Aménagement numérique en Guinée Conakry : présentation des conclusions du SDAN par IDATE DigiWorld au Ministre des Télécoms
Directeur du Pôle Territoires Numériques
La Guinée Conakry occupe une position particulière sur la côte Atlantique de l'Afrique de l'Ouest avec six pays limitrophes (Guinée-Bissau, Sénégal, Mali, Sierra Leone, Libéria, Côte d'Ivoire), un fort potentiel hydro-électrique grâce à la présence de nombreux fleuves (Sénégal, Niger, Gambie, ...) et des ressources minières importantes comme la bauxite par exemple.
En matière de réseaux de communications électroniques, la Guinée a adopté le 13 août 2015 une loi qui doit permettre notamment une concurrence effective et un développement des investissements privés sur l’ensemble du territoire, avec l'objectif de supprimer toute barrière à l'entrée des opérateurs et de limiter au maximum les coûts de déploiement grâce à la mutualisation et au partage des infrastructures.
La Guinée bénéficie d'une situation relativement favorable en matière d'accès à la bande passante internationale via le câble ACE (entre la France et l'Afrique du Sud avec le raccordement de nombreux pays de la côté ouest de l'Afrique). Et l'Etat s'est engagé dans une politique volontariste d'aménagement numérique de son territoire, avec la mise en œuvre d'un backbone national fibres optiques de près de 4000 km, qui sera achevé fin 2017 et qui maille le territoire national avec la desserte de 76 villes. Ce backbone sera exploité et commercialisé par la SOGEB une société anonyme contrôlée à l'heure actuelle à 100% par l'Etat Guinéen mais dont le capital a vocation à être ouvert partiellement à des opérateurs privés, dans un modèle d'opérateur d'opérateurs avec un réseau neutre, activé, ouvert à tous les opérateurs de détail dans des conditions transparentes et non discriminatoires.
Le Pôle Territoires Numériques de l'IDATE réalise actuellement, avec ses partenaires LM Ingénierie et le cabinet d'avocats CMS Francis Lefebvre, le schéma directeur d'aménagement numérique (SDAN) de la Guinée et a présenté les conclusions du SDAN le 14 décembre 2016 au Ministre des Postes, des Télécommunications et de l'Economie Numérique, Monsieur Moustapha Mamy Diaby.
Le SDAN fait l'objet de préconisations déclinées en 5 axes et 23 mesures opérationnelles concrètes portant sur les évolutions réglementaires, la poursuite des investissements en complément du backbone national, le montage juridique et financier pour l'exploitation et la commercialisation du réseau d'opérateur d'opérateurs, le soutien à la demande en matière de TIC, et la mise en œuvre de formations initiales et qualifiantes dans le domaine des TIC.
En Guinée, la mise en œuvre d'un réseau d'initiative publique d'opérateur d'opérateurs, ayant vocation à accueillir des partenaires privés, neutre, activé, ouvert à tous les opérateurs dans les mêmes conditions apparaît comme la solution efficace pour l'aménagement numérique du territoire ... avec une singulière résonnance avec le "modèle français" mis en œuvre chez nous.
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Head of Smart City Practice, IDATE DigiWorld
The prospects opened up by the smart city are rooted in a more intense use of digital technologies in the multiple components that make up the urban ecosystem: transport, security, network management, environmental management, waste management, transforming commerce, tourism, relations with government services, etc.
It is well understood that smart city projects can only develop successfully if the applications are relevant (useful and accepted) and if they are gradually interwoven with a cross-cutting momentum on a city-wide scale.
Beyond that, the success of these initiatives will depend in large part on users’ trust in the digital infrastructure and services on offer, along with the project’s ability to mobilise all of the urban ecosystem’s stakeholders. Taking proper account of these prerequisites must be central to governing any smart city project.
How to persuade users of the benefits of smart city projects?
- How to exploit the full potential of participatory democracy (civil tech) when running a smart city project?
- How can open data help strengthen trust in smart cities?
- How to prevent a smart city project from becoming just a juxtaposition of separate initiatives, bereft of synergies?
- How to talk about the risks of cybersecurity in a smart city project?
- What process needs to be in place to ensure the development of a resilient smart city?
