19Feb/142

Ultra-fast broadband world market

CHAILLOU_Valérie

 

Valérie CHAILLOU

Head of Research, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE

 

Ultra-fast broadband revenues will grow by 95% over the 5 next years to reach 182 billion EUR in 2017


We have released the latest issue of our World FTTx database, which is part of our ongoing service covering the ultra-fast broadband market. It provides key data on this market across the globe, covering more than 70 countries and 150 key players, and providing forecasts up to 2017.

Valérie Chaillou, FTTx lead analyst at IDATE, notes “growth perspectives remains still high when superfast technologies (For definition of superfast platforms we have considered here 3 main architectures: FTTH/B, FTTN and FTTLA) represent 22% of broadband access subscriptions at mid-2013, and we expect ultra-fast broadband revenues will grow by 95% over the 5 next years to reach 182 billion EUR in 2017”

Compared growth of VDSL and FTTH/B subscribers, 2012-2017 & Breakdown of Ultra-fast broadband technologies, at mid-2013

Source: IDATE, December 2013

• Eastern Europe will see its take up rate increase from 28% to 49% in 5 years, much higher than in Western Europe during all the period, from 21% at end 2012 to 32% at end 2017.

• FTTH/B is the leading ultra-fast broadband solution, far from FTTLA then VDSL : FTTH/B represents 66% of FTTx subscriptions at mid 2013, compared to 22% for FTTLA and 12% for FTTN+VDSL

• But the regional breakdown is very heterogeneous
- FTTH/B is clearly the technology of choice in APAC whereas
- FTTLA is leading the ultra-fast broadband market in Western Europe and North America.
- VDSL is a technology of choice for several European incumbents.
- Latin America and Middle East countries are at the very beginning of their NGA rollouts: they will participate to the global growth of superfast broadband more and more in the coming years.

• There are still questions from large players regarding the opportunity to deploy FTTH/B or VDSL, mainly in Europe.
- Several parameters are to be taken into account among which, of course, the required investment. Nevertheless FTTH/B rollouts did progress in certain European countries which are encouraging at a time when EU Telcos are seeing their margins shrinking.
- Some players are betting on the future capacities of copperbased networks.

Top 10 FTTx worldwide players, at end 2013

Source: IDATE, December 2013

FTTH Operators ranking: 6 Asian and 4 American telcos make up the world’s Top 10

Only one player involved in large FTTN+VDSL deployment among them (AT&T), then two cablecos
upgrading their infrastructures to FTTLA (Comcast and TWC). 7 operators among this top 10 have choosen the FTTH/B technology.

More data on our FTTx Whitepaper Updated with 2014 figures

More information on Worldwide panorama of FTTx rollout Status report & database

30Sep/13Off

Growth of superfast broadband in North America

CHAILLOU_Valérie

Valérie CHAILLOU

Head of Research, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE

 

 

The North American superfast broadband market represents 25.3% of the worldwide market at end 2012

  • Superfast broadband has grown much more rapidly in the USA than in Canada.
    • Both AT&T and Verizon, largest RBOCs, have decided to deploy their own superfast broadband networks to be able to provide competitive services faced with cablecos.
    • They have chosen different architecture: FTTN+VDSL for AT&T and FTTH for Verizon.
  • In Canada, the involvement of telcos is much more recent but announcements have been made by Bell Aliant regarding future FTTH rollouts.

In the USA, we consider that all major cablecos have upgraded their entire infrastructures with FTTLA + Docsis 3.0.

  • They are now able to provide superfast solutions to 100 M households in the country.
  • The cablecos do not always focus on higher available speed rates: some of them only provide up to 50 Mbps to end users. This can be considered as a way to keep some margin for future commercial positioning.
  • Cablecos as well as telcos are really focusing on TV and video services.
  • The average ARPU for FTTH services reaches 110 EUR compared to around 45 EUR for cable-based services.
Breakdown of FTTx access technologies in North American at end 2012

Breakdown of FTTx access technologies

Source: IDATE

This analysis is an excerpt of our World FTTx Markets Database & Status report

23Sep/13Off

FTTx – Services and Pricing

CHAILLOU_Valérie

 

Valérie CHAILLOU

Head of Research, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE

 

Worldwide FTTx service revenues
represent EUR 99bn in 2013
and will double until 2017

Access offers based on optical fibre are as varied as are the architecture choices of operators However, a relative homogeneity of offers in each country is noted and, by extrapolating at regional level, some peculiarities in commercial FTTx access offers can be highlighted. These characteristics are not only of price, but also affect the packaging of offers (access alone or in combination with telephony and/or television, possible limitation on the amount of data downloaded per month) and segmentation in terms of speed.

