portfolios. Such difficulties highlight the dual importance of baseband certification by carriers and of securing a quick ‘device win’ to enter a virtuous circle, where certification is easier. There, because the baseband is certified, it is more easily selected by device manufacturers.
LTE Devices compatibility: new standards emerging
While most vendors will have multimode LTE Cat 3 baseband in store this year, being able to face the challenges of LTE Cat 4 while still reducing power consumption will make the difference among vendors. By the end of the year, thanks to carrier aggregation, VoLTE should be supported by most advanced baseband with Qualcomm still ahead – their MDM9x25 baseband is already being integrated in devices for releases during the second half of this year. World LTE devices capable of roaming on the 40 different LTE bands are not for today despite impressive progress in the RF front end. In this field, antennas are still a bottleneck but RF solutions due for release soon have already significantly reduced the number of models required to cover the whole world.
Future of LTE devices
Source: Digiworld by IDATE
Basile CARLE
Senior Consultant Telecom Strategies at IDATE
LTE Global Pricing Strategies
Frédéric PUJOL
Head of the radio technologies & spectrum practice, IDATE
Expectations and forecasts of the future orientations of the mobile broadband market
Through the analysis of global leading telcos LTE pricing strategies, our team of IDATE analysts have identified four main trends happening in Q1 2013: Multi-device connectivity strategies, Emergence of new high-speed data services, A greater and manageable quality of service resulting in new price plans and the apparition of LTE Advanced, a faster and less costly band for operators.
Multi Device Strategies
Introduced by Verizon Wireless through its shared dataplans, not only is it very successful but also represents a huge opportunity to leverage its LTE network in the long term with two growth opportunities:
- Data consumption growth introduced by the incentive of using “big screen” devices such as tablets, laptops and connected TV’s for HD video watching. The more devices there are, the more data will be consumed and it will make more subscribers to upgrade to larger data cap plans
- Multi-platform approach supporting the new ‘content everywhere’ trend and allowing services ubiquity: a Netflix subscriber can watch the beginning of a video on his mobile and finish it on his tablet or laptop, starting where he left off, with a unique account.
LTE major runners strategic positionning
Source: Digiworld by IDATE
High-Speed data services
LTE allows developing new services that require a large data bandwidth and that could not exist with 3G: some already existed with fixed broadband (HD VoD, cloud services) and some are dedicated to mobile usages (Rich Communications Suite and car black box among the latter). Moreover telcos are starting to propose LTE services so as to counter OTT (over the top) services.
These services are either free or available through additional monthly subscription. Moreover, the Evolved Multimedia Broadcast Multicast Service will allow new video services without the need of a specific frequency layer.
A greater and manageable quality of service
Quality of service is the most important LTE innovation as it can be managed from end to end on a mobile network. Classes of priority can be created and managed allowing Swisscom to segment their offer not by data usage but by bandwidth, which stresses the need of consistent quality over the totality of the network. For example when 100 Mbps are advertised clients are less prone to accept irregularities.
LTE Advanced
Korean operators expect to launch LTE-Advanced by mid-2013, this is the new generation of LTE. Its spectral efficiency is four to five times greater than 3G where LTE is only 3 times greater. This implies that the cost per MB will fall for operators and will orient strategies towards higher or ultimately unlimited data caps and rate plans differentiated trough quality of service.
LTE Revenue Forecast (by Region, in million EUR)
Source : Digiworld by IDATE
Frédéric PUJOL
Head of Mobile & Spectrum Practice at IDATE
f.pujol@idate.org
Global LTE forecasts
Frédéric PUJOL
Head of the radio technologies & spectrum practice, IDATE
Deployments stepping up: 916 million subscribers expected in 2017
IDATE provides regular analyses of the main trends shaping the world’s mobile markets: networks, devices and services. Our Mobile team have teamed up to publish the new edition of its special White Paper: “LTE 2013 - Markets & Trends” to coincide with the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona (25-28 February 2013).
LTE is gaining momentum: IDATE predicts that, by 2017, there will be a total of 916 million LTE subscriptions.
• We expect that, by the end of 2013, a significant portion of LTE devices will support both FDD and TDD duplex modes. TD-LTE deployments in India, China and many other countries in the Asia-Pacific, Latin American, and Middle East regions and, to a lesser extent, Europe will fuel this growth.
• We anticipate that more than 80% of LTE devices will also support 3G and, in most cases, 2G in 2014.
