IoT : The Internet of Things
Connected objects were everywhere and IoT is now becoming the Internet of everything.
Connected cars attracted a lot of attention with connected vehicles on most of equipment manufacturers’ and MNOs’ booths.
Renault’s CEO made a keynote where he presented the timetable for assisted driving. According to Mr. Carlos Ghosn, despite their numerous initiatives and some acquisition rumours, Internet giants are not rivals to car manufacturers but allies, as they consider electric cars and they help car makers to promote electric cars.
Ford had even its own booth presenting the electric vehicles (both passenger and entreprise cars) with dedicated solutions. In the meantime, Vodafone presented a Porsche Panamera model equipped with its new Telematics solution since the Cobra acquisition.
Smart is also getting traction in the IoT space. In the “innovation city” hall (space dedicated to the connected objects), through the AT&T offering (Digital life) where the home could control through the smartphone and even through the connected car (equipped with an AT&T SIM card). When approaching the home, the car can trigger the opening of gate by itself for instance (pre-programmed distance).
While 5G is already in the tracks, very low throughput network technologies are also under the spotlights. After the recent release of its 100 MEUR fundraising campaign among telecom operators, Sigfox was also on everyone’s lips at the MWC. Among the main new shareholders, Telefonica confirmed its strategic investment and its willingness to integrate the technology into its portfolio to address additional verticals and applications.
The GMA (Global M2M Association) also announced a strategic collaboration with Gemalto and Ericsson to provide a Multi-Domestic Service based on a single SIM (using the eUICC technology) helping global enterprises (chiefly from the automotive and consumer electronics segments) capitalize on the growth of connected devices.
Growing market but still key challenges though
During his keynote, if AT&T Wireless CEO predicted that the smart phone will be the remote control of everything in the next few years, he also pointed out the key challenges to address in order to make the IoT market grow significantly:
• Privacy concerns
• Effortless (ease of use)
Data about devices and their users is generated in real-time, often by default and without the user being aware or having choice (especially for free apps). There is a need for a different approach to giving users transparency, choice and control over their data and privacy.
Generally user has a single choice : accept or not using the service, there should be gradual approach (like sharing some id attributes but not all of them).
Privacy could be a competitive stick for service providers, as users are becoming more aware of privacy.
Facebook in emerging countries
• Airtel: “Operators and Facebook are like the beauty and the beast, but the beast (facebook) is becoming more human nowadays”. Airtel was reluctant to introduce Facebook because of VoIP threat. Is looking at it like the “boiling milk”.
• Millicom, Telenor: have seen ARPU rise thanks to facebook launching, very promising for them.
• Wikipedia has the same approach of “Wikipedia zero”, dealing with operator to provide data access for free.
More informations about IDATE's expertise and events :
Nouveau cycle de conférences de prospective numérique sur les enjeux de l’Internet, de la télévision et des télécoms à 2025
A l’occasion de la sortie de la nouvelle édition de son DigiWorld Yearbook, l’IDATE présente son nouveau cycle de conférences de prospective numérique sur les enjeux de l’Internet, de la télévision et des télécoms à 2025 !
A partir des analyses des experts de l’IDATE, les débats seront animés par Marjorie Paillon, Journaliste, Tech 24, Philippe Escande, Rédacteur en Chef, Le Monde et Gilles Babinet, avec les contributions exceptionnelles de :
IDATE announces 2.3 billion LTE subscriptions worldwide by the end of 2018, generating revenue of close to €700 billion
IDATE forecasts than more than 500 million LTE subscriptions worldwide, representing 7% of total SIM cards (Q4 2014):
- Top three countries for LTE subscriptions: USA, Japan, South Korea at end of 2013 and June 2014.
- China jumps into fourth place mid-2014, expected to rank second at end 2014.
- USA represented 45% of the total in 2013 and will account for 38% end 2014.
Total LTE revenues are expected to more than double in 2014. They tripled in 2013:
- IDATE expects 160 billion EUR in 2014, 11% of total mobile revenues.
