10Apr/150

Mobile Gaming, 23 Milliards d’euros d’ici 2018 !

infog google vs apple 2018

Google versus Apple : les deux géants tirent le marché vers le haut et s’affrontent au travers de business models différents

 

L’économie des jeux sur les plateformes nomades est remarquablement efficace, et la concurrence qui s’exerce entre Apple et Google l’est tout autant.

L’App Store d’Apple et Google Play sont les deux principaux appstores du marché en volume d’applications disponibles et téléchargées.

On notera qu’en juillet 2014, ils comptabilisaient chacun plus de 1 million d’applications, loin devant Windows Phone Store, Amazon Appstore et Blackberry World. Aujourd’hui, ces deux appstores rassemblent à eux seuls  quasiment 80% des applications disponibles.

Les chiffres clés du marché mobile mondial à 2018

•    Le nombre de jeux mobiles dépasse de loin le nombre de jeux disponibles sur les autres plateformes de jeux,  offrant de nombreuses perspectives aux grands acteurs.

•    Le marché du jeu mobile s’élève à 12.8 milliards EUR en 2014. 72.6% de la valeur est générée par le jeu sur smartphone et atteindra vraisemblablement les 15 Milliards d’euros d’ici 2018

global mobile market generated by smartphone and tabletsDes modèles économiques innovants : Le free2play séduit de plus en plus de joueurs

Sur téléphone mobile, les 20 plus gros succès de l’année 2014 aux États-Unis sont des Free2Play. Ils étaient 18 en 2013.

•    Sur iTunes Store d’Apple, les jeux payants ne représentent plus que 8% du catalogue, contre 47% en 2012.

•    Le modèle Free2Play cohabite avec le modèle Pay-per-Download, mais le premier est bien plus répandu. Même les acteurs « historiques » du jeu vidéo investis dans le jeu nomade ou les « pure players » du jeu nomade ont passé le cap du Freemium, EA et Gameloft en tête.

Ce modèle a vocation à d’abord séduire le joueur avant de le faire payer. Une fois conquis, ce dernier paiera des objets virtuels en fonction de son attraction au jeu et de ses objectifs d’évolution à l’intérieur du jeu.

Pour retrouver toutes les informations concernant l’étude Mobile Gaming et les études associées, cliquez-ici

Plus d’informations sur l’expertises et les événements de l’IDATE sur :

www.idate.org          www.digiworldsummit.com          www.digiworldweek.com          www.gamesummit.pro

24Mar/150

In 2015, the key words of the Mobile World Congress were 5G, IoT, virtualization and LTE-U : PART 2

image accroche article MWC part 2

IoT : The Internet of Things

Connected objects were everywhere and IoT is now becoming the Internet of everything.

Connected cars

Connected cars attracted a lot of attention with connected vehicles on most of equipment manufacturers’ and MNOs’ booths.
Renault’s CEO made a keynote where he presented the timetable for assisted driving. According to Mr. Carlos Ghosn, despite their numerous initiatives and some acquisition rumours, Internet giants are not rivals to car manufacturers but allies, as they consider electric cars and they help car makers to promote electric cars.
Ford had even its own booth presenting the electric vehicles (both passenger and entreprise cars) with dedicated solutions. In the meantime, Vodafone presented a Porsche Panamera model equipped with its new Telematics solution since the Cobra acquisition.

Smart home

Smart is also getting traction in the IoT space. In the “innovation city” hall (space dedicated to the connected objects), through the connectedhouseAT&T offering (Digital life) where the home could control through the smartphone and even through the connected car (equipped with an AT&T SIM card). When approaching the home, the car can trigger the opening of gate by itself for instance (pre-programmed distance).

connectedthingsWearables

Several watches and smart objects were also present on the different booths. Only AT&T provides cellular connected wearable on its booth, including the TIMEX and Samsung Gear S.

Alternative technologies

While 5G is already in the tracks, very low throughput network technologies are also under the spotlights. After the recent release of its 100 MEUR fundraising campaign among telecom operators, Sigfox was also on everyone’s lips at the MWC. Among the main new shareholders, Telefonica confirmed its strategic investment and its willingness to integrate the technology into its portfolio to address additional verticals and applications.