• A limited number of LTE devices will support Mobile WiMAX in order to facilitate smooth transition for operators switching to TD-LTE.
LTE subscription by country
LTE subscription by operator
> Download the White paper - LTE 2013: Markets & Trends
Next Gen Access deployment
Roland Montagne
Head of the Telecoms Business Unit at IDATE
Measuring costs for each EU-27 member state to reach the Digital Agenda in Europe
In May 2010, the European Commission adopted its Digital Agenda policy programme. It was one of the first flagship initiatives of the EU 2020 strategy. It sets ambitious targets to provide all European households with ubiquitous coverage of 30 Mbps as a minimum and half of them with a subscription of 100 Mbps by 2020. IDATE has published recently a report providing different possible cost scenarios – with a breakdown by technology and by population density (urban, peri-urban, rural).
Today, some voices are raising concerns that the goals of the Digital Agenda (DA) will not be reached in many Member States as the necessary expenditure is beyond reach, especially in the current European economic situation. This is why this report focuses in particular on the cost of the Digital Agenda in reaching the ambitious goal of coverage of 30 Mbps and 100 Mbps, and further tries to clarify, per country, what it will be. It puts forward a theoretical model with the distinction of various scenarios involving distinct technologies, namely fixed and wireless.
"In several European countries, the rollout of FTTH networks has started and the European Union disposes already of a 40% NGA net coverage amongst all its member states. Indeed, copper local loop will ultimately be replaced by fibre, it being the medium that can guarantee an almost infinite bandwidth capacity for the future. Nevertheless, good quality copper, especially in Western Europe, and the current economic situation, could lead some telcos to consider other alternative scenarios involving VDSL, LTE or even satellite in Ka band", says Roland Montagne, Director of the Telecom Business Unit at IDATE. He adds: "The adoption of a FTTH-oriented scenario by telcos will not only depend on the amount of capex necessary but also on a viable business model. On this, telcos should be innovative not only with the services they propose but also on their pricing approach (tiered pricing) and their strategy regarding smart access."
Deployment costs by scenario
- Four scenarios in different constellations have been modelled, including a full FTTH/B coverage scenario. Depending on the mix of technologies deployed, these scenarios will cost between 51 billion EUR and 229 billion EUR.
- These amounts, whilst certainly substantial, are within the expected range and therefore come as a confirmation of the ambitious nature of the broadband objectives of the DAE.
*50% uptake
NOTE: Scenario names are chosen to reflect main technological characteristics, but do not express a preference for any given
technology to reach the broadband objectives of the Digital Agenda.
90% FTTH/B = 90% FTTH/B only + 10% LTE
Base case = FTTH/B+FTTLA+VDSL2+LTE
Vectoring = FTTH/B+FTTLA+VDSL Vectoring+VDSL2+LTE)
Wireless = LTE+FTTH/B
NGA Costs model
In order to build our theoretical model of the costs of reaching the DA goals, IDATE started by drawing up several assumptions about ‘overlapping’ in each country with the aim of establishing the ‘net’ number of FTTx homes passed, and thus the effective level of NGA coverage. Consolidating this in the EU27 gives a net NGA coverage rate of 41% of European households in late-2011. Among the four fixed NGA architectures considered (FTTH/B, FTTLA+DOCSIS 3.0, FTTN+VDSL and FTTx/LAN), regarding our estimates at that time, FTTH/B accounted for 22%, FTTN+VDSL for 25% and FTTLA+DOCSIS3.0 for 50% of the European NGA coverage.
Using these coverage estimates as a baseline, IDATE modelled the investment required for each of the 27 Member States to reach the broadband objectives of the Commission's DA. We also took into account, nevertheless, for each Member State, the national broadband or ultra-fast broadband plans already launched, with their associated objectives of coverage up to 2020.
We then considered no duplication of infrastructure in our cost model. Indeed, the model's output shows the minimum cost of reaching the DA targets by rolling out one single network per coverage area1.
> For more information about what we do, visit us online at: www.idate.orgwww.idate.org
DigiWorld Summit 2012
"Game Changers: Mobile, Cloud, Big Data"
Opening day of the 34th Summit: The future of the digital economy according to its leaders
This morning IDATE Chairman François Barrault opened the 34th edition of the DigiWorld Summit in Montpellier. The Summit has become one of the must-attend events each year for playmakers in the telecom, Internet, television and video game industries. It will bring together more than 1,200 participants and 130 speakers from over 20 countries around the world.