A certain homogeneity of the offer despite some regional characteristics

Schematically, the following key points can be drawn from analysis of offers at the international level:

  • the highest speeds are offered in Asia-Pacific countries;
  • packaged triple play type offers (telephony + Internet + TV) are far from being the general rule and are supplanted by double play, especially in Europe;
  • the lowest prices apply in Europe and Asia-Pacific, the highest in North America and certain Middle Eastern countries.

The development of offers is based primarily on the segmentation of speeds and services, then on the putting together of bundles

In order to enhance their optical fibre infrastructures, operators generally choose to offer different ranges of access speeds to their customers, generally up 3 to 5 different download speeds.
To this speed segmentation is added segmentation of services, in particular TV and video services. In most cases, operators offer a basic package of TV channels, which can then be added to by thematic channels, dedicated packages, video catalogues etc.
Telephony is now most often seen as a commodity and players who multiply the corresponding offers are rare. Several types of telephony offer can be identified (limited or unlimited national, fixed international, including calls to mobiles or not etc.) but few operators offer several of them.
The impact of the segmentation of services on the method of marketing and ultimately on prices is noticeable. Bundles are not as universal as all that and, in some countries, operators communicate separately about different services from their catalogue and may then offer package deals. Some operators go as far as to offer customers the possibility of constructing of their own personalised bundle in accordance with their needs.

Geography of FTTx packaged offers

FTTx offers worldwide

Source: IDATE, Market Insight "FTTx Services & Pricing"; August 2013

Innovation of services could be based on the technical possibilities of optical fibre networks

Since the first deployments of FTTx type networks operators have argued about their technical performances and the benefits that they provide to end users. This has gradually resulted in the emergence of new services, most often associated with the innovative features of terminal equipment.
From now on, to expand the commercial potential of FTTH/B, operators could, if not providing "exclusive FTTx" applications, rely on the other technical characteristics of FTTH/B i.e. symmetry and the possibility of guaranteed speeds, until then intended primarily for professional clients. To these can also be added latency which, when reduced, can provide high-performance access to Cloud services (for residential and small business use).

Throught its new report “FTTx – services & tariffs” IDATE provides a comparative analysis of the different FTTx access based on the FTTx architectures and associate pricing, on the global and regional level.

24Jul/13Off

Superfast broadband: world market

CHAILLOU_ValérieValérie CHAILLOU

Head of Research, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE

 

Superfast broadband revenue set to grow by 95% over the 5 next years, to reach €182 billion in 2017

 

“The superfast broadband market’s growth potential is greater than ever,” says Valerie Chaillou who heads up IDATE’s FTTx Watch service. “We expect to see superfast broadband revenue grow by 95% over the 5 next years, to reach €182 billion in 2017. Keeping in mind that, at the end of 2012, superfast technologies (FTTH/B, FTTN and FTTLA) accounted for only 21% of broadband access subscriptions.”

 

FTTH/B remains the leading superfast broadband solution worldwide, way ahead of FTTLA and VDSL

FTTH/B represented 69% of FTTx subscriptions at the end of 2012, compared to 20% for FTTLA and 11% for FTTN+VDSL. But the regional breakdown remains very disparate:
• FTTH/B is clearly the technology of choice in APAC, whereas FTTLA is leading the superfast broadband system in Western Europe and North America;
• VDSL is the technology of choice for several European incumbents;
• It is very early days for NGA rollouts in Latin America and the Middle East. These countries will make an increasingly large contribution to the global spread of superfast broadband in the coming years.