Country leaders have now reached (or almost reached) nationwide LTE population coverage: Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia and USA.
By the end of 2018 we forecast, overall, there will be more than two billion LTE subscriptions worldwide (2.3 billion) or 29% of total SIM cards.
In terms of technology, 2014 is the year of:
- LTE-LTE-Advanced features deployment, especially carrier aggregation (LTE-A launched in June 2013 by SK Telecom);
- VoLTE services introduction;
- First LTE broadcast deployment.
LTE subscription forecasts, 2014-2018 (million)
Top 10 LTE markets by subscriber numbers (million, estimates in italics), mid-2014
LTE coverage (% of the population, mid-2014)
Source: IDATE, in World LTE market, December 2014
IDATE publishes a range of reports on the core issues surrounding mobile market technologies and services around the globe:
- LTE USA
- World Mobile Spectrum
- New Frequency Band Spectrum
- World LTE market
- Mobile Advertising
Valérie CHAILLOU Head of Research, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE
Accelerated growth in FTTH/B coverage from incumbents and enhancement in competition from new entrants, even in mature markets
In 2014, the dynamism of European markets (EU-35) was impressive: the number of subscribers reported the highest growth since end 2010 (nearly 55% increase). In terms of coverage, the increase reached 43%. This dynamism is led by countries such as Spain, where players have clearly played an important role and finally overpassed their initial objectives. There were nearly 14.6 million FTTH/B subscribers and more than 59 million homes passed in the EU-35 at end 2014.
In Spain, the incumbent Telefonica has decided to accelerate its rollouts aiming at covering 10 million households at end year, compared to less than 4 million at end 2013. This impressive growth and associated commercial strategy had a concrete impact on the Spanish market where, during the year, there were nearly 800,000 new FTTH subscribers.
Another noteworthy country is Romania where the leading players have decided to change their strategy and finally deploy FTTH/B when they were firstly focused on FTTx/LAN architecture in previous years. Therefore, the number of subscribers has considerably increased taking into account a total churn from end users. Those countries are followed by France, Turkey and the Netherlands (where, respectively, 25%, 24% and 39% of FTTH/B subscribers are new 2014 subscribers).
Elsewhere, Sweden still devotes to be highlighted: the latest trend in the country is to focus more and more on the single-dwelling units market which was not the first target of players involved in FTTH/B. The demand is steadily increasing since 2013 and, even if more complex and costly to deploy, FTTH to single-dwelling units is becoming a commodity. This is even truer for local fibre network players, involved in local scale rollouts, which have devoted half of their investments in targeting single-dwelling units in 2014. The Swedish incumbent was also very active in 2014, with more than 300,000 new Homes Passed yoy and an increase of around 31% in terms of FTTH/B Broadband subscribers. Then, the competitive landscape is also moving thanks to the involvement of smaller players that have strong ambition and get involved by acquiring local fibre networks previously owned by municipalities. Such trend should help Sweden keep a leading position on the European FTTH/B market.
On other markets, FTTH/B subscriptions also increased significantly. A part from Spain, the most performing country in 2014, we can mention the Netherlands where the number of FTTH/B subscribers has increased by 65%. France, Portugal, Turkey and Switzerland have also shown steady growth, in line with the trend we had already noted in 2013, with between 32 and 79% growth rate in the subscribers basis.
In terms of players involved in FTTH/B projects, alternative carriers are still leading the way, representing a 45% of the total homes passed in EU35 at end 2014 (67% considering EU39, which shows the important role of those players in Russia and Ukraine!). Among them, we can note this year the interesting role of recently entered players in countries considered as mature such as in Sweden and the Netherlands. Most of those players are backed with investment funds that help them strengthen their FTTH/B strategies.
