24Mar/150

In 2015, the key words of the Mobile World Congress were 5G, IoT, virtualization and LTE-U : PART 2

image accroche article MWC part 2

IoT : The Internet of Things

Connected objects were everywhere and IoT is now becoming the Internet of everything.

Connected cars

Connected cars attracted a lot of attention with connected vehicles on most of equipment manufacturers’ and MNOs’ booths.
Renault’s CEO made a keynote where he presented the timetable for assisted driving. According to Mr. Carlos Ghosn, despite their numerous initiatives and some acquisition rumours, Internet giants are not rivals to car manufacturers but allies, as they consider electric cars and they help car makers to promote electric cars.
Ford had even its own booth presenting the electric vehicles (both passenger and entreprise cars) with dedicated solutions. In the meantime, Vodafone presented a Porsche Panamera model equipped with its new Telematics solution since the Cobra acquisition.

Smart home

Smart is also getting traction in the IoT space. In the “innovation city” hall (space dedicated to the connected objects), through the connectedhouseAT&T offering (Digital life) where the home could control through the smartphone and even through the connected car (equipped with an AT&T SIM card). When approaching the home, the car can trigger the opening of gate by itself for instance (pre-programmed distance).

connectedthingsWearables

Several watches and smart objects were also present on the different booths. Only AT&T provides cellular connected wearable on its booth, including the TIMEX and Samsung Gear S.

Alternative technologies

While 5G is already in the tracks, very low throughput network technologies are also under the spotlights. After the recent release of its 100 MEUR fundraising campaign among telecom operators, Sigfox was also on everyone’s lips at the MWC. Among the main new shareholders, Telefonica confirmed its strategic investment and its willingness to integrate the technology into its portfolio to address additional verticals and applications.

Alliances

The GMA (Global M2M Association) also announced a strategic collaboration with Gemalto and Ericsson to provide a Multi-Domestic Service based on a single SIM (using the eUICC technology) helping global enterprises (chiefly from the automotive and consumer electronics segments) capitalize on the growth of connected devices.

Growing market but still key challenges though

During his keynote, if AT&T Wireless CEO predicted that the smart phone will be the remote control of everything in the next few years, he also pointed out the key challenges to address in order to make the IoT market grow significantly:
•    Security
•    Privacy concerns
•    Effortless (ease of use)

Privacy

privacylogoData about devices and their users is generated in real-time, often by default and without the user being aware or having choice (especially for free apps). There is a need for a different approach to giving users transparency, choice and control over their data and privacy.

Generally user has a single choice : accept or not using the service, there should be gradual approach (like sharing some id attributes but not all of them).
Privacy could be a competitive stick for service providers, as users are becoming more aware of privacy.

Facebook in emerging countries

fbFacebook has launched Facebook zero in partnership with mobile operators (Millicom, Telenor, Airtel): data use is free for a limited period, and after that operators can charge data.

•    Airtel: “Operators and Facebook are like the beauty and the beast, but the beast (facebook) is becoming more human nowadays”.  Airtel was reluctant to introduce Facebook because of VoIP threat. Is looking at it like the “boiling milk”.
•    Millicom, Telenor: have seen ARPU rise thanks to facebook launching, very promising for them.
•    Wikipedia has the same approach of “Wikipedia zero”, dealing with operator to provide data access for free.

Financial inclusion

Banks, such as Master Card, provide a global and interoperable solutions. Those systems needs public-private partnerships. Hong Leong Islamic Bank Berhad has launched a solution in Malaysia.

More informations about IDATE's expertise and events :

www.idate.org      www.digiworldsummit.com      www.digiworldweek.com

23Mar/150

In 2015, the key words of the Mobile World Congress were 5G, IoT, virtualization and LTE-U : PART 1

MWC infog

As for each edition, IDATE has been Analyst partner of the Mobile World Congress. A fantastic opportunity for our analysts and experts to interview many professionals coming from their Mobile planet to Barcelona for this intense and tremendous week.

5G Concept

Even though the concept of 5G is still very much under discussion (videos from KT, Huawei presented during conferences), NGMN (next generation mobile networks) Alliance published its 5G white paper which can be seen as the mobile operators “wish list” for 5G. Nonetheless, 5G is scheduled for 2020. Early trials should arrive in 2018, with projects scheduled for the Winter Olympic games in South Korea (4G became real in 2010’s, 3G in 2000’s). Key advantages of 5G over 4G would be a much lower latency (1ms compared to 40 ms in 4G and 100 ms with 3G), the capacity to connect billions of devices, faster response that will boost services like augmented reality, self driving cars and online gaming. Huawei mentioned that 5G should reach 10 Gbps (7 minutes to download a movie with 4G, 6 s with 5G).

5G should better take into account specific requests of vertical markets (healthcare, automotive, energy, government, city management, manufacturing and public transportation) and better manage the Internet of Things.

Equipment suppliers showed first demos of 5G air interface using millimetric bands (70 GHz - Nokia) and 15 GHz (Ericsson). New air interface techniques were proposed by Huawei with the non-orthogonal access technology based on Sparse Code Multiple Access (SCMA), and Filtered-Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (F-OFDM).