Several top telcos are still grappling with the choice between an FTTH/B or VDSL rollout, especially in Europe:

• Several parameters need to be taken into account – starting with cost. FTTH/B rollouts have nonetheless moved forward in several European countries – which is encouraging at a time when the EU’S telcos are seeing their margins shrink.
• Meanwhile, some players are betting on the future capacity of legacy copper networks.

Part of FTTx Architectures, Worldwide

Part of FTTx Architectures, Worldwide

Source: IDATE, FTTx Watch

 

FTTx customer rankings: 6 Asian and 4 American telcos make up the world’s Top 10

Only one carrier involved in large-scale FTTN+VDSL rollouts in the top 10 (AT&T), and two cablecos that are upgrading to FTTLA (Comcast and TWC). All three operate in the United States.

 

Top 10 worldwide FTTx players, at end 2012

Top 10 worldwide FTTx players, at end 2012

Source: IDATE, FTTx Watch

 

This analysis is an extract from our World FTTx Markets - Database & Status Report which we propose within our ongoing monitoring of the worldwide FTTx market.

2Jul/13Off

Next Gen Networks : reaching the DAE

CHAILLOU_ValérieValérie CHAILLOU

Head of Research, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE


Deployment costs & access market revenue in Europe

The goals set by the European Commission for ultra-fast broadband (UFB) are ambitious. By 2020, they aim to provide all European households with ubiquitous coverage of 30 Mbps and 50% of households with 100 Mbps access.

Cost of NGN deployment for reaching the goals of the DAE

NGN deployments are underway in all countries of the European Union but are progressing at very different rates from one country to the other. Some governments have created national programs that lay down their own goals to try and accelerate deployments, through both private operators and public players. IDATE has published a report in which NGN deployment costs have been modeled according to various scenarios. We will look closely at three of these: the "Base Case" scenario, which considers a gradual evolution of current NGN access; the "Vectoring" scenario, which anticipates improvements in copper-based technologies to reach the speeds laid out by the DAE; and the "FTTH" scenario, in which FTTH/B would be deployed on a massive scale and would provide the most future-proof performance in terms of speed. This last scenario is itself analyzed according to two different options (90% or 100% FTTH coverage), which lead to significantly different costs. The cumulative costs of these scenarios between 2011 and 2020 range from 71 to 230 billion EUR.

Cost comparison of NGN deployment scenarios en Europe

Total cost and cost per capita for next gen networks deployment in Europe

Source: IDATE

Revenues tied to the UFB access market

In parallel, IDATE has also conducted a study to evaluate the value of the UFB access market. This study is based on a thorough analysis of UFB services offered by key players in markets that represent different degrees of UFB maturity. This analysis allows us to identify different types of delivery model that may include one or more goals (maintaining positioning, increasing ARPU, reducing churn, unbundling withdrawal, etc.). The commercial positioning of operators will thus match a given delivery type that will depend on the level of competition, in particular. From there, it is possible to determine what the trends will be in terms of UFB ARPU over the coming years and thus assess one of the two key variables of access revenue. The other variable is the number of UFB subscribers, which should continue to grow relatively steadily through 2020 if we take all technologies into account. According to our estimates, the UFB access market is expected to reach 48 billion EUR by 2020.

Costs vs. revenues: Which scenario should we prioritize?

Despite some very interesting revenue potential (combined revenues exceed the cost of the most expensive scenario by 2020), the FTTH scenario is not really feasible (regardless of the coverage option considered) because cable operators—whose infrastructures offer faster speeds, are less expensive to upgrade and offer very good performance—will continue to play a major role in this market. The Base Case scenario seems to be a more feasible option in that it represents a continuation of what currently exists, namely a combination of technologies and accelerating deployment. However, it also presents risks, particularly the possibility of slow migration of broadband subscribers to UFB. Whichever scenario is implemented, operators will still need to invest significantly in deployment while reserving some investment for generating demand, without which their expected revenues cannot be achieved.

This analysis is an extract from our FTTx market insight which we propose within our ongoing monitoring of the worldwide FTTx market.

28Jun/13Off

Focus on FTTx in the UK

CHAILLOU_Valérie
Valérie CHAILLOU

Head of Research, Telecoms Business Unit, IDATE


Inventory of the British NGA market

The British NGA market is quite complex. On the one hand, two national players, BT and Virgin Media (now acquired by Liberty Global), have deployed their FTTN networks and already reach 20 million households who can access to at least 20-30 Mbps. On the other hand, several local players have decided to get involved in FTTH (more often called "FTTP" in the UK) as they consider that this is the infrastructure of the future and that they cannot wait for national players to get involved.

