20Mar/150

Nouveau cycle de conférences de prospective numérique sur les enjeux de l’Internet, de la télévision et des télécoms à 2025

logo DWFuture generique 2015

A l’occasion de la sortie de la nouvelle édition de son DigiWorld Yearbook, l’IDATE présente son nouveau cycle de conférences de prospective numérique sur les enjeux de l’Internet, de la télévision et des télécoms à 2025 !

La première session DigiWorld Future  se déroulera le 16 juin au Palais Brongniart, à Paris,  dans le cadre du Festival Futur en Seine en partenariat avec la Ville de Paris et Cap Digital.

A partir des analyses des experts de l’IDATE, les débats seront animés par Marjorie Paillon, Journaliste, Tech 24, Philippe Escande, Rédacteur en Chef, Le Monde et Gilles Babinet, avec les contributions exceptionnelles de :

sebastienbazin lowaxellelemaire lowMaurice Levy lowfrederic mazzella lowrichardstephaneOROUSSAT low

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

addcalendarbutton

6Aug/13Off

Next Gen TV: OTT and on-demand services

Gilles Fontaine

Gilles FONTAINE

Deputy Managing Director
Director of the Business Unit TV & Digital Content Business Unit, IDATE

The video distribution chain is evolving. Traditional programming models have been turned on their head (shortened release windows; Netflix releasing all episodes of a series all at once); video consumption on tablets is growing, before connected TVs really take off; and linear TV is relying on social networking faced with the growing strength of Internet platforms with a native specialisation in personalised recommendations.

Evolution in action

The various categories of player are seeing their historical models under threat. Cable and IPTV network operators have had to review their content distribution strategies. Some (Comcast) are strengthening their offerings to compete with OTT services, while others (Telecom Italia) are offering as a minimum a combination of linear television and on-demand services without quality of services guarantees. Television channels, whose core business is aggregation, want to keep their added value in a climate of growing on-demand. On the one hand, the major free channels are looking to promote live events to maintain the link with their mass audience; on the other hand, pay-TV services are introducing VOD to increase their attractiveness and are also investing in exclusive rights.

VOD service revenue worldwide

Fragmentation before convergence?

The growing number of offerings and players coming onto the video market is leading to fragmentation. New players, from the Web and also consumer electronics manufacturers, are coming out with new free or paid services that fi ll market segments ripe for exploitation, such as subscription-based VOD services, which compete with pay-TV, and ad-supported premium programming, which competes with the catch-up TV services of free channels.
The lines between linear services and on-demand services are likely to blur with the advent of mixed services that combine linear (or relinearised) television and directly competing on-demand programming. Fragmentation is also occurring due to the proliferation of proprietary ecosystems that are breaking away from the traditional ‘standardisation’ of television distribution and reception. In an effort to both promote their proprietary devices and to exploit customer loyalty, TV manufacturers and developers of mobile phone, tablet and connected TV operating systems are seeking to create their own ecosystems.
However, this fragmentation should be reversed in the medium term as a few distribution platforms start to dominate, offering the major content services and differentiating themselves by the quality of experience delivered to their customers. We should see the situation return to something like the traditional television model, where the various distributors are generally offering the same services, but packaged differently.

We can therefore identify three opposing visions for the long-term evolution of video content distribution:

  • The traditional model of packaging access and content together: Using an intelligent network equipped with a smart box, telcos and cablecos distribute packages that they have negotiated with content service providers or directly with the producers.
  • The self-supply model: Strong-brand content services use the open Internet to reinforce or re-establish a direct link with consumers.
  • The digital store model: E-commerce sites offer all content and make it available to consumers through recommendation and personalisation engines.

Long-term growth outlook for on demand television services

What impact will we see on the market?

While digitisation will bring more growth to certain developed markets, the next decade will show a marked decline in linear television revenue in the video sector, and a corresponding increase in new on-demand services. For the incumbent audiovisual operators, their capacity to generate revenue from these new services will dictate whether they can sustain their levels of turnover. They will, for all that, only find growth opportunities in emerging markets.

TV: the top on-demand service market in 2022

About the Digiworld Yearbook

While digitisation will bring more growth to certain developed markets, the next decade will show a marked decline in linear television revenue in the video sector, and a corresponding increase in new on-demand services. For the incumbent audiovisual operators, their capacity to generate revenue from these new services will dictate whether they can sustain their levels of turnover. They will, for all that, only find growth opportunities in emerging markets.

digiworld yearbook 2013
197 pages that deliver the finest market insights from IDATE experts who track the changes at work in the globe’s telecom, Internet and media industries throughout the year.

the DigiWorld Yearbook is published in English and French and available in print and PDF format. An iPad edition, developed by Forecomm, is also available.