IDATE and the members of the DigiWorld Institute are putting the spotlight on “Game Changers: Cloud, Mobile, Big Data” for this year’s Summit. The objective of the event is to discuss the factors that will lead to the emergence of the next decade’s digital leaders.
Executives from device and cloud heavyweights as well as content providers and telecom operators will present their views on these subjects over the next two days.
John Chambers, CEO of Cisco, affirms that the pace of innovation today is the fastest it has been in the past 25 years.
Hans Vestberg, CEO of Ericsson, stresses the need to combine a strategy of vertical integration and openness to “capture the innovation of other players.” For Ben Verwaayen, CEO of Alcatel-Lucent, Europe should speed up LTE rollouts despite the economic uncertainties. Qualcomm Chairman Paul Jacobs, riding high on the success of the firm’s technology, which is used in many smartphones and tablets, predicts a “sixth sense, in that everything will be connected around us.
In addition to such distinguished speakers, the DigiWorld Summit is also recognized for its detailed preparation of the themes and the series of sessions based on IDATE analysis. During the opening session the Institute’s experts will each present an overall analysis of their focus sectors. They will highlight the dominant role of three game-changing factors applicable to all the links in the value chain:
- Mobile’s irresistible momentum, with the battle of the OSs and then LTE, which is expected to be central to the new differentiation strategies to break out of the price wars.
- The Cloud, which for IDATE is not limited to externalized enterprise computing (“cloud computing”) but includes application distribution architectures (including for audiovisual content), shaking up traditional roles.
- Big Data, an asset that all players will be looking to capitalize on through real-time applications, aiming to enhance their services and offerings (devices, content, connectivity services, storage and application platforms, etc.).
Three important voices offer a counterpoint to IDATE’s analyses: Ben Verwaayen, the boss of Alcatel-Lucent, Léo Apotheker, former chief of SAP and HP, and Carsten Schloter, CEO of Swisscom. Overall the messages converge, with all three insisting on one point: Europe has a lot going for it. However, these pluses are particularly concentrated in the telecom industry, which is currently suffering multiple ills: the economic situation, its relative disintegration and the constraints of a world where traffic is exploding but applications tend to lean in favor of over-the-top (OTT) players.
The sessions on November 15 will be devoted to sketching a potential next-generation telco. Presenters include Terry Denson, Vice President of Global Strategy for Verizon, Stéphane Roussel, CEO of SFR, Jean-Ludovic Silicani, Chairman of ARCEP. The heads of Ericsson and Orange, Hans Vestberg and Stéphane Richard, will close the debate. Some big names in traditional content (the BBC) and new online platforms (like Netflix) will also be present. A conclusion will be given by players that hold promising futures in platforms with IBM, Amazon, BT and Cisco.
Also note that five executive seminars will be presented on November 14 and 15, on the following topics:
- Impacts on privacy, with the input of Google and CNIL.
- Key issues for next-generation networks: FTTx, LTE, etc.
- Expectations surrounding the rise of smart cities.
- Perspectives related to the concept of smart TV.
- New business models for video gaming.
> Follow live the plenary sessions: Live streaming DWS12 !!!
> More information about our program and our speakers on the website DigiWorld Summit 2012
Radio Spectrum
Frédéric PUJOL
Head of Mobile & Spectrum Practice at IDATE
Finding spectrum for mobile broadband
The continuous explosion of mobile data traffic is fuelling demand for more mobile spectrum, the world over. IDATE has just published the 6th edition of its study “Radio Spectrum” which provides its readers with an overview of major trends in radio spectrum management in Europe, the USA and Asia-Pacific, this report reviews the main issues raised in WRC-12, the regulatory environment, spectrum refarming and new bands, and spectrum valuation. It features the spectrum database with details of the regulatory situation and updates on spectrum auctions.
“The World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC) which is the place for international negotiation of spectrum allocation took place in Geneva in January and February 2012", says Frédéric Pujol, Head of the Mobile & Spectrum practice. He adds: "At WRC-07, the band 790-862 MHz had been allocated to the mobile service in Europe and Africa (ITU Region 1) and was identified for IMT (International Mobile Communications) at worldwide level. The decision of WRC-12 to launch studies for a second Digital Dividend in Region 1 (Europe, Africa) is good news for the mobile broadband sector in Europe. This new frequency band could match with the 700 MHz Digital Dividend identified for the Asia-Pacific region. Harmonisation with other geographical areas would enable significant economies of scale for LTE devices and would facilitate international roaming."