Then, the government is also involved through the BDUK programme (mainly for FTTx in rural areas) but only BT and Fujitsu can apply to tenders launched by local authorities and then indirectly benefit from public funds. However, at mid-2012, Fujitsu withdrew itself from two tenders (Cumbria and Wales), considering that it would be too difficult to attract RSPs to provide services over the infrastructure in those areas.

BDUK is also involved through the very recent launch of the "super-connected cities" project, aiming at ensuring the coverage of areas in large cities that would not be concerned by private investments.

Whatever the project, FTTH/B is not, and will not be, the main architecture deployed in the UK. This has been much more the case since BT announced its "FTTP on demand" pilots: the incumbent does not plan to roll out FTTP any more unless the demand is clear from end users.

199,000 FTTH/B homes passed and 17,000 FTTH/B subscribers at end-2012
• Very low take-up rate: 8.5%
• Several local players are involved in FTTH/B rollouts but they generally cover restricted territories; some interesting business models are emerging such as the B4RN and Fibre GarDen ones, involving people from the communities.
FTTN+VDSL from BT and FTTLA + DOCSIS 3.0 from Virgin Media are the leading architectures regarding superfast broadband in the UK:
20,000,000 FTTN2 homes passed,
3,341,000 FTTN subscribers.
• This will not change in the coming months if we consider the current strategy of BT
regarding FTTH roll outs ("FTTP on demand").

This analysis is an extract from our FTTx market insight which we propose within our ongoing monitoring of the worldwide FTTx market.

18Dec/12Off

Next Gen Access deployment

Roland Montagne

Roland Montagne

Head of the Telecoms Business Unit at IDATE

 

Measuring costs for each EU-27 member state to reach the Digital Agenda in Europe

 
In May 2010, the European Commission adopted its Digital Agenda policy programme. It was one of the first flagship initiatives of the EU 2020 strategy. It sets ambitious targets to provide all European households with ubiquitous coverage of 30 Mbps as a minimum and half of them with a subscription of 100 Mbps by 2020. IDATE has published recently a report providing different possible cost scenarios – with a breakdown by technology and by population density (urban, peri-urban, rural).

Today, some voices are raising concerns that the goals of the Digital Agenda (DA) will not be reached in many Member States as the necessary expenditure is beyond reach, especially in the current European economic situation. This is why this report focuses in particular on the cost of the Digital Agenda in reaching the ambitious goal of coverage of 30 Mbps and 100 Mbps, and further tries to clarify, per country, what it will be. It puts forward a theoretical model with the distinction of various scenarios involving distinct technologies, namely fixed and wireless.

"In several European countries, the rollout of FTTH networks has started and the European Union disposes already of a 40% NGA net coverage amongst all its member states. Indeed, copper local loop will ultimately be replaced by fibre, it being the medium that can guarantee an almost infinite bandwidth capacity for the future. Nevertheless, good quality copper, especially in Western Europe, and the current economic situation, could lead some telcos to consider other alternative scenarios involving VDSL, LTE or even satellite in Ka band", says Roland Montagne, Director of the Telecom Business Unit at IDATE. He adds: "The adoption of a FTTH-oriented scenario by telcos will not only depend on the amount of capex necessary but also on a viable business model. On this, telcos should be innovative not only with the services they propose but also on their pricing approach (tiered pricing) and their strategy regarding smart access."

Deployment costs by scenario

  • Four scenarios in different constellations have been modelled, including a full FTTH/B coverage scenario. Depending on the mix of technologies deployed, these scenarios will cost between 51 billion EUR and 229 billion EUR.
  • These amounts, whilst certainly substantial, are within the expected range and therefore come as a confirmation of the ambitious nature of the broadband objectives of the DAE.


