19Feb/142

Inventory of FTTH/B in Europe

CHAILLOU_Valérie

 

Valérie CHAILLOU

Head of Research, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE

 

A noticeable new impetus from some FTTH/B incumbents with a significant impact on coverage growth

Europe (EU-35) reported a solid 33% increase in the number of FTTH/B subscribers in 2013. FTTH/B coverage continues to progress fast in Europe with a growth of 22% in the period. There were more than 9.5 million FTTH/B subscribers in the EU-35 at end 2013, and nearly 41 million homes passed.

During 2013, several countries showed a real dynamism both in terms of coverage and take up rates. Even with not comparable to other larger markets due to its demographic characteristics, Switzerland is leading the panorama in terms of percentage of new subscribers in the total FTTH/B subscribers' basis (70% of FTTH/B subscribers at end 2013 are new subscribers). The country is followed by much larger markets such as Turkey, Spain and Poland (where, respectively, 46%, 39% and 32% of FTTH/B subscribers are new 2013 subscribers). In Turkey, the competition between Turk Telekom and Turkcell SuperOnline is very strong and, even if entered later on the market, the incumbent has now overpassed its competitor in terms of coverage.

Number of FTTH/B subscribers per country in Europe

(countries with more than 200 K subscribers)
Number of FTTH/B suscribers per country in Europe

Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe

Elsewhere in Europe, pioneering Scandinavian countries, sometimes already considered as mature, are still leading the European market. The Danish FTTH/B market grew by 30% in 2013 in terms of number of subscribers. This growth is mostly due to the dynamism of Waoo!, the joint venture created by 15 utilities, a very innovative and rare model in Europe: all utilities provide services under the same commercial brand name but operate their own independent and local networks. In Finland, such as in neighbouring countries, many local players are deeply involved in FTTH/B rollouts, without waiting for one large player to deploy a nationwide infrastructure. This seems to correspond to end users' needs: FTTH/B connections are more and more considered as a utility and therefore often included in the apartment monthly rental. Then, Sweden still shows an interesting dynamism: in 2013, the number of subscribers increased by 18%.

Then, on other markets, FTTH/B subscriptions also increased significantly. In the total, 16 countries present a 30% or more growth in terms of subscribers in 2013, among which France, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, and even Germany and the UK, not known as exemplary countries as regards FTTH/B strategy.

In terms of players involved in FTTH/B projects, alternative carriers are still leading the way, representing a 45% of the total homes passed in EU35 at end 2013 (nearly 68% considering EU39, which shows the important role of those players in Russia and Ukraine!). Among them, we can note the dynamism of Vodafone which significantly increased its coverage in both Portugal and Spain.

Number of FTTH/B homes passed per country in Europe

(countries with more than a million homes passed)
FTTH/B homers passed per country in Europe

Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe

The number of local authorities launching FTTH/B rollout projects on their territory is increasing a little bit but they still represent only some 11.9% of homes passed in EU35. Few new projects launched by local authorities have been noted during 2013. There are some interesting rollouts in France in the context of the national program for superfast broadband, but most of them are still in the very beginning of the process. They represent some 450,000 homes passed end 2013.

Then, of course, incumbents are important players in all European countries. They represent 43.1% of HP in EU35 at end 2013, +5% compared to 2012. Several incumbents have considerably accelerated their rollouts in 2013. The most dynamic is Telefonica in Spain, with 1.3 million new homes passed between December 2012 and December 2013. Then come Orange in France (+849,000 HP), Turk Telekom in Turkey (+500,000 HP), KPN/Reggefiber in the Netherlands (+385,000 HP) and TeliaSonera in Sweden (+350,000 HP). The recent involvement of Swisscom in Switzerland is also noticeable: the incumbent, previously much more focused on FTTN+VDSL, has decided to accelerate its FTTH coverage and added 198,000 new homes passed to its footprint in 2013.

More data on our FTTx Whitepaper Updated with 2014 figures

More information on Worldwide panorama of FTTx rollout Status report & database

19Feb/142

Ultra-fast broadband world market

CHAILLOU_Valérie

 

Valérie CHAILLOU

Head of Research, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE

 

Ultra-fast broadband revenues will grow by 95% over the 5 next years to reach 182 billion EUR in 2017


We have released the latest issue of our World FTTx database, which is part of our ongoing service covering the ultra-fast broadband market. It provides key data on this market across the globe, covering more than 70 countries and 150 key players, and providing forecasts up to 2017.