DELVE DEEPER WITH THE FOLLOWING IDATE DIGIWORLD MARKET REPORTS
Lead IoT Expert , IDATE DigiWorld
Although the Internet of Things is a powerful concept, it is not necessarily a market in and of itself. IoT encompasses a very disparate array of fields that need to be examined separately, to obtain an accurate understanding of their particular features, and their true growth potential.
More operationally, beyond cost savings opportunities (mainly through various internal optimisations), with more and more connected objects, new services will emerge – chiefly through the connectivity itself (remote control applications), but also via the data generated by the machines. Leading industrial heavyweights already have their own data-oriented department.
On the industrial side, two approaches can be distinguished: traditional machine-to-machine and the ‘industrial internet’: the latter referring to an interconnected ecosystem and the former to a more siloed approach. In the main, the creation of value in the industrial Internet lies in data collection and analysis. The main question then for market players is how to collect data and analyse them, to then generate revenue. The bulk of M2M revenue should come from software and IT integration as primary applications, with the aim of enabling massive savings within verticals. Consequently, all providers are working on delivering an end-to-end solution with a strong service bent – even if this might require acquisitions for some verticals.
Applied to the consumer world, the Internet of Things (IoT) refers to smart home and connected objects in general, relatively new markets that are starting to take off. Even if questions are being raised over the sustainability of their adoption. The main reason is the lack of services attached to these objects, apart from remote use, through a mobile app. Many applications would be based on data generated by those things. However, unlike the industrial market, data privacy is a major concern here as it involves consumers’ approval. The blurred lines around privacy regulation have made all of the ecosystem’s players reluctant to provide consumer market solutions. Another hurdle is to determine what value-added comes from connecting these objects, and how to monetise the data they generate: will all objects be connected? Will all data be valuable? If so, how valuable?
DELVE DEEPER WITH THE FOLLOWING IDATE DIGIWORLD MARKET REPORTS
• Smart Home, A promising market, taking off slowly, Dec. 2015
Debate over the crucial role that trust will play in the digital economy’s future
The 38th annual DigiWorld Summit will run from 15 – 17 November 2016, and have as its central theme: The Internet of Trust. It will be an opportunity to engage in a meaningful international debate over digital trust issues – starting with security and privacy – which have become major sources of concern for all of the ecosystem’s stakeholders.
As the number of reported cyber-attacks worldwide is growing by close to 40% a year, we expect that upcoming stages in digital technologies’ evolution will only amplify the phenomenon. And this to such an extent that any future scenario is possible: from a continuation of the current chaos to a breakdown in trust that would lead to the construction of a new digital economy, which will no doubt differ in many respects from the one we know today.=
• Are we reaching a tolerance threshold for online trust?
• How can veteran digital industry players (equipment suppliers, telcos, IT companies) capitalise on the current climate?
• Are verticals threatened by the situation or, on the contrary, on the winning side of trust and security issues?
• Do we need a new regulatory framework to govern, or reassure, market players and consumers?
> Including the 120 speakers on this edition:
• Eva BERNEKE, CEO, KMD
• Anne BOUVEROT, CEO, Morpho
• Isabelle FALQUE-PIERROTIN, Chairwoman, CNIL
• Pierre, CHAPPAZ, Co-founder & Executive Chairman, Teads
• Didier LAMOUCHE, President & CEO, Oberthur
• Joseph LUBIN, Founder & CEO, ConsenSys, Co-Founder Ethereum
• Carlos LOPEZ BLANCO, Global Head, Public and Regulatory Affairs, Telefónica
• Stéphane RICHARD, Chairman & CEO, Orange
• Corrado SCIOLLA, President Europe, BT Global Services
• Nicolas SEKKAKI, CEO France, IBM
Choosing the theme for the 2016 DigiWorld Summit came about quite naturally. The vast majority of IDATE DigiWorld were eager to tackle the topic of trust.
