19Feb/142

Inventory of FTTH/B in Europe

CHAILLOU_Valérie

 

Valérie CHAILLOU

Head of Research, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE

 

A noticeable new impetus from some FTTH/B incumbents with a significant impact on coverage growth

Europe (EU-35) reported a solid 33% increase in the number of FTTH/B subscribers in 2013. FTTH/B coverage continues to progress fast in Europe with a growth of 22% in the period. There were more than 9.5 million FTTH/B subscribers in the EU-35 at end 2013, and nearly 41 million homes passed.

During 2013, several countries showed a real dynamism both in terms of coverage and take up rates. Even with not comparable to other larger markets due to its demographic characteristics, Switzerland is leading the panorama in terms of percentage of new subscribers in the total FTTH/B subscribers' basis (70% of FTTH/B subscribers at end 2013 are new subscribers). The country is followed by much larger markets such as Turkey, Spain and Poland (where, respectively, 46%, 39% and 32% of FTTH/B subscribers are new 2013 subscribers). In Turkey, the competition between Turk Telekom and Turkcell SuperOnline is very strong and, even if entered later on the market, the incumbent has now overpassed its competitor in terms of coverage.

Number of FTTH/B subscribers per country in Europe

(countries with more than 200 K subscribers)
Number of FTTH/B suscribers per country in Europe

Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe

Elsewhere in Europe, pioneering Scandinavian countries, sometimes already considered as mature, are still leading the European market. The Danish FTTH/B market grew by 30% in 2013 in terms of number of subscribers. This growth is mostly due to the dynamism of Waoo!, the joint venture created by 15 utilities, a very innovative and rare model in Europe: all utilities provide services under the same commercial brand name but operate their own independent and local networks. In Finland, such as in neighbouring countries, many local players are deeply involved in FTTH/B rollouts, without waiting for one large player to deploy a nationwide infrastructure. This seems to correspond to end users' needs: FTTH/B connections are more and more considered as a utility and therefore often included in the apartment monthly rental. Then, Sweden still shows an interesting dynamism: in 2013, the number of subscribers increased by 18%.

Then, on other markets, FTTH/B subscriptions also increased significantly. In the total, 16 countries present a 30% or more growth in terms of subscribers in 2013, among which France, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, and even Germany and the UK, not known as exemplary countries as regards FTTH/B strategy.

In terms of players involved in FTTH/B projects, alternative carriers are still leading the way, representing a 45% of the total homes passed in EU35 at end 2013 (nearly 68% considering EU39, which shows the important role of those players in Russia and Ukraine!). Among them, we can note the dynamism of Vodafone which significantly increased its coverage in both Portugal and Spain.

Number of FTTH/B homes passed per country in Europe

(countries with more than a million homes passed)
FTTH/B homers passed per country in Europe

Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe

The number of local authorities launching FTTH/B rollout projects on their territory is increasing a little bit but they still represent only some 11.9% of homes passed in EU35. Few new projects launched by local authorities have been noted during 2013. There are some interesting rollouts in France in the context of the national program for superfast broadband, but most of them are still in the very beginning of the process. They represent some 450,000 homes passed end 2013.

Then, of course, incumbents are important players in all European countries. They represent 43.1% of HP in EU35 at end 2013, +5% compared to 2012. Several incumbents have considerably accelerated their rollouts in 2013. The most dynamic is Telefonica in Spain, with 1.3 million new homes passed between December 2012 and December 2013. Then come Orange in France (+849,000 HP), Turk Telekom in Turkey (+500,000 HP), KPN/Reggefiber in the Netherlands (+385,000 HP) and TeliaSonera in Sweden (+350,000 HP). The recent involvement of Swisscom in Switzerland is also noticeable: the incumbent, previously much more focused on FTTN+VDSL, has decided to accelerate its FTTH coverage and added 198,000 new homes passed to its footprint in 2013.

More data on our FTTx Whitepaper Updated with 2014 figures

More information on Worldwide panorama of FTTx rollout Status report & database

19Feb/142

Ultra-fast broadband world market

CHAILLOU_Valérie

 

Valérie CHAILLOU

Head of Research, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE

 

Ultra-fast broadband revenues will grow by 95% over the 5 next years to reach 182 billion EUR in 2017


We have released the latest issue of our World FTTx database, which is part of our ongoing service covering the ultra-fast broadband market. It provides key data on this market across the globe, covering more than 70 countries and 150 key players, and providing forecasts up to 2017.

Valérie Chaillou, FTTx lead analyst at IDATE, notes “growth perspectives remains still high when superfast technologies (For definition of superfast platforms we have considered here 3 main architectures: FTTH/B, FTTN and FTTLA) represent 22% of broadband access subscriptions at mid-2013, and we expect ultra-fast broadband revenues will grow by 95% over the 5 next years to reach 182 billion EUR in 2017”

Compared growth of VDSL and FTTH/B subscribers, 2012-2017 & Breakdown of Ultra-fast broadband technologies, at mid-2013

Source: IDATE, December 2013

• Eastern Europe will see its take up rate increase from 28% to 49% in 5 years, much higher than in Western Europe during all the period, from 21% at end 2012 to 32% at end 2017.