Valérie Chaillou, FTTx lead analyst at IDATE, notes “growth perspectives remains still high when superfast technologies (For definition of superfast platforms we have considered here 3 main architectures: FTTH/B, FTTN and FTTLA) represent 22% of broadband access subscriptions at mid-2013, and we expect ultra-fast broadband revenues will grow by 95% over the 5 next years to reach 182 billion EUR in 2017”

Compared growth of VDSL and FTTH/B subscribers, 2012-2017 & Breakdown of Ultra-fast broadband technologies, at mid-2013

Source: IDATE, December 2013

• Eastern Europe will see its take up rate increase from 28% to 49% in 5 years, much higher than in Western Europe during all the period, from 21% at end 2012 to 32% at end 2017.

• FTTH/B is the leading ultra-fast broadband solution, far from FTTLA then VDSL : FTTH/B represents 66% of FTTx subscriptions at mid 2013, compared to 22% for FTTLA and 12% for FTTN+VDSL

• But the regional breakdown is very heterogeneous
- FTTH/B is clearly the technology of choice in APAC whereas
- FTTLA is leading the ultra-fast broadband market in Western Europe and North America.
- VDSL is a technology of choice for several European incumbents.
- Latin America and Middle East countries are at the very beginning of their NGA rollouts: they will participate to the global growth of superfast broadband more and more in the coming years.

• There are still questions from large players regarding the opportunity to deploy FTTH/B or VDSL, mainly in Europe.
- Several parameters are to be taken into account among which, of course, the required investment. Nevertheless FTTH/B rollouts did progress in certain European countries which are encouraging at a time when EU Telcos are seeing their margins shrinking.
- Some players are betting on the future capacities of copperbased networks.

Top 10 FTTx worldwide players, at end 2013

Source: IDATE, December 2013

FTTH Operators ranking: 6 Asian and 4 American telcos make up the world’s Top 10

Only one player involved in large FTTN+VDSL deployment among them (AT&T), then two cablecos
upgrading their infrastructures to FTTLA (Comcast and TWC). 7 operators among this top 10 have choosen the FTTH/B technology.

More data on our FTTx Whitepaper Updated with 2014 figures

More information on Worldwide panorama of FTTx rollout Status report & database

4Feb/140

Sorry, but this post is not available in English

24Jul/13Off

Superfast broadband: world market

CHAILLOU_ValérieValérie CHAILLOU

Head of Research, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE

 

Superfast broadband revenue set to grow by 95% over the 5 next years, to reach €182 billion in 2017

 

“The superfast broadband market’s growth potential is greater than ever,” says Valerie Chaillou who heads up IDATE’s FTTx Watch service. “We expect to see superfast broadband revenue grow by 95% over the 5 next years, to reach €182 billion in 2017. Keeping in mind that, at the end of 2012, superfast technologies (FTTH/B, FTTN and FTTLA) accounted for only 21% of broadband access subscriptions.”

 

FTTH/B remains the leading superfast broadband solution worldwide, way ahead of FTTLA and VDSL

FTTH/B represented 69% of FTTx subscriptions at the end of 2012, compared to 20% for FTTLA and 11% for FTTN+VDSL. But the regional breakdown remains very disparate:
• FTTH/B is clearly the technology of choice in APAC, whereas FTTLA is leading the superfast broadband system in Western Europe and North America;
• VDSL is the technology of choice for several European incumbents;
• It is very early days for NGA rollouts in Latin America and the Middle East. These countries will make an increasingly large contribution to the global spread of superfast broadband in the coming years.

Several top telcos are still grappling with the choice between an FTTH/B or VDSL rollout, especially in Europe:

• Several parameters need to be taken into account – starting with cost. FTTH/B rollouts have nonetheless moved forward in several European countries – which is encouraging at a time when the EU’S telcos are seeing their margins shrink.
• Meanwhile, some players are betting on the future capacity of legacy copper networks.

Part of FTTx Architectures, Worldwide

Part of FTTx Architectures, Worldwide

Source: IDATE, FTTx Watch

 

FTTx customer rankings: 6 Asian and 4 American telcos make up the world’s Top 10

Only one carrier involved in large-scale FTTN+VDSL rollouts in the top 10 (AT&T), and two cablecos that are upgrading to FTTLA (Comcast and TWC). All three operate in the United States.