*50% uptake
NOTE: Scenario names are chosen to reflect main technological characteristics, but do not express a preference for any given
technology to reach the broadband objectives of the Digital Agenda.
90% FTTH/B = 90% FTTH/B only + 10% LTE
Base case = FTTH/B+FTTLA+VDSL2+LTE
Vectoring = FTTH/B+FTTLA+VDSL Vectoring+VDSL2+LTE)
Wireless = LTE+FTTH/B

NGA Costs model

In order to build our theoretical model of the costs of reaching the DA goals, IDATE started by drawing up several assumptions about ‘overlapping’ in each country with the aim of establishing the ‘net’ number of FTTx homes passed, and thus the effective level of NGA coverage. Consolidating this in the EU27 gives a net NGA coverage rate of 41% of European households in late-2011. Among the four fixed NGA architectures considered (FTTH/B, FTTLA+DOCSIS 3.0, FTTN+VDSL and FTTx/LAN), regarding our estimates at that time, FTTH/B accounted for 22%, FTTN+VDSL for 25% and FTTLA+DOCSIS3.0 for 50% of the European NGA coverage.

Using these coverage estimates as a baseline, IDATE modelled the investment required for each of the 27 Member States to reach the broadband objectives of the Commission's DA. We also took into account, nevertheless, for each Member State, the national broadband or ultra-fast broadband plans already launched, with their associated objectives of coverage up to 2020.

We then considered no duplication of infrastructure in our cost model. Indeed, the model's output shows the minimum cost of reaching the DA targets by rolling out one single network per coverage area1.

> For more information about what we do, visit us online at: www.idate.orgwww.idate.org

9Jul/12Off

The Worldwide Ultrafast-Broadband Market

Roland Montagne

Roland Montagne

Head of the Telecoms Business Unit at IDATE

 

FTTH vs LTE: 230 million compared to 900 million subscribers worldwide by 2016

 
Although there were only 9 million LTE subscribers worldwide in late 2011 compared to 220 million FTTx subscribers (88 million for FTTH/B and VDSL alone), momentum is rapidly growing in favour of mobile. In 2016, IDATE predicts that the number of LTE subscribers will exceed 900 million, compared to nearly 230 million for fixed ultrafast-broadband (FTTH/B and VDSL).

During the Ultrafast- Broadband Conference, co-organised each year by IDATE and the Aromates agency, IDATE teams will present perspectives on ultrafast-broadband (UFB) expansion. These forecasts are based on our team's worldwide continuous monitoring of investments being made by operators, country by country, project by project, and the current number of subscribers by technology. The debate can therefore be based on objective data, on this day of exchange between all parties developing these key technologies aimed at growth in new digital uses.

LTE, acceleration

Although there were only 142,000 LTE subscribers worldwide in 2010, by late 2011 that number had already increased to 9.3 million. "We expect that a significant share of LTE devices will support FDD and TDD by the end of 2013," stated Frédéric Pujol, Director of IDATE's "Mobile Network" Practice. Growth will also be stimulated by TD-LTE deployments in India, China and several other countries in Asia-Pacific, Latin America and the Middle East, as well as in Europe, though to a lesser extent.

Overall, there is definitely an acceleration in deployments that we are following, which will result in a higher than expected number of LTE subscribers, as we now expect to reach the goal of 900 million subscribers by 2016.

For Europe, the situation is different:

  • Take-off is taking longer than expected in Western Europe due to the late arrival of LTE smartphones and tablets using European frequencies. According to our forecast, Europe should have 150 million LTE subscribers by 2016.
  • Smartphones for 800 MHz and 2.6 GHz frequencies have been available since March 2012 in Germany and Sweden. Sweden already had nearly 100,000 LTE subscribers by late 2011. The anticipated arrival of smartphones in early 2012 should certainly drive growth in LTE subscribers in Germany.
  • For Spain, France, Italy and the United Kingdom, it has been confirmed that the first deployments will take place by the end of this year for commercial release in 2013.

FTTx, still very different growth

The global market for FTTx access continued to grow in 2011. There were more than 220 million FTTx subscribers worldwide by the end of the year (with nearly 56% using FTTx/LAN architecture in China) with sustained FTTx growth of more than 25% in the second half of 2011.