The number of local authorities launching FTTH/B rollout projects on their territory has decreased a little bit in 2014 but they still represent only 9% of homes passed in EU35. Few new projects have been concretely launched by local authorities noted during 2014. There are some interesting rollouts in France, still in the context of the national program for superfast broadband, but most of them are still in the very beginning of the process. They represent some 600,000 homes passed end 2014.
Then, of course, incumbents are important players in all European countries. They represent 46% of HP in EU35 at end 2014, +3% compared to 2013. Several incumbents have considerably accelerated their rollouts in 2014. As in 2013, the most dynamic is Telefonica in Spain, but with a much more impressive growth: from 1.7 new Homes Passed in 2013, Telefonica reached more than 6 million new Homes Passed in 2014. Then come Orange in France (+897,000 HP), TeliaSonera in Sweden (+416,000 HP), KPN/Reggefiber in the Netherlands (+312,000 HP) and Turk Telekom in Turkey (+300,000 HP). It is also very interested to note the quite recent involvement of Bezeq in Israel, which decided to upgrade its infrastructure to FTTB: more than 1 million homes are now passed with FTTB but no services are available yet on the network. The operator is still focused on providing VDSL2 based services to end users for the moment, but it is betting on the need for higher speed rates in the near future and it is preparing itself to be able to provide required solutions very rapidly.
Number of FTTH/B subscribers per country in Europe (countries with more than 200 K subscribers)
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe
Number of FTTH/B homes passed per country in Europe (countries with more than a million homes passed)
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe
When enlarging the analysis to EU39, Russia and Ukraine are still very specific markets. Their respective demographic characteristics are so different from other countries that the comparison is not always very relevant. However, both markets are quite dynamic, with respectively +50 and +15% in terms of subscribers basis.
Regarding the technology deployed, Ethernet is still players’ first choice across the EU-39, and represented 66% of all FTTH/B rollouts at end 2014.
As concerns network architecture, most new deployments concerned FTTH which now represent 41% of homes passed at end 2014 (vs 34% one year ago). However, FTTB is still the favourite configuration as it allows them to avoid the issues that come with installing fibre on private property, and especially MDUs – i.e. having to negotiate with each property owner.
1 The term EU-35 refers to the EU-28 countries –Cyprus + Andorra, Iceland, Israel, Macedonia, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland and Turkey.
The EU-39 refers to the EU-35 + the four CIS Countries: Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Russia.
>> Our study about FTTH/B are interresting you ? Go on our store.
Deputy CEOs of IDATE
Deputy CEOs of IDATE
A point of view published in Les Echos 12th of february 2015
There is quite a crowd of candidates jostling to become our entertainment operators, our personalised content access platform. Heading the ranks is the famous GAFA foursome, i.e. Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon. Each of these four giants has managed to grow its business by leveraging their initial disruptive innovation, which quickly expanded into other arenas: a search engine that became the world’s biggest ad broker, a genius hardware manufacturer that invented the app store, a social networking site now poised to become a viral content distribution platform, and an online bookshop that has become a global one-stop-shop for every product imaginable. A power that is measured in superlative figures: billions of users, record-breaking revenue, the biggest cash flows and the highest market caps… Not to mention the advantages of being a ubiquitous global brand: the ability to create local versions of online products quickly across the planet, and an apparently unquenchable thirst for diversification that today includes robots, online banking, virtual reality, cloud computing services and, so, content.
The virtuous circle of Netflix
Can Netflix carve itself a place alongside these giants? Its success lies is keeping the promise of unlimited video, with a strong emphasis on TV series. A simple and efficient product that seduced American viewers with its ultra competitive price, compared to what cable companies charge. And it now appears poised to be embraced by Europeans as well, even the younger ones who are used to getting their videos for free via streaming, but seem to be willing to pay €8 a month to access the service.