With tvisuel principal idate MWC v2he 5GPPP (Public Private Partnership), Europe is trying to accelerate developments of 5G with fundings of €700 million for R&D. It is expected that the industry will invest five times this amount. According to the 5GPPP, 5G should be based upon a HetNet (heterogeneous network) supporting various radio access technologies and frequency bands ranging from sub-1 GHz bands to 100 GHz. Various traffic profiles will have to be supported:

 

•    Low speed-low energy for IoT sensors
•    High speeds for video services
•    Very low latency profile for mission critical services such as PPDR (Public Protection and Disaster Relief) and for transportation issues

Google will soon become a MVNO

Google confirmed during the MWC that the group is negotiating MVNO agreements with the US mobile operators. Light details on Google plans so far. Further information scheduled for months to come. Nova is not expected to compete directly against US MNOs. In addition, Google do not want to launch a network at scale.
The Google MVNO will only work with the Nexus6. “The focus of Google’s network could be on connecting devices other than phones, as watches, cars and other devices increasingly will include mobile connectivity features”.Mobile Identity

Different methods of identification and authentication, each suited to particular transaction types (from access to social network to official ID) ; biometric authentication as a new solution.
•    Digital identity card exists in Estonia (with digital authentication), biometric card exists in middle east and Africa (Algeria, South Africa)
•    Mobile authentication is a challenge for mobile operators, but the market is far from mass-market: demand is not ready for official ID authentication on mobile, standards are needed, as well as regulation.Mobile Id could be a leapfrog technology in emerging countries where people don’t even have identity papers, and have a mobile phone.
If mobile operators don’t manage to be positioned on this market, banks or social networks could.

Virtualization

PICTO VIRTUANetwork Function Virtualization (NFV) appeared last year during MWC and is now close to commercial implementation by mobile operators. Telefonica demonstrated a full network together with ALU and HP. It will integrate a vRAN, vCDN, vEPC and vIMS.
A first implementation of vRAN was presented by China Mobile which is collaborating with Alcatel-Lucent and Intel on Cloud-RAN, which is seen as a first step towards virtual RAN. NTT Docomo is working with NEC on virtualization of the core network (EPC).

LTE-U

LTELOGO2LTE-U technology is important and was present on many vendors’ booths. It will give free access to additional spectrum in the 5 GHz band currently used by Wifi. This will provide SDL (supplementary downlink) capability, providing extra capacity for downlink traffic, especially video. LBT (Listen Before Talk), the specific function which will allow smooth compatibility between Wifi and LTE in the 5 GHz band will be included in 3GPP Release 13 expected to be adopted in Q3 2016.
LTE and Wifi carriers can also be combined in order to provide higher throughputs but in that case, the benefits of LTE higher spectrum efficiency are not present.

 

20Mar/150

Nouveau cycle de conférences de prospective numérique sur les enjeux de l’Internet, de la télévision et des télécoms à 2025

logo DWFuture generique 2015

A l’occasion de la sortie de la nouvelle édition de son DigiWorld Yearbook, l’IDATE présente son nouveau cycle de conférences de prospective numérique sur les enjeux de l’Internet, de la télévision et des télécoms à 2025 !

La première session DigiWorld Future  se déroulera le 16 juin au Palais Brongniart, à Paris,  dans le cadre du Festival Futur en Seine en partenariat avec la Ville de Paris et Cap Digital.

A partir des analyses des experts de l’IDATE, les débats seront animés par Marjorie Paillon, Journaliste, Tech 24, Philippe Escande, Rédacteur en Chef, Le Monde et Gilles Babinet, avec les contributions exceptionnelles de :

sebastienbazin lowaxellelemaire lowMaurice Levy lowfrederic mazzella lowrichardstephaneOROUSSAT low

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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11Apr/140

How to meet the broadband needs 
of public safety users?

Frédéric Pujol, Head of the radio technologies & spectrum practice, IDATE

Frédéric Pujol
Head of the radio technologies and spectrum practice, Idate

 

 

In its latest report, part of the Spectrum service, IDATE details existing spectrum allocation for public safety services. It presents the requirements for broadband services and the corresponding spectrum needs of public safety users. The use of commercial LTE networks by public safety users is analyzed and the mobile broadband strategies for PPDR players are evaluated.

Public protection and disaster relief (PPDR) is the general designation given to a range of public safety services broken down into: Day-to-day operations (category ‘PP1’) or routine operations; large emergency and/or public events (category ‘PP2’) for larger events; and disaster relief (category ‘DR’) caused by either natural of human activity. PPDR is not a commercial service.

  • Current non-broadband PPDR systems mainly use the 400 MHz and the 700-800 bands worldwide. Spectrum above 1 GHz supports also a variety of PPDR operations for temporary use only.
  • Regarding spectrum requirements, PPDR users face the challenge of different interests within countries whether or not spectrum should be reserved for PPDR applications.
  • Broadband-dedicated PPDR spectrum is expected to be allocated mostly in the 700 MHz with complementary frequencies below 1 GHz for specific countries (800 MHz) and above 1 GHz (1.4 to 5 GHz frequencies). At 700 MHz, coexistence is mainly with television broadcasting/digital TV and commercial broadband networks in Europe.
  • According to PPDR user groups, a minimum of 2 x 10 MHz for broadband PPDR spectrum should be reserved, similar to what was allocated in the USA. Additional country specific spectrum needs to be calculated.
  • The question of allocating broadband PPDR spectrum through auctions is also being debated.

PPDR services can be provided through dedicated PPDR systems or commercial cellular networks.

