11Apr/140

How to meet the broadband needs 
of public safety users?

Frédéric Pujol, Head of the radio technologies & spectrum practice, IDATE

Frédéric Pujol
Head of the radio technologies and spectrum practice, Idate

 

 

In its latest report, part of the Spectrum service, IDATE details existing spectrum allocation for public safety services. It presents the requirements for broadband services and the corresponding spectrum needs of public safety users. The use of commercial LTE networks by public safety users is analyzed and the mobile broadband strategies for PPDR players are evaluated.

Public protection and disaster relief (PPDR) is the general designation given to a range of public safety services broken down into: Day-to-day operations (category ‘PP1’) or routine operations; large emergency and/or public events (category ‘PP2’) for larger events; and disaster relief (category ‘DR’) caused by either natural of human activity. PPDR is not a commercial service.

  • Current non-broadband PPDR systems mainly use the 400 MHz and the 700-800 bands worldwide. Spectrum above 1 GHz supports also a variety of PPDR operations for temporary use only.
  • Regarding spectrum requirements, PPDR users face the challenge of different interests within countries whether or not spectrum should be reserved for PPDR applications.
  • Broadband-dedicated PPDR spectrum is expected to be allocated mostly in the 700 MHz with complementary frequencies below 1 GHz for specific countries (800 MHz) and above 1 GHz (1.4 to 5 GHz frequencies). At 700 MHz, coexistence is mainly with television broadcasting/digital TV and commercial broadband networks in Europe.
  • According to PPDR user groups, a minimum of 2 x 10 MHz for broadband PPDR spectrum should be reserved, similar to what was allocated in the USA. Additional country specific spectrum needs to be calculated.
  • The question of allocating broadband PPDR spectrum through auctions is also being debated.

PPDR services can be provided through dedicated PPDR systems or commercial cellular networks.

  • The challenge is to enhance the LTE and LTE-Advanced standards to meet PPDR requirements. However, in the short term, extended LTE and LTE-Advanced capabilities and standards (Direct Mode, Proximity Services and Group Communications System Enablers, resilience and VoLTE) will not be in operation.
  • Dynamic use of shared broadband PPDR spectrum with predictable QoS is also a key potential capability considered through Temporary Licensed Access (LSA/ASA).

In conclusion, we have identified the following options for PPDR players wishing to get access to mobile broadband capabilities :

1.    Build and run an own dedicated broadband PPDR network
2.    Use a dedicated broadband PPDR network run by a private operator
3.    Use a narrow band PPDR network + MVNO agreement for broadband services
4.    Use a dedicated commercial mobile network or Use a standard commercial mobile network
5.    Use a dedicated commercial mobile network which operates specific PPDR spectrum

Potential candidate bands for broadband PPDR spectrum by region

tableau-Potential-candidate-bands-for-broadband-PPDR-spectrum-by-region

Source: IDATE

More information about "Public Safety Report" study.

13Feb/140

Edito by Yves Gassot

GASSOT Yves
 
Yves Gassot

CEO, IDATE


Round-up for 2014

It’s hard, in the first editorial of the year, to avoid laying out the overriding themes that we expect to see play out over the next twelve months. But it is still too early for me to deliver a complete summary of the year gone by, which has become the much-anticipated task of our DigiWorld Yearbook.
You will also need to wait until the next Executive Note to find out the central topic selected for this year’s DigiWorld Summit (but you can already mark your calendars for November 18, 19 and 20).

What I can share with you, however, is our belief in the profound relevance of certain issues, by summarising three topics that we have chosen to explore in this year’s Collaborative Research Programme (CRP 2014). These are think tanks open to existing IDATE member companies and those wanting to join, who will work for close to a year with a dedicated team of our analysts on the following subjects:

Telecoms USA: model or counter-model?

Following thorough on the two projects carried out in Brussels in 2012 and 2013 on telcos’ new business models, and the new European policy options being considered, we will work to deepen our understanding of the specific points that explain the different directions being taken on either side of the Atlantic.

The internet of things: will everything be connected?

We are going to analyse the true potential of the internet of things, by taking account of the developments that need to occur in the technical environment, difficulties in generating income from both consumer objects and industry applications and, finally, governance and personal data ownership issues, with tie-ins to our 2013 think tank on personal data

What will tomorrow’s TV and video networks look like?

Here we are building on the 2013 Video as a Service think tank by exploring issues surrounding the future of television and video distribution networks, and by analysing long-term scenarios for the delivery of TV and video products, taking particular account of the cooperation and convergence between networks, i.e. hybridisation involving both fixed and cellular networks

Other topics may be added to the CRP. For instance, we are contemplating an ambitious project that aims to define what could be a comprehensive, metropolitan area-scale digital investment strategy, going beyond marketing clichés and segmented vertical approaches.