Roland Montagne, Director of IDATE's "Telecom" Business Unit underscored the fact that "FTTH/B architecture remains by far the most common in Europe but not in North America (6.2 million VDSL subscribers but nearly 78 million households covered by cable FTTLA + Docsis 3.0) or Asia/Pacific (124.5 million FTTx+LAN subscribers in China). In late 2011, there were 77 million FTTH/B subscribers worldwide compared to a total of about 250 million homes passed by FTTH/B."

Changes in the UFB market over the course of 2011 was marked by divergent trends demonstrated by the number of FTTx subscribers compared to the number of homes passed by FTTx. Priority remains with ultrafast broadband coverage, to meet a potential significant change in demand. This worldwide trend, however, varies from country to country.

Japan remains the world leader in terms of FTTH/B subscribers, followed closely by China. But in terms of growth, these two countries are experiencing distinctly different situations. China appears to be much more active, with a growth rate of 44% compared to 6% for Japan between June 2011 and December 2011. And this trend will only get stronger because, in the preceding half, the respective growth rates were 14% and 5%. This trend could soon result in China and Japan reversing positions in the worldwide ranking of countries with the most FTTH/B subscribers.

Even though the majority of countries in this ranking come from Asia/Pacific, the United States remains in fourth place, with nearly 8 million FTTH/B subscribers. For FTTH/B, a few European countries are holding their own alongside Russia, the leader in this region with 4.5 million FTTH/B subscribers in late 2011.

France is climbing in the rankings and is now higher than Sweden, a leading country but now having difficulty convincing the remaining households to convert to FTTH. Nevertheless, France remains a country where UFB commercial policy is still relatively unconvincing.

Roland Montagne
Head of the Telecoms Business Unit at IDATE
r.montagne@idate.org

> Discover our watch services dedicated to LTE et FTTx World markets:

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9Jul/12Off

Déploiement des réseaux Très Haut Débit par les collectivités

Gilles Fontaine

Pierre-Michel ATTALI

Responsable du Pôle Réseaux et collectivités, IDATE
 

Des projets représentant 6 millions de prises FTTH et 4,5 milliard € d'investissement à fin 2017

 
A l'occasion des Assises du Très Haut Débit co-organisé chaque année par l'IDATE et l'agence Aromates, les équipes de l'IDATE font le point sur les projets en cours et les perspectives concernant les réseaux Très Haut Débit (THD) mis en œuvre par les collectivités locales. Ces prévisions reposent sur un suivi permanent que nos équipes réalisent au niveau national sur l'action publique en matière de technologies de l'information et de la communication et sur les missions de conseil que nous réalisons pour les collectivités dans le domaine de l'aménagement numérique des territoires.

Le débat de cette journée d'échange entre toutes les parties prenantes pour le développement du THD sur les territoires permettra d'identifier les attentes des acteurs publics et les facteurs susceptibles d'accélérer les déploiements des réseaux optiques sur les territoires.

2012, la prise de conscience par les collectivités des enjeux liés au THD

En 2012, les collectivités ont une pleine conscience des enjeux liés au THD pour leurs territoires. Elles ont compris que les réseaux en fibre optique, de par leur impact sur des pans entiers de la société, dans les domaines par exemple de l'éducation, de la santé, ou encore du logement constituent une infrastructure essentielle pour le 21ème siècle, au même titre que les infrastructures mises en œuvre au 20ème siècle dans les domaines de l'eau ou encore de l'électricité.

A ce titre, le développement des réseaux THD répond très clairement à des problématiques classiques d'aménagement des territoires, qui sont de la compétence directe des acteurs publics, et notamment des collectivités locales, qui ne peuvent donc en être exclues.

Mais au-delà de la problématique d'aménagement des territoires, le déploiement des réseaux à très haut débit est perçu comme une véritable source de croissance pour l'ensemble de l'économie ainsi que de création d'emplois, pour l'essentiel non délocalisables, dans un contexte national et européen de crise économique où l'on recherche précisément des moyens de créer de la croissance.

Investir pour le long terme dans les réseaux à très haut débit, c'est donc à court terme pour les acteurs publics renforcer la croissance et l'emploi.