Spectrum trends and critical issues
Regulatory trends
The European Commission together with all Members States will work on the following concrete actions up to 2015: ensuring that at least 1200 MHz spectrum is identified to address the increasing demand for wireless data traffic and that the need for additional harmonised spectrum bands is assessed.
New spectrum sharing schemes should be used in the coming years as they can enhance the overall spectrum efficiency. The FCC and the European Commission are pushing for more spectrum sharing: either through more unlicenced bands or through more sharing of frequency bands between users. Solutions such as Authorised Shared Access (ASA) represent an interesting evolution of the regulatory framework and could accelerate the use of frequency bands with limited harmonisation such as the 2.3 GHz band.
We consider that white space technologies today represent niche markets and that they cannot be used to provide mobile service on a commercial basis in the UHF band. The concept could be extended to other frequency bands where sharing with incumbent users could be easier.
Existing spectrum for mobile broadband
In Western Europe, spectrum allocated to mobile broadband is generally 590 MHz covering multiple harmonised frequency bands: 800 MHz (FDD – 2 x 30 MHz), 900 MHz (FDD - 2x35 MHz), 1800 MHz (FDD - 2x75 MHz), 2100 MHz (FDD - 2x60 MHz), 2100 MHz (TDD - 15+20 MHz), 2600 MHz (FDD - 2x70 MHz), 2600 MHz (TDD - 50 MHz).
In the USA, a total of 413.5 MHz of spectrum is available for mobile use.
Spectrum refarming is accelerating
In order to maximise the use of the scarce resources, more frequency bands are being refarmed in order to be used by the LTE technology and replace 2G or 3G systems. AWS (Advanced Wireless Spectrum – 1.7/2.1 GHz) and 1900 MHz in the USA, 1800 MHz across Europe and Asia-Pacific are being used by LTE. This process will lead to accelerated shut-down of 2G networks, as has been recently seen in South Korea.
Spectrum needs
Regulatory bodies and ministries around the world are looking for freeing spectrum used by public users to provide additional capacity to mobile broadband. The objectives are close to 500 MHz of additional spectrum for mobile broadband in the five coming years. In the USA, the FCC has defined a spectrum deficit of 275 MHz in 2014 based upon its mobile traffic growth estimate.
LTE spectrum fragmentation and the importance of band plans
Spectrum aggregation and Supplemental Downlink (SDL): supplemental downlink uses additional unpaired spectrum to enhance the downlink capability of mobile broadband networks. Mobile operators such as AT&T and Orange are currently investigating SDL as a solution to meet traffic demands.
Digital Dividend
In Japan, the 700 MHz band has been awarded by the Ministry of Communications to KDDI, NTT DOCOMO and eMobile, enabling them to roll out LTE in a sub-1 GHz frequency band.
The Asia-Pacific Telecommunity (APT) has finalised a harmonised band plan for 698-806 MHz for the Region 3 (Asia-Pacific). It is expected to be approved by ITU shortly. As in the APT band plan, 2x45 MHz of spectrum will be available.
The APT band plans include two versions, the first one compatible with Europe and the second one which would allow for worldwide operation.
The allocation of the 800 MHz band is going on in Europe with LTE commercial services expected grow quickly in 2013.
New resources for mobile broadband
New frequency bands are currently being or will be allocated in the years to come to mobile services and IMT technologies. In Europe, the new bands for mobile terrestrial systems, identified during WRC-07, are 450-470 MHz, 790-862 MHz, 2300-2400 MHz and 3400-3600 MHz.
New frequency bands for Mobile Broadband: L-Band, 2.3 GHz, 3.6-3.8 GHz…
- The L-Band (1452 MHz to 1492 MHz) is widely available today across Europe as well as in other such countries as Canada or Brazil and could provide SDL for inter-band carrier aggregation.
- 2.3 GHz: this frequency band is used by TDD networks in Asia and could be used as a supplemental downlink resource in Europe
- 3.4-3.8 GHz: currently used by WiMAX networks which will migrate to TD-LTE.
Spectrum/licences valuation
The latest auctions confirm the trends identified last year with digital dividend spectrum (800 MHz band) sold for EUR 40-80 cents per MHz per pop.
For the 2.6 GHz spectrum, the valuation ranges from EUR 0.2 to 4.6 cents per MHz per pop.
Frédéric PUJOL
Head of Mobile & Spectrum Practice at IDATE
f.pujol@idate.org
> Visit our website for more information on this topic
US mobile services: The new order
Yves Gassot
CEO, IDATE
In a matter of days we have seen several moves get under way that will no doubt have a profound impact on the face of the US mobile market.