Alliances

The GMA (Global M2M Association) also announced a strategic collaboration with Gemalto and Ericsson to provide a Multi-Domestic Service based on a single SIM (using the eUICC technology) helping global enterprises (chiefly from the automotive and consumer electronics segments) capitalize on the growth of connected devices.

Growing market but still key challenges though

During his keynote, if AT&T Wireless CEO predicted that the smart phone will be the remote control of everything in the next few years, he also pointed out the key challenges to address in order to make the IoT market grow significantly:
•    Security
•    Privacy concerns
•    Effortless (ease of use)

Privacy

privacylogoData about devices and their users is generated in real-time, often by default and without the user being aware or having choice (especially for free apps). There is a need for a different approach to giving users transparency, choice and control over their data and privacy.

Generally user has a single choice : accept or not using the service, there should be gradual approach (like sharing some id attributes but not all of them).
Privacy could be a competitive stick for service providers, as users are becoming more aware of privacy.

Facebook in emerging countries

fbFacebook has launched Facebook zero in partnership with mobile operators (Millicom, Telenor, Airtel): data use is free for a limited period, and after that operators can charge data.

•    Airtel: “Operators and Facebook are like the beauty and the beast, but the beast (facebook) is becoming more human nowadays”.  Airtel was reluctant to introduce Facebook because of VoIP threat. Is looking at it like the “boiling milk”.
•    Millicom, Telenor: have seen ARPU rise thanks to facebook launching, very promising for them.
•    Wikipedia has the same approach of “Wikipedia zero”, dealing with operator to provide data access for free.

Financial inclusion

Banks, such as Master Card, provide a global and interoperable solutions. Those systems needs public-private partnerships. Hong Leong Islamic Bank Berhad has launched a solution in Malaysia.

More informations about IDATE's expertise and events :

www.idate.org      www.digiworldsummit.com      www.digiworldweek.com

23Mar/150

In 2015, the key words of the Mobile World Congress were 5G, IoT, virtualization and LTE-U : PART 1

MWC infog

As for each edition, IDATE has been Analyst partner of the Mobile World Congress. A fantastic opportunity for our analysts and experts to interview many professionals coming from their Mobile planet to Barcelona for this intense and tremendous week.

5G Concept

Even though the concept of 5G is still very much under discussion (videos from KT, Huawei presented during conferences), NGMN (next generation mobile networks) Alliance published its 5G white paper which can be seen as the mobile operators “wish list” for 5G. Nonetheless, 5G is scheduled for 2020. Early trials should arrive in 2018, with projects scheduled for the Winter Olympic games in South Korea (4G became real in 2010’s, 3G in 2000’s). Key advantages of 5G over 4G would be a much lower latency (1ms compared to 40 ms in 4G and 100 ms with 3G), the capacity to connect billions of devices, faster response that will boost services like augmented reality, self driving cars and online gaming. Huawei mentioned that 5G should reach 10 Gbps (7 minutes to download a movie with 4G, 6 s with 5G).

5G should better take into account specific requests of vertical markets (healthcare, automotive, energy, government, city management, manufacturing and public transportation) and better manage the Internet of Things.

Equipment suppliers showed first demos of 5G air interface using millimetric bands (70 GHz - Nokia) and 15 GHz (Ericsson). New air interface techniques were proposed by Huawei with the non-orthogonal access technology based on Sparse Code Multiple Access (SCMA), and Filtered-Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (F-OFDM).

With tvisuel principal idate MWC v2he 5GPPP (Public Private Partnership), Europe is trying to accelerate developments of 5G with fundings of €700 million for R&D. It is expected that the industry will invest five times this amount. According to the 5GPPP, 5G should be based upon a HetNet (heterogeneous network) supporting various radio access technologies and frequency bands ranging from sub-1 GHz bands to 100 GHz. Various traffic profiles will have to be supported:

 

•    Low speed-low energy for IoT sensors
•    High speeds for video services
•    Very low latency profile for mission critical services such as PPDR (Public Protection and Disaster Relief) and for transportation issues

