27Mar/150

Il décolle ! Le marché du Serious Gaming en forte progression pour atteindre les 12 milliards d’Euros d’ici 2018.

L’innovation est au coeur des préoccupations des entreprises qui développent des Serious Games. Elle porte sur des aspects technologiques (accessoires, terminaux, interfaces, réseaux, logiciel et cloud), sur les contenus (gameplay, graphisme, stratégie éditoriale), et également sur les services d’accès aux SG (conditions d’accès, add-on, modularité de la plateforme, fonctionnalité sociales).

Cette progression du marché offre donc des perspectives très prometteuses aux développeurs de Serious Gaming (SG) sur le territoire français, comme le confirment les cinq sociétés que l'IDATE a invitées à collaborer à ce rapport : Daesign ; KTM Advance ; Groupe Interaction ; Manzalab  et Dassault Systèmes.
Aussi, sur la période, on observe une croissance à deux chiffres à partir de 2015 et un pic de croissance sur 2016-2017. Ce pic correspond à un phénomène d’accélération de l’adoption du SG comme outil de formation et d’information par des PME. Aujourd’hui, ces dernières commencent à vouloir adopter ces outils vendus sur étagère.

 

La formation initiale et continue représentera plus de deux tiers du marché en 2018

Le segment de marché de la formation initiale et professionnelle représente le premier segment de marché du SG. Ce segment offre l’avantage d’avoir des modèles économiques compris et acceptés des commanditaires, de la production à façon à l’acquisition de licences utilisateurs.

Pour rappel, en 2014, ce segment représentait plus de 60% du marché global. Il gagnera 10 point jusqu’en 2018.

À l’image du marché mondial, le pic de croissance concernera davantage les années 2016-2017.

 

Ainsi, Dans les trois années à venir, le défi des acteurs offrant leurs services dans le SG sera de convaincre les entreprises de plus de 500 salariés, soit près de 2 700 en France. Les experts de l’IDATE  s’accordent à dire que ce défi pourra être relevé tant les preuves du concept ont été faites auprès des grands comptes nationaux. Il s’appuiera  donc sur différents facteurs clés de succès :

 

 

 

Pour retrouver toutes les informations concernant l’étude Serious Gaming et les études associées, cliquez-ici

Plus d’informations sur l’expertises et les événements de l’IDATE sur :

www.idate.org          www.digiworldsummit.com          www.digiworldweek.com          www.gamesummit.pro

7Mar/13Off

Social Gaming: Trends & Markets

MICHAUD Laurent
Laurent Michaud
Head of Consumer Electronics & Digital Entertainment Practice at IDATE

By 2016, social games will account for nearly as 50% of the video game market

IDATE has just released its new study about social gaming: by the end of 2012 the social gaming market accounted for 36% of the online gaming market and 13% of the overall video game market. In 2016 its share is expected to rise to 46% of the online gaming market and 18% of the overall video game market. This video game market segment is entering the maturity phase. Its estimated revenues in 2012 were EUR 5.4 billion, which is expected to reach EUR 10.7 billion in 2016. Facebook is by a long shot the leading social gaming platform, with 235 million active gamers in August 2012.

World social gaming market, by geographical region (million EUR)

World social gaming market, by geographical region (million EUR)
Source: IDATE, Market Insight "Social Gaming", February 2013

The major players in the video game industry have been slow to enter the social games fray

The traditional video game industry players are showing a willingness to adapt to new consumption habits

Publishers are seeking to make their traditional games more "social". They are also making their games available through free-to-play. Game consoles such as Nintendo and Sony are integrating social functionality in their new versions (e.g., Wii U and Xbox 720): video chat to contact friends online, various ways to get in touch with players around the world and ask for help, etc.

Nevertheless, most of the major video game firms are not on Facebook

This might be because they have not truly grasped the importance of deploying their offerings on social networks, or, rather, that they prefer to wait cautiously until the market has reached a certain maturity before entering. It could also suggest that they simply would rather not risk positioning themselves in a sector in which the recipes for success differ in every respect from their traditional sector. Admittedly, a social game's success usually has more to do with its number of players than the quality of the game per se.
In other words, the fact that the big developers who have invested in social gaming rank relatively well in terms of MAU rankings does not necessarily put them ahead of the rest.

Social gaming as a means of attracting new users to console games

The strategy of the six big stakeholders on Facebook can be explained in several ways. They may be seeking to capitalise on a new market segment that represents a growth driver at first and which could become a business sector in its own right down the road. Electronic Arts reported in 2011 that ARPU from EA Sports apps on Facebook was USD 56, exceeding net income per user from its console games.
But social gaming is also a means of bringing in new users to console games. The vast majority of social games of the traditional industry players are in fact "light", social versions of their console games meant to entice players to take it a step further and discover the "real" game.