  • The challenge is to enhance the LTE and LTE-Advanced standards to meet PPDR requirements. However, in the short term, extended LTE and LTE-Advanced capabilities and standards (Direct Mode, Proximity Services and Group Communications System Enablers, resilience and VoLTE) will not be in operation.
  • Dynamic use of shared broadband PPDR spectrum with predictable QoS is also a key potential capability considered through Temporary Licensed Access (LSA/ASA).

In conclusion, we have identified the following options for PPDR players wishing to get access to mobile broadband capabilities :

1.    Build and run an own dedicated broadband PPDR network
2.    Use a dedicated broadband PPDR network run by a private operator
3.    Use a narrow band PPDR network + MVNO agreement for broadband services
4.    Use a dedicated commercial mobile network or Use a standard commercial mobile network
5.    Use a dedicated commercial mobile network which operates specific PPDR spectrum

Potential candidate bands for broadband PPDR spectrum by region

tableau-Potential-candidate-bands-for-broadband-PPDR-spectrum-by-region

Source: IDATE

More information about "Public Safety Report" study.

8Aug/13Off

Internet Services: where is the value?

 

Vincent BONNEAU
Head of Internet Business Unit at IDATE

The Internet services industry is often perceived as a world of completely free services (and thus implicitly low quality), where everything is supported by advertising. In reality, the situation is obviously more complex. The majority of Internet services revenue comes from paid or transactional services, and the proportion of advertising revenue is trending downward (see Chapter 2, Internet markets) with the development of new services around mobile, cloud computing and even social networks, which rely more and more (at least partly) on paid solutions.

A low-cost approach to services?

Many services are actually offered in freemium versions, with a basic free version (often ad-supported) and a more premium paid version. Spotify and Deezer use this model for online music distribution, and Dropbox and similar services use the same for cloud computing. The goal is to establish a large user base by offering free services, and to then use this base as a lever to attract users to the paid services. The associated marketing costs are therefore next to nothing. The bestperforming players are managing to convert almost 15% of their user base to the paid versions.

Even paid services providers (including freemium models) are adopting low-cost pricing strategies, which breaks with traditional pricing models (like Skype for VoIP, Netflix for SVOD, Amazon for e-commerce and PayPal for payments) and thus undermines traditional service providers. However, this does not mean that Internet players never offer premium services.

Telco and OTT provider revenue in Europe's 5 biggest markets

Premium services still exist on the Web

Where monetisation and value creation of Internet services has seen the most success is when providers have used an approach that combines lower-cost pricing and premium services aimed at the end user and/or third parties (such as merchants, advertisers and developers). It is often the functionality offered to the user rather than the price that is premium, especially in terms of customer service (Amazon), scope of the service, account management and device support (Netflix), decision support, ease-of-use (PayPal). Most players also rely on a two-sided approach.

The service offered to third parties who connect with or capture data from users is premium. The price per unit for this is often moderate, too. But the service is very attractive for advertisers and merchants in such terms as quantity and quality of available data, ease of implementation, value-added services, targeting capacity. Advertisers are always willing to pay more for advertisements to reach the most attractive targets. The CPMs are therefore much higher on financial information sites. It is, then, ultimately data, and personal data in particular, that constitutes the premium resource of the Internet.

How top internet companies are positioned

Premium services need advanced tools

To effectively implement premium services on the Internet (and consequently data management and processing), most players are investing heavily in infrastructure for both hardware and software. Major Internet players are positioning themselves around essential technological cornerstones, such as data centres, the Cloud, browsers, operating systems and even devices themselves, or specialized solutions such as DRM. They are implementing their own solutions and developing proprietary approaches if necessary, even offering their resources to third parties (such as Amazon Web Services, Google Analytics, Facebook Connect). Google invests almost one billion USD per quarter in infrastructure.

Advanced software solutions are also central to many Internet players’ activities, particularly around data processing and analysis, which is the focus of the recent growth of big data (see the Big data section in this chapter). Google is therefore indirectly behind the current reference service Hadoop, which derives from Google’s MapReduce.

Averageannual per-user revenue for digital content

Premium Internet services involve platform development

Premium services also require vast amounts of data to be collected. This data capture can be direct (via user tracking),declarative or from various sensors. It can also come from third parties through agreements (possibly via their API).

This has pushed most of the major players to develop platforms capable of collecting data from third-party services. This platform links users of the Internet player’s service with developers, merchants and advertisers who want to connect with a wide audience, with varying levels of targeting. It is therefore an essential intermediary tool. To increase interest in their platform, the major Internet players are also keen to offer a part of their infrastructure and devices (Nexus, Kindle Fire) at low costs, despite their relatively premium specifications.

About the Digiworld Yearbook

While digitisation will bring more growth to certain developed markets, the next decade will show a marked decline in linear television revenue in the video sector, and a corresponding increase in new on-demand services. For the incumbent audiovisual operators, their capacity to generate revenue from these new services will dictate whether they can sustain their levels of turnover. They will, for all that, only find growth opportunities in emerging markets.

digiworld yearbook 2013
197 pages that deliver the finest market insights from IDATE experts who track the changes at work in the globe’s telecom, Internet and media industries throughout the year.

the DigiWorld Yearbook is published in English and French and available in print and PDF format. An iPad edition, developed by Forecomm, is also available.