• FTTH/B is the leading ultra-fast broadband solution, far from FTTLA then VDSL : FTTH/B represents 66% of FTTx subscriptions at mid 2013, compared to 22% for FTTLA and 12% for FTTN+VDSL

• But the regional breakdown is very heterogeneous
- FTTH/B is clearly the technology of choice in APAC whereas
- FTTLA is leading the ultra-fast broadband market in Western Europe and North America.
- VDSL is a technology of choice for several European incumbents.
- Latin America and Middle East countries are at the very beginning of their NGA rollouts: they will participate to the global growth of superfast broadband more and more in the coming years.

• There are still questions from large players regarding the opportunity to deploy FTTH/B or VDSL, mainly in Europe.
- Several parameters are to be taken into account among which, of course, the required investment. Nevertheless FTTH/B rollouts did progress in certain European countries which are encouraging at a time when EU Telcos are seeing their margins shrinking.
- Some players are betting on the future capacities of copperbased networks.

Top 10 FTTx worldwide players, at end 2013

Source: IDATE, December 2013

FTTH Operators ranking: 6 Asian and 4 American telcos make up the world’s Top 10

Only one player involved in large FTTN+VDSL deployment among them (AT&T), then two cablecos
upgrading their infrastructures to FTTLA (Comcast and TWC). 7 operators among this top 10 have choosen the FTTH/B technology.

More data on our FTTx Whitepaper Updated with 2014 figures

More information on Worldwide panorama of FTTx rollout Status report & database

24Jul/13Off

Superfast broadband: world market

CHAILLOU_ValérieValérie CHAILLOU

Head of Research, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE

 

Superfast broadband revenue set to grow by 95% over the 5 next years, to reach €182 billion in 2017

 

“The superfast broadband market’s growth potential is greater than ever,” says Valerie Chaillou who heads up IDATE’s FTTx Watch service. “We expect to see superfast broadband revenue grow by 95% over the 5 next years, to reach €182 billion in 2017. Keeping in mind that, at the end of 2012, superfast technologies (FTTH/B, FTTN and FTTLA) accounted for only 21% of broadband access subscriptions.”

 

FTTH/B remains the leading superfast broadband solution worldwide, way ahead of FTTLA and VDSL

FTTH/B represented 69% of FTTx subscriptions at the end of 2012, compared to 20% for FTTLA and 11% for FTTN+VDSL. But the regional breakdown remains very disparate:
• FTTH/B is clearly the technology of choice in APAC, whereas FTTLA is leading the superfast broadband system in Western Europe and North America;
• VDSL is the technology of choice for several European incumbents;
• It is very early days for NGA rollouts in Latin America and the Middle East. These countries will make an increasingly large contribution to the global spread of superfast broadband in the coming years.

Several top telcos are still grappling with the choice between an FTTH/B or VDSL rollout, especially in Europe:

• Several parameters need to be taken into account – starting with cost. FTTH/B rollouts have nonetheless moved forward in several European countries – which is encouraging at a time when the EU’S telcos are seeing their margins shrink.
• Meanwhile, some players are betting on the future capacity of legacy copper networks.

Part of FTTx Architectures, Worldwide

Part of FTTx Architectures, Worldwide

Source: IDATE, FTTx Watch

 

FTTx customer rankings: 6 Asian and 4 American telcos make up the world’s Top 10

Only one carrier involved in large-scale FTTN+VDSL rollouts in the top 10 (AT&T), and two cablecos that are upgrading to FTTLA (Comcast and TWC). All three operate in the United States.

 

Top 10 worldwide FTTx players, at end 2012

Top 10 worldwide FTTx players, at end 2012

Source: IDATE, FTTx Watch

 

This analysis is an extract from our World FTTx Markets - Database & Status Report which we propose within our ongoing monitoring of the worldwide FTTx market.

2Jul/13Off

Next Gen Networks : reaching the DAE

CHAILLOU_ValérieValérie CHAILLOU

Head of Research, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE


Deployment costs & access market revenue in Europe

The goals set by the European Commission for ultra-fast broadband (UFB) are ambitious. By 2020, they aim to provide all European households with ubiquitous coverage of 30 Mbps and 50% of households with 100 Mbps access.