 

Top 10 worldwide FTTx players, at end 2012

Top 10 worldwide FTTx players, at end 2012

Source: IDATE, FTTx Watch

 

This analysis is an extract from our World FTTx Markets - Database & Status Report which we propose within our ongoing monitoring of the worldwide FTTx market.

2Jul/13Off

Next Gen Networks : reaching the DAE

CHAILLOU_ValérieValérie CHAILLOU

Head of Research, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE


Deployment costs & access market revenue in Europe

The goals set by the European Commission for ultra-fast broadband (UFB) are ambitious. By 2020, they aim to provide all European households with ubiquitous coverage of 30 Mbps and 50% of households with 100 Mbps access.

Cost of NGN deployment for reaching the goals of the DAE

NGN deployments are underway in all countries of the European Union but are progressing at very different rates from one country to the other. Some governments have created national programs that lay down their own goals to try and accelerate deployments, through both private operators and public players. IDATE has published a report in which NGN deployment costs have been modeled according to various scenarios. We will look closely at three of these: the "Base Case" scenario, which considers a gradual evolution of current NGN access; the "Vectoring" scenario, which anticipates improvements in copper-based technologies to reach the speeds laid out by the DAE; and the "FTTH" scenario, in which FTTH/B would be deployed on a massive scale and would provide the most future-proof performance in terms of speed. This last scenario is itself analyzed according to two different options (90% or 100% FTTH coverage), which lead to significantly different costs. The cumulative costs of these scenarios between 2011 and 2020 range from 71 to 230 billion EUR.

Cost comparison of NGN deployment scenarios en Europe

Total cost and cost per capita for next gen networks deployment in Europe

Source: IDATE

Revenues tied to the UFB access market

In parallel, IDATE has also conducted a study to evaluate the value of the UFB access market. This study is based on a thorough analysis of UFB services offered by key players in markets that represent different degrees of UFB maturity. This analysis allows us to identify different types of delivery model that may include one or more goals (maintaining positioning, increasing ARPU, reducing churn, unbundling withdrawal, etc.). The commercial positioning of operators will thus match a given delivery type that will depend on the level of competition, in particular. From there, it is possible to determine what the trends will be in terms of UFB ARPU over the coming years and thus assess one of the two key variables of access revenue. The other variable is the number of UFB subscribers, which should continue to grow relatively steadily through 2020 if we take all technologies into account. According to our estimates, the UFB access market is expected to reach 48 billion EUR by 2020.

Costs vs. revenues: Which scenario should we prioritize?

Despite some very interesting revenue potential (combined revenues exceed the cost of the most expensive scenario by 2020), the FTTH scenario is not really feasible (regardless of the coverage option considered) because cable operators—whose infrastructures offer faster speeds, are less expensive to upgrade and offer very good performance—will continue to play a major role in this market. The Base Case scenario seems to be a more feasible option in that it represents a continuation of what currently exists, namely a combination of technologies and accelerating deployment. However, it also presents risks, particularly the possibility of slow migration of broadband subscribers to UFB. Whichever scenario is implemented, operators will still need to invest significantly in deployment while reserving some investment for generating demand, without which their expected revenues cannot be achieved.

This analysis is an extract from our FTTx market insight which we propose within our ongoing monitoring of the worldwide FTTx market.

28Jun/13Off

Focus on FTTx in the UK

CHAILLOU_Valérie
Valérie CHAILLOU

Head of Research, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE


Inventory of the British NGA market

The British NGA market is quite complex. On the one hand, two national players, BT and Virgin Media (now acquired by Liberty Global), have deployed their FTTN networks and already reach 20 million households who can access to at least 20-30 Mbps. On the other hand, several local players have decided to get involved in FTTH (more often called "FTTP" in the UK) as they consider that this is the infrastructure of the future and that they cannot wait for national players to get involved.

Then, the government is also involved through the BDUK programme (mainly for FTTx in rural areas) but only BT and Fujitsu can apply to tenders launched by local authorities and then indirectly benefit from public funds. However, at mid-2012, Fujitsu withdrew itself from two tenders (Cumbria and Wales), considering that it would be too difficult to attract RSPs to provide services over the infrastructure in those areas.

BDUK is also involved through the very recent launch of the "super-connected cities" project, aiming at ensuring the coverage of areas in large cities that would not be concerned by private investments.