The 2012 edition can be downloaded for free
The 2013 edition is available for purchase. Print: €99.99, incl. VAT; PDF and iPad: €54.99, incl. VAT

 

  • You can have a look at the digiworld yearbook 2013, purchase it or even download the 2012 version for free at : www.digiworld.org/yearbook/
18Jul/13Off

Interview with Gilles BRÉGANT, CEO of ANFR

Published in COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGIES No. 90, 2nd Quarter 2013

The radio spectrum: A shift in paradigms?

Summary of this issue: Demand for the use of the radio spectrum is constantly and rapidly growing, not only as a means of carrying Internet traffic, but also for new or expanding use by the military, public protection and disaster relief, at the same time that more traditional applications such as aeronautical, maritime, and radio astronomy remain. Is spectrum policy entering a trackless wilderness, or can a new direction and a new set of paradigms be expected to emerge? The contributions to this special issue of Communications & Strategies cover a great deal of ground. They serve to provide valuable signposts for spectrum policy going forward.

Gilles BRÉGANT CEO of ANFR

Exclusive:
Interview with Gilles BRÉGANT
CEO of ANFR.
(French national spectrum agency)

Conducted by Frédéric PUJOL,

Head of the radio technologies & spectrum practice, IDATE

 

C&S: What are ANFR's main priorities in the coming two years as far as Spectrum management is concerned?

Gilles BRÉGANT:

The Agence nationale des Fréquences (ANFR) is the French public Agency in charge of radio spectrum management. It is placed under the jurisdiction of the Minister responsible for Electronic Communications (Mr. Arnaud Montebourg and Ms. Fleur Pellerin since May 2012) but all the Ministries using spectrum are represented at ANFR's board. Besides, ANFR's decisions regarding spectrum allocation are actually taken by the Prime Minister since spectrum, in France, is a state affair.
Spectrum management priorities will be closely linked to the governmental decisions and digital economy needs for the following years and to the international and European agenda.

A. Create the conditions of mobile broadband (4G) success in France
4G allows very high data flow rates and significantly increased user comfort: lightning-fast downloads, and a more fluid navigation become possible on smartphones or tablets. This opens up opportunities for new services in mobility, such as access to audiovisual content. A factor of innovation, growth and job creation, 4G is one of the priorities of the Government. ANFR has been deeply involved for the development of European harmonized conditions for the usage of 4G and is currently mobilized to make a success for the introduction of this new technology.

Since December 2012, the Agency has published a 4G roll out observatory. This tool will be key to monitor 4G infrastructures deployment, carrier by carrier.
However, the 4G challenge will be a tricky one when it comes to spectrum management since the 800 MHz 4G can interfere with DTT. ANFR uses its resources devoted to the protection of TV reception so that the 4G 800 MHz and TNT coexist harmoniously.

The ANFR intervenes at every stage of the deployment:
- it actively participates in the communication towards local elected officials, professionals and the general public on these operations;
- during the phases of deployment, it collects and instructs the claims of viewers through its call center;
- it oversees the resolution of the problem by operators if the interference comes from the 4G 800 MHz. A professional intervenes, most often to insert a filter in the reception of the TNT facility.
The TV reception is therefore guaranteed for each viewer. The full cost of interventions is supported by mobile operators.

B. Prepare the next World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC)
In 2012, we have drawn the immediate consequences of the WRC-12. In 2014, the delegations will develop first arbitrations of WRC-15. In 2013, national positions must be taken.

One of the challenges of this Conference will be the question of the future of the 700 MHz band. In France, it is now assigned to audiovisual. Since the debates on the first digital dividend, five years ago, the terms of the problem have been well known: the use of mobile Internet is expected to grow regularly in the coming years to meet the expectations of very mobile broadband. But this demand for broadband is common to all sectors: the audiovisual sector wants to keep these frequencies to offer new services: generalization of high definition, introduction of ultra high definition or 4K for example. And Government services, such as those of the Ministry of the Interior, also want to access services such as video for safety services.

In this debate, three ideas seem inevitable:
- there is not enough spectrum available under 1 GHz to satisfy fully each need;
- France is not an island, and it will have to act in harmony with its Western European neighbors;
- Europe will have to play an important role.

ANFR, as it manages the entire spectrum and guaranties technical neutrality, is coordinating the preparatory work at the national and international levels. ANFR, which is already contributing to the preparation of the next WRC, is involved in various entities in CEPT and UIT involved in this process and is bringing its technical expertise to the Government so that a decision can be taken in the best conditions.
ANFR is also an active member of the RSPG ad hoc group, which will provide recommendation to European Commission on WRC issues and on the identification of 1200 MHz for wireless broadband.

C. Facilitate the deployment of the 6 new DTT channels
Since December 12, 2012, 25% of the French population can access 6 new HD channels with their DTT HD TV sets. Free to air TV is no longer limited to generalist channels. Every French citizen, and not only the ones with cable, satellite or IPTV subscriptions, will be able to watch specialized channels on areas such as sports, travels, diversity and so on by 2015.

The years to come will see more of the French population covered by the new HD DTT channels.
The Agency, together with the CSA, has the mission to assist viewers in solving their TV reception problems through its call center and its dedicated website, "www.recevoirlatnt.fr", in collaboration with local aerial installers. If necessary, it will grant funding provided by the State to viewers who have lost DTT reception.

What are the expected evolutions as far as new ways of sharing spectrum are concerned? What are their consequences on spectrum management?