The 2012 edition can be downloaded for free
The 2013 edition is available for purchase. Print: €99.99, incl. VAT; PDF and iPad: €54.99, incl. VAT

 

  • You can have a look at the digiworld yearbook 2013, purchase it or even download the 2012 version for free at : www.digiworld.org/yearbook/
19Jul/13Off

Connected TV: Key partnerships

Jacques BajonJacques Bajon

Head of "Video Distribution" Practice

Towards consolidation of the fragmented connected TV platform market

Securing partnerships:
content – device, device – broadcaster, software platform – device.

Inside television’s new environment, veteran TV players and new entrants alike are working to secure a slew of cooperation agreements: content – device, device – broadcaster, software platform – device. The momentum created by partnerships initiated by content providers is picking up, devices are an increasingly integrated part of service plans, and we expect to start seeing a consolidation of today’s fragmented connected TV platform market.

Content meets devices: OTT gathering steam

Although we have seen a string of agreements between TV broadcasters and device suppliers over the past several months, it is OTT video providers that are the most likely to move viewers beyond the confines of watching videos on a computer, by taking their solutions to the TV set and, more widely, to all of the screens in the home. We are nonetheless seeing regional differences emerge, along with some examples that could be worth emulating. In Asia, for instance, TV broadcasters are managing to join forces on aggregated OTT platforms: in South Korea with Pooq TV and in Japan with Motto TV. On a smaller scale, this type of partnership also exists in the United States with Hulu (Plus) and in the UK with the BBC’s iPlayer.

Also worth mentioning is the presence of two of the leading viral video sites, Dailymotion and YouTube, on smart (i.e. connected) devices the world over.
American giants continue to make inroads into international markets – and especially Netflix which operates in 40 countries, including North America, Europe (the UK, Ireland, Scandinavia) and Latin America – while newcomer HBO Nordics has set up shop in Norway, Denmark, Finland and Sweden.
Meanwhile Amazon, which operates in North America under its own brand, and in Germany and the UK through its more than 2 million LOVEFILM subscribers, recently pulled out of the Scandinavian market.

A selection of smart TV alliances and standardization initiatives

Smart TV alliances

Source: IDATE, July 2013

Devices an increasingly integral part of pay-TV providers’ service line-up

We are entering a new era of smart TV – also referred to as connected TV – one where devices are an increasingly integral part of pay-TV providers’ solutions.
The first partnerships that allow users to do away with a set-top box have come on the market. These are helping boost the concept of the “Operator as an App” that emerged with smart TV hardware for secondary TV sets in the home. Pay-TV providers are moving their distribution to the cloud to deliver more flexible solutions in an increasingly multi-screen environment.
Meanwhile, hybrid devices are allowing specialists from the world of broadcast TV to enhance their offering with complementary OTT services, and so acting to some degree as the return path that broadcasting networks lack.

Is it merger & acquisition time for smart TV platforms?

The battle for control of the user interface will only accelerate. Device makers, pay-TV providers and the top software companies will move increasingly into some form of coopetition.
Straight-up competition between proprietary platforms will be the norm at first, but players will move gradually towards a more cooperative approach, and no doubt a series of agreements as mergers begin to occur.
The top software companies, which are more apt to focus their R&D efforts on their core business and able to leverage their app stores, are also expected to make real inroads into this market. Though still rather marginal players, the Android TV, iOS TV and Microsoft Windows TV systems could become central components in the future ecosystem.

This is an excerpt of our insight Connected TV: key partnerships being a part of our ongoing monitoring service Connected TV distribution Watch

10Jul/13Off

Smart Home

MICHAUD LaurentLaurent Michaud
Head of Consumer Electronics & Digital Entertainment Practice at IDATE


Challenges of Consumer Electronics of Entertainment and Home automation

Despite tough economic times, the consumer electronics sector continues to deliver innovations, both technological and in the realm of usage, which have caught on with consumers. They have demonstrated, if not that value could shift to services and software, at the very least that the sector can rely on a new set of market dynamics in the medium term.