Google will soon become a MVNO

Google confirmed during the MWC that the group is negotiating MVNO agreements with the US mobile operators. Light details on Google plans so far. Further information scheduled for months to come. Nova is not expected to compete directly against US MNOs. In addition, Google do not want to launch a network at scale.
The Google MVNO will only work with the Nexus6. “The focus of Google’s network could be on connecting devices other than phones, as watches, cars and other devices increasingly will include mobile connectivity features”.Mobile Identity

Different methods of identification and authentication, each suited to particular transaction types (from access to social network to official ID) ; biometric authentication as a new solution.
•    Digital identity card exists in Estonia (with digital authentication), biometric card exists in middle east and Africa (Algeria, South Africa)
•    Mobile authentication is a challenge for mobile operators, but the market is far from mass-market: demand is not ready for official ID authentication on mobile, standards are needed, as well as regulation.Mobile Id could be a leapfrog technology in emerging countries where people don’t even have identity papers, and have a mobile phone.
If mobile operators don’t manage to be positioned on this market, banks or social networks could.

Virtualization

PICTO VIRTUANetwork Function Virtualization (NFV) appeared last year during MWC and is now close to commercial implementation by mobile operators. Telefonica demonstrated a full network together with ALU and HP. It will integrate a vRAN, vCDN, vEPC and vIMS.
A first implementation of vRAN was presented by China Mobile which is collaborating with Alcatel-Lucent and Intel on Cloud-RAN, which is seen as a first step towards virtual RAN. NTT Docomo is working with NEC on virtualization of the core network (EPC).

LTE-U

LTELOGO2LTE-U technology is important and was present on many vendors’ booths. It will give free access to additional spectrum in the 5 GHz band currently used by Wifi. This will provide SDL (supplementary downlink) capability, providing extra capacity for downlink traffic, especially video. LBT (Listen Before Talk), the specific function which will allow smooth compatibility between Wifi and LTE in the 5 GHz band will be included in 3GPP Release 13 expected to be adopted in Q3 2016.
LTE and Wifi carriers can also be combined in order to provide higher throughputs but in that case, the benefits of LTE higher spectrum efficiency are not present.

 

20Mar/150

Nouveau cycle de conférences de prospective numérique sur les enjeux de l’Internet, de la télévision et des télécoms à 2025

logo DWFuture generique 2015

A l’occasion de la sortie de la nouvelle édition de son DigiWorld Yearbook, l’IDATE présente son nouveau cycle de conférences de prospective numérique sur les enjeux de l’Internet, de la télévision et des télécoms à 2025 !

La première session DigiWorld Future  se déroulera le 16 juin au Palais Brongniart, à Paris,  dans le cadre du Festival Futur en Seine en partenariat avec la Ville de Paris et Cap Digital.

A partir des analyses des experts de l’IDATE, les débats seront animés par Marjorie Paillon, Journaliste, Tech 24, Philippe Escande, Rédacteur en Chef, Le Monde et Gilles Babinet, avec les contributions exceptionnelles de :

sebastienbazin lowaxellelemaire lowMaurice Levy lowfrederic mazzella lowrichardstephaneOROUSSAT low

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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11Feb/150

Ultra-fast broadband 14.6 million FTTH/B subscribers in the EU at end 2014

CHAILLOU_Valérie
Valérie CHAILLOU Head of Research, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE

Accelerated growth in FTTH/B coverage from incumbents and enhancement in competition from new entrants, even in mature markets

 

In 2014, the dynamism of European markets (EU-35) was impressive: the number of subscribers reported the highest growth since end 2010 (nearly 55% increase). In terms of coverage, the increase reached 43%. This dynamism is led by countries such as Spain, where players have clearly played an important role and finally overpassed their initial objectives. There were nearly 14.6 million FTTH/B subscribers and more than 59 million homes passed in the EU-35 at end 2014.

In Spain, the incumbent Telefonica has decided to accelerate its rollouts aiming at covering 10 million households at end year, compared to less than 4 million at end 2013. This impressive growth and associated commercial strategy had a concrete impact on the Spanish market where, during the year, there were nearly 800,000 new FTTH subscribers.