For some time now, trust has been recognised as a vital ingredient in the success of a brand, an economy or a society. This is all the more true in a world being transformed by digital innovation. In its scenarios for 2025, IDATE DigiWorld underscored that trust was one of the key variables in tomorrow’s digital ecosystem. To shore up this belief, we need only look at some recent headlines:
• the cyberattacks against telcos, TV networks and government agencies,
• the legal wrangles between Apple and WhatsApp and government authorities wanting access to the encryption key for the devices or messages;
• the very drawn out European Union negotiations over new data protection rules;
• the end of the Safe Harbor transatlantic agreement and ensuing debates over the new Privacy Shield;
• questions over the dangers surrounding connected/driverless cars, and the growing ubiquity of the IoT in general;
• the ad–blocking phenomenon;
• questions over what impact multiple FinTech solutions will have on the soundness of the banking system, and blockchain’s ability to replace today’s trusted third parties;
So trust is a focal point for telcos, cloud computing companies, Internet giants, start–ups, governments and regulators, but also for every economic sector across the board, not to mention consumers and citizens.
And, as always, acknowledging risk must not prevent us from also analysing opportunities, in terms of innovation, differentiation strategies and the competitive advantages available to many market players.
Once again this year, the vital meeting place that this international conference has become, will include plenary sessions that will provide a springboard for a series of high–level specialty forums. These forums are an opportunity to delve deeper into the main trends we expect to see in mobile networks with the advent of 5G, ultrafast broadband, the Internet of Things, the TV market’s transformation in Europe, FinTech, video games, the digital promise in Africa and what makes a smart city.
A unique international forum for debate and networking
|> DigiWorld Week
A week devoted to understanding what makes our new digital world tick (12 – 20 November 2016)
|> The DigiWorld Awards
Recognising the best digital start-ups created by French entrepreneurs abroad
Key facts & figures
Europe’s trailblazing conference on the digital economy
The DigiWorld Summit is an annual event organised and hosted by IDATE experts, with the support of DigiWorld Institute members. Every year it holds ultra high-level international debates on the core issues shaping the digital economy, with the finest speakers and industry insiders.
• Participants: 1,200 participants at the DigiWorld Summit and more than 5,000 at DigiWorld Week
• Speakers: 120 speakers from around the world; 400 at DigiWorld Week
• Partners and sponsors: over 100 partners and sponsors (businesses, public sector, media…)
• Social media: 15,000 tweets (trending topics) and 2,000 live followers
For more information, visit our website: www.digiworldsummit.com
Hao Yi Emerging technologies expert, IDATE DigiWorld
The development of the mobile payment market was still heterogeneous in 2015.
The m-commerce payment market grew steadily, whereas the in-store mobile payment market remained nascent given the transaction volume, although the release of Apple Pay one year earlier had seemingly put an end to the doubts about near field communication (NFC) being the right technology for in-store proximity payment.
IDATE DigiWorld estimates that the worldwide m-commerce market revenue will likely grow from 2015 to 2019 at a CAGR of 26.5%, growing its share 26% of the overall value of the e-commerce market to 44.2%. As regards the arrival of in-store mobile payments with NFC technology, QR code, mobile wallets, mobile point-of-sale (mPOS) solutions and other mobile payment methods, IDATE DigiWorld values their transaction volume to grow at a CAGR of 74% between 2015 and 2019. The volume of in-store mobile payments is tiny compared to the trillions of USD of all point-of-sale (POS) transactions.
On the in-store payment market, no one has really ‘wined out’ as yet, although Internet giants (Apple, Google and Samsung) as well as card networks (Visa and MasterCard) are very active, and numerous new entrants are flooding in.
In addition, NFC payment working with mobile wallets did not see the expected explosion in volume. Even though the technology and NFC-enabled POS terminals have been progressively in place for many years, the perceived value of such services is low for consumers.
From the perspective of merchants, mobile payment alone is not enough to bring about mass adoption.
Find out more about this market in our dedicated report
Senior Consultant, IDATE DigiWorld
This market is considered one of the most promising in the Internet of Things sector with a number of connected things could climb from 200 to 900 million between 2015 and 2025.
The concept of the smart home can be understood as home automation for the Internet era, but it is a concept that has not yet really caught on.
It encompasses all of the machines in the home that could potentially be connected to the Web. It also includes a wide array of applications, from consumer electronics to home appliances, by way of light bulbs and presence sensors. Today’s market is focused mainly on selling hardware with a built-in connectivity module and which can be controlled remotely using a mobile app. But it now also includes hubs, i.e. central systems that allow the different devices to talk to each other.
Many of the currently available products are connected to managing energy consumption and personal security, as consumers are more inclined to invest in solutions that allow them to lower their electrical bill and/or feel safer in their own home.