It is a market that has been defined most recently by the overwhelming domination of Verizon Wireless (36% market share incomes: 55% Verizon, 45% Vodafone) and AT&T (33% market share), especially when postpaid subscribers, with their higher ARPU and much lower attrition rate, are counted. The top carriers also have a strong lead in LTE rollouts (+10 million subscribers for Verizon and 35% of its traffic).
Behind these two juggernauts lie:
- Sprint (16% market share) mired since its acquisition of Nextel in August 2005 in the migration of its subscribers to the iDen standard and struggling to return to profitability at a time when it must increase its capex in order to obtain a 4G network to compete with the market leaders
- T-Mobile USA (10% market share), subsidiary of Deutsche Telekom
- A gaggle of companies with more limited coverage, though two stand out: MetroPCS (3% market share) and Leap (2%).
This market structure came close to shifting when AT&T and T-Mobile announced a plan to merge in 2011, but the FTC and FCC put the nix on the transaction in December of the same year.
In late September 2012, T-Mobile and MetroPCS announced plans to merge. Sprint, which had more than once expressed an interest in M&A, was expected to respond by taking over Leap or outbidding T-Mobile for MetroPCS, or perhaps waiting until the two operators merged to snap them up together.
But ultimately the bump came from Japan, with Masayoshi Son’s bold investment (+ USD 20 milliards) through Softbank to take control of Sprint. The recapitalization of Sprint will allow it to ramp up its 4G rollout more quickly and increase its stake in Clearwire, which it just did by purchasing Eagle River Holding (MCaw)’s 1.5%, bringing Sprint’s share to 51%. The company (1% US mobile market share) made a name for itself by building a WiMax network at a time when the standard seemed like it could be a viable option to meet the needs of mobile and on-the-go Web users. Sprint, the big cable companies, Intel and Google had all invested in it. But the company has since had to acknowledge the failure of WiMax and the rise of LTE (driven by Verizon Wireless). Despite its debt, the operator had refocused on LTE, opting for TD-LTE technology (which is fairly close to WiMax) to use the 150 MHz it holds in the 2.5 GHz spectrum in many metropolitan areas. With a spectrum crunch looming, this will definitely be another asset for the new Sprint. Note that Softbank is also a proponent of TD-LTE for 4G.
This is a pretty bold move considering the premium Softbank paid, the increase in its debt and the difficult situation Sprint is in. But if it succeeds, it could deal a blow to the near-duopoly of Verizon and AT&T. Their ARPUs—which have been high and remarkably stable over recent years, as rising data revenues offset the erosion of voice income—could take a nosedive, shrinking margins for the two operators.
In the meantime, Deutsche Telekom can continue to bemoan the lost opportunity for its subsidiary to be purchased by AT&T in 2011, for the benefit of the synergies expected in the merger with MetroPCS seems meager indeed compared to the ambition of the new Sprint.
Over the medium term, it will be interesting to see if these new circumstances prove auspicious for the Verizon spinoff some investors would like to see: separating the landline and business services (formerly MCI) from the pure mobile player, which could then be combined with the European leader Vodafone.
But we’re not there yet. In the meantime, revenues from mobile services continue to grow at a rate of 5% to 6% YOY in the US, while in Europe we’re closer to -4%.
Yves GASSOT, CEO
> During the DigiWorld Summit 2012, don't miss the executive seminar "NextGen Networks" on November 14th, and the plenary session "From NGN to Next Gen Telcos" on November 15th.
DigiWorld Summit 2012
Christine BARRE
Responsable DigiWorld Summit, DigiWorld by IDATE
A l’approche du DigiWorld Summit 2012, l’IDATE livre son analyse de la situation de l'économie numérique européenne
A l’occasion d’une conférence de presse organisée à Paris ce jour, le DigiWorld Institute by IDATE a livré son analyse de l’avenir de l’Europe des Télécoms et de la Télévision.
Quelques mois après la publication du DigiWorld Yearbook et quelques semaines avant le DigiWorld Summit, le DigiWorld Institute by IDATE, Institut spécialisé dans le domaine des télécommunications, médias et Internet, livre son analyse de la situation de l'économie numérique européenne à travers la situation exemplaire des secteurs des télécommunications et de l'audiovisuel. Cette conférence a également été l’occasion de présenter le programme du prochain DigiWorld Summit. Alors que la dernière édition du DigiWorld Yearbook avait été l'occasion d'attirer l'attention sur l'accentuation des faiblesses de la zone, le DigiWorld Institute by IDATE revient sur les grands enjeux auxquels l'Europe de la télévision et des télécommunications doit faire face.