Consumers’ love of mobile devices, smartphones and tablets has not waned. According to IDATE, more than 1.5 billion smartphones and 470 million tablets will be sold in 2017, compared to just over 640 million and 114 million, respectively, in 2012. This popularity can be attributed to several factors:


These devices allow users to make calls and send text messages anywhere, anytime. So they satisfy the needs of that portion of the population that wants to be connected at all times, and even have the potential to create that need;


They give access to a huge selection of varied, simple, affordable and entertaining applications. Games are especially popular, so much so that the makers of handheld gaming devices are being hammered by this new competition. In the coming months and years gateways with other devices, and especially TV, will open up new opportunities – if not at the industrial level, most certainly in terms of fostering innovation;


They are easy to use, in particular thanks to touchscreen technology and the efforts being made by engineers, designers, developers and programmers – all of whom are aware that the user experience is key to coming out on top. Never before has it been so vital to gaining a competitive edge.


Computer vs. tablet sales, 2013-2017 (milion units)

Evolution of computer and tablet sales throughout 2017

Source: IDATE, 2013

So tablets are taking hold as central devices in the digital home. Poised to replace the personal computer, the tablet is expected to continue its rise in 2013 at a rate that was already being underestimated a few months ago. In the coming years, its popularity will be ensured by an expanded product line that includes “phablets” (phone tablets). The aim of this hybrid device is to target the larger, less wealthy section of the population. IDATE estimates that close to 2 billion tablets or phablets will have been sold between 2009 and 2017.

Companion devices, be it a tablet, a smartphone or phablet, act as second screens, or complements to users’ main screens. This relationship paves the way for a tremendous range of applications associated with television. Internet companies, media content providers, TV networks and other pay-TV package vendors will no doubt capitalise on these opportunities, if not to win back a portion of viewers who have moved to the Web, at least to deepen viewers’ relationship with their programmes.

As a result, the connected TV will be one of the cornerstones of the digital home. Like applications sold through app stores, managed and OTT interactive services could prove enough of a drawing card to persuade households to replace their old set ahead of schedule. This would be an ideal opportunity for manufacturers to have their OLED and Ultra HD technological breakthroughs adopted en masse, thanks to the appeal of having an internet-ready set. IDATE forecasts that standalone connected television sales will rise from 22 million in 2012 to 550 million in 2017.

Typical lifecyle of a television incorporating a new technology

Adoptance cycle of a television incorporating a new technology

Source : IDATE, Smart Home market insight, June 2013>

This fiercely competitive landscape provides the battleground for global dominance in the consumer electronics, telecommunications and internet sectors. Thanks to the programme begun in 2006, China is now a serious up-and-comer, moving in on American giants like Google, Apple, Amazon and Microsoft, as well as Japanese and South Korean CE titans.

The technological innovations fuelling the consumer electronics market both serve and inspire the home automation sector. A host of innovations were on display at the Consumer Electronics Show 2013 earlier this year. Although there was no lack of original ideas, it nevertheless remains that a new paradigm is taking hold and enabling the emergence of a segment long awaited by the housing industry, energy companies and users alike. Combining fixed electronic devices (IP boxes, set-top boxes and integrated technologies) with sensors, OLED displays, recognition tools, augmented reality, an internet connection, a WYSIWYG software interface, and more economical home security, energy management and personal home services solutions (for now). Management and remote control features using a mobile device provide increased flexibility and the ability to supply a tracking system that could be monetised.

This is an excerpt of our insight "Smart Home"

11Feb/13Off

Cord Cutting


Jacques Bajon

Head of "Video Distribution" Practice

Cordcutting: Is Europe ready?

 

Cord-cutting, which describes the phenomenon of traditional television services' customer drain, is at the heart of the new competence in the audiovisual landscape. IDATE recently published an in-depth market report dealing with this topic and it proposes a complete benchmark of new video offers in the United States and analyses the best practices. The study provides also conclusions on potential impacts of this phenomenon in Europe.

The phenomenon of cord-cutting can be regarded in a broader perspective of evolution in access to television and video services. This threat to the established MVPDs1 is in fact symptomatic of a broader set of upheavals in the television industry. Various factors contribute to these changes: the economic crisis, which fuels tensions surrounding the primary income of the established players (advertising and subscription); an underlying trend of on-demand video consumption and changing usage habits that threaten to shatter lucrative TV packaging schemes; the entry of Internet players who master these new usage habits and are a step ahead when it comes to user interfaces, a key element in the future.