Whatever the project, FTTH/B is not, and will not be, the main architecture deployed in the UK. This has been much more the case since BT announced its "FTTP on demand" pilots: the incumbent does not plan to roll out FTTP any more unless the demand is clear from end users.

199,000 FTTH/B homes passed and 17,000 FTTH/B subscribers at end-2012
• Very low take-up rate: 8.5%
• Several local players are involved in FTTH/B rollouts but they generally cover restricted territories; some interesting business models are emerging such as the B4RN and Fibre GarDen ones, involving people from the communities.
FTTN+VDSL from BT and FTTLA + DOCSIS 3.0 from Virgin Media are the leading architectures regarding superfast broadband in the UK:
20,000,000 FTTN2 homes passed,
3,341,000 FTTN subscribers.
• This will not change in the coming months if we consider the current strategy of BT
regarding FTTH roll outs ("FTTP on demand").

This analysis is an extract from our FTTx market insight which we propose within our ongoing monitoring of the worldwide FTTx market.

20Feb/13Off

Recent Fiber to the home markets showed a strong dynamism in 2012

CHAILLOU_Valérie
Valérie CHAILLOU

Director of Studies, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE

Inventory of FTTH/B in Europe

Europe (EU-35)  reported a solid 15% increase in the number of FTTH/B subscribers during second half 2012. FTTH/B coverage continues to progress fast in Europe with a growth of 12% in the period. There were nearly 7.3 million FTTH/B subscribers in the EU-35 at mid-2012, and 33.8 million homes passed.

During 2012, several countries showed a real dynamism both in terms of coverage and take up rates. Turkey is leading the Top 5 dynamic countries in terms of percentage of new subscribers in the total FTTH/B subscribers' basis, along with Ukraine, Spain, Bulgaria and Russia. The positioning of Spain -only Western European country present in the list- should be noted as the country has entered the European ranking only a few months ago and is facing an important economic downturn. The success of FTTH/B is therefore reinforced in such a tricky context.

Elsewhere in Europe, pioneering Scandinavian countries, sometimes already considered as mature, are still leading the European market. In Denmark, FTTH/B market growth is now higher than the mobile market growth. In Finland, FTTH/B connections are more and more considered as a utility and therefore often included in the apartment monthly rental. In Sweden, new services are benefiting from a large FTTH/B coverage and an important take up rate: customers used to subscribe to a FTTH/B connection to be able to reach e-governance services provided by national entities and they are now turning to other services such as Video On Demand… finally, FTTH/B is a driver for video entertainment!

On the other hand, Italy, which was also a pioneer in FTTH/B rollouts, is beginning to lag behind. Some projects involving several players have been announced but none of them has entered into operation. The strategy unveiled by the incumbent doesn't put a strong accent on FTTH/B. The increase in terms of subscribers during 2012 is one of the lowest in Europe (10%), but the potential is still large (12.7% take up rate at end 2012, far from the EU35 average of 21.6%).
In terms of players involved in FTTH/B projects, there was no upheaval in 2012. Alternative carriers are still leading the way, representing half of the total homes passed in EU35 at end 2012 (nearly 71% considering EU39).

The number of local authorities launching FTTH/B rollout projects on their territory is increasing a little bit more rapidly than other kind of players but they still represent only some 11.6% of homes passed in EU35. However, we have noted some interesting projects in Europe held by those players, such as in the UK where rural cooperatives have succeeded in motivating citizens to be financially and/or "physically" involved in rollouts (e.g. the B4RN / Broadband For the Rural North project).

Then, of course, incumbents are main players in all European countries now; they represent 38.4% of HP in EU35 at end 2012. The quite recent involvement of Turk Telekom in Turkey has largely participated in the dynamism of the country which was clearly dominated by the competitor Turckell/Superonline until then. The competition between those telcos will probably enhance the take up rate which is still lower than the European average at end 2012 (18.7% vs 25.8%).

In the UK, the situation is totally different. The incumbent BT has decided to deploy FTTC on the national scale. FTTH (mostly referred as FTTP in the UK) will now only be deployed "on demand". BT has been really aggressive in the past year and has now reached the same level of coverage than its main competitor, the cableco VirginMedia (13 million homes passed with FTTC+VDSL). A part from local projects, we do not see a very bright future for FTTH/B in the country.