I can also tell you that the next issue of Communications & Strategies (DigiWorld Economic journal) will be published in March, and is shaping up to be a promising one. It will be devoted to scoring Europe’s telecommunications sector, and examining potentially clashing policies.
And, finally, a reminder that the best way to delve into the subjects that are consuming our teams is though the reports that we publish every month as part of our annual Market Research programme.

14Jan/140

M2M: market finally taking off

ROPERT Samuel

 

Samuel ROPERT
Lead Analyst, IDATE

 

M2M is enjoying swift growth of roughly 30% in volume and over 10% in revenue, with the market to reach €40 billion in 2017

The 6th edition of IDATE’s M2M Market report, covering 2013-2017, reveals that a healthy growth rate has finally taken hold in this promising but, up until recently, underperforming market. This performance is being spurred by increased use within the main areas of application (automotive, consumer electronics and utilities) and is expected to accelerate even further over the next five years as M2M spreads to other sectors of activity.

The M2M market (Reported devoted to M2M applications, excluding satellite M2M) represented 175 million modules worldwide in 2013, generating €24.2 billion in revenue, which translates in to an annual growth rate of 31% in volume and 11% in revenue. The bulk of revenue was generated by software and IT developments which together accounted for two-thirds of total market value.

IDATE forecasts that global M2M market volume will grow by an average of close to 30% annually between now and 2017, which corresponds to 470 million modules, while market revenue will climb by 13% a year on average, to reach €40 billion.

Europe will be the biggest market in terms of revenue, ahead of North America, even if Asia-Pacific will continue to dominate in terms of volume. At the end of 2013, China rose to the number one spot in number of cellular M2M modules installed, overtaking the United States.

World M2M cellular market, 2013-2017

Million of modules                                         Revenues (billion EUR)
M2M cellular market

Source: IDATE, December 2013

Over the next few years, the M2M market’s growth will be shaped by three key verticals: automotive, consumer electronics and utilities

While they will theoretically drive the market, certain barriers could nevertheless obstruct their growth. Several long-awaited applications in these key markets have been repeatedly delayed, such as Europe’s eCall regulation and large-scale rollouts by utilities. Added to which certain technical choices can have a tremendous impact on the market, a good example being smart meters connected to the cellular network through a concentrator that would allow large utility companies to further increase their already massive negotiating clout to drive down per-unit prices. But utilities will dominate the M2M market in 2017 in terms of module numbers, all technologies combined. The rise of M2M in consumer electronics will have a major impact on the market as a whole, especially on the number of active modules. Because it is a de facto mass market, consumer electronics will represent the largest number of modules, all technologies combined.

M2M players seeking business opportunity beyond their core expertise

The market offers M2M application providers with very attractive opportunities, despite the already relatively low and declining average revenue per user (ARPU). The projects have a long lifespan, very low churn rates and average contracts representing several thousand SIM cards. Connectivity alone is expected to represent €10 billion worldwide in 2017, and more than 3% of European telcos’ mobile data revenue. MVNOs are being pushed out of the market and so repositioning themselves as platform providers, while module providers will have to adapt to a market where unit prices are in free fall. Meanwhile, the top telcos are exploring new cloud and big data services that would allow them to find solid and sustainable new business opportunities.

This comprehensive M2M report will be followed up over the coming months with other reports with a specific end use or vertical focus. For example, just after Mobile World Congress, there will be a very topical report on connected cars.

27Nov/13Off

[CR] Game Summit – DigiWorld Summit

DigiWorld Summit 2013 - The digital gold mines

Audrey GREL
Consultant at IDATE

Marché du jeu vidéo: tendances et enjeux

Selon l'IDATE, le marché mondial du jeu vidéo (marché des équipements compris) passera de 53.9 milliards EUR en 2013 à 82.1 milliards EUR en 2017 (+11.1% en moyenne par an). Deux raisons expliquent cette dynamique :

• début des cycles de vie des dernières générations de consoles portables et de consoles de salon;

• progression remarquable des segments de jeux sur terminaux nomades et de jeux en ligne.

La Game Summit Conference 2013, qui s'est tenue le 21 novembre dernier à Montpellier, a permis de dessiner les différentes tendances auxquelles devra faire face les différents segments de marché dans les prochaines années.

Retrouvez le programme et les intervenants du séminaire Game Summit Conference

Les consoles de salon dans la tourmente

L'IDATE estime que la nouvelle génération de consoles devrait connaître un rythme de croissance moins important que celui observé pour la précédente génération. Les consoles subissent en effet une concurrence de plus en plus vive issue des segments du jeu nomade et du jeu en ligne.