The traditional television players – channels and distributors – are thus facing a scissor effect. TV channels are seeking alternative growth models that include enhanced B2B with distributors and entry into the online market to serve as a springboard for advertising growth. For their part, distributors are seeing Internet players encroach onto their networks, while rights holders and TV channels continually weigh the benefits of partnering with them. The instability is constant. For Jacques Bajon, report’s project manager: “The key issue at stake is this process of disintermediation, and the TV industry's inability to team up only reinforces the trend.”

In the United States, players' strategies are thus primarily defensive:

Rights holders and TV channels still hesitate between choosing traditional distributors and the new ones (i.e. Internet-based);

Distributors are attempting to retain their subscribers with multi-screen offerings and by focusing on the Internet access growth engine (itself a vehicle for disintermediation!) and – in a new trend – by working together.

Quarterly changes in video subscribers (net additions) of US MVPDs, Q1 2010 –
Q2 2012 (thousands subscribers)

Europe, with a subscription TV market that still has its growth drivers, may think that it is preserved from the tension across the pond, but its dependency on the US industry is twofold. Europe lags behind in many ways in terms of content and technology. It is dependent on US audiovisual products, and the entrants in the Internet market that master technology and interfaces come from the United States.

What is the solution? Risky changes.

Rights holders must make the release windows and network-centric agreements model suppler to make content available. In Europe, the production industry must structure itself without further delay. In Europe, and to a lesser extent in the United States, TV channels fund audiovisual production and thus play a video library management role that must be strengthened, as in the film industry.

TV packagers must do away with their lucrative but ossifying model of packaging channels and instead offer consumers what they want.

Distributors must distribute, whether over managed networks or the Internet, and they should be paid for this service (and not the contrary, which is currently the case for wireline operators).

OTT video services will continue to grow and influence the TV access market because this is what users are demanding: flexibility and richness of content offerings, prices (a monthly subscription to Netflix equals the purchase price of a DVD), "anywhere, any terminal" usage habits – unlike operators' segmented offerings, and user-friendliness (these new entrants usually offer much more accomplished consumption interfaces).


Jacques BAJON,
Head of  "Video Distribution" Practice

More information on our website about the in-depth market report dealing with this topic

About Jacques: He joined lDATE in November 2000, working as a Director of Studies. His assignments primarily involve strategic and sector-specific examination of the television/video and its distribution modes, from broadcast to telecoms/IP. He more specifically addresses digital delivery ecosystems and linked services. Jacques’s previous experience includes freelance analyst for the Eurostaf / Les Echos group, carrying out market research and analysis of media and telecommunications industry companies, in addition to gaining experience in market analysis working for Ericsson. Jacques holds a post-graduate research degree (DEA) in International Economics (Université Paris X Nanterre) , a Master in Strategic Management of Innovation (Toulouse Graduate School of Management), and followed a training session in Investments in Telecom Networks from Télécom ParisTech.

4Oct/12Off

World Television Market

LEBORGNE-Florence

Florence LE BORGNE-BACHSCHMIDT

Head of the TV & Digital content Practice, DigiWorld by IDATE

 

The penetration of digital television in TV households passes the 50% mark

 
Publication of the twenty-fifth edition of the “World Television Market” report, is an opportunity for IDATE’s Media team to put into perspective the fundamental changes in the audiovisual industry, in France, in Europe and worldwide. For Florence Le Borgne-Bachschmidt, "It is particularly important to put into context the transformational movements in television, which have never been greater than they are today, in order to measure the revolution taking place”. This report, founded on a very detailed database, provides key information (terrestrial TV, satellite, cable, IPTV, pay-TV etc.), for nearly 40 countries and 5 geographical areas.

TV access modes
According to IDATE, the number of TV households worldwide will reach 1.502 billion in 2016 (+9.4% in 5 years).

  • Cable will the remain the chief access channel but will gradually lose ground to satellite and IPTV which will account for 30.0% and 7.3% of TV households, respectively, at the end of 2016.
  • Despite the development of hybrid TV solutions, terrestrial TV will continue its decline and drop down to number three spot by 2016, with a roughly 26% share of the global market.
  • The development of hybrid solutions that combine live programming on broadcast networks (terrestrial and DTH) and OTT video services over the open Web is a key variable in the future development of the various TV access modes.

Digital inroads
According to IDATE, the penetration of digital TV households worldwide will come to 77.6% of TV households in 2016. Three factors in particular will shape the development of digital TV:

  • Governments’ ability to steer the digital switchover of national terrestrial broadcasting networks
  • Cable companies’ investments in upgrading their infrastructure
  • How popular IPTV and satellite pay-TV services are with TV households.