A large and heavily populated ecosystem
The digital home ecosystem is vast, populated by a multitude of players from a wide range of industries, including veteran CE and appliance manufacturers, along with power companies and players from the lighting and security industries. Samsung is particularly active in this market, especially since it acquired the start-up SmartThings in 2004. The South Korean giant is selling a complete smart home solution, including a hub to which both the manufacturers’ and its competitors’ equipment can be connected. Philips also has a solid presence in the smart home market thanks to its Hue line of smart bulbs.
The marketplace is also populated by newcomers such as pure players specialised in connected devices – marketing smart thermostats, light bulbs and security cameras. Telcos too have joined the fray, taking advantage
of their modems already deployed in customers’ homes to roll out new initiatives. The Internet giants are also on hand: Google through its acquisition of Nest, a start-up that specialises in smart thermostats, and Apple with its HomeKit smart home development platform.
An ecosystem awash with solution providers means that there are multiple communication protocols at work. The current battle for supremacy between standards is pitting a number of initiatives backed by industry giants against one another.
Adoption of the smart home raises severalquestions
This market, fl edgling as it is, is considered one of the most promising in the Internet of Things sector. IDATE estimates that the number of connected things could climb from 200 to 900 million between 2015 and 2025. Most of the market’s revenue today comes from hardware sales, whose prices are still too high compared to virtually identical products without smart capabilities. Several issues, then, need to be resolved before the market can really take off: the price of connected devices and appliances, privacy concerns raised by the use of personal data, a business model that needs clarifying (including monetising data) and the fragmentation of core technologies.
Discover the perspectives, key trends, and scenarios about the Internet and Smart Living market for the next decade through our dedicated report.
Director of Studies, IDATE DigiWorld
The connected object market today shows a real complementarity between the major players in terms of their current positionings, aligned with their core business.
In the longer term, however, IDATE DigiWorld anticipates that competition will grow in ferocity, around the platforms and services which are set to be the next source of revenues.
The automotive market
Around the connected car business, is key for Internet giants and telcos. Competition today is, in the main, on the platform side as both telcos and Internet giants are aiming to position themselves here today. Indeed, it is the platform that is the cornerstone of the next connected car strategy. Looking further ahead, the main competitors will most likely be OTT service providers, as they will offer services by exploiting the data generated by sensors in the vehicle – Uber-like companies are one example. Some industry incumbents are already engaged in the battle: earlier in 2016, GM invested half a billion USD in Lyft, the main competitor to Uber. The major involved players are AT&T and Verizon on the side of the telcos and Google (and Apple to a lesser extent) for Internet players.
The wellness market
This market is very recent. Telcos are absent from its value chain, with the exception of very limited volumes of cellular objects. They only focus on the distribution side, where the reselling business can grab them a sale commission on wearable objects, linked to smartphones. OTT Internet players are eying this promising consumer market for the opportunities it will offer in the near future to manipulate and monetise masses of personal data.
The healthcare market :
A specific market for a long time, its very promising market has been in the growing numbers of potential ‘clients’ as their age increases. The key objectives of healthcare applications are to optimise the treatment of disease and to save costs for national healthcare services. Even though solutions will be provided in partnership with experts, both telcos and Internet players will be push platforms and services.
The smart home market
It will be the arena for immense competition in the next few years. It is considered as a growth area for fixed telcos which are already facing competition from cablecos. On the side of the OTT Internet player, smart home applications are seen as a complementary way to follow their consumers/audience, even though they have different approaches. Competition – again, it will be heavy – will on the platform and services side as all players will be wanting to manage the data.
Today, the industrial Internet market is considered as an extension of the Industrial M2M business for telcos. The Internet giants are notable by their absence, even though some could provide cloud-based tool: Google, and Amazon with its specific IoT AWS offering, are prime examples. Analogous with traditional online services, the main threat for telcos is that they yet again become the pipe, and only the pipe. They have, however, anticipated the connectivity commodity trend by offering data platform solutions and related services. The ARPU from connectivity is very limited and the telcos expect only a small share of connected devices will be equipped with a SIM card. Before services, telcos have backed their core business, by setting their eyes on LPWA technologies (SIGFOX or LoRa) or collaborating on LPWA-like cellular ones such as the NB-IoT ahead. They are also backing the next 5G technologies, which aim to empower various verticals, including healthcare, manufacturing, smart cities and the automotive. It will be a tough battle, given that Internet giants are global by definition. Moreover, compared with traditional Web services, the main difference is that Internet giants manufacture their own objects, providing almost an end-to-end solution of product, platform and services on top. Faced with this kind of solution, traditional players in the industry will also suffer from the invasive nature of the OTT Internet players and their fierce competition.