Number of FTTH/B subscribers per country in Europe
(countries with more than 200 K subscribers)
= 286px

Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe

Number of FTTH/B homes passed per country in Europe   
(countries with more than a million homes passed)

Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe

A few months ago, we didn't note important changes in the leading countries. Russia and Ukraine are the main markets, both in terms of subscribers and homes passed. This is mostly due to the demographic context in those countries, as well as the rhythm for rollout. In Russia, several players are present on the national scale (Beeline, MTS, ERTelecom, Rostelecom), enhancing competition and driving tariffs down. Moreover, end users are migrating more rapidly because previous access solutions (copper networks) were not efficient enough.

Then Sweden is still a leading FTTH/B market. E-governance is a real success there and citizens are now very confident in their FTTH/B connections to now pay for new kind of services such as Video on Demand. Other TV services (linear TV) are most of the time included in the apartment monthly rental but customers are now ready to subscribe to new kind of services that they can reach whenever they want. In Sweden, the take up rate reaches 48.4% at end 2012, largely higher than European average.

Regarding the technology deployed, Ethernet is still players’ first choice across the EU-39, and represented 78% of all FTTH/B rollouts at end 2012.

As concerns network architecture, the gap between FTTH and FTTB has increased during last semester 2012 and now FTTB architecture represents 70% of rollouts at end 2012 (compared to 62% six months earlier). Players are favouring an FTTB configuration as it allows them to avoid the issues that come with installing fibre on private property, and especially MDUs – i.e. having to negotiate with each property owner.

Valerie CHAILLOU    
Director of Studies, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE
v.chaillou@idate.org

9Jul/12Off

Déploiement des réseaux Très Haut Débit par les collectivités

Gilles Fontaine

Pierre-Michel ATTALI

Responsable du Pôle Réseaux et collectivités, IDATE
 

Des projets représentant 6 millions de prises FTTH et 4,5 milliard € d'investissement à fin 2017

 
A l'occasion des Assises du Très Haut Débit co-organisé chaque année par l'IDATE et l'agence Aromates, les équipes de l'IDATE font le point sur les projets en cours et les perspectives concernant les réseaux Très Haut Débit (THD) mis en œuvre par les collectivités locales. Ces prévisions reposent sur un suivi permanent que nos équipes réalisent au niveau national sur l'action publique en matière de technologies de l'information et de la communication et sur les missions de conseil que nous réalisons pour les collectivités dans le domaine de l'aménagement numérique des territoires.

Le débat de cette journée d'échange entre toutes les parties prenantes pour le développement du THD sur les territoires permettra d'identifier les attentes des acteurs publics et les facteurs susceptibles d'accélérer les déploiements des réseaux optiques sur les territoires.

2012, la prise de conscience par les collectivités des enjeux liés au THD

En 2012, les collectivités ont une pleine conscience des enjeux liés au THD pour leurs territoires. Elles ont compris que les réseaux en fibre optique, de par leur impact sur des pans entiers de la société, dans les domaines par exemple de l'éducation, de la santé, ou encore du logement constituent une infrastructure essentielle pour le 21ème siècle, au même titre que les infrastructures mises en œuvre au 20ème siècle dans les domaines de l'eau ou encore de l'électricité.

A ce titre, le développement des réseaux THD répond très clairement à des problématiques classiques d'aménagement des territoires, qui sont de la compétence directe des acteurs publics, et notamment des collectivités locales, qui ne peuvent donc en être exclues.

Mais au-delà de la problématique d'aménagement des territoires, le déploiement des réseaux à très haut débit est perçu comme une véritable source de croissance pour l'ensemble de l'économie ainsi que de création d'emplois, pour l'essentiel non délocalisables, dans un contexte national et européen de crise économique où l'on recherche précisément des moyens de créer de la croissance.

Investir pour le long terme dans les réseaux à très haut débit, c'est donc à court terme pour les acteurs publics renforcer la croissance et l'emploi.

2012, l'année pour les collectivités de la structuration nécessaire, préalable à un large déploiement THD sur les territoires

L'année 2012 a été l'occasion pour les collectivités de mettre en place les fondations qui leur permettront de passer à une phase de large déploiement du THD sur les territoires :

  • Les Schémas Directeurs Territoriaux d'Aménagement Numérique (SDTAN), documents prospectifs établis par les collectivités et instaurés par la Loi Pintat de décembre 2009 relative à la lutte contre la fracture numérique, portent désormais sur 95 départements et 43 d'entre eux sont d'ores et déjà achevés.
  • Les collectivités réfléchissent sur la meilleure structure de portage possible pour la mise en œuvre du THD : elles ont bien compris la nécessité de se regrouper pour être plus efficaces sur un même territoire et avoir la plus grande capacité financière et nombre d'entre-elles devraient s'engager dans la mise en place d'une structure de regroupement de type syndicat mixte ouvert.
  • Les collectivités rentrent dans une phase opérationnelle en lançant des études d'ingénierie pour avoir une vision fine des conditions technico-économiques du déploiement du FTTH sur les territoires.