Another noteworthy country is Romania where the leading players have decided to change their strategy and finally deploy FTTH/B when they were firstly focused on FTTx/LAN architecture in previous years. Therefore, the number of subscribers has considerably increased taking into account a total churn from end users. Those countries are followed by France, Turkey and the Netherlands (where, respectively, 25%, 24% and 39% of FTTH/B subscribers are new 2014 subscribers).

Elsewhere, Sweden still devotes to be highlighted: the latest trend in the country is to focus more and more on the single-dwelling units market which was not the first target of players involved in FTTH/B. The demand is steadily increasing since 2013 and, even if more complex and costly to deploy, FTTH to single-dwelling units is becoming a commodity. This is even truer for local fibre network players, involved in local scale rollouts, which have devoted half of their investments in targeting single-dwelling units in 2014. The Swedish incumbent was also very active in 2014, with more than 300,000 new Homes Passed yoy and an increase of around 31% in terms of FTTH/B Broadband subscribers. Then, the competitive landscape is also moving thanks to the involvement of smaller players that have strong ambition and get involved by acquiring local fibre networks previously owned by municipalities. Such trend should help Sweden keep a leading position on the European FTTH/B market.
On other markets, FTTH/B subscriptions also increased significantly. A part from Spain, the most performing country in 2014, we can mention the Netherlands where the number of FTTH/B subscribers has increased by 65%. France, Portugal, Turkey and Switzerland have also shown steady growth, in line with the trend we had already noted in 2013, with between 32 and 79% growth rate in the subscribers basis.

In terms of players involved in FTTH/B projects, alternative carriers are still leading the way, representing a 45% of the total homes passed in EU35 at end 2014 (67% considering EU39, which shows the important role of those players in Russia and Ukraine!). Among them, we can note this year the interesting role of recently entered players in countries considered as mature such as in Sweden and the Netherlands. Most of those players are backed with investment funds that help them strengthen their FTTH/B strategies.

The number of local authorities launching FTTH/B rollout projects on their territory has decreased a little bit in 2014 but they still represent only 9% of homes passed in EU35. Few new projects have been concretely launched by local authorities noted during 2014. There are some interesting rollouts in France, still in the context of the national program for superfast broadband, but most of them are still in the very beginning of the process. They represent some 600,000 homes passed end 2014.
Then, of course, incumbents are important players in all European countries. They represent 46% of HP in EU35 at end 2014, +3% compared to 2013. Several incumbents have considerably accelerated their rollouts in 2014. As in 2013, the most dynamic is Telefonica in Spain, but with a much more impressive growth: from 1.7 new Homes Passed in 2013, Telefonica reached more than 6 million new Homes Passed in 2014. Then come Orange in France (+897,000 HP), TeliaSonera in Sweden (+416,000 HP), KPN/Reggefiber in the Netherlands (+312,000 HP) and Turk Telekom in Turkey (+300,000 HP). It is also very interested to note the quite recent involvement of Bezeq in Israel, which decided to upgrade its infrastructure to FTTB: more than 1 million homes are now passed with FTTB but no services are available yet on the network. The operator is still focused on providing VDSL2 based services to end users for the moment, but it is betting on the need for higher speed rates in the near future and it is preparing itself to be able to provide required solutions very rapidly.

Number of FTTH/B subscribers per country in Europe (countries with more than 200 K subscribers)

numberOfFTTHSubscribers-per-country-in-Europe

Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe

 

Number of FTTH/B homes passed per country in Europe (countries with more than a million homes passed)

Number-of-ftth-homes-per-country-in-europe

Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe

When enlarging the analysis to EU39, Russia and Ukraine are still very specific markets. Their respective demographic characteristics are so different from other countries that the comparison is not always very relevant. However, both markets are quite dynamic, with respectively +50 and +15% in terms of subscribers basis.
Regarding the technology deployed, Ethernet is still players’ first choice across the EU-39, and represented 66% of all FTTH/B rollouts at end 2014.
As concerns network architecture, most new deployments concerned FTTH which now represent 41% of homes passed at end 2014 (vs 34% one year ago). However, FTTB is still the favourite configuration as it allows them to avoid the issues that come with installing fibre on private property, and especially MDUs – i.e. having to negotiate with each property owner.