TV revenue
According to IDATE, the global TV industry’s revenue will come to €340.1 billion in 2012:

  • Pay-TV revenue will grow by 12.1% between 2012 and 2016, or by an average 2.9% annually.
  • Ad revenue will enjoy even stronger growth of 21.2% between 2012 and 2016.
  • Public financing/licensing fees will continue to increase significantly (+7% in 5 years).

Pay-TV providers going international

  • Pay-TV is nearing saturation in the world’s more developed TV markets. The emergence of new OTT video services on televisions and other connected devices increases the threat of cord-cutting.
  • For a great many pay-TV providers in the West, emerging markets therefore represent vital sources of future growth.

Florence LE BORGNE-BACHSCHMIDT
Head of the TV & Digital content Practice
f.leborgne@idate.org

> Executive seminar "Content in the Cloud" within the frame of the DigiWorld Summit 2012 – 14 November 2012

> More information about this study available on our website

21Mar/12Off

Connected TV Market

Jacques BAJON

Head of Distribution Video Practice at DigiWorld IDATE

In 2016, OTT video services on connected TV will represent 17% of the total OTT market and 1% of the global fixed video services market


The television sector is facing a profound restructuring, as players from formerly disparate sectors, such as TV, Internet and equipment vendors converge on the market. IDATE has decided to monitor the market trends affecting the market through a three level approach providing end user devices & video services market data, highlighting innovation pulses and key players’ moves. The following analyses are an extract of one of our monthly published World Connected TV Market Insights.

“In 2016, the VoD market for the TV will be dominated by Over-The-Top (OTT) offers. In Europe, we estimate the global market for OTT video services on connected TVs at EUR 2.4 billion in 2016, with Europe and North America representing respectively 17% and 54%”, says Jacques Bajon. “Managed network players - cable and IPTV providers, for instance – are holding one of the key drivers for the Connected TV market development. They can continue their strategy of service distribution or open massively their networks to over-the-top services giving a boost to their commercial offers.”

Global market for video services on connected TV
We estimate that the global market of services on connected TVs will reach EUR 2.4 billion in 2016. This market will represent 16.7% of the OTT video market and about 1% of the global fixed video services market. These figures correspond to our overall analysis of the deployment of connected TV services, which concluded that the conditions for the launch of new services are still not completely met in early 2012 and sets the likely date of the market take-off at 2015.

Evolution of the market of video services on connected TV worldwide, 2011-2016 (millions EUR)

Breakdown by service
We anticipate that paid services will play a leading role in the development of connected TV services. We are indeed currently nearing the end of a double phenomenon known as cord-cutting (in which consumers will combine free access to linear television via digital terrestrial and satellite with a fee-consumption via OTT services) and cord-shaving (in which consumers will scrap their paid cable and IPTV plans for low cost OTT offers or a limited consumption of VOD services). Globally, we believe that the paid services will represent 57% of the market for video services on connected TV.

Breakdown of the global market for video services on connected TV, 2016

With respect to advertising revenue, we believe that they will be primarily derived from the operation of premium programs. Consumption of short programs and of UGC contents is likely to remain largely limited to PCs, smartphones and tablets.

Geographical distribution
Given the pioneer position of the United States with respect to attractive OTT service offerings, we predict that they will remain the largest market for connected TV services, harbouring up to 50% of the total market.

Breakdown of the global market for video services on connected TV by region, 2016 

The impact on the global broadcasting market
We come to the conclusion that the overall development of OTT offerings, in particular on connected TV, will significantly affect the linear TV market, and in different proportions depending on the region.
In the US, we anticipate a decrease of this market, due in particular to the reduced rates of pay television in the wake of competition from OTT services. However, over the period, we expect a growth of the global market (both linear television and new services) at current currency values, but probably a decrease in real terms. We believe in particular that the market could shrink towards the end of the period.
We anticipate a more favorable development in Europe. On the one hand, in developed European markets, we believe there is still some growth potential for pay TV and that the level of prices will limit the impact of competition on linear TV offers. On the other hand, Central and Eastern European countries offer a high growth potential.

Outside these areas and Japan, the development of OTT offers, which will come later, will not weigh on the growth of the traditional broadcasting market over that period.

Compared growth rates of linear and new TV services

Jacques BAJON
Project Manager
j.bajon@idate.org

Visit our website for more information on this topic