Évolution du marché des consoles de salon, 2001-2017 (millions EUR)

Source : IDATE d’après Industrie - Etude multiclients "Marché mondial du jeu vidéo" – Novembre 2013

Les consoles de salon font aujourd'hui face à des défis de taille pour s'adapter aux nouveaux usages des joueurs:

Financer davantage de jeux indépendants: La situation actuelle du jeu sur consoles de salon est comparable à celle que connut l'industrie du cinéma dans les années 80. Ce fut l'époque où le cinéma indépendant commença à s'imposer sur le marché face aux grands studios hollywoodiens, ces derniers n'ayant ainsi d'autre choix que de se lancer à leur tour dans la production de films indépendants. Pour Alexis JOLIS DESAUTELS, Game Director, Ubisoft Montréal, il est indispensable pour le jeu vidéo sur consoles de salon de financer davantage de jeux indépendants en sus des blockbusters, au risque de s'asphyxier.

Faire face à un environnement déflationniste: De par l'influence du segment du jeu sur mobile, les joueurs sont aujourd'hui familiarisés avec l'idée que les jeux vidéo peuvent être acquis gratuitement ou pour des sommes très peu élevées. Comment arriver dans cet environnement à ce que le consommateur perçoive la valeur d'un jeu AAA à 70 EUR? Il faut pour cela que les jeux sur consoles puissent durer en moyenne un an et demi. Il s'agit là d'un enjeu majeur de développement. "Challenge is how to create perceived value" (Alexis JOLIS DESAUTELS, Game Director, Ubisoft Montréal). Pour l'IDATE, le jeu sur consoles de salon doit également songer à faire évoluer son modèle économique pour se diriger vers le Free2Play.

Intégrer des composantes sociales: Le succès du jeu social montre l'intérêt des joueurs à jouer avec d'autres personnes. Aujourd'hui, 60% des joueurs jouent avec des personnes qu'ils connaissent. Il apparaît donc crucial aujourd'hui que les consoles de salon intègrent des composantes sociales.

Ne pas rester uniquement des appareils statiques sous le téléviseur: La prééminence des tablettes et des smartphones, le succès du jeu nomade, témoignent de l'intérêt des joueurs pour les appareils portables. Les joueurs veulent aujourd'hui payer pour quelque chose auquel ils peuvent accéder partout. Dans ce contexte, les consoles de salon doivent évoluer pour ne pas rester uniquement des appareils statiques sous le téléviseur. Pour l'IDATE, l'ubiquité offre là des perspectives intéressantes.

Enjeux économiques et technologiques des jeux ubiquitaires

Un jeu ubiquitaire offre la possibilité à un joueur de vivre une expérience ludique en continu sur plusieurs plateformes. Sur les différentes plateformes, les expériences peuvent être substituables ou complémentaires.

Caractéristiques des jeux ubiquitaires

Source : IDATE - 2013

Dans les jeux proposant des expériences substituables d'une plateforme à une autre, gameplay et business model sont répliqués à l'identique sur les différentes plateformes. La prochaine étape pour les éditeurs sera de les adapter aux spécificités de chaque plateforme ainsi qu'aux comportements des joueurs, qui s'avèrent différents d'une plateforme à une autre. Par exemple, Scimob, éditeur du jeu 94 secondes, a remarqué que les joueurs jouaient plus longtemps sur tablette que sur smartphone, et pense monétiser ce comportement en ajoutant un système d'attente sur tablette.

Dans les jeux ubiquitaires offrant des expériences complémentaires d'une plateforme à une autre, les applications "compagnon" peuvent être utilisées de manière synchrone ou asynchrone au jeu "principal". La synchronisation en temps réel laisse présager un fort potentiel ludique, néanmoins des progrès technologiques restent encore à faire afin de résoudre les problèmes de latence rencontrés aujourd'hui.

TV connectée et second écran: le potentiel du jeu vidéo comme outil d'engagement du téléspectateur dans les programmes audiovisuels

De plus en plus, les téléspectateurs utilisent un ou plusieurs écrans supplémentaires tout en regardant la télévision: ordinateurs, smartphones et tablettes, mais également liseuses numériques ou consoles de jeu. Que font-ils sur les seconds écrans? 53% effectuent des activités qui ne sont pas relatives aux programmes diffusés à la télévision: consultation de mails, recherche d'informations diverses, etc. Les 47% restants réalisent des tâches en relation directe avec le programme diffusé: recherche d'informations sur les acteurs, recherches d'informations relatives au programme, commentaires sur les réseaux sociaux, etc.

Part des téléspectateurs effectuant les activités considérées sur leur second écran

Source: The NPD Group, 2013

L'enjeu pour les chaînes de télévision est d'arriver à concevoir des interactions 2nd écran engageantes avec leurs programmes télévisuels, afin de préserver l'attention de leurs téléspectateurs et in fine leurs revenus publicitaires.