Télécoms et Télévision européenne : Le point de basculement ?
Côté Télécoms, Yves Gassot, Directeur Général de l’IDATE, affirme : « Après avoir globalement réussi l'introduction d'une concurrence effective favorable au consommateur et dans une certaine mesure à l'innovation, l'Europe doit prendre en compte la situation inquiétante du secteur ».
Cela se traduit notamment par :
- une récession qui s'accompagne d'une pression sur les marges et l'investissement, à un moment où il faut accélérer les déploiements des réseaux fixes et mobiles à très haut débit et supporter l'explosion des trafics,
- un contexte peu favorable pour définir de nouveaux business models, lesquels sont pourtant indispensables pour répondre aux challenges lancés par des géants de l'Internet,
- une difficulté pour progresser vers un "single European market" tandis que s'accélère la consolidation aux Etats-Unis et que s'affirment des opérateurs de taille mondiale à partir des économies émergentes.
Côté audiovisuel, pour Gilles Fontaine, Directeur Général adjoint de l’IDATE, « ce serait une erreur de sous-estimer les points forts de l'industrie européenne ». En effet, la part de marché des chaînes de télévision et des distributeurs reste élevée alors que la production cinématographique est, dans une certaine mesure, le garant, d'une création autonome originale. Cependant, compte-tenu du poids des studios hollywoodiens, il serait illusoire de vouloir construire ex-nihilo un ou des champion(s) européen(s) des nouveaux services vidéo. La dissociation des droits « à la demande et linéaires » favorisera en effet les services nord-américains. Ce sont les raisons pour lesquelles il apparaît indispensable de favoriser une gestion des fenêtres, intégrée au sein des groupes de télévision dans un contexte où la SVOD est l’outil d’entrée des chaînes en clair sur le marché du péage.
Si les marchés de la télévision vont encore rester nationaux, une certaine internationalisation est cependant possible, voire indispensable. Pour cela, il faudra réviser le rôle respectif des chaînes et des producteurs dans la production de télévision (et non de cinéma). Par exemple, il faudrait également étudier la possibilité de lancer une chaîne jeunesse publique européenne disposant d'une base commune aux différents services publics européens.
DigiWorld Summit 2012 : Quelle place pour l'Europe au moment où l'émergence d'un nouvel ordre économique numérique mondial se met en place ?
Durant cette conférence, François Barrault, Président de l'IDATE, a présenté le programme du prochain DigiWorld Summit 2012. Ce sommet abordera le contexte mondial d'évolution des différents maillons de la chaîne du numérique avec des sessions plénières de haut niveau traitant des Smart Devices, des industries du contenu, des telcos et des plates-formes, des villes numériques,…
Le DigiWorld Summit est un rendez-vous incontournable qui permet de prendre la mesure des enjeux économiques et stratégiques pour les acteurs du secteur. Seront abordés des thèmes clés à travers une série de séminaires portant sur :
- Les Villes numériques
- Les contenus dans le Cloud
- Les réseaux de nouvelle grenaison (fixe et mobile)
- Big Data et protection des données personnelles
Le DigiWorld Summit est également l’occasion de mettre en avant le potentiel exceptionnel du territoire au cœur duquel cette conférence se tient depuis sa création :
- Les jeux vidéo seront à l’honneur durant une journée complète de conférences et de rencontres professionnelles organisées en partenariat avec le Montpellier in Game, événement que Montpellier Agglomération propose pour la troisième année consécutive.
- Les entreprises et start-up innovantes seront mises à avant à l’initiative de La Région Languedoc-Roussillon qui organise des rencontres B2B au travers du Networking by Sud de France Développement
Le DigiWorld Summit en bref
- Plus de 1400 participants attendus
- Plus de 130 intervenants
- Les présentations des analyses des consultants de l’IDATE
- Plus de 20 nationalités représentées
- Des sessions plénières de très haut niveau et 5 séminaires et conférences spécialisés
- Une sélection d'une trentaine d'exposants proposant des démonstrations et présentant leurs innovations
De très nombreuses occasions de networking durant une soirée d’ouverture à l'Opéra Comédie et une soirée de gala exceptionnelle sur le site d'IBM
> Découvrez le nouveau site internet du DigiWorld Summit 2012
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