Presence on Facebook of the major 'traditional' video game publishers

Presence on Facebook of the major 'traditional' video game publishers
* through its subsidiary 2K Sports
** through its subsidiary Playdom
Source: IDATE, Market Insight "Social Gaming", February 2012

Project Manager Laurent Michaud

Laurent Michaud is the Head of Consumer Electronics & Digital Entertainment Practice. Laurent acts as project manager for market reports on the rise of Smart Home, Game, Music and Electronics. He adresses technological, industrial and strategic issues through a point of view of innovation. He provides his clients with expert technical-economic analysis of strategic issues relating to consumer electronics and entertainment.
l.michaud@idate.org

> More information available at: www.idate.org

6Dec/12Off

Crises and rebounds in the games industry

MICHAUD Laurent

Laurent Michaud

Head of consumer electronics & digital entertainment practice, IDATE

Each year IDATE conducts studies on video games and accompanies enthusiastic project developers who rub shoulders with a market that will make them no concessions. Laurent Michaud, Head of the Consumer Electronics & Digital Entertainment practice at IDATE shares it takes on this in the article below.

It is now nearly 12 years that I have observed the sector with the eyes of a player and economist. We have dealt with all the issues that have made the news: we are going to cover our third home console marketing campaign, in the early 2000s we studied massively multi-player games, the advent of video games on mobile phones, then Occasional Gamer, in-game advertising, the App Store phenomenon, Serious Gaming, cloud gaming, games on smart TV, social gaming... In the background, dematerialisation remains the common denominator for all of them.

Alongside these studies, we have helped nearly forty project carriers by providing expertise regarding the techno-economic feasibility of their games, the industrial positioning of their company, their internationalisation strategy, construction of their business model, design of their outline business strategy...

These 12 years in practice enable me to draw some conclusions on what we are experiencing today as a crisis in the growth of the on-line games sector and a more acute crisis that could become a reality for certain traditional actors (those who develop games on physical media).

Video gaming is in crisis and the companies affected are not the least known: Gameforge, BigPoint, Zynga, but also THQ, Sega, Turbine to name only those... and I am not mentioning the myriad of small companies not really known for the big hit, which were formed to develop games for mobile phones, tablets or on Facebook and which are struggling to obtain a return on quite modest investments in a market where supply is abundant and it is difficult to differentiate oneself.

What are the causes of this crisis, beyond the effects of increased competition? I count four:

1. The video game evolves in phases of growth and decline determined by the life cycle of the hardware. Game consoles register their activity in physical cycles of at least six years. We are currently experiencing a downward cycle, a transition phase between two generations of home consoles characterised by income from the sale of games for these machines down by 12% between 2011 and 2012 and by 20% for the turnover generated by console sales.

2. We observe massive player support for Free2Play on smartphones, tablets, social networks, in games on browsers or MMOs and soon on smart TVs. Controlled inflation of the price of games for home and handheld consoles maintains the income for this segment but basically players demonstrate to us that the model of the future is Free2Play, of which these are some eloquent examples:

  • The British studio BossAlien published CSR Racing and quickly recorded a monthly turnover of $12 million,
  • According one of its directors, the Norwegian studio Supercell recorded a turnover of $500,000 per day with Clash of Clans,
  • When there is no income, there is always the level of "monthly active users" that shows the attractiveness of games carried by the F2P model - 32 million for League of Legend from Riots Games (no profit conversion rates available), 50 million for Farmville 2 (with, according to observers, a conversion rate of around 2%).
  • An unprecedented wave of MMO games is passing from a subscription payment model to Free2Play: Aion from NC Soft, Age of Conan from Funcom, Star Wars, The Old Republic from EA, Gotham City Impostors from Warner Interactive, DC Universe from SOE, City of Heroes Freedom from NC Soft…

Not to subscribe to this model supported by a large majority of players may constitute a medium-term risk for publishers.

3. In the on-line games market segment the crisis generates its effect on the first generation of developer-publishers. After a successful first game, these companies have recorded considerable and sometimes dramatic growth as regards their income and size of workforce. They now encounter difficulties with their "second game" which struggles to achieve the support of players who had been seduced by the first. However, the on-line games market segment will continue to record a two-figure growth up until 2016. IDATE estimates that the on-line games market will increase from €15 billion at the end of 2012 to more than 23 at the end of 2016 and will eventually represent a little less than 30% of the global market which could rise to €60 billion. If the market continues to grow at that rate it is value creation that will very largely make up for value loss. This observation underlies reasoning on the, as yet inexhaustible, capacity of the Internet to allow innovative game experiences.

4. In the on-line games environment, the operational risk of a game rests synthetically on four elements: content, business model, technical services, marketing and communications. These four pillars necessary for success rest themselves on new skills: community management, collection, processing and analysis of usage data, business and pricing strategy, industrial intelligence... These tasks are often underestimated by development studios more inclined to create content than conceive its publishing, marketing etc.