Selon Dean FOX, CEO, ScreenAngels, le jeu vidéo serait tout à fait à même de proposer ce type d'application: "Who can design and develop synchronized, multiscreen, interactive programming for TV and the second screen? We can". Il évoque à titre d'exemple le jeu Psychic Detective (EA), dans lequel le joueur doit mener une enquête policière. Associé à une série policière télévisuelle, ce type de jeu serait à même d'encourager le téléspectateur à suivre avec encore plus d'attention la série.

L'importance des analytics pour le développement des jeux en ligne et des jeux nomades

Dans le secteur du jeu en ligne et du jeu nomade, des outils spécifiques comme Flurry Analytics permettent de recueillir des statistiques sur le comportement des joueurs. Pour un éditeur/développeur, l'intérêt est de pouvoir comprendre le comportement des joueurs, de valider/corriger ses choix de développement rapidement ou encore de détecter les éventuelles frictions dans le jeu. Pour un éditeur/développeur, il est notamment intéressant de connaître: le comportement de l'ensemble des joueurs, exception faite de ceux nouvellement arrivés; le comportement des joueurs qui viennent de quitter le jeu et qui ne sont plus revenus; le comportement des joueurs-payeurs. Ainsi par ce biais, les joueurs font également partie du processus de développement d'un jeu.

DigiWorld Summit - du 19 au 21 Novembre 2013

Retrouvez les médias enrichis produits pendant la conférence :

27Nov/13Off

[CR] NGN Funding – DigiWorld Summit 2013

DigiWorld Summit 2013 - The digital gold mines

Thomas CALDIRONI

Consultant at IDATE

Réseaux Très Haut Débit et intervention publique

Financement dréseaux Très Haut Débit - Articulation acteurs publics/privés

En France depuis 2004 et la loi pour la confiance dans l'économie numérique, mais aussi à l'étranger, l'intervention publique dans les réseaux Haut et Très Haut Débit est une réalité avec un impact direct sur l'aménagement numérique des territoires, mais également sur la création d'activités et d'emplois. Ces interventions publiques ont pris des formes différentes afin de permettre de garantir une bonne articulation entre investissements privés et intervention publique.

Retrouvez le programme et les intervenants du séminaire NGN Funding

L'intervention publique est évidemment incontournable pour aménager en très haut débit les territoires. Le THD par la seule action du marché, n'impacte que les zones denses et moyennement denses. Les zones moins denses et rurales sont délaissées par les opérateurs privés, légitimement vu l'absence de rentabilité, accentuant ainsi la "fracture numérique".

Le déploiement des réseaux à très haut débit est une véritable source de croissance pour l'ensemble de l'économie avec à la clé la création de plusieurs milliers d'emplois. En ce sens, les acteurs publics ne peuvent être absents de ces infrastructures qui sont essentielles pour le 21ième siècle au même titre que l'ont été les réseaux d'électricité ou de transport pour le 20ième siècle.

Il s'agit en effet d'abord d'emplois directs pour construire et exploiter ces réseaux, avec des emplois non délocalisables. Mais au-delà des emplois directs, il s'agit aussi d'emplois indirects, du fait de l'accroissement de compétitivité issu de ces réseaux et qui va bénéficier à l'ensemble des filières économiques et du fait aussi des nouveaux services et usages du numérique qui vont se développer.

perspectives THD en France by IDATE & FiRiP

Source :Synthèse de l’Observatoire des entreprises intervenant dans les Réseaux d’Initiative Publique (RIP) – Enquête FIRIP / IDATE

Les collectivités locales en France ont pris conscience des enjeux liés au THD pour leurs territoires. Les Schémas Directeurs Territoriaux d'Aménagement Numérique (SDTAN), portent désormais sur 98 départements, soit la quasi-totalité du territoire national. Ces SDTAN permettent une bonne articulation entre les déploiements privés ciblant les zones très denses ou moyennement denses et l'intervention publique centrée sur les zones peu denses.