1 The term EU-35 refers to the EU-28 countries –Cyprus + Andorra, Iceland, Israel, Macedonia, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland and Turkey.
The EU-39 refers to the EU-35 + the four CIS Countries: Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Russia.

>> Our study about FTTH/B are interresting you ? Go on our store.

5Jan/150

Le Digiworld Summit 2014 in drawings

ouverture DWS14

The 2014 digiworld summit "drawn from life" by Aurélie Bordenave, alias Léely. Discover all the strong moments. (texts are in french or in english)

 

 

 

 

Global introduction

Welcom-adress-and-global-solution

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plenary: Business models, Rethinking the telcos business models in the 5G era

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Keynote : Smart Glasses

 

smart-glasses

 

Business models: Rethinking the telcos business models in the 5G era

next-step-towards-5G

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Disruptive innovations: one step towards 5G

michel-combes-alcatel

 

Smart City & Mobile living

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Seminar "TV everywhere"

tv-everywhere
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Seminar : "Business models: M2M & Internet of Things - Smarter objects, smarter processes"

m2m-internet-of-things

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Business models: Narrowing the gap between explosive usage and limited ad revenues
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Europe on the rebound ?

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TV & facing Mobility

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>> Retrouvez tous les dessins d'Aurélie Bordenave durant le Digiworld Summit 2014 sur Flickr.

>> Découvrez le travail d'Aurélie Bordenave alias Léely sur son site.

 

5Jan/150

Digiworld Summit 2014 : the speakers’interviews – in french

ouverture DWS14

Le digiworld summit 2014 a réuni autour des questions de la mobilité près de 1 200 participants et 140 speakers du monde numérique. Les vidéos des moments forts de ces deux journées.

 

 

- L'interview de Laurent Solly, DG de Facebook France

- L'interview d'Eric Scherer, en charge de la prospective à France Télévisions"Social TV, l'internaute en ligne de lire "

- L'interview de Julien Villedieu, président du Syndicat national des jeux vidéos : "Le jeu vidéo en mobilité"

- L'interview de Carlos Moreno, "La ville nous parle"

- L'interview de Kévin Cloarec "Comment les objets connectés révolutionnent-ils notre quotidien"

Les vidéos sont signées Vincent Touati fondateur du site Convergence Numérique.
Retrouvez ici la playlist des vidéos de convergence Numérique pour le Digiword Summit 2014.

16Dec/140

Mobile Communication: Wrap up from DigiWorld Summit 2014

digiworldsummit-2014-Mobility-reloaded

by Yves Gassot, CEO, IDATE  
& Didier Pouillot, Director of the Telecom Strategy Business Unit, IDATE

The 2014 DigiWorld Summit sessions devoted to telecoms gave off a certain serene, so as not to say optimistic vibe. Was it because of the huge numbers that each one trotted out, whether talking about mobile customer growth (over 9 billion users by the end of the decade), the exploding Internet of Things (80 billion connected things in 2020, according to IDATE), mobile traffic growth (triple that of wireline traffic) or the speeds expected from Advanced LTE (up to 100 times faster than 3G)...

 

5G needs to put Europe back on the map

So the watchwords for all of the speakers at this year’s Summit were erasing the past decade which, for a great many telcos, has been synonymous with shrinking revenue and margins in Europe’s five biggest markets (EU-5) since 2008, as underscored by Didier Pouillot, Head of IDATE’s Telecom Strategies Business Unit. Synonymous too with spending well below their counterparts in the US, and lagging behind in 4G rollouts, even though real progress has been made in terms of coverage. So the gauntlet has been thrown down: Europe needs to be back on the map, and amongst the world’s telecom hardware and service leaders by the time the 5G era rolls around, i.e. by around 2020, even if the South Koreans in 2018 and the Japanese in 2020 will be keen to show off their chops at the Winter and Summer Olympics, respectively.