Bref, les collectivités ont passé ces derniers mois à se structurer et à se doter des outils pour être en mesure de déployer largement le THD sur les territoires, en passant d'une approche "artisanale" à une logique industrielle de masse.

A fin 2017, des projets des collectivités locales qui pourraient représenter 6 millions de prises FTTH pour 4,5 milliard € d'investissement …

En tenant compte des premiers projets ayant fait l'objet d'une procédure d'appel d'offres, voire d'une attribution de marché ou de délégation de service public et qui représentent plus de 2 millions de prises à réaliser, c'est un total de 6 millions de prises FTTH qui pourraient être réalisées par les collectivités locales à l'horizon 2017, pour un investissement global de 4,5 milliards €.

… sous réserve d'une amplification des cofinancements nationaux et européens et d'une meilleure prédictibilité des revenus sur les réseaux

Si les collectivités ont passé ces derniers mois à se structurer et si le "rouleau compresseur" du déploiement public va être disponible, il reste cependant à trouver le "carburant" nécessaire pour faire marcher la machine, en l'occurrence à trouver les financements pour les projets et à sécuriser les revenus qui pourraient être générés sur les réseaux Très Haut Débit.

Clairement, la concrétisation des projets identifiés par les collectivités suppose une amplification des cofinancements de l'Etat et de l'Europe et davantage de prédictibilité sur les revenus, qui pourrait être atteinte grâce à une réelle volonté des opérateurs de basculer leurs abonnés ADSL vers les nouveaux réseaux optiques et une action politique forte visant à programmer à terme une extinction ordonnée des réseaux cuivre, gage de visibilité pour les investisseurs.

L’équipe Développement de l'IDATE, une expertise reconnue auprès des collectivités et des Pouvoirs publics locaux et nationaux.

Les consultants de l'Unité Développement de l’IDATE interviennent sur l’ensemble des problématiques TIC en offrant une palette de prestations répondant aux attentes de ses clients, dans les domaines des réseaux à très haut débit, des observatoires et de l'évaluation, du développement économique, et des schémas directeurs d'aménagement numérique.

Dans le domaine de l'aménagement numérique des territoires, l'IDATE a notamment réalisé les SDTAN de la Région Alsace, des Conseils Généraux de l'Essonne, du Gers, de la Loire, du Territoire de Belfort, du Val-de-Marne, du Val-d'Oise, du Syndicat mixte de l'Aire Urbaine Belfort-Montbéliard.

L'IDATE est également conseil dans la stratégie THD et assistant à maîtrise d'ouvrage du Grand Lyon, des Communautés d'Agglomération de Montpellier et Rennes Métropole, ou encore de l'Etablissement public Debitex qui porte un projet de 120 000 prises FTTH sur 27 communes de la Seine-Saint-Denis et du Val-d'Oise.

Pierre-Michel ATTALI
Responsable du Pôle Réseaux et collectivités, IDATE
pm.attali@idate.org

> Visitez notre site pour plus d'informations.

15Feb/12Off

FTTH/B in Europe : More than 28% increase in the number of subscribers in one year

Roland MONTAGNE

Director Telecoms Business Unit

 

Munich, 15 February 2012 – Europe (EU-35) reported a solid 28% increase in the number of FTTH/B subscribers in 2011. FTTH/B coverage continues to progress fast in Europe with a yearly growth of 41%. This confirms that expanding FTTH/B coverage is still the top priority for players. There were nearly 5.1 million FTTH/B subscribers in the EU-35 at end 2011, and nearly 28 million homes passed.

“Main European economies are now on tracks for FTTH/B: France presents a 34% growth in terms of subscribers in 2011, and Spain is progressing fast being very near to enter FTTH Global Ranking2,” says Roland Montagne, Director of the Telecom Business Unit at IDATE. “2011 has been a crucial year for Germany concerning FTTH. Even is the number of subscribers is still very low, competition led by local players backed by municipalities and also large deployments of DOCSIS 3.0 has forced DT to get involved on FTTH. This engagement should be a real starting point for FTTH in the country.”