Les faits

• L'intervention publique est indispensable pour le déploiement du Très Haut Débit ;
• Le déploiement de la fibre optique public et privé génère des emplois directs non délocalisables et des emplois indirects ;
• Le partenariat entre le public et le privé est nécessaire pour le développement du Très Haut Débit ;

Les citations

"Est-ce que le pari du Très Haut Débit ne vaut pas la peine d'être tenté ?" Pierre-Michel Attali, IDATE

• "Les RIP départementaux et régionaux ont permis le déploiement de 373 000 prises FTTH, le dégroupage de 828 000 prises ADSL, de raccorder en fibre optique 2 500 ZA, ainsi que de rendre raccordable en fibre optique 9 000 sites publics" Christophe Genter, Caisse des dépôts et Consignation

"Les RIP ont permis la création de 3 000 emplois directs, non délocalisables mais exportables. En 2012, les entreprises de la filière RIP ont généré un chiffre d'affaire de 1.1 milliards d'euros" Etienne Dugas, FIRIP

"La qualité du partenariat public / privé permet de faciliter le déploiement du FTTH sur l'ensemble des territoires" Rachid Adda, Conseil Général Val d'Oise

" Market operators continue to invest around 15 bn annually for fixed network roll-outs in Europe" Jussi Hatonen, European Investment Bank

"Le marché des RIP est très actif en France, mais pour assurer la réussite des RIP, il faut que les collectivités soient maître de leurs réseaux grâce notamment au lancement de services activés" David Elfassy, Altitude infrastructure

"La fibre optique est une infrastructure essentielle du 21ième siècle au même titre que l'électricité au 20ème siècle " Pierre-Eric Saint-André, Axione

"En France, plus de 300 000 foyers n'ont pas accès à internet : dès à présent, le satellite propose des solutions économiques, simples et performantes" Philippe Baudrier, Eutelsat

"Est-ce que le pari du Très Haut Débit ne vaut pas la peine d'être tenté ?" Pierre-Michel Attali, IDATE

"Les RIP départementaux et régionaux ont permis le déploiement de 373 000 prises FTTH, le dégroupage de 828 000 prises ADSL, de raccorder en fibre optique 2 500 ZA, ainsi que de rendre raccordable en fibre optique 9 000 sites publics" Christophe Genter, Caisse des dépôts et Consignation

"Les RIP ont permis la création de 3 000 emplois directs, non délocalisables mais exportables. En 2012, les entreprises de la filière RIP ont généré un chiffre d'affaire de 1.1 milliards d'euros" Etienne Dugas, FIRIP

"La qualité du partenariat public / privé permet de faciliter le déploiement du FTTH sur l'ensemble des territoires" Rachid Adda, Conseil Général Val d'Oise

" Market operators continue to invest around 15 bn annually for fixed network roll-outs in Europe" Jussi Hatonen, European Investment Bank

"Le marché des RIP est très actif en France, mais pour assurer la réussite des RIP, il faut que les collectivités soient maître de leurs réseaux grâce notamment au lancement de services activés" David Elfassy, Altitude infrastructure

"La fibre optique est une infrastructure essentielle du 21ième siècle au même titre que l'électricité au 20ème siècle" Pierre-Eric Saint-André, Axione

"En France, plus de 300 000 foyers n'ont pas accès à internet : dès à présent, le satellite propose des solutions économiques, simples et performantes" Philippe Baudrier, Eutelsat

A propos

Pierre Michel Attali et les consultants de l’unité Développement de l'IDATE accompagnent les collectivités locales (Régions, Départements, Agglomérations, Villes) dans leur réflexion stratégique pour la mise en œuvre des Technologies de l'Information sur leurs territoires, au travers de projets de type schéma directeur de haut et très haut débit et de missions d'assistance à maîtrise d'ouvrage pour le déploiement opérationnel des réseaux.

L’unité Développement de l'IDATE a une expertise reconnue auprès des collectivités et des pouvoirs publics locaux et nationaux. Les consultants interviennent sur l’ensemble des problématiques numériques en offrant une palette de prestations répondant aux attentes des clients de l'IDATE.

DigiWorld Summit - du 19 au 21 Novembre 2013

Retrouvez les médias enrichis produits pendant la conférence :

15Nov/13Off

DigiWorld Summit – Digital Money

DigiWorld Summit 2013 - The digital gold mines

Fixed and Mobile Payment: so many solutions, markets, players… and opportunities?

OTT players and telcos have been involved in the payment market for several years already, having designed their own payment systems. Most OTT players have an internal payment system allowing users to pay for virtual or physical goods directly on their platform. Telcos have developed carrier billing services that allow users to pay through their phone bill.

Discover Digital Money plenary session speakers!

DigiWorld Summit 2013 plenary session speakers

New in-store payment systems progressively introduced

The in-store payment market is still led by ‘plastic’ payment cards and cash payments, but new payment systems are progressively being introduced at the point-of-sale: NFC mobile payment, barcode or QR code mobile payment or payment with a mobile bank account, the latter in developing countries.

NFC mobile payment: OTT vs Telcos

As for NFC mobile payment services, OTT players and telcos are currently involved in a fierce battle. On the one hand, the OTT players are providing services on their own, or with a limited number of partners, avoiding banks and telcos (and thus obviating intermediate costs). Telcos, on the other hand, are setting up partnerships with banks and other telcos to provide a unique telco mobile payment application.