From a technical standpoint, the race to superfast mobile appears to be well out of the gate. Frédéric Pujol, Head of IDATE’s Wireless Business Unit, listed the assets of LTE, which has now become a global standard, and how LTE Advanced will move things even further along with frequency aggregation, HetNets (Heterogeneous Networks) that will make it easier to manage small cells, optimised multicast protocols (especially important knowing that video is expected to account for more than 50% of traffic), eMBMS, etc. Although far from being standardised, 5G will take datarates higher still, delivering speeds in the Gigabit/s. But, as several speakers pointed out, the future will also mean multi-network access, taking into consideration the particular constraints surrounding the deployment of the Internet of Things, for instance, as not all objects are connected via cellular networks – but rather via NFC or low frequency radio networks, like the ones deployed by Sigfox.
What alternative wireless technologies can do… while waiting for 5G

There was a lot of talk about Wi-Fi in Montpellier. There was Silano Lo, CEO of Ruckus Wireless, one of Silicon Valley’s top equipment suppliers. She spoke in particular about the progress made by new generations of Wi-Fi, which will be fully integrated into telcos’ infrastructure, so subscribers will no longer have to login and enter a password. She also reminded us that Wi-Fi was a central part of

Comcast and other American cable companies’ strategies, both as way to secure customer loyalty and enter the wireless market. These strategies are also found in Europe, with companies like Liberty Global and BT, with Wi-Fi enabling wireline telcos to operate as MVNOs, combining homespots and hotspots, while minimising the amount of traffic being relayed over cellular infrastructure.
Speakers on the various panels offered nuanced answers to the question of whether high-speed and ultra high-speed mobile access will come to replace wireline access. All came together to emphasise that, in emerging economies, mobile broadband will be the main channel for Internet growth, even if Christophe Wilhelm, Senior VP Strategy & Innovation for Thales Alenia Space, did stress that satellite-based – both geostationary and in medium and low-earth orbit (MEO/LEO) – and unconventional solutions such as balloons and even drones, will also have a role to play.

The superfast revolution will require a stronger core

For Michel Combes, CEO of Alcatel-Lucent, the debate is no longer about whether fixed or mobile systems will emerge triumphant: convergent infrastructures and ultra high-speed mobile will no longer be able to avoid public and private small cell architectures, pulling optical fibre closer and closer to user premises. For Mr Combes, the revolution is not confined to superfast access but, more fundamentally, will go by way of concepts such as SDN (Software Defined Network) and virtualisation with NFV (Network Function Virtualisation), which will give network operators access to control and command functionalities that ensure the networks’ reliability and security. If the smartphone has become the measuring stick of innovation for consumers, and the cloud revolution has begun, the network revolution that connects one to the other, is still to come.

Telcos on the offensive: working to change regulation and business models

Naturally, telecom carriers also talked about how to get back on their feet. Following through on what Michel Combes had to say, Telefónica’s Global Head of Public Strategies and Regulatory affairs, Carlos Lopez-Blanco, and Deputy CEO of Orange, Pierre Louette, want to see Europe deliver a strategic action plan in the very near future. More specifically, Carlos Lopez-Blanco shared his wishlist for the new Commission:
•    more relaxed regulation that leaves greater leeway for commercial negotiations;
•    increased harmonisation in the application of the regulatory framework, and emergence of a European regulator;
•    a level playing field that puts an end to the asymmetry in the regulation imposed on telcos and the laissez-faire attitude towards the dominant positions enjoyed by OTT companies.

This last demand goes beyond sector-specific regulation, however. By the same token, how the ongoing consolidation in Europe plays out is largely in the hands of anti-trust authorities. But the representatives of Telefónica and Orange did not simply express their frustration with regulatory constraints. They also sketched the future of their business models, emphasising the promise they see in the development of 4G and mobile data traffic, in the cloud and M2M, along with the potential offered by partnerships with content providers and verticals, while not excluding the possibility of offering exclusive products and their own OTT services. This was an opportunity for them to make clear that their support of an open Internet must not relegate them to the status of dumb pipe.