Cost of NGN deployment for reaching the goals of the DAE

NGN deployments are underway in all countries of the European Union but are progressing at very different rates from one country to the other. Some governments have created national programs that lay down their own goals to try and accelerate deployments, through both private operators and public players. IDATE has published a report in which NGN deployment costs have been modeled according to various scenarios. We will look closely at three of these: the "Base Case" scenario, which considers a gradual evolution of current NGN access; the "Vectoring" scenario, which anticipates improvements in copper-based technologies to reach the speeds laid out by the DAE; and the "FTTH" scenario, in which FTTH/B would be deployed on a massive scale and would provide the most future-proof performance in terms of speed. This last scenario is itself analyzed according to two different options (90% or 100% FTTH coverage), which lead to significantly different costs. The cumulative costs of these scenarios between 2011 and 2020 range from 71 to 230 billion EUR.

Cost comparison of NGN deployment scenarios en Europe

Total cost and cost per capita for next gen networks deployment in Europe

Source: IDATE

Revenues tied to the UFB access market

In parallel, IDATE has also conducted a study to evaluate the value of the UFB access market. This study is based on a thorough analysis of UFB services offered by key players in markets that represent different degrees of UFB maturity. This analysis allows us to identify different types of delivery model that may include one or more goals (maintaining positioning, increasing ARPU, reducing churn, unbundling withdrawal, etc.). The commercial positioning of operators will thus match a given delivery type that will depend on the level of competition, in particular. From there, it is possible to determine what the trends will be in terms of UFB ARPU over the coming years and thus assess one of the two key variables of access revenue. The other variable is the number of UFB subscribers, which should continue to grow relatively steadily through 2020 if we take all technologies into account. According to our estimates, the UFB access market is expected to reach 48 billion EUR by 2020.

Costs vs. revenues: Which scenario should we prioritize?

Despite some very interesting revenue potential (combined revenues exceed the cost of the most expensive scenario by 2020), the FTTH scenario is not really feasible (regardless of the coverage option considered) because cable operators—whose infrastructures offer faster speeds, are less expensive to upgrade and offer very good performance—will continue to play a major role in this market. The Base Case scenario seems to be a more feasible option in that it represents a continuation of what currently exists, namely a combination of technologies and accelerating deployment. However, it also presents risks, particularly the possibility of slow migration of broadband subscribers to UFB. Whichever scenario is implemented, operators will still need to invest significantly in deployment while reserving some investment for generating demand, without which their expected revenues cannot be achieved.

This analysis is an extract from our FTTx market insight which we propose within our ongoing monitoring of the worldwide FTTx market.

28Jun/13Off

Focus on FTTx in the UK

CHAILLOU_Valérie
Valérie CHAILLOU

Head of Research, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE


Inventory of the British NGA market

The British NGA market is quite complex. On the one hand, two national players, BT and Virgin Media (now acquired by Liberty Global), have deployed their FTTN networks and already reach 20 million households who can access to at least 20-30 Mbps. On the other hand, several local players have decided to get involved in FTTH (more often called "FTTP" in the UK) as they consider that this is the infrastructure of the future and that they cannot wait for national players to get involved.

Then, the government is also involved through the BDUK programme (mainly for FTTx in rural areas) but only BT and Fujitsu can apply to tenders launched by local authorities and then indirectly benefit from public funds. However, at mid-2012, Fujitsu withdrew itself from two tenders (Cumbria and Wales), considering that it would be too difficult to attract RSPs to provide services over the infrastructure in those areas.

BDUK is also involved through the very recent launch of the "super-connected cities" project, aiming at ensuring the coverage of areas in large cities that would not be concerned by private investments.

Whatever the project, FTTH/B is not, and will not be, the main architecture deployed in the UK. This has been much more the case since BT announced its "FTTP on demand" pilots: the incumbent does not plan to roll out FTTP any more unless the demand is clear from end users.

199,000 FTTH/B homes passed and 17,000 FTTH/B subscribers at end-2012
• Very low take-up rate: 8.5%
• Several local players are involved in FTTH/B rollouts but they generally cover restricted territories; some interesting business models are emerging such as the B4RN and Fibre GarDen ones, involving people from the communities.
FTTN+VDSL from BT and FTTLA + DOCSIS 3.0 from Virgin Media are the leading architectures regarding superfast broadband in the UK:
20,000,000 FTTN2 homes passed,
3,341,000 FTTN subscribers.
• This will not change in the coming months if we consider the current strategy of BT
regarding FTTH roll outs ("FTTP on demand").

This analysis is an extract from our FTTx market insight which we propose within our ongoing monitoring of the worldwide FTTx market.

20Feb/13Off

Recent Fiber to the home markets showed a strong dynamism in 2012

CHAILLOU_Valérie
Valérie CHAILLOU

Director of Studies, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE

Inventory of FTTH/B in Europe

Europe (EU-35)  reported a solid 15% increase in the number of FTTH/B subscribers during second half 2012. FTTH/B coverage continues to progress fast in Europe with a growth of 12% in the period. There were nearly 7.3 million FTTH/B subscribers in the EU-35 at mid-2012, and 33.8 million homes passed.