2012, l'année pour les collectivités de la structuration nécessaire, préalable à un large déploiement THD sur les territoires

L'année 2012 a été l'occasion pour les collectivités de mettre en place les fondations qui leur permettront de passer à une phase de large déploiement du THD sur les territoires :

  • Les Schémas Directeurs Territoriaux d'Aménagement Numérique (SDTAN), documents prospectifs établis par les collectivités et instaurés par la Loi Pintat de décembre 2009 relative à la lutte contre la fracture numérique, portent désormais sur 95 départements et 43 d'entre eux sont d'ores et déjà achevés.
  • Les collectivités réfléchissent sur la meilleure structure de portage possible pour la mise en œuvre du THD : elles ont bien compris la nécessité de se regrouper pour être plus efficaces sur un même territoire et avoir la plus grande capacité financière et nombre d'entre-elles devraient s'engager dans la mise en place d'une structure de regroupement de type syndicat mixte ouvert.
  • Les collectivités rentrent dans une phase opérationnelle en lançant des études d'ingénierie pour avoir une vision fine des conditions technico-économiques du déploiement du FTTH sur les territoires.

Bref, les collectivités ont passé ces derniers mois à se structurer et à se doter des outils pour être en mesure de déployer largement le THD sur les territoires, en passant d'une approche "artisanale" à une logique industrielle de masse.

A fin 2017, des projets des collectivités locales qui pourraient représenter 6 millions de prises FTTH pour 4,5 milliard € d'investissement …

En tenant compte des premiers projets ayant fait l'objet d'une procédure d'appel d'offres, voire d'une attribution de marché ou de délégation de service public et qui représentent plus de 2 millions de prises à réaliser, c'est un total de 6 millions de prises FTTH qui pourraient être réalisées par les collectivités locales à l'horizon 2017, pour un investissement global de 4,5 milliards €.

… sous réserve d'une amplification des cofinancements nationaux et européens et d'une meilleure prédictibilité des revenus sur les réseaux

Si les collectivités ont passé ces derniers mois à se structurer et si le "rouleau compresseur" du déploiement public va être disponible, il reste cependant à trouver le "carburant" nécessaire pour faire marcher la machine, en l'occurrence à trouver les financements pour les projets et à sécuriser les revenus qui pourraient être générés sur les réseaux Très Haut Débit.

Clairement, la concrétisation des projets identifiés par les collectivités suppose une amplification des cofinancements de l'Etat et de l'Europe et davantage de prédictibilité sur les revenus, qui pourrait être atteinte grâce à une réelle volonté des opérateurs de basculer leurs abonnés ADSL vers les nouveaux réseaux optiques et une action politique forte visant à programmer à terme une extinction ordonnée des réseaux cuivre, gage de visibilité pour les investisseurs.

L’équipe Développement de l'IDATE, une expertise reconnue auprès des collectivités et des Pouvoirs publics locaux et nationaux.

Les consultants de l'Unité Développement de l’IDATE interviennent sur l’ensemble des problématiques TIC en offrant une palette de prestations répondant aux attentes de ses clients, dans les domaines des réseaux à très haut débit, des observatoires et de l'évaluation, du développement économique, et des schémas directeurs d'aménagement numérique.

Dans le domaine de l'aménagement numérique des territoires, l'IDATE a notamment réalisé les SDTAN de la Région Alsace, des Conseils Généraux de l'Essonne, du Gers, de la Loire, du Territoire de Belfort, du Val-de-Marne, du Val-d'Oise, du Syndicat mixte de l'Aire Urbaine Belfort-Montbéliard.

L'IDATE est également conseil dans la stratégie THD et assistant à maîtrise d'ouvrage du Grand Lyon, des Communautés d'Agglomération de Montpellier et Rennes Métropole, ou encore de l'Etablissement public Debitex qui porte un projet de 120 000 prises FTTH sur 27 communes de la Seine-Saint-Denis et du Val-d'Oise.

Pierre-Michel ATTALI
Responsable du Pôle Réseaux et collectivités, IDATE
pm.attali@idate.org

> Visitez notre site pour plus d'informations.