The mobile and online payment market
DigiWorld Summit - Data Monetization

Source: IDATE

Who is really likely to capture most of the value?

The business model of NFC-payment application is mainly advantageous to banks and payment systems, and is neither a gold mine for telcos, nor OTT players. In fact, these players may generate more revenue from services associated with the payment process than with payment itself; services such as loyalty programmes, couponing systems or transportation.Integrating these services on a ‘mobile wallet’ may generate revenue from, for instance, retailers or consumer brands. However, the need for partnerships, together with the need to design user-friendly applications integrating multi-brand couponing and loyalty programmes, presents a challenge.

DigiWorld Summit - Digital money Plenary Session (Nov.21 - 2:30pm)

More information about sessions, speakers, sponsors, partners and associate events on the DigiWorld Summit dedicated website:

DigiWorld Summit 2013 Website

12Nov/13Off

DigiWorld Summit – Digital Malls

DigiWorld Summit 2013 - The digital gold mines

Who will manage the “digital malls”?

The explosion in mobile Internet has been accompanied by the emergence of relatively distinct ecosystems that can be likened to 2-sided platforms. These exploit the related benefits of their potential to appeal both to Internet users and to providers of applications, content and products.

Discover Digital malls plenary session speakers!

DigiWorld Summit 2013 plenary session speakers

New players pursuing platform strategies

However, beyond the well-known models of mobile Internet giants such as Appstore and Google Play, other players are also pursuing platform strategies:

    Consumer electronics manufacturers are now producing a wide range of screen types (from smartphones to ultra High Definition TVs and tablets);

    Specialist pure players in the music, video and video games market (this may also soon extend to professional software as a result of possible polarisation caused by the Software as a Service (SaaS) model);

    A limited number of e-commerce giants;

    Social networks have to offer a range of internal applications and services to maximise connection time and also have platform strategies that are geared towards application providers;

    Telephone operators are moving beyond multi-play bundles to create an ecosystem that is trusted by both subscribers and providers.

DigiWorld Summit - Breakdown of the global video market

Source: docomo with IDATE's comments

Very different digital malls models

These models are very different. For some (such as Apple), content aggregation is primarily a means of selling smart devices; for others (such as Netflix), it lies at the heart of their business model, adds value to advertising deals (Facebook), helps them to stand out on the access market and combat customer churn (telephone operators).

Two main questions debated during the Digital malls session

The debate proposed for the ‘Digital Malls’ session could ultimately be structured around two main questions:

Which ecosystems seem best prepared for surviving and making their mark in polarising online consumers and applications?

To what extent is this way of structuring online traffic and services around more or less closed ecosystems linked to the development of the Internet (including, for example, work being done around HTML5)?

DigiWorld Summit - Digital malls Plenary Session (Nov. 21 - 9:00am)

More information about sessions, speakers, sponsors, partners and associate events on the DigiWorld Summit dedicated website:

DigiWorld Summit 2013 Website

2Jul/13Off

Next Gen Networks : reaching the DAE

CHAILLOU_ValérieValérie CHAILLOU

Head of Research, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE


Deployment costs & access market revenue in Europe

The goals set by the European Commission for ultra-fast broadband (UFB) are ambitious. By 2020, they aim to provide all European households with ubiquitous coverage of 30 Mbps and 50% of households with 100 Mbps access.

Cost of NGN deployment for reaching the goals of the DAE

NGN deployments are underway in all countries of the European Union but are progressing at very different rates from one country to the other. Some governments have created national programs that lay down their own goals to try and accelerate deployments, through both private operators and public players. IDATE has published a report in which NGN deployment costs have been modeled according to various scenarios. We will look closely at three of these: the "Base Case" scenario, which considers a gradual evolution of current NGN access; the "Vectoring" scenario, which anticipates improvements in copper-based technologies to reach the speeds laid out by the DAE; and the "FTTH" scenario, in which FTTH/B would be deployed on a massive scale and would provide the most future-proof performance in terms of speed. This last scenario is itself analyzed according to two different options (90% or 100% FTTH coverage), which lead to significantly different costs. The cumulative costs of these scenarios between 2011 and 2020 range from 71 to 230 billion EUR.

Cost comparison of NGN deployment scenarios en Europe

Total cost and cost per capita for next gen networks deployment in Europe

Source: IDATE

Revenues tied to the UFB access market

In parallel, IDATE has also conducted a study to evaluate the value of the UFB access market. This study is based on a thorough analysis of UFB services offered by key players in markets that represent different degrees of UFB maturity. This analysis allows us to identify different types of delivery model that may include one or more goals (maintaining positioning, increasing ARPU, reducing churn, unbundling withdrawal, etc.). The commercial positioning of operators will thus match a given delivery type that will depend on the level of competition, in particular. From there, it is possible to determine what the trends will be in terms of UFB ARPU over the coming years and thus assess one of the two key variables of access revenue. The other variable is the number of UFB subscribers, which should continue to grow relatively steadily through 2020 if we take all technologies into account. According to our estimates, the UFB access market is expected to reach 48 billion EUR by 2020.