Thus, the economic rule "adapt or perish" was never more true than today in the games industry, and never has this rule applied as rapidly as today. Production times for terminals are being reduced on many platforms (mobile phones, tablets, social networking and browsers): as a result, the "time to market" is very short as, at times, is the time that separates the developer from failure.

This statement is difficult to hear: the developer, as Peter Molyneux said so well in a recent interview on Games Industry International, "is not supposed to make games for money. He is also reluctant to talk about monetisation." The games sector is recent and, since the industrialisation of the development market segment in the mid-90s, the job of the studio has been to create a games experience, not to take on board its commercialisation, carry out its marketing or pricing. This role is still regularly seen as falling to the editor. Today you, large and small developers, should know that that era is past and that your job also consists in selling, if not in integrating upstream of the production chain some thoughts relative to the marketing of the game.

A few reasons for bounce-back

If the crisis is real, the video games sector knows how to rebuild its declining segments, renew entertainment experiences, innovate; blaze a trail beyond the beaten track. This character trait offers some grounds for hoping to see the sector rebound in the very short term.

Here are four good reasons for bounce-back:

1. The next generation of home consoles

I am not dealing at length with the arrival of new home consoles that will boost the industry and, in 2015, hardware included, represent 40% of its income.

2. The promise of games on mobile platforms

Neither am I referring in detail to what games represent on mobile platforms, smartphones and tablets that seem particularly well-behaved in terms of market and complementary, even symbiotic, uses. This segment will hold a share of some 15 % of the market up until 2016 as against some 11 % of the income accruing to games on handheld consoles.

I will, on the other hand, insist on my two crazes:

3. The smart TV game

The arrival of the television connection changes the conditions of use for this terminal. Potentially it introduces a level of interactivity that makes it no longer a passive-consumption device. The connection promises enriched experiences regardless of the nature of the content - audiovisual, social, commercial, entertainment or informative.
In this context, the video game could be an accelerator for the market development of interactive applications on smart TV. It will demonstrate its effectiveness by providing a convincing user experience (with an interaction-immersion accessory, voice recognition and motion detection), based on a viable business model.
Games on on-line TV already seem to be taking five directions:

i) The downloading of occasional games on the set-top box from the ISP. In France, Free offers such a service on its Revolution box in partnership with TransGaming:
ii) Games synchronised with live-broadcast audiovisual programmes. Visiware, (through its PlayAlong offer) synchronises the television viewer, who can be a virtual contestant, with more than 800 games and live-broadcast programmes worldwide.
iii) The deployment of an application used by the television manufacturer or by a third party such as Google: EA has just announced, and it went more-or-less unnoticed, that two of these occasional games were available on Samsung's smart TV and controllable by the South Korean company's Galaxy phones. These are Game of Life and Monopoly.
iv) Cloud gaming is a technology that can home-deliver streamed games via the Internet on a connectable TV. The games consoles were also quick in response as Gaikai, one of the most promising cloud gaming service providers was acquired by Sony Computer Entertainment in early July for 380 million USD.
v) Access to games via social networks: Facebook is a platform of omnipresent coverage, found on most connectable devices (tablets, smartphones and computers). It is also available on smart TV and will provide access to the games catalogue that it offers on computer.

These guidelines lead to or induce convergence, better collaboration between the television actors (channels, programme producers), telecommunications and Internet actors (Internet access and service providers), consumer electronics manufacturers and video games actors. It operates at the technological, content and economic level and in any event it opens a new market segment, especially with the arrival of EA.

4. The ubiquitous or continuous game

Today, one can distinguish three types of ubiquity in video games.

  • The first is a ubiquity of service: the ranking, challenges, friends' games list etc. are ubiquitous. We find this feature on Game Center or Facebook.
  • The second is a ubiquity attached to games. Boostr, developer and publisher of the Urban Rivals game with 25 million players, sets its strategy on ubiquity. This game is available on social networks, tablets, smartphones and on its website. I have single access available, which gives me the possibility of playing indiscriminately on any one of these four single platforms that I pick up according to my wants and the terminal that I have at hand. I also play Football Manager quite a lot, but I open a different game on each platform, which breaks the continuity of the game experience.
  • The third is a ubiquity carried by connected objects. This ubiquity took shape in October 2011 under the game name Activision Skylanders. This game is based on action figures equipped with NFC technology and interacting with the home console and the game. These small figures are placed on a pedestal and are recognised and displayed on the screen. They keep in memory the experience gained during the game until the next connection to another console. 30 million figures have been sold to date worldwide.

In conclusion, video gaming is experiencing successive crises, which, in the end, are technological and industrial adjustments related to its strong ability to innovate and recreate: to me these adjustments seem necessary for a sector that, finally, seems soon set to reach economic maturity.

Laurent Michaud
Responsable de la practice Digital Home & Entertainment, IDATE
l.michaud@idate.org

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