First, it is important to recall that spectrum sharing is already a reality with short range devices operating under a general authorization on a non interference and non protection basis. This is the case for Wifi in the 2.45 GHz and 5 GHz bands. This is also the case of all applications using ultra wide band devices which are sharing spectrum thanks to a very low power density. UWB technology was also used in sectors such as automobile and aeronautics.

What about Licensed Shared Access (LSA)?

The objective of an LSA approach is to facilitate the introduction of additional users operating with individual spectrum rights of use in specific bands and on a shared basis with an incumbent user, thus allowing predictable quality of service for all rights holders. These arrangements will need sufficient flexibility in order to account for national particularities, in relation to the administration of spectrum.

LSA could be introduced as a regulatory approach to release spectrum. In addition to conventional planning methods, cognitive radio technologies and their capabilities (geolocation databases, sensing, etc.) could be taken into account as enablers for sharing under the LSA approach.

ANFR engineers are actively participating in European works, at the ECC level for instance, on this issue, which is still in its early stages.

700 MHz band: what are the stakes and constraints?

World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC) 2012 decided that for the Region 1 the 694-790 MHz band will be allocated to mobile service co primary with broadcast services, this allocation becoming effective after WRC-15.

The issues at stake in the preparatory works for the WRC-15 are each tied to technical and negotiated matters. The possible refinement of the lower band edge (694 MHz) is one issue up for debate during the preparatory works. The second stake is the identification of a harmonized channelling arrangement, that is to say, the uplink and downlink bands. Finally, technical matters such as sharing studies between mobile and DTT at 694 MHz and the consequence of this on the necessary guard band are also to be clarified through the preparatory works for the WRC-15.

Regarding the choice, and its consequences, between IMT and broadcast, WRC was the starting point. The next steps are European decisions and national arbitrages.

2013 will be the year of public exposure to electromagnetic fields in France (ANSES report, Abeille Bill…): what is the role of ANFR as far as exposition control is concerned?

First, the Agency has no sanitary or health prerogatives, its expertise and missions only rely on technical matters.
The Agency monitors the respect by radiocommunication network operators of the public exposure to electromagnetic fields limits. The legal limits are the ones of a 1999 European Recommendation. Besides, by Law, the Agency has to make an inventory of "atypical" points, that is, the points where the exposure is significantly above the national average (while still below the limits). ANFR also elaborates the protocol used to measure the public exposure to electromagnetic fields. ANFR is also in charge of devices monitoring (phones, smartphones, tablets…). We insure that DAS limits (2 W/kg) are respected. We also check if the necessary information is properly provided to consumers.

2013 will indeed be the year of public exposure to electromagnetic fields. It began with the Bill introduced by MP Ms. Abeille from the Environmentalist Party. This Bill was forwarded to the Parliament Economic Commission for further analysis.
In 2013, we will publish our report on technical experiments which were lead in France to assess the possibility to reduce public exposure to electromagnetic fields due to mobile operators antennae without decreasing coverage and quality of service. Such experiment is a world premiere until now. 2013 will also be the year when ANSES, the French sanitary authorities, publishes its new report on the sanitary effects of such a field.

The Agency is a neutral, technical expert in that area. By participating in public meetings, advising elected officials and also the general public through its website Cartoradio, the Agency participates in turning this potential concern into a serene public debate. Finally, in 2013 we will provide a mobile version of Cartoradio, with the location of all mobile based-stations and the results of more than 26,000 field measures.

The ANFR organizes an international Conference on June 26 and 27 2013 entitled "Spectrum & Innovation": what is it about?

The Conference "Spectrum and Innovation" was instigated by Ms. Fleur Pellerin, delegated Minister in charge of Small businesses, Innovation and Digital Economy. We want the Conference to be a major event in 2013 for the digital economy sector in general and radiofrequencies in particular. The objective is to show to a large audience of professionals from the digital economy how spectrum is key to their sector and how this resource is crucial to economic growth in the coming years.

Different themes will be dealt with: how mobility is shaping our society and stimulating innovation, how radiofrequencies constitute a growth leverage for industry and small businesses, or even the spectrum needs for 2020. To debate on these subjects only experts in their fields have been chosen. The Conference will also be a chance to listen to influential and renowned speakers: Ministers, European and foreign institutions officials, renowned academics and business leaders (BBC, Bouygues Telecom, Cisco, Eutelsat, France Télévisions, Free Mobile, IBM, M6, NRJ Group, Orange, Qualcomm, Renault, SFR, TDF, TF1…).

We expect these two days to shows us what exciting new developments can be in store in the coming years. The Conference will prove how spectrum can foster innovation, growth and job creation.

Biography

Gilles BRÉGANT was born in Chambery in September 1963. He graduated from Ecole Polytechnique (1986) and from Telecom ParisTech (1988). Following an 8-year-career at France Telecom research center, Gilles Brégant was appointed technical adviser to the Minister in charge of Research (1996-1997). He had to coordinate international projects and themes in relation with information technology. He then worked for the department of trade and industry as deputy director in charge of Prospective. He was appointed secretary general of the ministerial task force "Digital Economy" (2001-2005). He was then appointed Technical Director of Conseil supérieur de l'audiovisuel (the French Media Regulator) in 2005. Gilles Brégant is the CEO of ANFR since 2011.