During 2012, several countries showed a real dynamism both in terms of coverage and take up rates. Turkey is leading the Top 5 dynamic countries in terms of percentage of new subscribers in the total FTTH/B subscribers' basis, along with Ukraine, Spain, Bulgaria and Russia. The positioning of Spain -only Western European country present in the list- should be noted as the country has entered the European ranking only a few months ago and is facing an important economic downturn. The success of FTTH/B is therefore reinforced in such a tricky context.

Elsewhere in Europe, pioneering Scandinavian countries, sometimes already considered as mature, are still leading the European market. In Denmark, FTTH/B market growth is now higher than the mobile market growth. In Finland, FTTH/B connections are more and more considered as a utility and therefore often included in the apartment monthly rental. In Sweden, new services are benefiting from a large FTTH/B coverage and an important take up rate: customers used to subscribe to a FTTH/B connection to be able to reach e-governance services provided by national entities and they are now turning to other services such as Video On Demand… finally, FTTH/B is a driver for video entertainment!

On the other hand, Italy, which was also a pioneer in FTTH/B rollouts, is beginning to lag behind. Some projects involving several players have been announced but none of them has entered into operation. The strategy unveiled by the incumbent doesn't put a strong accent on FTTH/B. The increase in terms of subscribers during 2012 is one of the lowest in Europe (10%), but the potential is still large (12.7% take up rate at end 2012, far from the EU35 average of 21.6%).
In terms of players involved in FTTH/B projects, there was no upheaval in 2012. Alternative carriers are still leading the way, representing half of the total homes passed in EU35 at end 2012 (nearly 71% considering EU39).

The number of local authorities launching FTTH/B rollout projects on their territory is increasing a little bit more rapidly than other kind of players but they still represent only some 11.6% of homes passed in EU35. However, we have noted some interesting projects in Europe held by those players, such as in the UK where rural cooperatives have succeeded in motivating citizens to be financially and/or "physically" involved in rollouts (e.g. the B4RN / Broadband For the Rural North project).

Then, of course, incumbents are main players in all European countries now; they represent 38.4% of HP in EU35 at end 2012. The quite recent involvement of Turk Telekom in Turkey has largely participated in the dynamism of the country which was clearly dominated by the competitor Turckell/Superonline until then. The competition between those telcos will probably enhance the take up rate which is still lower than the European average at end 2012 (18.7% vs 25.8%).

In the UK, the situation is totally different. The incumbent BT has decided to deploy FTTC on the national scale. FTTH (mostly referred as FTTP in the UK) will now only be deployed "on demand". BT has been really aggressive in the past year and has now reached the same level of coverage than its main competitor, the cableco VirginMedia (13 million homes passed with FTTC+VDSL). A part from local projects, we do not see a very bright future for FTTH/B in the country.

Number of FTTH/B subscribers per country in Europe
(countries with more than 200 K subscribers)
= 286px

Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe

Number of FTTH/B homes passed per country in Europe   
(countries with more than a million homes passed)

Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe

A few months ago, we didn't note important changes in the leading countries. Russia and Ukraine are the main markets, both in terms of subscribers and homes passed. This is mostly due to the demographic context in those countries, as well as the rhythm for rollout. In Russia, several players are present on the national scale (Beeline, MTS, ERTelecom, Rostelecom), enhancing competition and driving tariffs down. Moreover, end users are migrating more rapidly because previous access solutions (copper networks) were not efficient enough.

Then Sweden is still a leading FTTH/B market. E-governance is a real success there and citizens are now very confident in their FTTH/B connections to now pay for new kind of services such as Video on Demand. Other TV services (linear TV) are most of the time included in the apartment monthly rental but customers are now ready to subscribe to new kind of services that they can reach whenever they want. In Sweden, the take up rate reaches 48.4% at end 2012, largely higher than European average.

Regarding the technology deployed, Ethernet is still players’ first choice across the EU-39, and represented 78% of all FTTH/B rollouts at end 2012.

As concerns network architecture, the gap between FTTH and FTTB has increased during last semester 2012 and now FTTB architecture represents 70% of rollouts at end 2012 (compared to 62% six months earlier). Players are favouring an FTTB configuration as it allows them to avoid the issues that come with installing fibre on private property, and especially MDUs – i.e. having to negotiate with each property owner.

Valerie CHAILLOU    
Director of Studies, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE
v.chaillou@idate.org

18Dec/12Off

Next Gen Access deployment

Roland Montagne

Roland Montagne

Head of the Telecoms Business Unit at IDATE

 

Measuring costs for each EU-27 member state to reach the Digital Agenda in Europe

 
In May 2010, the European Commission adopted its Digital Agenda policy programme. It was one of the first flagship initiatives of the EU 2020 strategy. It sets ambitious targets to provide all European households with ubiquitous coverage of 30 Mbps as a minimum and half of them with a subscription of 100 Mbps by 2020. IDATE has published recently a report providing different possible cost scenarios – with a breakdown by technology and by population density (urban, peri-urban, rural).