Costs vs. revenues: Which scenario should we prioritize?

Despite some very interesting revenue potential (combined revenues exceed the cost of the most expensive scenario by 2020), the FTTH scenario is not really feasible (regardless of the coverage option considered) because cable operators—whose infrastructures offer faster speeds, are less expensive to upgrade and offer very good performance—will continue to play a major role in this market. The Base Case scenario seems to be a more feasible option in that it represents a continuation of what currently exists, namely a combination of technologies and accelerating deployment. However, it also presents risks, particularly the possibility of slow migration of broadband subscribers to UFB. Whichever scenario is implemented, operators will still need to invest significantly in deployment while reserving some investment for generating demand, without which their expected revenues cannot be achieved.

This analysis is an extract from our FTTx market insight which we propose within our ongoing monitoring of the worldwide FTTx market.

17Jun/13Off

Edito by Yves Gassot

GASSOT YvesYves Gassot

CEO, IDATE

Spectrum Policy: property or commons?

 

Without having an overarching goal, we will attempt to give an idea of the diversity and complexity of the topics involving spectrum.

 

The high-speed internet’s switch to wireless only serves to underscore how scare spectrum really is. Although it is true that considerable progress has been made over the past several years in terms of network design (multiplication of increasingly small cells), use of higher and higher frequencies, in coding, modulation and using spectrum efficiently)… all this is apparently not enough to make it possible to meet growing demand.

 

The "second digital dividend"

We’ll start with what is often referred to as the “second digital dividend”. In Europe, the first one provided an opportunity to redistribute a portion of TV frequencies in the 800 MHz band to cellular telecommunications (2x30 MHz for the launch of LTE), while increasing the selection of channels.
Today, following decision made at the 2012 World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC-12) to start opening the 700 MHz band up to mobile services in 2015, we expect to see yet another wrestling match between the TV and telecom sectors. It seems highly unlikely that we can continue to have as many digital terrestrial channels as we do now while also switching them up to new formats (i.e. ultra HD and 3D).

Of course the issues are not the same in countries like the UK or France – where terrestrial TV will remain the only universal free to air network for some time to come, and where DTT has even enjoyed a certain revival – and Germany – where terrestrial is a very minor consideration in a great many Länder. Also worth mentioning are the FCC’s incentive auctions, giving broadcasters who relinquish spectrum usage rights the opportunity to share in the profits of subsequent reverse auctions.

First and second Digital Dividend worldwide

First and second Digital Dividend worldwide

Source: IDATE

 

The irony is that video accounts for a huge portion of the wireless internet’s traffic. Of course most of these streams are not live TV programming, but rather time-shifted viewing. Still, this is making cellcos and their providers come up with asymmetrical systems that provide additional downstream capacity. Qualcomm recently demonstrated an option called SDL (Supplemental Downlink) that makes it possible to beef up the downlink by employing unpaired spectrum, i.e. unused frequencies from other bands. There is also the idea of reserving unused TDD frequencies for a video-centric LTE network, while the MBMS protocol will endow 4G with multicasting capabilities close to those of a broadcast network.

Lastly, in the rivalry between telcos and TV channels, some are saying that the most useful reform may be to assign the frequencies allocated to TV not to the stations but to broadcasting service operators (e.g. pay-TV providers), to make the terrestrial network “unspecial” and marry it with telecom networks.

In France, the President has got ahead of himself and promised €3 billion from telcos for spectrum allocations in the 700 MHz band between now and 2016. Given the relatively disappointing outcome for the public treasuries in the UK and Australia recently, the French government’s target sum is by no means a sure thing. For even if broadcasters do have something to worry about, telcos, paradoxically, will have their bid to meet capex and cash flow objectives further complicated by the outlay.

Reasons for refarming GSM and 3G frequencies

The performances enabled by 4G and market competition are pushing vendors and regulators to put spectrum refarming into place much sooner than expected – allowing GSM and 3G frequencies to be reallocated to LTE. As we saw in the UK and in France, this will not occur without causing some serious regulatory issues if refarming was not explicitly planned for in LTE spectrum auctions. The no doubt cogent process that consists of assigning frequencies and leaving it up to telcos to choose the most appropriate technology to use, brings a profound change to the spectrum market, to setting reference prices, roadmaps, etc. Do most people know that in some countries frequencies are awarded for an indefinite period of time (the UK), whereas others issue only 15 to 20-year licences?