“Among CIS countries, because of its specific demographic features, Russia leads the way in terms of FTTH/B subscribers and homes passed – and the potential of the Russian market is huge, with 4.5 million FTTH/B subscribers and 12.3 million homes passed at end 2011”, comments Valérie Chaillou, lead FTTx analyst at IDATE. “Ukraine is also home of more than half a million FTTH/B subscribers, and we expect to see new players becoming involved in FTTH/B deployments in the near future.”

Current status of FTTH/B rollout projects at the end of 2011

 

As in previous years, IDATE has been commissioned by the FTTH Council Europe to provide an overview of the status of FTTH/B rollouts across Europe at the end of 2011. To date, the Institute has identified around 260 FTTH/B projects in the EU-35.
The first type of player to become involved in FTTH/B deployments was alternative carriers which singlehandedly account for 55% of FTTH/B homes passed in Europe. Alternative carriers have performed rollouts in France, Italy, Germany, Sweden and in Eastern Europe (Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania, and Bulgaria).

We include cable companies in this category as they are often involved in large-scale FTTB network rollouts – with examples that include Numericable in France and ER Telecom in Russia. Cablecos have the advantage of not having to negotiate building-by-building to access homes since the coaxial outlet is already installed plus, in a great many instances, the civil engineering to pull the fibre to the foot of the building has already been performed.

Another category of stakeholder is local authorities and regional power companies (which are often owned by public authorities). While this category represents only 13% of homes passed for fibre at the end of 2011, it accounts for the largest number of FTTH/B projects, most of which are small scale ones – covering only a local territory. Their involvement will probably increase in other countries such as Italy but also France, and the UK through national programs.

These players can encounter difficulties when taking on the business of operator which usually has no correlation with their core responsibilities. To help alleviate these difficulties, we are seeing some of these small-scale rollouts being grouped together to form a network – with examples that include Stedenlink in the Netherlands, Netixopen in Finland and, in the form of an ISP, Waoo in Denmark.

This allows the parties involved not only to pool their expertise but also to create a brand and to build alarge customer base (to attract TV broadcasters, for instance). The other category of player worth mentioning is incumbent carriers which account for 33% ofFTTH/B homes passed in Europe. Virtually all of Europe’s incumbent carriers are either now involved in FTTH/B rollouts, are gearing up to it or are in the planning stages. Even those who originally opted for an FTTN+VDSL solution, such as KPN, Swisscom and now BT and Deutsche Telecom, are turning their attention to FTTH – in many cases as a result of the growing competitive pressure created by cable companies’ and local authorities’ fibre initiatives.

Excluding Russia, which leads the FTTH/B market in terms of subscribers and homes/buildings passed thanks to its demographic make-up (4.5 million FTTH/B subscribers alone), Sweden is still the leading market with 644,000 FTTH/B subscribers at end of 2011. This leadership could be challenged in the near future by countries such as France, which is already home to nearly 630,000 FTTH/B subscribers. Other countries are also reporting strong growth and are now positioned in the top 10 in terms of number of homes/buildings passed. This is true for Ukraine, Romania and Portugal which ranked 3rd, 5th and 6th at end of 2011. We should also mention that Spain is progressing fast, being very near to enter FTTH Global Ranking. Indeed with nearly 171.000 FTTH/B subscribers at end 2011, Spain is presenting the highest growth in 2011 (+184%). Scandinavian countries, and notably Sweden and Norway, still lead the way in Europe in terms of penetration rate – with 39.5% and 59.7%, respectively. Nevertheless it is now in Eastern Europe where we found also high penetration rates: Czech Republic with 42.4%, Hungary with 39.6%, Turkey with 26%.But the situation across Europe as a whole is still quite disparate as countries like Italy or France are still reporting low penetration rates (13.8% and 10.6%, respectively, lower than the EU-35 average which reaches 18.4%). Regarding the technology deployed, Ethernet is still players’ first choice across the EU-39, and represented 70% of all FTTH/B rollouts at end of 2011. As concerns network architecture, FTTB still accounted for 59% of rollouts at the end of 2011. Players are favouring an FTTB configuration as it allows them to avoid the issues that come with installing fibre on private property, and especially MDUs – i.e. having to negotiate with each property owner.