Today, some voices are raising concerns that the goals of the Digital Agenda (DA) will not be reached in many Member States as the necessary expenditure is beyond reach, especially in the current European economic situation. This is why this report focuses in particular on the cost of the Digital Agenda in reaching the ambitious goal of coverage of 30 Mbps and 100 Mbps, and further tries to clarify, per country, what it will be. It puts forward a theoretical model with the distinction of various scenarios involving distinct technologies, namely fixed and wireless.

"In several European countries, the rollout of FTTH networks has started and the European Union disposes already of a 40% NGA net coverage amongst all its member states. Indeed, copper local loop will ultimately be replaced by fibre, it being the medium that can guarantee an almost infinite bandwidth capacity for the future. Nevertheless, good quality copper, especially in Western Europe, and the current economic situation, could lead some telcos to consider other alternative scenarios involving VDSL, LTE or even satellite in Ka band", says Roland Montagne, Director of the Telecom Business Unit at IDATE. He adds: "The adoption of a FTTH-oriented scenario by telcos will not only depend on the amount of capex necessary but also on a viable business model. On this, telcos should be innovative not only with the services they propose but also on their pricing approach (tiered pricing) and their strategy regarding smart access."

Deployment costs by scenario

  • Four scenarios in different constellations have been modelled, including a full FTTH/B coverage scenario. Depending on the mix of technologies deployed, these scenarios will cost between 51 billion EUR and 229 billion EUR.
  • These amounts, whilst certainly substantial, are within the expected range and therefore come as a confirmation of the ambitious nature of the broadband objectives of the DAE.


*50% uptake
NOTE: Scenario names are chosen to reflect main technological characteristics, but do not express a preference for any given
technology to reach the broadband objectives of the Digital Agenda.
90% FTTH/B = 90% FTTH/B only + 10% LTE
Base case = FTTH/B+FTTLA+VDSL2+LTE
Vectoring = FTTH/B+FTTLA+VDSL Vectoring+VDSL2+LTE)
Wireless = LTE+FTTH/B

NGA Costs model

In order to build our theoretical model of the costs of reaching the DA goals, IDATE started by drawing up several assumptions about ‘overlapping’ in each country with the aim of establishing the ‘net’ number of FTTx homes passed, and thus the effective level of NGA coverage. Consolidating this in the EU27 gives a net NGA coverage rate of 41% of European households in late-2011. Among the four fixed NGA architectures considered (FTTH/B, FTTLA+DOCSIS 3.0, FTTN+VDSL and FTTx/LAN), regarding our estimates at that time, FTTH/B accounted for 22%, FTTN+VDSL for 25% and FTTLA+DOCSIS3.0 for 50% of the European NGA coverage.

Using these coverage estimates as a baseline, IDATE modelled the investment required for each of the 27 Member States to reach the broadband objectives of the Commission's DA. We also took into account, nevertheless, for each Member State, the national broadband or ultra-fast broadband plans already launched, with their associated objectives of coverage up to 2020.

We then considered no duplication of infrastructure in our cost model. Indeed, the model's output shows the minimum cost of reaching the DA targets by rolling out one single network per coverage area1.

> For more information about what we do, visit us online at: www.idate.orgwww.idate.org

18Oct/12Off

Inventory of FTTH/B in Europe

CHAILLOU_Valérie

Valérie CHAILLOU

Director of studies, DigiWorld by IDATE

 

More than sixteen percent increase in the number of subscribers for FTTH/B in Europe in first half 2012

 
Europe (EU-35)[1] reported a solid 16% increase in the number of FTTH/B subscribers during first half 2012. FTTH/B coverage continues to progress fast in Europe with a growth of 16% in the period. There were nearly 5.95 million FTTH/B subscribers in the EU-35 at mid-2012, and around 32 million homes passed.

Main European economies are now on tracks for FTTH/B: Turkey presents a 82% growth in terms of subscribers in first half 2012, and other countries, even considered as mature markets show very interesting growth rates (+31% in the Netherlands, +23% in Norway). Spain is progressing with 44% increase in the number of subscribers and then entering the FTTH Global Ranking[2]. Another country is entering this ranking at mid-2012: Luxembourg, where the government have very ambitious objectives that will probably be reached on time (80% of the households passed with 100 Mbps at end 2013, 100% at end 2015).

Among CIS countries, because of its specific demographic features, Russia leads the way in terms of FTTH/B subscribers and homes passed – and the potential of the Russian market is huge, with 5.2 million FTTH/B subscribers and 15.8 million homes passed at mid-2012. Ukraine is also home of more than a million FTTH/B subscribers (+85% increase during first semester 2012), and we expect to see new players becoming involved in FTTH/B deployments in the near future.