Television and security willing to have access to hi-speed frequencies

But television is not the only industry that will need to protect its growing requirements from the high-speed wireless internet. Civilian and military security services do not want to remain confined to narrowband radio systems, and are asking to be assigned high-speed data transmission capabilities. Here, the European approach is further complicated by the different frequency bands used. If homeland security services do have legitimate arguments underpinning their demand to upgrade their systems to broadband, their financial resources are limited by the state of public finances, plus their needs are often intermittent, occurring largely during times of crisis.

Hence the idea – and a multifaceted subject of debate in the arena of spectrum policy – of having applications like homeland security share certain frequencies with commercial services that telcos market to consumers. These shared licences would become a credible solution thanks to the progress made in cognitive radio: devices become agile and can listen before transmitting, query databases on operating restrictions and select available frequencies…

White space: frequency plans designed for TV broadcasting all contain white spaces. Hence the FCC’s work over the past several years to find additional resources for licence-free spectrum. These are the resources that allowed Wi-Fi and Bluetooth to flourish, and there are many who believe that this is the way of the future, and these solutions must be give more spectrum.

European Spectrum Policy

All of these topics are being discussed by a great many bodies. Europeans chiefly employ CEPT (European Conference of Postal and Telecommunications Administrations) to have a single voice in the ITU. But the outcome is not always entirely satisfying. One need only look at the huge variety of terms and conditions surrounding 4G rollouts – in terms of roadmap, frequencies, specs, sums paid at auction – in the different EU markets. Viviane Reding tried unsuccessfully to have a portion of spectrum management handed over to the Commission. And the idea coming out of Brussels today is to achieve convergent roadmaps across the EU, as realistically as possible, by anticipating forthcoming issues.

Digiworld by IDATE Publications

Just published:

 

Digiworld Yearbook 2013 (May 2013)

Innovation searching for the digital gold mines

This latest DigiWorld Yearbook provides you, as always, with reference data and the analyses of IDATE experts of the most vital trends on the markets of telecoms, the Internet and digital media.

The 700 MHz frequency band (June 2013)

This insight focus on the adoption of the APAC plan for the 700 MHz plan. Will this frequency band become an harmonised one? Will Europe adopt this plan and benefit from the device ecosystem? Which timescale?

 

Soon published:

 

DigiWorld Economic Journal: C&S No.90, 2nd quarter 2013(June 2013)

The radio spectrum: A shift in paradigms?

Edited by J. Scott MARCUS, Gérard POGOREL & Frédéric PUJOL
Demand for the use of the radio spectrum is constantly and rapidly growing, not only as a means of carrying Internet traffic, but also for new or expanding use by the military, public protection and disaster relief, at the same time that more traditional applications such as aeronautical, maritime, and radio astronomy remain. Is spectrum policy entering a trackless wilderness, or can a new direction and a new set of paradigms be expected to emerge?

two exclusive interviews :

- Gilles BRÉGANT, CEO of ANFR (French national spectrum agency)

- Paul E. JACOBS, Qualcomm's Chairman & CEO Read the interview

Filed under: Internet, LTE, Mobile, Telecom 1 Comment
10Jun/13Off

The state of the digital world in figures

Interview with Didier Pouillot, Digiworld Yearbook project manager

Interview published in weekly letter from ARCEP - 7 June 2013

Find the intervew Didier Pouillot by ARCEP on the occasion of the publication of the 13th of the DigiWorld Yearbook: our annual publication on the state of the digital world. (Interview available in french only)

Source: ARCEP's website

Didier Pouillot reviews the status and trends of DigiWorld markets: telecommunications, computer and television, an economy that accounts for 6% of global GDP, but whose performance is currently short of those of the general economy, particularly in Europe, on which Didier Pouillot explains the situation. This is also an opportunity to recall the issues in each market of the digital economy with many business models are changing mainly because of internet giants: Facebook, Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Apple, and more broadly OTT services.

Discover the slides from the London Yearbook presentation with Ronan Dune, CEO Telefónica :

Digiworld Yearbook 2013 Presentation in London, with Ronan Dunne, CEO Telefónica UK Limited. from DigiWorld by IDATE

About the Digiworld Yearbook

digiworld yearbook 2013
197 pages that deliver the finest market insights from IDATE experts who track the changes at work in the globe’s telecom, Internet and media industries throughout the year.

the DigiWorld Yearbook is published in English and French and available in print and PDF format. An iPad edition, developed by Forecomm, is also available.

The 2012 edition can be downloaded for free
The 2013 edition is available for purchase. Print: €99.99, incl. VAT; PDF and iPad: €54.99, incl. VAT

 

  • You can have a look at the digiworld yearbook 2013, purchase it or even download the 2012 version for free at : www.digiworld.org/yearbook/