Find out more information on "Telco's Connected Objects Strategies" in our dedicated market report
Head of Consumer Electronics & Digital Entertainment Practice
By 2020, nearly 660 million smart toys could be sold, generating estimated revenues of 3.8 billion EUR, or 10.8% of the video game market.
The 'smart toys' or 'toys-to-life' phenomenon is generating a lot of interest because of its massive and rapid success. Smart toys are creating a new form of entertainment without really breaking with the function of toys or that of video games, and are at least as immersive as the two pastimes in their own right. Smart toys now constitute a new market segment, halfway between the video game and toy industries. Four industry players comprise the bulk of the market:
• Activision Blizzard with its Skylanders series, which has sold nearly 300 million figurines worldwide (8 games published since 2011)
• Disney Games with Disney Infinity, which brings to life its own characters and the universes of its subsidiaries: Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars
• Nintendo, which offers 'amiibo' figurines of its most popular characters (more than 10.5 million figurines sold in six months)
• At the end of 2015, LEGO gatecrashed the market with LEGO Dimensions and, after experimenting with smart toys with an earlier product called LEGO Fusion, its entrance was successful.
Other industry players, toy manufacturers and video game publishers, such as Hasbro and Mattel, are still at the trial phase or performing 'market tests'.
The main lessons learned from events in 2015 reflect the challenges faced and the successes achieved.
• The 'user experience' is central to the smart toy phenomenon, combining tangible objects — which may or may not be connected — with digital entertainment applications. This has given rise to the term 'phygital' to describe the experience.
• Business models based on the collection of figurines, dependent on video games to varying extents, continue to evolve and could incorporate Free-to-Play.
• Development models are primarily based on a so-called 'first party' or 'second party' approach. These operating models still leave little room for new entrants.
• There is a clear dichotomy between 'mainstream' smart toys, produced by industry giants for fixed and visible platforms on the big screen, and new entrants offering their solutions on mobile platforms, where the barriers to entry are not so high.
• The success of LEGO shows that convergence between toy manufacturers and video game companies is effective and can lead to AAA toys built around AAA video games.
The success of the smart toys video game segment is based on familiar universes that already have an audience of fans. There are still many fantasy worlds as yet untapped and therefore represent promising avenues for growth.
More information about smart toys market in our dedicated report
For the publication of the 16th edition of the DigiWorld Yearbook (pre-order now), IDATE is organizing a conference based on the detailed analysis of the current situations and some forecasts by IDATE experts on the major digital sectors, the discussion will deal with the great trends and challenges that will disrupt the digital markets by 2025.
Director of studies, DigiWorld IDATE
In 2018, the wearables market in value should exceed 22.5 billion EUR. Again, the growth will differ from object to object mainly because of the different price per object.
Wearable objects refer to daily consumer objects like wristband, watches, glasses, headsets or activity trackers with embedded sensors and connected mainly indirectly to the internet though a device/hub (through short range technology mainly). Wearable products are used in different applications, even though fitness, wellness and lifestyle are obviously the major segments, in volume notably. Some opportunities could be seen at the entreprise level which aims to integrate into their premises wearable solutions to improve process and productivity.
The wearable ecosystem is mainly dominated by object manufacturers which are very numerous. Some of them are pure players like Fitbit or Jawbone, others are traditional consumer electronics manufacturers (Sony, Samsung, etc).
Other manufacturers come from the sports world like specialized sport accessory players (Garmin, Suunto or Polar) or sportswear brands with Nike and Adidas chiefly. On the connectivity side, very few M2M mobile carriers are involved in the wearables market, only AT&T has a real involvement in this segment. Data-centric players are positioned on the platform business. Most of the pure players like Runtastic, Runkeeper benefit from the product makers allowing them to collect information from their different objects.