As in previous years, IDATE has been commissioned by the FTTH Council Europe to provide an overview of the status of FTTH/B rollouts across Europe at mid-2012. To date, IDATE has identified around 260 FTTH/B projects in the EU-35.
The first type of player to become involved in FTTH/B deployments was alternative carriers which singlehandedly account for 51% of FTTH/B homes passed in Europe. Alternative carriers have performed rollouts in France, Italy, Germany, Sweden and in Eastern Europe (Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania, and Bulgaria).

We include cable companies in this category as they are often involved in large-scale FTTB network rollouts – with examples that include Numericable in France. Cablecos have the advantage of not having to negotiate building-by-building to access homes since the coaxial outlet is already installed plus, in a great many instances, the civil engineering to pull the fibre to the foot of the building has already been performed.

Another category of stakeholder is local authorities and regional power companies (which are often owned by public authorities). While this category represents only 11% of homes passed for fibre at mid-2012, it accounts for the largest number of FTTH/B projects, most of which are small scale ones – covering only a local territory. Their involvement will probably increase in other countries such as Italy and France.

The other category of player worth mentioning is incumbent carriers which account for 37% of FTTH/B homes passed in Europe. Virtually all of Europe’s incumbent carriers are either now involved in FTTH/B rollouts, are gearing up to it or are in the planning stages. The increase in the part of incumbents in the number of homes passed is partly due to the involvement of Spanish Telefonica. Even those who originally opted for an FTTN+VDSL solution, such as KPN, Swisscom and Deutsche Telecom, are turning their attention to FTTH – in many cases as a result of the growing competitive pressure created by cable companies’ and local authorities’ fibre initiatives.

In the UK, BT has changed its FTTH strategy several times. After having announced in 2011 a very ambitious objective in terms of FTTH coverage (2.5 million HP at end 2012), it finally turned back afterwards and decided to expand FTTN to FTTH only "on demand". This solution will be available in Spring 2013, after a two-phases pilot.

There has been a noticeable change in the list of leading countries during first half 2012: France is now ahead from Sweden. Indeed, excluding Russia and Ukraine, which lead the FTTH/B market in terms of subscribers and homes/buildings passed thanks to their demographic make-up (respectively 5.2 and 1 million FTTH/B subscribers), France now counts more than 764,000 FTTH/B subscribers (+15% between December 2011 and June 2012) when Sweden stand at 688,000 subscribers (+6% in the same period). The Swedish market is beginning to show signs of large maturity and the potential for further growth is less and less important from one semester to another in the country.

However, Scandinavian countries, and notably Sweden and Norway, still lead the way in Europe in terms of penetration rate – with 40.3% and 67.1%, respectively. Nevertheless it is now in Eastern Europe where we found also high penetration rates: Czech Republic with 45.3%, Hungary with 37.4%, Russia with 33.3% and Lithuania with 29.5%.But the situation across Europe as a whole is still quite disparate as countries like Italy or France are still reporting low penetration rates (12.7% and 12.2%, respectively, lower than the EU-35 average which reaches 18.6%).

Regarding the technology deployed, Ethernet is still players’ first choice across the EU-39, and represented 78% of all FTTH/B rollouts at mid-2012.

As concerns network architecture, FTTB still accounted for 62% of rollouts at mid-2012. Players are favouring an FTTB configuration as it allows them to avoid the issues that come with installing fibre on private property, and especially MDUs – i.e. having to negotiate with each property owner.

Valerie CHAILLOU
Director of Studies, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE
v.chaillou@idate.org

> Visit our website for more information about our FTTx Watch Service.

[1] The term EU-35 refers to the EU-27 countries –Cyprus + Andorra, Croatia, Iceland, Israel, Macedonia, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland and Turkey.
The EU-39 refers to the EU-35 + the four CIS Countries: Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Russia.

[2] The FTTH Global Ranking is based on the FTTH Council's definition of FTTH/B. It includes both Fiber to the Home (FTTH), and Fiber to the Building (FTTB). The Ranking covers all countries with at least 200,000 households where the penetration of FTTH/B has reached 1% of the total number of homes.

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9Jul/12Off

The Worldwide Ultrafast-Broadband Market

Roland Montagne

Roland Montagne

Head of the Telecoms Business Unit at IDATE

 

FTTH vs LTE: 230 million compared to 900 million subscribers worldwide by 2016

 
Although there were only 9 million LTE subscribers worldwide in late 2011 compared to 220 million FTTx subscribers (88 million for FTTH/B and VDSL alone), momentum is rapidly growing in favour of mobile. In 2016, IDATE predicts that the number of LTE subscribers will exceed 900 million, compared to nearly 230 million for fixed ultrafast-broadband (FTTH/B and VDSL).

During the Ultrafast- Broadband Conference, co-organised each year by IDATE and the Aromates agency, IDATE teams will present perspectives on ultrafast-broadband (UFB) expansion. These forecasts are based on our team's worldwide continuous monitoring of investments being made by operators, country by country, project by project, and the current number of subscribers by technology. The debate can therefore be based on objective data, on this day of exchange between all parties developing these key technologies aimed at growth in new digital uses.