To go further…

Our videos :
> Pierre Louette, Deputy CEO d’Orange
> Frédéric Pujol, directeur de la Business unit Wireless de l’IDATE

> Michel de Rosen’s présentation (Eutelsat ) 

The presentations :
> Didier Pouillot, Director of the Telecom Strategy Business Unit, IDATE, « rethinking the telcos business model »
> Jaehyun YEO, Senior Researcher, KISDI, "Future Networks: Challenges & Opportunities"
> Ambroise Popper, VP/GM M2M BU, Sequans Communications, "Closing Keynote " 

> Carlos LOPEZ, Telefónica, "Rethinking the Telcos business models in the age of 5G "
> Soline Olszanski, VP Strategy & Innovation, Hub One, "4G Critical and Professional"

Our study :
> World Network Optimisation Technologies 

> World LTE Market
> World FTTx Markets

12Dec/140

Yves Gassot’s edito : Europe, a new order

GASSOT Yves

Yves Gassot
CEO, IDATE

Europe’s telecommunications sector is in a major state of flux these days, due to a combination of changes in Brussels and an acceleration in market consolidation deals.

These include:

•    The formation of a new Commission in Brussels, and the introduction of Junker’s investment package, which could include funding for telecoms infrastructure, although no figures or details on the allocation scheme have yet been released.

•    The particular way this new Commission’s Digital Single Market project team is being structured around a vice-president and a commissioner. Many have commented on the lack of cohesion between the statements issued thus far by Messrs Andrus Ansip and Günther Oettinger.

•    Questions over Ms Kroes and the outgoing Parliament’s legacy. The Recent Council of Telecommunications Ministers demonstrated how hard it will be to stick to the agenda that focused on three issues: a) net neutrality b) roaming in Europe c) coordinating spectrum management policies. Despite being substantial, the revisions to the initial text proposed by the Italian president failed to achieve a consensus, and were rejected by operators and most members.

•    The launch of a new review. The Commission will also need to establish a timetable to begin reviewing the directives as planned. The process will include a review of relevant market definitions, and will probably result in the proposal of an even shorter list of markets subject to ex ante analysis of SMP.

•    By replacing “European single market for telecommunications” with the “Digital single market” in Europe, the Commission is also looking to highlight telecoms-adjacent legal provisions, such as those relating to privacy and intellectual property. In another vein, it also needs to back the OECD’s efforts to put an end to OTT companies’ abusive tax evasion practices, while its antitrust powers will need to rule on whether Google is abusing its dominant position. And coming up soon are the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations over new digital economy dossiers…

At the same time, we are tempted to say that real life goes on, and may even be accelerating

Europe’s telecom services markets are still in a slump, but many do seem to be getting back onto a more solid footing. The most striking trend is the rising M&A fever: after the finalisation of major deals in Germany (O2-Eplus) and in France (Altice/Numericable-SFR), we find out that BT, which had been displaying growing ambitions for several quarters (stepped up fibre rollout plan, combined with the launch of BT Sports and the acquisition of 4G frequencies) were also looking to take over O2 UK or EE. Hutchison (3), the smallest of Britain’s four mobile operators has said it would be willing to buy the operator that BT does not.

A veteran proponent of fixed-mobile convergence in the superfast era, Vodafone – which had already integrated Cable & Wireless in the UK, Kabel Deutschland in Germany and cableco Ono in Spain – has now set its sights on Liberty Global. Present in a dozen countries in Europe, the takeover of Liberty Global would give Vodafone majority control over Virgin Media in the UK, whose cable network covers close to 50% of British homes, full ownership of UPC-Ziggo which covers 75% of households in the Netherlands, and in its main market of Germany, control over the top two cable companies, covering close to 90% of the country’s households.

Of course, antitrust authorities will need to examine all of these deals, and may well impose certain “remedies”. We should also add that other (public) proposals are also underway, including: Orange’s bid to bolster its assets in Spain by taking control of Jazztel; Altice/Numericable’s acquisition of (the Portuguese-owned stake) in Portugal Telecom; and the possibility that Brazil’s Oi (with which the Portuguese incumbent had formed a joint venture) could merge with Telecom Italia, or its Brazilian subsidiary, TIM! Should these deals go through – or at least the major ones – they will tip the balance of power dramatically, which could well trigger another round of M&A deals in response.