The platform is actually the enabler to build services on the top of devices. On the top of the wearable devices, new services should emerge thanks to data exploitation/exchange. In terms of market adoption, surveys show that it is still very limited for now. They illustrate that watches are the most excited wearable devices, but a majority of the consumers seems not to be so enthusiastic to buy one of them. On the market side, according to IDATE, in 2018, 123 million wearable devices should be sold representing a 70% CAGR from the 10 million sold in 2013. Nevertheless, this growth is not homogeneous for each category of wearables. The smart watches will lead the market with 80 million units by 2018 mainly because of the Apple Watch sales starting from 2015. In 2018, the wearables market in value should exceed 22.5 billion EUR. Again, the growth will differ from object to object mainly because of the different price per object.
Director of Studies, IDATE DigiWorld
IDATE has just released its latest market report on connected cars, which is part of its ongoing series on the Internet of Things and M2M. The report provides an opportunity to take stock of a major market whose rate of development appears to be accelerating, with a series of announcements, veteran industry leaders such as Mercedes talking about driverless cars, the rise of newcomers such as Tesla, and connected car projects coming out of China, as foreshadowed by the new joint-venture between Internet giant, Alibaba and one of China’s first car-makers, SAIC Motors.
This is a market that every stakeholder along the value chain is gearing up for.
The strategy of most manufacturers is to make their cars connected. The main driver here is based on the regulation related to safety issues in Europe and the underlying revenue opportunity for them. In the USA, the recent GM announcement to embed 4G modules in all new cars is seen as a key trigger for market take-off. For telcos, the revenue opportunity could be interesting as the connected car will generate traffic that telcos will charge for indirectly (through the automobile manufacturer).
All main M2M mobile carriers are involved in the connected car space, as the connected car represents one of the major markets in volume. In a context where their traditional mobile revenues are flat and even declining in some regions, providing mobile connectivity in cars is a key business opportunity for telcos. Beyond car-related applications in driver assistance, from the perspective of a telco, the car can be seen as an additional cellular device, with a potential high-consumption service profile with such usage as the mobile Internet, entertainment on demand and mobile hotspot features. The prime business model remains the traditional wholesale relationship (B2B2C), even though some telcos like AT&T try to address end users directly through B2C models (through a retail data plan) and the integration of an automotive into the mobile share plan.
For Internet players, the strategy here is clear: the automobile is an additional connected device just as smartphones, tablets and laptops and needs to be addressed. However, Apple and Google do not have really the same approach. Indeed, whereas Apple aims to introduce its technology to interface with its products, Google is promoting the embedment of its technology into the car as a regular device. Google also wants to collect data to provide the most accurate advertising as possible, such as a related point-of-interest, based mainly on location.
A market that is starting to take off
On the market side, according to IDATE, in 2020, 420 million automobiles will be connected, representing a 34% CAGR on the 74 million connected vehicles in 2014. Nevertheless, this growth is not homogeneous for each category of connected cars. The embedded systems will lead the market by 2020.
Asia will lead the connected car market in 2020. Europe benefits from a 39% CAGR by 2020, mainly thanks to eCall regulation, entering onto market by end-2018.
In 2020, connectivity revenue for connected cars will exceed 9 billion EUR. In value, North America will be the leading zone, mainly due to higher ARPU than anywhere else in the world both for telematics and infotainment offerings. This encompasses direct connectivity through embedded systems but also indirect revenue related to smartphone usage. The major issues to be raised here are on the real willingness of the user to pay for such services. To encourage users to subscribe, telcos and manufacturers are already contemplating different revenue models including share plans. All the same, adoption is likely to remain limited over the next five years.
Forecast for connected car evolution, by implementation technique
worldwide, 2020 (%, Million units)
The headlines are full of the self-driving vehicle, which is on everyone’s lips in the industry. Automation could be framed at six levels, ranging from zero autonomy to fully automated. The leading manufacturers are, at the first steps, mainly luxury car providers. The traditional car manufacturers are focused on the semi-autonomous route, but the ‘upstarts’ from the realm of the Internet, such as Google and Apple, are straightaway testing the waters of the fully autonomous car. Nevertheless, many issues need to be removed to see the self-driving car market take off. Currently, they are legal (on how to handle accident responsibility), cultural (seeing no real demand from end users) and economical (on who will fund the infrastructure).
Find out more information on "Content economics market" in our dedicated market report