LTE, acceleration

Although there were only 142,000 LTE subscribers worldwide in 2010, by late 2011 that number had already increased to 9.3 million. "We expect that a significant share of LTE devices will support FDD and TDD by the end of 2013," stated Frédéric Pujol, Director of IDATE's "Mobile Network" Practice. Growth will also be stimulated by TD-LTE deployments in India, China and several other countries in Asia-Pacific, Latin America and the Middle East, as well as in Europe, though to a lesser extent.

Overall, there is definitely an acceleration in deployments that we are following, which will result in a higher than expected number of LTE subscribers, as we now expect to reach the goal of 900 million subscribers by 2016.

For Europe, the situation is different:

  • Take-off is taking longer than expected in Western Europe due to the late arrival of LTE smartphones and tablets using European frequencies. According to our forecast, Europe should have 150 million LTE subscribers by 2016.
  • Smartphones for 800 MHz and 2.6 GHz frequencies have been available since March 2012 in Germany and Sweden. Sweden already had nearly 100,000 LTE subscribers by late 2011. The anticipated arrival of smartphones in early 2012 should certainly drive growth in LTE subscribers in Germany.
  • For Spain, France, Italy and the United Kingdom, it has been confirmed that the first deployments will take place by the end of this year for commercial release in 2013.

FTTx, still very different growth

The global market for FTTx access continued to grow in 2011. There were more than 220 million FTTx subscribers worldwide by the end of the year (with nearly 56% using FTTx/LAN architecture in China) with sustained FTTx growth of more than 25% in the second half of 2011.

Roland Montagne, Director of IDATE's "Telecom" Business Unit underscored the fact that "FTTH/B architecture remains by far the most common in Europe but not in North America (6.2 million VDSL subscribers but nearly 78 million households covered by cable FTTLA + Docsis 3.0) or Asia/Pacific (124.5 million FTTx+LAN subscribers in China). In late 2011, there were 77 million FTTH/B subscribers worldwide compared to a total of about 250 million homes passed by FTTH/B."

Changes in the UFB market over the course of 2011 was marked by divergent trends demonstrated by the number of FTTx subscribers compared to the number of homes passed by FTTx. Priority remains with ultrafast broadband coverage, to meet a potential significant change in demand. This worldwide trend, however, varies from country to country.

Japan remains the world leader in terms of FTTH/B subscribers, followed closely by China. But in terms of growth, these two countries are experiencing distinctly different situations. China appears to be much more active, with a growth rate of 44% compared to 6% for Japan between June 2011 and December 2011. And this trend will only get stronger because, in the preceding half, the respective growth rates were 14% and 5%. This trend could soon result in China and Japan reversing positions in the worldwide ranking of countries with the most FTTH/B subscribers.

Even though the majority of countries in this ranking come from Asia/Pacific, the United States remains in fourth place, with nearly 8 million FTTH/B subscribers. For FTTH/B, a few European countries are holding their own alongside Russia, the leader in this region with 4.5 million FTTH/B subscribers in late 2011.

France is climbing in the rankings and is now higher than Sweden, a leading country but now having difficulty convincing the remaining households to convert to FTTH. Nevertheless, France remains a country where UFB commercial policy is still relatively unconvincing.

Roland Montagne
Head of the Telecoms Business Unit at IDATE
r.montagne@idate.org

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9Jul/12Off

Déploiement des réseaux Très Haut Débit par les collectivités

Gilles Fontaine

Pierre-Michel ATTALI

Responsable du Pôle Réseaux et collectivités, IDATE
 

Des projets représentant 6 millions de prises FTTH et 4,5 milliard € d'investissement à fin 2017

 
A l'occasion des Assises du Très Haut Débit co-organisé chaque année par l'IDATE et l'agence Aromates, les équipes de l'IDATE font le point sur les projets en cours et les perspectives concernant les réseaux Très Haut Débit (THD) mis en œuvre par les collectivités locales. Ces prévisions reposent sur un suivi permanent que nos équipes réalisent au niveau national sur l'action publique en matière de technologies de l'information et de la communication et sur les missions de conseil que nous réalisons pour les collectivités dans le domaine de l'aménagement numérique des territoires.

Le débat de cette journée d'échange entre toutes les parties prenantes pour le développement du THD sur les territoires permettra d'identifier les attentes des acteurs publics et les facteurs susceptibles d'accélérer les déploiements des réseaux optiques sur les territoires.

2012, la prise de conscience par les collectivités des enjeux liés au THD

En 2012, les collectivités ont une pleine conscience des enjeux liés au THD pour leurs territoires. Elles ont compris que les réseaux en fibre optique, de par leur impact sur des pans entiers de la société, dans les domaines par exemple de l'éducation, de la santé, ou encore du logement constituent une infrastructure essentielle pour le 21ème siècle, au même titre que les infrastructures mises en œuvre au 20ème siècle dans les domaines de l'eau ou encore de l'électricité.