Securing loans does not appear to be an issue, and the financial markets are apparently not put off by debt to EBITDA ratios of more than four or five to one. But analysts will be scrutinising the deals’ P/E multiples and the true outlook for synergies (or at least positive scale effects) being forecast for the future entities’ EBITDA.

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2Dec/140

Future Internet 2025: Platform wars, and a market four times the size

BONNEAU_Vincent-84x126Vincent BONNEAU
Head of IDATE’s Internet Business Unit, IDATE

At the 2014 DigiWorld Summit 2014, IDATE has unveiled it latest market report devoted to the Internet’s evolution over the next 10 years.

As the Web undergoes massive changes brought by ubiquitous mobility and verticalised consumption, IDATE has published a report that explores the future of the Internet, through an analysis of technological trends, user habits, business models and regulation. Using a scenario-based approach, it looks at the role each of the market players will play, and delivers qualified data for the global Internet services market up to 2025.

Vincent Bonneau, Head of IDATE’s Internet Business Unit, who oversaw this report, says that: “The Internet is a fundamental disruption for the ICT industry in general and even for other (non-ICT) industries, leading new and old players to operate with lower revenues and cost per unit. The effects of Internet have already been quite impressive, capturing 229 billion EUR in 2013 and destroying value in IT, content and telecom industries, but these are merely effects and have not yet had their full-scale impact.”

Internet-related disruptions originate from an open technical environment, leveraging many standards regarding core technologies, including those around networking technologies and leading to some form of network agnosticism. The parallel shift towards digitisation is becoming a progressive softwarisation, starting with information and data but now also reaching hardware and verticals. Business models are increasingly replicating the economics of software in being expensive to produce but cheap to reproduce; in particular, their replication of economies of scale and zero marginal cost is leading to bigger addressable markets. This ‘perfect’ picture is challenged, though, by the development of the Internet today with numerous (upper-layer) proprietary technologies, local regulations, commercial barriers and significant costs of non-software assets and marketing.

The major uncertainties around evolutions towards 2025 are concentrated around two main questions that can help to draw the lines between four very different scenarios.
Availability and openness of data: Personal data is at the core of the business model of many service providers, but privacy and security are also major concerns for most users. Internet users and governments are facing a trade-off between (cheap) access to innovative services, requiring advanced technologies and adequate funding, and the control and sharing of the data in an overall environment of relatively limited trust.
Ecosystems: At the same time, the development of major platforms, developing their own technologies, is challenging the open nature of the original Internet ecosystem. Local regulations and open standards could limit the influence of platforms, as well as business models more focused on hardware and physical product sales.

The most likely scenario to prevail is, broadly speaking, a continuation of today’s ‘Platform Wars’, where leading Internet and retail platforms concentrate ever more data. Leveraging their own infrastructure and a relaxed regulatory environment, they would provide the most innovative services around a mix of advertising and hardware and product sales and capture most of the 875 billion EUR market by 2025 (CAGR of 12% for 2013-2025).

The other scenarios are more extreme options. In an ‘Open Innovation’ scenario, there are no more dominant players due to an environment with plenty of interoperable solutions and stricter competition rules. Service providers combine their own technology in real time with third-party data to provide advanced innovative services, mostly based on targeted advertising, leading to a market of almost 1,077 billion EUR by 2025. In the ‘Low-cost Islands’ scenario, end users would discard services with limited privacy and focus more naturally on paid services bringing strong savings compared to traditional services without sharing personal data with third parties. Numerous services would co-exist thanks to advanced standardisation and would remain relatively unknown, not leading to higher trust level.

The low-cost centric approach would be reflected in an overall market of some 750 billion EUR in 2025. The ‘Pay per Trust’ scenario is a more radical scenario with only a few players providing enough trust thanks to advanced and expensive security mechanisms. Revenues would mostly come not from personal data, with users relying primarily on direct payment (for services, products and the like), for a grand total of some 678 billion EUR by 2025, the lowest total of all four scenarios for Internet services, but probably not for the ICT industry as a whole.

Internet development scenarios up to 2025: global Internet services market (bn €)
internet-development-scenarios-up-to-2025-global-internet-services-market

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: IDATE, in The Future Internet in 2025, November 2014

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