Published in COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGIES No. 90, 2nd Quarter 2013

Contact
COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGIES
Sophie NIGON
Managing Editor
s.nigon@idate.org

3Jul/13Off

Mobile and Online Payment

Julien GaudemerJulien GAUDEMER

Consultant at IDATE


Opportunities for telcos:
NFC & carrier billing

OTT players and telcos have been involved in the payment market for several years already, having designed their own payment systems.

On the one hand, most OTT players have an internal payment system allowing users to pay for virtual or physical goods directly on their platform. Telcos, on the other hand, have developed carrier-billing services that allow users to pay through their phone bill. This market segment is still growing and generates a significant volume of transactions. IDATE estimates the worldwide carrier- billing market to be 15 billion EUR in 2012 and expects it to reach 22 billion EUR in 2017. The internal payment systems of the large OTT players – Google, Apple and Facebook – generated about 10.5 billion EUR of virtual goods sales worldwide in 2012 (for these three players). Amazon generated 45 billion EUR of worldwide virtual and physical goods sales in 2012. These figures include payment card transactions, carrier-billing transactions and their payment system transactions. In addition, the PayPal payment system generated 73 billion EUR of transactions worldwide in 2012.

Overall e-commerce market estimated by IDATE at 789 billion EUR in 2012

Such figures, however, have to be taken in comparison with the overall e-commerce market, estimated by IDATE at 789 billion EUR in 2012. Furthermore, carrier billing remains a limited payment system as users can only pay small amounts of money and mainly for virtual goods. Hence, some telcos are trying to extend their payment activity to remote online payment systems, of the likes of PayPal; one such is Deutsche Telekom with its ClickandBuy system. In addition, telcos and the large OTT players are seeking to have in-store payment, in addition to online payment.

Positioning of telcos on the main payment services

NFC services, Carrier Billing, Mobile payment and bank account

Source: IDATE

The in-store payment market is still led by ‘plastic’ payment cards and cash payments, but some new payment systems are progressively being introduced at the point-of sale: NFC mobile payment, barcode or QR code mobile payment or payment with a mobile bank account, the latter in developing countries. Non-NFC payment systems are generally used by specific retailers, such as Starbucks, for internal use, except for PayPal introducing its payment system in-store through various non-NFC techniques. The NFC mobile payment system is still in its early stages; the number of users was estimated by IDATE to be 5 million worldwide in 2012, generating 1 billion EUR of transactions and likely to reach 141 million users in 2017 with 51 billion EUR of transactions.

5 million NFC mobile payment system users worldwide generating 1 billion EUR of transactions – in 2017 these figures will represent respectively 141 million user with 51 billion EUR of transactions

These figures should be compared with the number of payment cardholders – more than
4 billion. NFC-enabled phones are increasingly available among the smartphones currently for sale, allowing 248 million users to be equipped with an NFC phone in 2013, worldwide, according to IDATE research. As for NFC mobile payment services, OTT players and telcos are currently involved in a fierce battle. On the one hand, the OTT players are providing services on their own, or with a limited number of partners, avoiding banks and telcos (and thus obviating intermediate costs. Telcos, on the other hand, are setting up partnerships with banks and other telcos to provide a unique telco mobile payment application. The business model of NFC-payment application is mainly advantageous to banks and payment systems (as with Visa or MasterCard); it is not a gold mine for telcos, with their fees from SIM rental, or OTT players. In fact, telcos and OTT players may generate more revenue from services associated with the payment process than with payment itself.

Loyalty programmes – couponing sytems – transportation: such services on a 'mobile wallet' may generate extra revenues for telcos or OTT players

The services related to payment are usually loyalty programmes, couponing systems or transportation. The integration by telcos or OTT players of such services on a ‘mobile wallet’ may generate revenue from, for instance, retailers or consumer brands. Some telcos even launched these related services before launching their payment solution. This was the case with the UK telco O2; it launched a multi-brand loyalty programme that now already attracts five million users. Google provides its NFC mobile payment application Google Wallet along with the coupon application Google Offers or the pushed suggestion application Google Shopper. The adoption of NFC technology on mobile devices by consumers will thus probably be facilitated more by the development of these related applications than by the payment application alone. However, related applications require partnerships between telcos or OTT players and retailers, and the design of user-friendly applications that may integrate multi-brand couponing system or loyalty programmes.

This is an excerpt of our insight "Mobile and Online Payment" being a part of our ongoing monitoring service Telco vs OTT watch

24Jun/13Off

LTE World Summit – The 700 Mhz Band

Frédéric Pujol, Head of the radio technologies & spectrum practice, IDATEFrédéric PUJOL
Head of the radio technologies & spectrum practice, IDATE

IDATE reveals Latest
World LTE Market research

 

Sustained growth expected to hit 915 million LTE subscribers worldwide by the end of 2016, and the first billion will be exceeded during 2017.

IDATE, leading analysts and European Internet thinktank, today announced the main trends shaping the world’s mobile markets: networks, devices and services. At the LTE World Summit in Amsterdam (June, 24-26) IDATE provides its latest analyses and forecasts for the world LTE market, and insight into the 700 MHz issue.

World LTE Market forecasts

By the end of 2016, IDATE’s forecast predicts more than 915 million LTE subscriptions worldwide. Asia-Pacific is expected to represent a sizeable 41.6% of the total, North America 21.6%, Africa/Middle East 7.5%, Eastern Europe 4.9% and Western Europe 15.8%.