But the power of the model also lies in a service that is built around the Web’s most popular content: video, which already accounts for close to 60% of open Internet traffic in France. Added to this is Netflix’s ability to invest massively in the most sought-after creative content today: TV series. Avoiding the distribution costs of a commercial intermediary, which account for close to 50% of HBO’s business model, Netflix can finance the production of original TV series. Starting out as just one content distributor among many, the firm from Los Gatos, in the heart of Silicon Valley, soon became a true master of the genre. A genre that may well become the emblem of the early part of this century, in the same way that theatre, the novel or cinema were for previous centuries – with the potential to lay claim to the moniker of major art form, attracting the finest writers, the best actors and huge production budgets. Much as stories serialised in the written press were once amalgamated into popular novels, television series are now being binge watched, and no longer viewed by a single episode a week. In the hands of the teams at Netflix, the series is becoming a precious weapon, at once capable of securing customer loyalty with popular series like House of Cards, of opening up new markets as with the brand new series, Marco Polo, which is aimed squarely at the Asian market, and negotiating their local bona fides, as they have in France with their commitment to produce a series like Marseille locally.
An all-in-one subscription for content?
Netflix being propelled to the rank of Internet giant also rests on the supposition that the success of the all inclusive subscription to TV programmes can be expanded to include other content, in the near future. We already have unlimited subscriptions to music (Spotify and Deezer), print media (Relay.Com), video games (OnLive) and books (Oyster and Amazon, of course). But we should also note that the lines are shifting, as Pascal Nègre, President and CEO of Universal Music France, recently touted these services as the ultimate means of saving the revenue of one of the first industries in the firing line of the digital revolution. Meanwhile publishers are still debating the wisdom of applying the model to books, with most coming out against it.
As veteran specialists struggle to introduce viable subscription plans, an outside player, armed with a cross-media universal subscription model could emerge. Netflix could be the promoter in chief, buoyed up by the success of its video-centric model. It could carry that model over to other content, and overtake not just traditional players, but even Amazon, Apple and Google which, although already well entrenched in this market, have thus far failed to demonstrate any great skill. This would mark a true disruption. By dominating the universal content subscription, in the same way that Amazon has become an all-in-one store, Netflix would become our main provider of paid access to all content. A veritable earthquake that would completely shake up the way culture industries’ value chains are organised. It would also undoubtedly pave the way for a whole series of changes: cross-cutting recommendations covering all manner of content, accessing an article in the press the way we currently access songs, paying authors according to the size of their readership…
Netflix stepping into this closed circle of giants would confirm one of the Internet’s key maxims: winner takes all. In a globalised market, a single player dominates each segment. But the GAFA foursome have not yet lost the content battle, nor are they ready to lay down their arms.
Jean-Dominique Séval and Gilles Fontaine, Deputy CEOs of IDATE
Head of "Video Distribution" Practice
IDATE has released its White Paper on personalised video consumption, explored through the development of network based programme recording made possible by network PVR (nPVR) technology.
For Jacques Bajon, Head of IDATE’s Video Distribution Practice and author of this report, “consumers are taking control and shifting gradually from passive viewers to active participants in their consumption of TV services. Recording programmes is a major example of this shift. Network based recording and storage functions thanks to nPVR systems is a solution that makes it possible to strengthen the synergies between linear and on-demand TV services, paving the way for a win-win model for consumers, rights holders and network operators”.
The cloudification of TV
The network PVR (nPVR) is an evolution of PVR which moves the storage of programme recordings to operators’ servers.. It is thus part of a wider process of deployment of platforms in the area of video distribution into “the cloud”, i.e. the moving of distribution features from the home television to remote servers. This “cloud” approach to managing video content is being progressively adopted due to the flexibility given to the editors of TV services, network operators and consumers.
Distributors around the world that have implemented this solution are many, especially in Europe, seeking to capitalise on the positive externalities for all of the parties involved:
• The user benefits from an improvement of the recording feature, now available on all viewing devices. In addition, a new population is becoming eligible for the facilities of digital recording, without bearing the cost of expensive equipment.