A ce titre, le développement des réseaux THD répond très clairement à des problématiques classiques d'aménagement des territoires, qui sont de la compétence directe des acteurs publics, et notamment des collectivités locales, qui ne peuvent donc en être exclues.

Mais au-delà de la problématique d'aménagement des territoires, le déploiement des réseaux à très haut débit est perçu comme une véritable source de croissance pour l'ensemble de l'économie ainsi que de création d'emplois, pour l'essentiel non délocalisables, dans un contexte national et européen de crise économique où l'on recherche précisément des moyens de créer de la croissance.

Investir pour le long terme dans les réseaux à très haut débit, c'est donc à court terme pour les acteurs publics renforcer la croissance et l'emploi.

2012, l'année pour les collectivités de la structuration nécessaire, préalable à un large déploiement THD sur les territoires

L'année 2012 a été l'occasion pour les collectivités de mettre en place les fondations qui leur permettront de passer à une phase de large déploiement du THD sur les territoires :

  • Les Schémas Directeurs Territoriaux d'Aménagement Numérique (SDTAN), documents prospectifs établis par les collectivités et instaurés par la Loi Pintat de décembre 2009 relative à la lutte contre la fracture numérique, portent désormais sur 95 départements et 43 d'entre eux sont d'ores et déjà achevés.
  • Les collectivités réfléchissent sur la meilleure structure de portage possible pour la mise en œuvre du THD : elles ont bien compris la nécessité de se regrouper pour être plus efficaces sur un même territoire et avoir la plus grande capacité financière et nombre d'entre-elles devraient s'engager dans la mise en place d'une structure de regroupement de type syndicat mixte ouvert.
  • Les collectivités rentrent dans une phase opérationnelle en lançant des études d'ingénierie pour avoir une vision fine des conditions technico-économiques du déploiement du FTTH sur les territoires.

Bref, les collectivités ont passé ces derniers mois à se structurer et à se doter des outils pour être en mesure de déployer largement le THD sur les territoires, en passant d'une approche "artisanale" à une logique industrielle de masse.

A fin 2017, des projets des collectivités locales qui pourraient représenter 6 millions de prises FTTH pour 4,5 milliard € d'investissement …

En tenant compte des premiers projets ayant fait l'objet d'une procédure d'appel d'offres, voire d'une attribution de marché ou de délégation de service public et qui représentent plus de 2 millions de prises à réaliser, c'est un total de 6 millions de prises FTTH qui pourraient être réalisées par les collectivités locales à l'horizon 2017, pour un investissement global de 4,5 milliards €.

… sous réserve d'une amplification des cofinancements nationaux et européens et d'une meilleure prédictibilité des revenus sur les réseaux

Si les collectivités ont passé ces derniers mois à se structurer et si le "rouleau compresseur" du déploiement public va être disponible, il reste cependant à trouver le "carburant" nécessaire pour faire marcher la machine, en l'occurrence à trouver les financements pour les projets et à sécuriser les revenus qui pourraient être générés sur les réseaux Très Haut Débit.

Clairement, la concrétisation des projets identifiés par les collectivités suppose une amplification des cofinancements de l'Etat et de l'Europe et davantage de prédictibilité sur les revenus, qui pourrait être atteinte grâce à une réelle volonté des opérateurs de basculer leurs abonnés ADSL vers les nouveaux réseaux optiques et une action politique forte visant à programmer à terme une extinction ordonnée des réseaux cuivre, gage de visibilité pour les investisseurs.

L’équipe Développement de l'IDATE, une expertise reconnue auprès des collectivités et des Pouvoirs publics locaux et nationaux.

Les consultants de l'Unité Développement de l’IDATE interviennent sur l’ensemble des problématiques TIC en offrant une palette de prestations répondant aux attentes de ses clients, dans les domaines des réseaux à très haut débit, des observatoires et de l'évaluation, du développement économique, et des schémas directeurs d'aménagement numérique.

Dans le domaine de l'aménagement numérique des territoires, l'IDATE a notamment réalisé les SDTAN de la Région Alsace, des Conseils Généraux de l'Essonne, du Gers, de la Loire, du Territoire de Belfort, du Val-de-Marne, du Val-d'Oise, du Syndicat mixte de l'Aire Urbaine Belfort-Montbéliard.

L'IDATE est également conseil dans la stratégie THD et assistant à maîtrise d'ouvrage du Grand Lyon, des Communautés d'Agglomération de Montpellier et Rennes Métropole, ou encore de l'Etablissement public Debitex qui porte un projet de 120 000 prises FTTH sur 27 communes de la Seine-Saint-Denis et du Val-d'Oise.

Pierre-Michel ATTALI
Responsable du Pôle Réseaux et collectivités, IDATE
pm.attali@idate.org

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