LTE is now mainstream with major deployments in every geographical area. The TD-LTE ecosystem is still waiting for a decision from China and can anticipate seeing the first LTE Advanced networks during the second half of this year. The 700 MHz band with the APT band plan has already been allocated in countries such as Australia and Japan with intense regulatory activity expected in Europe, Middle East, Africa and Latin America around this new frequency band.

LTE subscribers worldwide (in thousands): Ranking by country at 2016

World LTE forecasts

Source: IDATE, LTE Watch Service, March 2013

The 700 MHz band: A new harmonised frequency band for LTE?

With IDATE’s latest report addressing the 700MHz band issue, this question for future usage of our mobile services must be considered.

The growth of mobile broadband traffic is putting pressure on mobile networks and is driving the need for more spectrum in sub-1 GHz frequency bands for LTE and LTE-Advanced networks. Harmonisation across many geographical areas is crucial as it would enable significant economies of scale for LTE devices and would facilitate international roaming. The first Digital Dividend has already provided new spectrum for the mobile sector. Notably, the 700 MHz band in the USA and the 800 MHz band in Europe are today used for commercial LTE services.

Following the 2012 World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC-12), the 700 MHz now appears the most promising option for a harmonised frequency band across Asia-Pacific, Europe, Middle East, Africa and Latin America. IDATE anticipate further discussions at WRC- 15 and technical conditions have to be defined in Europe before then.

First and second Digital Dividends, worldwide

first and second digital dividend by geographical area

Asia-Pacific taking th lead in digital dividends

The Asia-Pacific region is taking the lead in this field and has already defined the ‘APT band plan’ which is likely to be adopted in Latin America, Africa, Middle East and Europe. This plan is not compatible with the US plan, which was defined before the 2008 auction and does not allow any compatibility or roaming for future LTE handsets. The 700 MHz band with the APT band plan could become a harmonised frequency band for LTE worldwide.

The 700 MHz band corresponds to the first Digital Dividend in the USA and in Asia-Pacific, whereas it could become the second Digital Dividend in the EMEA region. At WRC-12, African and Middle Eastern countries requested that the 694-790 MHz spectrum be allocated for mobile broadband services.

Europe should not make the same mistake as it did with the 800 MHz band

Many observers insist that Europe should not make the same mistake as it did with the 800 MHz band - where the auctions took place without coordination leading to undesirable early starts in some countries with a limited range of compatible devices. The harmonisation process in Europe should be clear with precise technical parameters and a realistic roadmap taking into account the timetable of existing broadcasting services. 2020 seems to be a realistic target for the launch of LTE services in the 700 MHz band in Europe, but some countries, such as France and perhaps Germany, are already planning to organise auctions as soon as 2015 even though the spectrum will only be available at a later date.

Public safety networks want superior broadband services

Public safety networks, which want to support mobile broadband services, are also starting to use parts of the 700 MHz band in the USA and the UAE have already allocated spectrum for their use earlier this year. Discussions are under way in Europe to address this question.

Innovative auction format in USA

In the USA, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has suggested an innovative auction format, called ‘incentive auctions’. The objective is to change the use of UHF band (470-700 MHz) starting with the 600 MHz band and to enable new services on a licensed basis. The process would start with a reorganisation of the UHF band and a re-allocation for licensed mobile services, such as 3G and LTE.

Digiworld by IDATE Related Publications

Just published:

 

Digiworld Yearbook 2013 (May 2013)

Innovation searching for the digital gold mines

This latest DigiWorld Yearbook provides you, as always, with reference data and the analyses of IDATE experts of the most vital trends on the markets of telecoms, the Internet and digital media.

The 700 MHz frequency band (June 2013)

This insight focus on the adoption of the APAC plan for the 700 MHz plan. Will this frequency band become an harmonised one? Will Europe adopt this plan and benefit from the device ecosystem? Which timescale?

 

Soon published:

 

DigiWorld Economic Journal: C&S No.90, 2nd quarter 2013(June 2013)

The radio spectrum: A shift in paradigms?

Edited by J. Scott MARCUS, Gérard POGOREL & Frédéric PUJOL
Demand for the use of the radio spectrum is constantly and rapidly growing, not only as a means of carrying Internet traffic, but also for new or expanding use by the military, public protection and disaster relief, at the same time that more traditional applications such as aeronautical, maritime, and radio astronomy remain. Is spectrum policy entering a trackless wilderness, or can a new direction and a new set of paradigms be expected to emerge?

two exclusive interviews :

- Gilles BRÉGANT, CEO of ANFR (French national spectrum agency)

- Paul E. JACOBS, Qualcomm's Chairman & CEO Read the interview

14May/13Off

Africa and Middle East LTE forecasts

Frédéric Pujol, Head of the radio technologies & spectrum practice, IDATE
Frédéric PUJOL
Head of the radio technologies & spectrum practice, IDATE


70 million LTE subscribers for Africa and Middle East in 2016

As an official partner of LTE MENA 2013, IDATE delivers its latest insights about the LTE Market in Africa and Middle East.

LTE is gaining momentum: by 2016, there will be a total of 916 million LTE subscriptions worldwide. Our forecasts regarding Africa and Middle East are for 68 million LTE subscriptions at the end of 2016.

World LTE market : LTE deployments stepping up

• We expect that, by the end of 2013, a significant portion of LTE devices will support both FDD and TDD duplex modes. TD-LTE deployments in India, China and many other countries in the Asia-Pacific, Latin American, and Middle East regions and, to a lesser extent, Europe will fuel this growth.