• Rights holders rely on networking solutions to better monitor the use of their content outside linear programming, create a new link with television viewers/users and thus better monetise that content. Influential in terms of programmes, TV channels can then promote the relationship between linear and non-linear offers and find new revenue leverage based on cumulative audiences. This evolution applies more and more in a secure environment that does not necessarily question the rights holders’ remuneration systems.
• The network operator sees in the deployment of nPVR the possibility of an optimisation of the costs of digital recording solutions in comparison with hard drives deployed in homes. These gains could allow operators to invest in the ergonomics and functionalities of the services, which are now the heart of the added value of video content distribution.
With the consumer gaining flexibility in video use, rights holders transforming the threat of delinearisation into an opportunity for better exploitation of their content and operators able to better manage those services operationally, there is the possibility of creating a virtuous circle, made possible through nPVR solutions.
Map of nPVR deployments in Europe
Samuel Ropert, Project Leader of this report
Forecasts up to 2018: markets spurred by innovation and connected devices
Coinciding with CES 2015, IDATE is publishing its latest reports on the wearables and consumer electronics (CE) sectors – providing readers with the latest news on market developments by type of product and by region.
In 2018, 123 million wearables will be sold, representing a 70% CAGR over the estimated over 20 million in 2014.
• Smart watches will lead the wearables market from 2015, thanks to a more mature market overall and the release of the Apple Watch in early 2015.
• The wristband sales units should decrease from 2017 onwards as their main features will probably have been embedded into smart watches and these should be cheaper thanks to economies of scale.
• Sales of connected glasses should be marginal in volume as many doubts have arisen around the real involvement of developers providing innovative applications. Moreover, the price is very discouraging for the mass market for now as it reaches 1,500 USD.
Ongoing rise in CE device sales up to 2018
CE device sales will grow from 2.4 billion units in 2014 to 3.6 billion in 2018 or by an average 8.6% a year: This includes the sale of televisions, cable, satellite, terrestrial and IP STBs, computers, smartphones, tablets, home and handheld consoles, DMAs, Blu-ray players and DVRs.
Growth will be carried by portable media device and digital media box sales
• Portable media devices (smartphones, tablets, handheld consoles):
- Will be the most dynamic CE segment: +12.3% annual growth, on average, from 2014 to 2018.
- Smartphones and tablets becoming more and more popular.
• Digital media Boxes (home consoles, DMA, DVR, Blu-ray players): The growth in sales will be solid and steady up to 2018: an average +9.8% per year.
• TV segment (+1.4% a year, on average) will show signs of recovery: Between 2006 and 2012, households outfitted themselves with smart–LED–HD1080p televisions. The slump in sales that began in 2012 is expected to last until 2015. The arrival of value-added smart TVs, along with a drop in the price of UHD and OLED sets, should help pull TV sales out of their funk starting in 2016.
• Computer and STB segments will enter a period of structural decline
- STB sales (+1.2% a year, on average) will increase slightly between 2014 and 2017, before dropping due to an acceleration of the cord-cutting phenomenon in developed countries, and to the cloudification of devices.
- Computers (-4.2% a year, on average): as tablets continue to become more popular, computer sales will start to shrink in 2015. Little by little, the tablet is becoming the personal computing device of choice, and edging out the classic computer.
The 2014 digiworld summit "drawn from life" by Aurélie Bordenave, alias Léely. Discover all the strong moments. (texts are in french or in english)
Plenary: Business models, Rethinking the telcos business models in the 5G era
Keynote : Smart Glasses
Business models: Rethinking the telcos business models in the 5G era
Disruptive innovations: one step towards 5G
Smart City & Mobile living
Seminar "TV everywhere"
Seminar : "Business models: M2M & Internet of Things - Smarter objects, smarter processes"
Europe on the rebound ?
TV & facing Mobility
Le digiworld summit 2014 a réuni autour des questions de la mobilité près de 1 200 participants et 140 speakers du monde numérique. Les vidéos des moments forts de ces deux journées.
- L'interview de Laurent Solly, DG de Facebook France
- L'interview de Carlos Moreno, "La ville nous parle"