Further information about our studies and researches on our website : idate.org

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Contacts:

DigiWorld Institute by IDATE

Roland Montagne - Director Telecoms Business Unit - r.montagne@idate.org

Jeremy GEORGE - Tel+33 (0)6 10 607 808 - j.george@idate.org

13Feb/12Off

World FTTx Market : 112.6 million FTTx subscribers worldwide in mid-2011

Rolland MONTAGNE

Director Telecoms Business Unit

Montpellier, France – Within its on-going monitoring of the World FTTx Market, the DigiWorld Institute by IDATE publishes twice per year FTTx market’s key figures covering 70 countries and over 150 market players with forecasts up to 2016. At mid-2011, the worldwide growth rate in terms of FTTH/B subscribers remains high with more than 54% between mid-2010 and mid-2011 to reach a total of close to 67 million subscribers in mid-2011. Furthermore, the number of Homes/Buildings-passed worldwide accelerates increasingly, with an impressive rate of more than 47% between mid-2010 and mid-2011 which leads to nearly 179 million homes connected to fiber in mid-2011.

Worldwide FTTx market at end of June 2011 – FTTH/B remains the most widely used network configuration

 

The global FTTx market continued to grow in the first half of 2011, with a subscriber base that increased by around 15%: as of June 2011, there were more than 112.6 million FTTx subscribers around the world. This rate of growth was nonetheless well below the roughly 39% increase of the previous six months which saw a massive rise in FTTx subscriber numbers in China – a growth spurt that has since levelled off. FTTH/B remains the most widely used network configuration, accounting for over 67 million subscribers worldwide out of a total of roughly 179 million homes passed.

An analysis of the figures for the first half of 2011 reveals a certain levelling off of the global ultra-fast broadband market’s growth momentum. The strong increase in FTTx subscriber numbers during the previous six months could be attributed mainly to the Chinese market whose carriers released more information on actual penetration levels for their superfast broadband offers.

The increase in the number of homes passed is once again higher than the increase in actual subscribers, which confirms that rollouts continue to be a priority for a great many players, as they anticipate a massive uptick in demand further down the road. This is true around the globe, although situations do vary from country to country.

China has consolidated its number two spot behind Japan (if we discount the country’s FTTx + LAN subscribers). There is nevertheless a real gap in the two countries’ growth rates for December 2010 to June 2011 which stand at 14% and 5% for China and Japan, respectively. If this trend continues, it will not take long to have an impact on global rankings – and we can expect to see China overtake Japan for top spot in the not too distant future.

Russia continues to be the biggest FTTH/B market in Europe, with close to 5.2 million FTTH/B subscribers as of mid-2011. Sweden is still in the top 10 but its figures have progressed very little from six months earlier. France has been making real strides but ISPs there are still having trouble persuading broadband customers to switch to FTTH/B, and penetration rates (i.e. percentage of homes passed that actually subscribe) are still low. Meanwhile, in the rest of Europe, the countries in the East and West will soon fall behind developing nations which have much greater potential for growth.

The top 10 ranking for the biggest FTTH/B subscriber bases as of June 2011 is therefore very similar to the one for the end of 2010 – the only notable change being the fact that India has pulled ahead of Sweden.

 

Looking at the top players, all types of new-generation network combined, Asian carriers still head up the rankings, occupying seven of the top 10 positions in terms of FTTx subscribers.

China’s two main carriers now occupy the top two spots – ahead of Japan’s longstanding market leader, NTT – and they are expected to widen their lead in the coming months thanks to their rollout plans, and the fact that NTT’s subscriber base is not expected to grow that much further. The Asian market is especially disparate: China is experiencing a massive growth spurt while other markets are levelling off. Plus, a few carriers are even having to contend with losing their ultra-fast broadband customers to the competition – a prime example being SK Broadband in South Korea, whose subscriber numbers shrank by a whopping 14% during the first half of 2011.

Meanwhile telcos in the US, and especially AT&T, continue to enjoy steady growth and have been able to strengthen their position in the internet market with respect to cable companies which are gradually upgrading to DOCSIS 3.0.

Over in Europe, only Russia’s ER Telecom has made it into the top 10 rankings – coming in at number eight.

 

Contacts:

DigiWorld Institute by IDATE

Roland Montagne - Director Telecoms Business Unit - r.montagne@idate.org

Jeremy GEORGE - Tel +33 (0)6 10 607 808 - j.george@idate.org

For more information on missions & activities of the Digiworld Institute by IDATE: www.idate.org