Senior Consultant, IDATE DigiWorld
Within the latest edition of its half-yearly updated observatory for superfast-broadband access, IDATE – world leading FTTx intelligence provider – announces the impressive milestone of 300 million subscriptions at mid-June 2015, for world consolidated. Furthermore, superfast technologies(1) represented nearly 38% of broadband access subscriptions at mid-2015, 8 points more than one year before.
FTTH/B is still the leading superfast broadband solution, far ahead of FTTx/D3.0, followed by VDSL
• FTTH/B represented 61% of FTTx subscriptions at mid-2015. Growth of FTTH/B subscriptions will continue until 2019, but at a lower pace than during 2014, year of real success in China.
• FTTx/D3.0 represented at June 2015, 27% of FTTx subscriptions. After two years of significant growth, proportion of FTTx/D3.0 on Superfast Broadband is stable
• VDSL, for its part, lagged behind, representing 12% of subscriptions at mid-2015 compared to 13% in June 2014
The regional breakdown is very heterogeneous
• No huge changes in the geographical predominance of APAC on the FTTH/B market.
• FTTH/B is also the main deployed technology in MENA. It was the case also in LATAM, but now it is meeting stronger competition from VDSL technologies in the region (Brazilian market).
• FTTx/D3.0 is still dominant in North America and is generally growing more rapidly than other technologies.
• There is considerable space for VDSL in Europe where incumbents still wish to optimise their copper networks.
(1) For the definition of superfast platforms we consider three main architectures: FTTH/B, VDSL and FTTx/D3.0 deployed by cable operators
The growth rate of FTTH/B subscriptions should continue to increase at an annual average rate of 10% until 2019
• The growth in the total number of FTTH/B subscribers will gradually decrease from 37% in 2014 to 6% in 2019: this is linked to the progressive maturity of the markets.
• By 2019, the share of FTTH/B subscriptions will represent 32% of total broadband market worldwide (to be compared to 22% at end 2014).
• FTTH/B is now deployed in all major regions in the world, at different levels: FTTH/B represents a great opportunity for countries where broadband is not widespread (Latin America, Africa and some countries in Asia-Pacific).
The take-up rate of FTTH/B worldwide will grow gradually from 32% at end-2015 to 34% by end-2019
Whilst regional disparities will persist, the ranking of leading regions will change:
• Eastern Europe will see its take-up rate grow from 30% to 41% from end-2015 to end-2019, much higher than in Western Europe, from 26% to 40% during the same period.
• In North America, the take-up rate will rise from 41% to 46% at end 2019.
• In Asia-Pacific, the take-up rate will grow thanks to the dynamism of China and new markets such as Indonesia, Kazakhstan and Vietnam.
• In Latin America, the adoption rate will be steady as FTTH/B is at is early stage and players will focus more on expanding coverage.
IDATE publishes a half-yearly updated FTTx observatory, gathering qualitative and quantitative data of 70 countries and +150 players – see details online