• We anticipate that more than 80% of LTE devices will also support 3G and, in most cases, 2G in 2014.

• A limited number of LTE devices will support Mobile WiMAX in order to facilitate smooth transition for operators switching to TD-LTE.

Middle East & Africa : 70 million LTE suscribers by 2016

• The first LTE commercial services were launched in South Africa, Tanzania and Namibia in 2H 2012.

• Saudi Arabia: the three MNOs – Etisalat-Mobily, Zain Saudi Arabia and Saudi Telecom Company (STC) – launched LTE services in 2011. They were slowed down by the lack of compatible smartphones.

• Our forecasts are for 68 million LTE subscriptions at the end of 2016 in the countries of the Middle East and Africa for a revenue of 20 billion Euro.

Africa Middle East LTE Subscribers forecasts (thousand)

Africa & Middle East LTE subscriptions by 2016

Source: IDATE

Frédéric PUJOL
Head of Mobile & Spectrum Practice at IDATE
f.pujol@idate.org

> More information about LTE MENA 2013 Event

> More information on Africa and Middle East LTE forecasts

7May/13Off

World Telecom Services

MANERO Carole
Carole MANERO
Project Leader, Digiworld by IDATE

Global telecom services market to reach over €1,200 billion in 2015

“We have observed that, overall, telecom services are recovering more slowly than the economy as a whole,” reports Carole Manero, head of IDATE’s Telecom Players & Markets report.

Montpellier, 7 May 2013 - IDATE reveals the findings of its world telecom services watch. After a setback in 2009 and very slight growth in 2010, the global market has been inching back to a more solid recovery since 2011, growing by a modest 2.7% in 2012. This translates into telecom services revenue of €1,115 billion for the year.

Now in a recovery phase, telecom markets in advanced countries are proving somewhat resilient, whereas in fast developing markets the increase in volume is so steady that the ripple effect far outweighs any structural obstacles. This phenomenon is telling of a mature industry now driven more by demographics than economics. In Africa/the Middle East, for instance, the drop in regional GDP in 2009 (-6%) and its rebound in 2010 (+16%) had very little impact on telecom services growth rates which remained very high both years: 8% and 9%, respectively.

World telecom services market - 2012

World telecom services market revenue by type and region

Source : Digiworld by IDATE

Majority mobile access

According to IDATE, the number of mobile customers worldwide should top the 8 billion mark in 2017 (+28.0% in 5 years).

• The number of Internet subscribers will grow more strongly (+37.3 % between 2012 and 2017, +6.5% per year on average), reaching 1 billion by the end of 2017.

• Traditional landlines continue to loose ground in the face of VoIP and mobile.

The spread of broadband

According to IDATE, the number of fixed broadband subscribers is expected to reach 957 million worldwide by 2017, for a penetration rate of 14% of the population. The number of 4G mobile subscribers should experience strong growth.

Two major factors will play in favour of the spread of broadband:

• The success of bundled offers (fixed telephony, VoIP, TV, mobile telephony) and the appetite for video applications.

• The investment of telecom operators in the migration of their infrastructures to mobile or fixed broadband.

Revenues from telecom services

According to IDATE, the global revenues from telecom services will grow from 1,115 billion in 2012 to 1,286 billion in 2017, representing an average annual growth of 2.9% in 5 years.

• Revenues from mobile services will grow by 18.7% between 2012 and 2017 (+3.5 % per year on average), reaching 779 billion EUR in 2017.

• Revenues associated with data transmission and Internet will grow more strongly (+32.8% between 2012 and 2017, i.e. +5.8% per year on average), to reach 329 billion EUR in 2017

• The turnover of fixed telephony will continue to decline significantly (-15.9% between 2012 and 2017, i.e. a decline of 3.4% per year on average), to be at 177 billion EUR in 2017.

Scalability of operators in emerging countries, even if the global top three remains unchanged since 2007

A single change in the ranking of European operators: Telefonica overtook Deutsche Telekom in 2011: now the leading European operator, the Spanish group ranks fourth in the world.

Chinese operators regularly win places in the world rankings

Vimpelcom gained fifteen places in 2011 : Owing to the acquisition of a large part of the shares of Orascom Telecom and Wind, VimpelCom moved from 34th place in 2010 to 19th in the world in 2011

Several operators from industrial countries "drop out": The Dutch KPN and Canadian ECB fell back by five places in two and a half years and drop out of the top 20

Classement des principaux opérateurs télécoms

Selon leur chiffre d'affaires au 1er semestre 2012 (milliards EUR)
World telecom operators ranking according to revenues end 2012

Source : Digiworld by IDATE

Five operators in the top twenty worldwide for over 50% of their turnover outside their domestic market:

• Among them, three European operators...

- Vodafone: global operator widely present in Europe, Asia and Africa

- Telefónica: with a widespread presence in Latin America and in some European countries (UK, Germany, Czech Republic, Slovakia)

- Deutsche Telekom: present in Central and Eastern Europe and in several Asian countries

•...and two operators from developing countries:

- America Móvil: present mainly in Latin America (plus participation in Europe acquired in 2012)

- Vimpelcom: already present in Central Asia, with a new presence in Africa and Europe (Italy) thanks to the deal with the Naguib Sawiris group

Carole MANERO
Chef de projet, IDATE
c.manero@idate.org

More information about World Telecom Services