8Jun/12Off

FTTx World Market

Roland Montagne

Roland Montagne

Head of the Telecoms Business Unit at IDATE
 


220.8 million FTTx subscribers in the world by the end of 2011

 
IDATE proposes a watch service for the fiber market and publishes half-yearly the key data of this market for the world - including 70 countries, 150 key actors and forecasts until 2016. The global market for FTTx access continued to grow in 2011. The total number of FTTx subscribers by the end of 2011 was more than 220.8 million, with sustained FTTx growth of 25% in the second half of 2011.

“FTTH/B architecture remains by far the most common in Europe but not in North America (6.2 million VDSL subscribers) or in Asia/Pacific (124.5 million FTTx+LAN subscribers). In late 2011, there were 77 million FTTH/B subscribers in the world compared to about 250 million homes passed by FTTH/B”, says Roland Montagne, Head of Telecoms Business Unit at IDATE. “Changes in the high-speed broadband market over the course of 2011 was marked by divergent trends demonstrated by the number of FTTx subscribers compared to the number of homes passed by FTTx. Priority remains with high-speed broadband coverage, to meet a potential significant change in demand. This worldwide trend, however, varies from country to country”

FTTH/B vs VDSL subscribers worldwide, 2011-2016, millions

The FTTx key markets situation

Japan remains the world leader in terms of FTTH/B subscribers, followed closely by China. But in terms of growth, these two countries are experiencing distinctly different situations. China appears to be much more active, with a growth rate of 44% compared to 6% for Japan between June 2011 and December 2011. And this trend will only get stronger because, in the preceding half, the respective growth rates were14% and 5%. This trend could soon result in China and Japan reversing positions in the worldwide ranking of countries with the most FTTH/B subscribers.

Even though the majority of countries in this ranking come from Asia/Pacific, the United States remains in fourth place, with nearly 8 million FTTH/B subscribers.

For FTTH/B, a few European countries are holding their own alongside Russia, the leader in this region with 4.5 million FTTH/B subscribers in late 2011. France is climbing in the rankings and is now higher than Sweden, a leading country but now having difficulty convincing the remaining households to convert to FTTH. Nevertheless, France remains a country where high-speed commercial policy is still relatively unconvincing. Note that the Ukraine retained its 10th place position.

This ranking remained relatively the same as that shown in mid-2011, except for the change in rankings of Sweden and France.

Be aware that the strong growth of high-speed broadband in the United Arab Emirates could result in it breaking through into the top 10.

FTTx operators worldwide ranking

As Asia/Pacific largely dominates the FTTH/B market, with more than 75% of the total number of subscribers, the players also dominate. Actually, there are 7 Asian operators among the Top 10 players in terms of the number of FTTH/B subscribers worldwide.

The leader continues to be the incumbent Japanese operator, NTT, with more than 16 million FTTH/B subscribers in late 2011. It is closely followed by the two primary Chinese operators, China Telecom and China Unicom, who are also involved in the deployment of FTTx+LAN architecture. However, if you take into account all FTTx architectures, these two Chinese operators outscore by far NTT, which has seen relative stagnation in its high-speed broadband subscriber base. The Chinese market seems to offer very strong growth in fibre optic deployment. For example, between June and December 2011, China Unicom increased by 177% the number of homes passed by its FTTH/B network and its competitor saw a growth rate of 80% in homes passed by FTTH/B.

Nevertheless, leadership in Asia/Pacific is relative. Strong growth in China requires stable markets. For example, due to its lack of innovation in the services it proposed, SK Broadband in South Korea faced a churn rate for FTTH/B of 6% over the second half of 2011, compared to 15% between the end of 2010 and the end of 2011.

The leading American operator, Verizon, has more than 60% of FTTH/B subscribers in the United States. Its growth was relatively stable throughout the second quarter 2011 with an increase in its FTTH subscriber base of 8% but it still garnered a 5th place position of the top 10 FTTH/B players worldwide. In addition, Verizon is concentrating more on the acquisition of new subscribers instead of expanding it fibre optic network.

For Europe, only one country made the rankings list, Russia due to its ER Telecom and Beeline operators. Their fibre strategy is based on acceleration of their coverage as well as an increase in their FTTH/B subscriber base.

Ranking of the 10 main FTTH/B players in the world, in late 2011.

 
Roland Montagne
Head of the Telecoms Business Unit at IDATE
r.montagne@idate.org

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